Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Hold Amid
Limited Trading Due to Christmas Holiday; IGB Tender Results Highly Anticipated
Dec 23, 2014
The U.S. cash market was
unchanged today with little trading to report as many the industry had already
checked out for the Christmas Holiday.Analysts contend that both buyers and
sellers went to the sidelines in advance of the results of the latest Iraqi Grain
Board tender which are expected to be announced Friday, December 26th,
when many in the industry will still be on vacation.Many in the industry
believe that the IGB buys at least one cargo of rice out of the 105,000 MT
offered from the U.S. that it could be the catalyst for higher prices.
Global Rice
Quotes
December 23rd, 2014
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 420-430
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 385-395 ↔
India 5% broken 385-395
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 370-380
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 460-470 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 510-520
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 595-605 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 595-605 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken NQ ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 350-360 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 330-340 ↑
Cambodia 25% broken 435-445
↔
India 25% broken 350-360
↔
U.S. 15% broken 495-505
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415
↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 395-405
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385
↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 580-590
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 890-900
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 525-535
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 820-830 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 330-340
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 300-310
↑
Cambodia A1 Super 385-395 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 295-305
↓
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S.
pet food 390-400 ↔
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All
prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza
Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Give Back Some of the Mid-day
Gains to Close Slightly Higher
Dec 23, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for
Jan delivery settled 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $12.185 per
cwt (about $271 per ton). Rough rice futures finished the day slightly higher
as the market gave up mid-day gains in afternoon trading. The market remains
quiet and will likely remain so as the market trades through the next two
holiday shortened weeks. The other grains closed flat to higher today; Soybeans
closed unchanged at $10.3850 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.6% higher at
$6.3550 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.6% higher at $4.1400 per
bushel.
U.S. stocks furthered record
gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 18,000 for
the first time, as investors embraced data that had the economy expanding in the
third quarter by the most in 11 years. The Nasdaq, however, erased initial
gains and turned lower, with biotechnology names weighing on the index. After
rising as much as 109 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average more recently
rose 103.03 points, or 0.6%, to 18,062.47. Also rising to an intraday record
and on track for a 51st record finish of the year, the S&P 500 was lately
up 5.7 points, or 0.3%, at 2,084.25, with financials pacing gains and health
care the sole laggard among its 10 main sectors. Erasing gains, the Nasdaq slid
9.71 points, or 0.2%, to 4,771.71. Tuesday's economic reports had the U.S.
economy soaring by 5% in the third quarter, the most rapid pace since the same
period of 2003, while a separate report had orders for durable goods unexpectedly
dropping in November. Gold is trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen
trading about 3.9% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4%
higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Monday, there were 1,754 contracts
traded, down from 2,116 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest – the number
of contracts outstanding – on Monday decreased by 160 contracts to 9,879
Pakistan
Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; India Rice Sellers Lower Some
of Their Quotes
Dec 23, 2014
Pakistan rice sellers increased
their quotes for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5
per ton each to around $330 - $340 per ton and $300 - $310 per ton respectively
today. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5
per ton to around $295 - $305 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their
quotes mostly unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at
around $405 - $415 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown
at around $385 - $395 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $385 - $395
per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $370 -
$380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice was last quoted
at around $350 - $360 per ton, on par with Vietnam 25% rice shown at around
$350 - $360 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $350 - $360, about $20
per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, up
about $5 per ton from yesterday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted
at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $375 -
$385 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at
around $395 - $405 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super,
is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice
shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at
around $295 - $305 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday and about
$5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $300 -
$310 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.
Myanmar
May Export Over 1.5 Million Tons of Rice in FY 2014-15; Up 25% from Last Year
Dec 23, 2014
Myanmar is expected to export
more than 1.5 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (April - March), up about 25%
from around 1.2 million tons exported last year, the Myanmar Rice Federation
(MRF) Joint Secretary was quoted as saying to local sources.Myanmar exported
around 799,600 tons of rice in the first eight months (April - November) of FY
2014-15, up about 75% from around 455,800 tons exported during the same period
last year, according to local sources.
The South East Asian nation's
rice exports slowed down significantly between August and November this year
after China had officially banned rice imports through Myanmar's northern
borders. Though rice exports through the northern borders is considered
to be legal from Myanmar's point of view, Chinese authorities have been treating
these cross border imports as illegal as there is no formal rice export
agreement between China and Myanmar. China is also understood to have promised
to lower border tax on imports from Myanmar.
Myanmar government had held talks
with the Chinese authorities to chart a formal trade agreement between the two
countries. In November, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, the Chinese
Premier promised to import one million tons of rice from Myanmar in 2015 as
well as legalize imports through borders.The MRF Joint Secretary noted that the
Chinese authorities began loosening controls on rice imports from Myanmar
borders since mid-November though they have not publicly explained the patch
up.
He added that exports to China
have been picking up since then and he expects more exports to China in the
next three months of this financial year. Myanmar is likely to export 200,000
tons of rice formally to China this month. Of this, 100,000 ton would be
exported through the borders and remaining would be exported through the sea.He
also told local sources that exports to European and African destinations have
also increased considerably. The government is also negotiating with the
governments of many other countries to expand its export market. He added that
negotiations with Sri Lanka had completed recently.
The Myanmar government is keen on increasing
rice exports to around 3 million tons in the next few years and is planning to
prioritize rice in its National Export Strategy, which is likely to be released
in January 2015.USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 18.98 million tons of paddy
rice (around 12.15 million tons, milled basis) and export around 1.4 million
tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015).
Thanks and Regards,
Pakistan
Hopes to Resume Basmati Rice Exports to Mexico
Dec 23, 2014
Pakistan rice exporters are
hopeful of resuming basmati rice exports to Mexico, which banned basmati rice
shipments from Pakistan in June 2013 after finding traces of Khapra beetle in
some shipments of Pakistan, according to local sources.Officials from the Trade
Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) are understood to have met a
two-member Mexican rice quarantine delegation few days back to discuss over
possible resumption of basmati rice exports from Pakistan. The delegation has
also reportedly visited and inspected various rice facilities to ensure that
processing, storage, packing and quality assurance were in line with Mexico's
requirements.
The TDAP officials met with the
Mexican authorities after members from the Rice Exporters Association of
Pakistan (REAP) sought their support in regaining the lost export share in
Mexico, which produces only 17% of its annual consumption needs of around
890,000 tons, basis milled, and imports the rest.Mexico's rice imports from Pakistan
increased significantly during the first five months of 2013. During this
period, Pakistan rice constituted about 23% of Mexico's total rice imports.
Pakistan exported around 16,000 tons of rice to the Central American country
during January - May 2013 (before the ban), twice from around 7,400 tons
exported during the same period in 2012.
Pakistan exported around 1.35
million tons of rice (around 239,773 tons of basmati and around 1.11 million
tons of non-basmati) in the first five months of FY 2014-15 (July 2014 - June
2015), up about 16% from around 1.16 million tons exported during the same
period in FY 2013-14. The South Asian nation is reportedly exploring new export
markets such as Cuba, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Puerto Rico and Peru
Venezuela
Announces Subsidy for Paddy Rice Production
Dec 23, 2014
The Venezuelan government has
announced it will subsidize paddy rice prices at about 6.10 bolivars per
kilogram (around $960.69 per ton), according to Bloomberg.The subsidy details
have been published in the official gazette number 40,567 and the subsidy is
applicable in the states of Barinas and Portuguesa.The subsidies are expected
to provide some relief to rice farmers who have been complaining of inadequate
agricultural inputs and prevailing price controls are hindering rice production
in the country. Recently, in November, the government fixed maximum retail
price (MRP) of rice at around 9.63 Bolivars per kilogram (around $1,532 per
ton) for the producer in order to help them increase their incomes.
The government also announced
subsidies of around 4.80 bolivars per kilogram (around $755.95 per ton) and
around 4.10 bolivars per kilogram (around $645.71 per ton) of white and yellow
corn respectively.USDA estimates Venezuela paddy rice production to decline to
around 560,000 tons (around 380,000, basis milled) in MY 2014-15 (April -
March), down about 1% from an estimated 567,000 tons (around 385,000 tons,
basis milled) in MY 2013-14. It also expects Venezuela rice imports to increase
to around 425,000 tons in 2015, up about 36% from an estimated 312,000 tons
last year. USDA estimates Venezuela rice exports to increase to around 150,000
tons in 2015, up about 50% from an estimated 100,000 tons last year.
Thailand
Government Urged to Improvise Rice Selling Procedures
Dec 23, 2014
The Honorary President of the
Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has urged the Thailand government to
improve procedures for selling rice stocks in order to avoid unnecessary
downward pressure on prices, according to local sources.He noted that the
government should on a priority basis exclude rotten rice stocks from the
warehouses and inform the market about the exact amount of government's rice
stocks. He said by doing so, there would be a correction in rice prices and help
the market return to normalcy. Hasty sales by the government will only push
down the prices and will not lead to a significant increase in prices, he said.
He reportedly made these
suggestions after the Thai Prime Minister told local sources that his government
is keen on selling the existing 17 million tons of rice stocks in the
government warehouses within the next two to three years to both domestic and
overseas traders.The TREA Honorary President also expressed concern that
selling rice stocks to overseas buyers may not be so easy next year due to an
expected increase in supplies by other exporting nations such as India and
Vietnam. While the Commerce Ministry is expecting to export around 10.5 million
tons of rice in 2015, he is predicting exports of around 10 million tons.
The National Rice Policy
Committee, headed by the Prime Minister, acknowledged that there are about 17.8
million tons of rice stocks, of which 2.35 million tons are of good quality,
14.4 million tons are sub-standard, around 694,000 tons are rotten and around
390,000 are missing.
The government auctioned about
400,000 tons of rice in the fourth auction on December 22, 2014 and approved
sale of about 250,000 tons. It sold around 348,000 tons of rice worth 3.6
billion baht (around $81 million) in the last three auctions. The
Director-General of the Foreign Trade Department noted that is planning to sell
state rice stocks on a continuous basis until next March, when new supply from
the second crop enters the market.
Vietnam
Foresees Stiff Competition in 2015 for G2G Rice Sales
Dec 23, 2014
Vietnam's rice exports to the
concentrated or G2G markets, to which Vietnam sells rice under
government-to-government (G2G) deals, are expected to decline in 2015 due to an
expected stiff competition between the top rice exporting countries including
Thailand and India, according to local sources.Vietnam normally sells rice
under G2G contracts to China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Demand
from these three countries is likely to reach around 2.5 million tons next
year, but none of them has so far signed contracts with the Vietnamese rice
exporters, said the Director General of Vietnam's state-owned rice exporter
Southern Food Corporation (Vinafood 2).
He told local sources that they
are expecting lesser orders next year due to a strong competition in the
market. He noted that they are particularly concerned of Thailand who is likely
to offload huge amount of stocks from the government warehouses into the market
next year.The official said it is difficult to predict next year's target
exports particularly because of the instability of the Chinese market. Vietnam
had been relying too much on China for the last couple of years. But it is
understood that China has agreed to buy around 2 million tons of rice from
Thailand and around 1 million tons of rice from Myanmar next year.
An official from the Vietnam Food
Association (VFA) added that Vietnamese exporters have not been able to clinch
any deals with African countries, which import nearly 14 million tons of white
rice annually. Vietnam could not penetrate East African market and has very
little presence in West African countries like Ghana and Ivory Coast. He noted
that too many varieties of rice varieties within the common white rice market
is diluting Vietnam's rice competitiveness.
Rice export prices in all the top
exporting countries have been declining for the last couple of months due to
increasing supplies from ongoing harvests and increased competition. Export
prices of Viet 5% broken rice currently stand at around $390 per ton, down
about 10% from around $435 per ton in the first week of November. Similarly
prices of Thai 5% rice declined about 2.4% to around $410 per ton, India 5%
rice declined about 6% to around $390 per ton and Pakistan 5% rice declined
about 6.25% to around $375 per ton during the same period. Vietnam is
targeting to export around 6.5 million tons of rice in 2014. It has exported
around Vietnam exported about 5.961 million tons of rice in January 1 -
December 18, 2014, according to the VFA. It exported around 6.71 million tons
of rice exported in 2013.
Nepal
2014-15 Rice Imports Forecasted to Increase 11% y/y to 500,000 Tons
Dec 23, 2014
The UN's Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) has forecasted Nepal 2014-15 (July - June) rice imports to
surge to around 500,000 Tons, up about 11% from around 450,450 tons in 2013-14
due to an expected decline in 2014 production and sustained demand.In its
latest country brief on Nepal, the FAO estimates the South Asian nation's total
2014-15 cereal, including rice, imports to increase by about 10% to around
571,800 tons from last year's 519,818 tons.
The UN agency estimates Nepal
2014 paddy production at around 4.6 million tons (around 3.1 million tons,
basis milled), down about 9% from around 5 million tons (around 3.35 million
tons, basis milled) due to an estimated 6% decline on planted area as a result
of late and below-average monsoon rains, which delayed sowing process and
thereby leading to reduced yields. Floods and landslides across Mid-Western and
Far-Western regions of the country further added to losses in rice
production.Harvesting of the 2014 main season rice crop (April - December) was
completed by mid-December.
USDA estimates Nepal’s MY 2014-15
(October 2014 – September 2015) paddy rice production to decline to about 4.655
million tons (around 3.1 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 5
million tons (around 3.36 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14. It
estimates Nepal to import 300,000 tons of rice in 2014 and around 350,000 tons
of rice in 2015.
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