USDA Post Forecasts Egypt's MY 2015-16 Rice Exports to Increase Sharply on
Temporary Resumption of Exports
Nov 13, 2015
USDA Post forecasts
Egypt's MY 2015-16 (May - April) rice exports at around 400,000 tons, up about
60% from an estimated 250,000 tons in MY 2014-15, and unchanged from USDA's
official estimates. The increase is due to the government's resumption of
milled rice exports for six months effective October 4, 2015.
However, the
government requires exporters to pay an export fee of $255.43 per ton in
foreign currency that is exchangeable through a bank operating in Egypt. The
Post reports that the announcement resulted in an increase of rice price to
around $270 per ton compared to around $200 per ton before the announcement.
The government's decision has meanwhile increased the activity of the rice
millers in the country, which had ceased as farmers withheld their stocks due
to lower prices.
The Post expects the
bulk of the Egyptian rice exports to materialize between December 2015 to March
2016 as market prices of Egyptian medium grain "sticky" rice are
likely to be more competitive in the international market.
USDA Post estimates
Egypt's MY 2015-16 paddy production at around 5.797 million tons, down from an
estimated 6.565 million tons in MY 2014-15 and unchanged from USDA's official
estimates. The decline is due to higher-than-normal temperatures during August,
which led to a reduction in grain weight.
EFSA Sets New Toxicological Safety Thresholds for Use of
Glyphosate in EU Member States
Nov 13, 2015
The European Food
Safety Authority (EFSA) and the EU member states have finalized the norms for
re-assessment of glyphosate, a chemical that is used widely in pesticides,
according to a news release on the EFSA website.
Following extensive
assessment of new studies and data, the EFSA and the EU member states have come
up with a report stating that glyphosate does not pose a carcinogenic threat to
humans. They noted in the report that glyphosate may not be classified as
carcinogenic under the EU regulation for classification, labelling and
packaging of chemical substances. The review group reportedly reached the
conclusion after considering several evidences, including a report by the
International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which classified glyphosate
as probably carcinogenic to humans.
The group proposed an
acute reference dose (ARfD) for glyphosate of 0.5 milligrams per kilogram
(mg/kg) of body weight. It also proposed other toxicological safety thresholds
to guide risk assessors. It set the acceptable operator exposure level (AOEL)
at 0.1 mg/kg body weight per day and the acceptable daily intake (ADI) for consumers
at 0.5 mg/kg body weight per day.The report and the new limits can now be used
by the EC to decide whether or not to retain glyphosate on the EU’s list of
approved active substances. It can be used by the EU member states to allow its
use in pesticides.
“This has been
an exhaustive process – a full assessment that has taken into account a wealth
of new studies and data. By introducing an acute reference dose we are further
tightening the way potential risks from glyphosate will be assessed in the
future. Regarding carcinogenicity, it is unlikely that this substance is
carcinogenic,” said the Head of EFSA's Pesticides Unit."EFSA will use the
new toxicological values during its review of the maximum residue levels for
glyphosate in food, which will be carried out in cooperation with Member States
in 2016," he added.
Bangladesh to Increase Import Duty on Rice Shortly, Says Food Minister
Nov 13, 2015
The government of
Bangladesh is planning to increase the import duty on rice imports from the
current 10% to curb surging imports, especially from India, local sources,
quoted the Food Minister.Following a meeting of the Food Planning and
Monitoring Committee, the Minister told local sources that new rate would be
announced in a couple of days.
"Indian rice has
already arrived in the market because of a delay in raising the duty," he
was quoted. He noted that farmers would be harmed if duty is not increased.
Restriction of imports is said to be necessary to protect local prices during
the Aman harvest, which will begin shortly.The Bangladesh government imposed a
duty of 10% on rice imports in May 2015 after rice imports by private traders
surged significantly due to low global prices. Bangladesh traders imported over
1.4 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (July - June) compared to only 374,560
tons imported in the whole year of 2013-14.
USDA estimates
Bangladesh’s MY 2015-16 (July 2015 – June 2016) milled rice production at
around 34.6 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.5 million tons in MY
2014-15. It estimates Bangladesh to import around 1.2 million tons of rice in
MY 2014-15 and about 600,000 tons in MY 2015-16.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Dip after USDA Reports Dismal Export
Sales
Nov 14, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was weaker today with limited trading occurring after the USDA reported dismal
export sales for the week.Cumulative net export sales for the week that ended
on November 5 totaled 35,700 tons, a decrease of 56% from the previous
week and 55% lower than the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for
the following destinations: 15,700 tons to Japan, 11,000 tons to Taiwan, 3,000
tons to New Guinea, 2,100 tons to El Salvador, and 2,100 tons to Canada, while
a reduction of 500 tons was reported for Yemen.
U.S. rice exporters
shipped 34,200 tons, a decrease of 25% from the previous week and 47% lower
than the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the following
destinations: 16,100 tons to Japan, 4,200 tons to El Salvador, 4,000 tons to
Mexico, 3,500 tons to Canada, and 3,000 tons to New Guinea.
Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Slide as
Commodities Come Under Pressure
Nov 14, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 21.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per
ton) lower at $12.145 per cwt (about $268 per ton). The other grains finished
the day lower as well; Soybeans closed about 0.9% lower at $8.5525 per bushel;
wheat finished about 0.5% lower at $4.9775 per bushel, and corn finished the
day about 1.1% lower at $3.6550 per bushel.
U.S.
stocks traded more than 1% lower Friday, pressured by a continued decline in
oil prices and soft reports on the health of the consumer. The major averages
are down more than 3% for the week so far, on pace to break a 6-week win
streak. October retail sales showed an increase of 0.1%, below expectations of
a 0.3% rise. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials
and food services rose 0.2% after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September.
In another sign of little inflation, the producer price index for October fell
0.4%, after falling 0.5% the previous month.
The
preliminary read on November consumer sentiment hit 93.1, topping expectations.
In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 199 points, or
1.14%, to 17,250. The S&P 500 declined 22 points, or 1.11%, to 2,023, with
consumer discretionary leading nine sectors lower and materials the only
advancer. The Nasdaq composite fell 71 points, or 1.4%, to 4,934. Gold is seen
trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.4% lower, and the
U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher about 3:00pm Chicago time.Thursday,
there were 656 contracts traded, down from 680 contracts traded on Wednesday.
Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by
75 contracts to 12,443.
Global
Rice Quotes
November 13th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 365-375
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 370-380
↔
India 5% broken 345-355
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 315-325
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 405-415
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 415-425
↔
U.S. 4% broken 490-510
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545
↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 345-355
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 355-365
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 290-300
↔
Cambodia 25% broken 400-410
↔
India 25% broken 325-335
↔
U.S. 15% broken 500-510
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 355-365 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 590-610
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 785-795
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 460-470
↓
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 325-335
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 335-345
↑
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 355-365
↔
India 100% broken stxd 285-295
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 330-340
↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Weekly: Demand from Indonesia, Philippines Continues to Support
Global Rice Export Quotes
Nov 14, 2015
The Oryza White Rice
Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the
week at $394 per ton, up $1 per ton from a week ago and a month ago and down
$57 per ton from a year ago.
Global rice export
quotes increased or remained stable during the week due to increasing demand.
However, domestic rice prices in most of the countries declined due to
increasing supplies from ongoing harvests.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $360 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago, down
about $5 per ton from and month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year
ago.
In an open letter
posted on Facebook, former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra defended
herself to junta leader Prayath Chan-ocha. Thailand’s Deputy Prime
Minister has reiterated that the rice pledging case against Shinawatra is
receiving fair treatment from the government and is being dealt with in
compliance with the law.
The Thai Rice
Exporters Association is hopeful that the country will export 9.5-10 million
tons of rice in 2016 due to several pending purchase orders under
government-to-government contracts with the Philippines and China.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $20
per ton from a month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.
Rice exports from
Vietnam increased sharply in October following three sluggish months. The
increase is attributed to increased demand from the Philippines and
Indonesia. Despite the increase, total rice exports are still behind last
year’s numbers, according to the Vietnam Food Association.
The large-scale field
model introduced by the government of Vietnam under the Decision No 62/2013 to
encourage large-scale fields is beginning to show effective results, especially
in rice production, says the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Cambodia
Cambodia 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $420 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month
ago, and down about $40 per ton from a year ago.
Paddy yields in
Cambodia from the ongoing wet-season rice crop are expected to be slightly
below last year due to drought but the decline is not likely to impact exports.
India
India 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $350 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $10
per ton from a month ago, and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.
In an effort to evade Iran’s
restrictive import permits on India’s basmati rice, Indian rice is being
shipped through the United Arab Emirates and then on to Iran.
The government of Bangladesh
plans to procure 200,000 tons of 2015 Aman (July-December) rice from millers
between December 15 and March 15. Meanwhile, the government is planning to
increase the import duty on rice imports from the current 10% to curb surging
imports, especially from India, according to the Food Minister.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $320 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about
$10 per ton from a month ago, and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.
Central &
South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton,
unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year
ago.
The USDA Post
forecasts Brazil’s MY 2015-16 (April 2016-March 2017) rice production to
decline about 10% y/y to around 8 million tons. The decline is attributed
to incessant rains in Rio Grande do Sul with is delaying planting operations
and may lower yields.
Brazil’s rice stocks
stood at around 121,038 tons in October, down about 3% from the previous month
and down about 76% from October 2014.
In the first nine
months of 2015, Brazil exported about 852,242 tons of rice. In September,
Brazil exported about 133,130 tons of rice, an increase of about 13% from
August.
The Brazilian paddy
rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics
(CEPEA) reached around 40.98 real per 50 kilograms as of November 10, 2015,
slightly up from around 40.8 real per 50 kilograms recorded on November 2,
2015. In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $218.05 per ton
on November 10, 2015, slightly up from around $216.5 per ton recorded on
November 2, 2015. Month-on-month, the index has increased about 2% from
about 40.31 real per 50 kilograms. In terms of USD, the index increased about
1.5% during the month.
Argentina and Uruguay rice ended the week shown
around $535 per ton, unchanged from a week prior, down $5 per ton from a month
ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA Post reports
that Argentina’s local rice sector is facing problems due to slow export sales
and high domestic costs, making it difficult to compete internationally.
However, Argentina has exported about 432,568 tons of rice in the first six
months of 2015, an increase of about 21% from the same period in 2014.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is
today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and up
about $45 per ton from a year ago.
Chicago rough rice
futures for January delivery fell in the first half of the week, opening at the
weekly high of $12.400 per cwt (about $273 per ton) before dropping to a weekly
low of $11.850 per cwt (about $261 per ton) midweek. Futures recovered
some later in the week to close at $12.145 per cwt (about $268 per ton) on
Friday.
The U.S. cash market
was weaker early in the week as bids and offers dropped with the futures market
and the USDA’s WASDE report showed an increase in global ending stocks.
It firmed up some later in the week, in tandem with the rally in the futures
market, but most farmers remained on the sidelines waiting for better prices.
In its November 2015
World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates reports, the USDA estimates the
U.S. all rice supplies at around 12.01 million tons, up from last month’s
forecast of 11.88 million tons but down from 2014-15’s numbers due to expected
higher production. The USDA estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice production at
around 8.65 million tons, and it estimates U.S. all rice exports at around 4.45
million tons.
Other Markets
Myanmar 5% rice is today shown at around $410 per ton, unchanged
from a week ago and down about $5 per ton from a month ago. Myanmar’s rice
exports declined sharply in the first six months of FY 2015-16 (April-March)
due to a temporary ban imposed on exports in efforts to safeguard prices and
stocks following devastating floods in August this year.
The government of Nigeria
is striving to attain self-sufficiency in rice production in the next two
years.
South Korea’s government rice stocks at the end of October have
reached around 1.36 million tons, an increase of about 58% from the same time
last year. The increase is attributed to higher production and lower
consumption. The nation’s rice production has reached a six-year high in 2015
due to increase in yields, according to Statistics Korea.The European
Union’s rice imports from Least Developed Countries of Asia under the
Everything But Arms Agreement have reached about 42,916 tons in the first two
months of the crop year 2015-16 (September-August), down about 7% from the same
period last year.
The European Food
Safety Authority (EFSA) and the EU member states have finalized the norms for
re-assessment of glyphosate, a chemical that is used widely in pesticides.
The Malaysian Trade
Minister has said Malaysia may not ratify the final
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement due to the TPP obligations on geographical
indications.
Italian paddy rice prices, which were quite low in the last week
of September and first week of October, started increasing in the second week
of October and are continuing the pace.
USDA Post forecasts Egypt's
MY 2015-16 (May - April) rice exports at around 400,000 tons, up about 60% from
an estimated 250,000 tons in MY 2014-15 due to the government's resumption of
milled rice exports for six months effective October 4, 2015.
USDA Post forecasts China
to import around 4.7 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (July - June),
up about 9% from an estimated 4.315 million tons imported in MY 2014-15 due to
prevailing high domestic rice prices.
The Philippines
2015 third quarter paddy production is recorded at around 2.55 million tons,
down about 15.7% from around 3.027 million tons produced during the same period
in 2014, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The decline is
attributed to extending drought conditions brought about by the El Nino weather
phenomenon.
Guyana has exported around 437,448 tons of rice in the first ten
months (January - October) of 2015, up about 6% from around 412,228 tons
exported during the same period last year, according to the Guyana Rice
Development Board (GRDB).
Thailand, Vietnam Rice Sellers Alter Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia
Rice Export Quotes Remain Unchanged
Nov 13, 2015
Thailand rice sellers
have lowered their quotes for fragrant A1 Super rice variety by $5 per ton to around
$340 - $350 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 100%
broken rice variety by about $5 per ton to around $335 - $345 per ton. They
lowered their quotes for jasmine rice by about $10 per ton to around $460 -
$470 per ton. India rice sellers are out due to a public holiday. Other rice
quotes remain unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton about $15 per ton discount on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at
around $345 - $355 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown
at around $315 - $325 per ton.
25% Broken
Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at
around $325 - $335 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan
parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice,
A1 Super is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $10 per ton discount
to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $285 - $295 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on
Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Philippines 2015 3Q Paddy Rice Production Declines 15.7%y/y Due to El Nino,
Says PSA
Nov 13, 2015
The
Philippines 2015 third quarter paddy production is recorded at around 2.55
million tons, down about 15.7% from around 3.027 million tons produced during
the same period in 2014, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority
(PSA). The decline is attributed to extending drought conditions brought about
by the El Nino weather phenomenon.Paddy production in the first none months of
2015 has reached around 10.875 million tons, down about 4.7% from around 11.407
million tons produced during the same period last year.
The
PSA data shows that the average farm gate paddy prices have declined to around
17.75 peso per kilogram (around $377 per ton) in the July-September quarter,
down about 13.4% from around 20.51 peso per kilogram (around $435 per ton)
during the same period last year.The average farm gate paddy prices have
declined to around 17.5 peso per kilogram (around $371 per ton) in the
January-September period, down about 13.4% from around 20.21 peso per kilogram
(around $429 per ton) during the same period last year.
Guyana Exports 437,448 Tons of Rice in First Ten Months of 2015; Up 6% from
Previous Year
Nov 13, 2015
Guyana
has exported around 437,448 tons of rice in the first ten months (January -
October) of 2015, up about 6% from around 412,228 tons exported during the same
period last year, local sources quoted data from the Guyana Rice Development
Board (GRDB).However, earnings from exports are understood to have fallen
during the ten-month period due to a significant fall in world rice prices.
Also, loss of Venezuela market has affected the country's export prices,
according to the General Manager of the GRDB. “In 2014 almost 30 per cent of
the market that we exported to was Venezuela, for which the country and the
farmers were receiving higher than above world market prices for the rice and
paddy they exported there.”
This
year, exporters have received only market prices, he added. The official added
that in 2014, exporters received about $480 per ton of paddy and about $780 for
milled rice from Venezuela. However, this year, prices of white rice have
fallen to around $390 - $398 per ton.
Though
Venezuela has decided not to renew the PetroCaribe (Oil for Rice) deal with
Guyana, the government of Guyana has been successful in increasing rice exports
to Caricom countries (Antigua, Barbados and Belize), and to the European Union
(EU) in 2015."With an aggressive marketing strategy spearheaded by the
GRDB and the Private Sector, and with support from the Ministry of Agriculture,
the country is set to soon secure many new markets for the country’s rice and
paddy," the GRDB official noted. He also noted that they GRDB is also
focussing on markets where best prices are obtained.Guyana exported about
501,208 tons of rice in 2014, up about 27% from around 394,988 tons exported in
2013, according to the GRDB.
Rice News have been shared with written permission of ORYZA.com
