Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Weaken Slightly; High River Levels
Cause for Concern
Dec 31, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was slightly weaker today although there was very little trading to report as both
buyers and sellers continue to hold out for better prices.
Recent heavy rains
across the US Midwest have elevated water levels on the Lower Mississippi
River to the point the barge loading operations have had to shut down while
also slowing logistics throughout the system.
Analysts note that if
new export demand were to show up the speed with which the U.S. would be able
to ship would likely be significantly delayed until water levels recede.
Oryza Weekly: Market Little Changed Ahead of New Year Celebrations
Dec 31, 2015
The Oryza White Rice
Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the
week at about $387 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $6 per ton
from a month ago and down about $44 per ton from a year ago.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago,
down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $60 per ton from a year
ago.
Thailand’s Public Debt
Management Office plans to transfer the 500-billion baht (about $14 billion)
debt incurred under the rice pledging scheme from the Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives to the fiscal debt ledger to cut interest expenses.
Meanwhile, the government will continue to sell rice from its stockpiles,
timing the sales so that they do not impact prices of the new crop.
India
India 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $5
per ton from a month ago, and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.
Rice procurement by
the Food Corporation of India and state government agencies for the
summer/kharif marketing season 2015-16 has increased sharply over the last
year, despite a likely lower output this year.
Indian rice exporters
anticipate basmati rice exports in FY 2015-16 (April-March) to reach 4 million
tons, compared to about 3.7 million tons in FY 2014-15, due to a depreciating
rupee and enhanced demand from West Asian countries such as Iran and Saudi
Arabia.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago,
down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $20 per ton from a year
ago.
Paddy rice production
in 2015 is estimated to increase to around 45.2 million tons from 44.97 million
tons in 2014, despite dry conditions.
The Agriculture
Ministry estimates the country’s rice exports to reach about 6.7 million tons
in 2015, up about 5.8% from in 2014.
The UN’s FAO estimates
Vietnam’s 2015 rice exports will reach 8.3 million tons (including 1.5 million
tons of unofficial exports to China through land borders), an increase of about
4% from 2014.
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $430 per ton,
unchanged from a week ago, up about $10 per ton from a month ago, and down
about $35 per ton from a year ago. Paddy rice production in Cambodia has
declined slightly to around 9.2 million tons in 2015, with the decline
attributed to drought in some areas. Separately, rice millers and
exporters in Cambodia plan to increase organic rice exports to market such as
the EU and the U.S. based on the pace of exports this year.
Myanmar 5% broken rice is today shown at about $415 per ton,
unchanged from a week ago, up about $5 per ton from a month ago, and unchanged
from a year ago.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $335 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about
$15 per ton from a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.
Central &
South America
Brazil 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $450 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $50
per ton from a month ago and down about $100 per ton from a year ago.
The Brazilian
paddy rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied
Economics (CEPEA) reached around 40.96 real per 50 kilograms as of December 27,
2015, slightly up from around 40.95 real per 50 kilograms recorded on December
20, 2015. In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $212.10 per
ton on December 27, 2015, up about 4% from around $204.22 per ton recorded on
December 20, 2015. Month-on-month, the index has declined about 1% from
around 41.44 real per 50 kilograms. In terms of USD, the index declined about
4% during the month.
Five percent broken
rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $510 per ton, unchanged
from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago and down about $90 per
ton from a year ago.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is
today shown at about $480 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $10
per ton from a month ago and down about $35 per ton from a year ago.
Chicago rough rice
futures for January delivery increased this week after opening at the weekly
low of $10.850 per cwt (about $239 per ton). They reached $11.755 per cwt
(about $259 per ton) on Tuesday before retracing some on Wednesday.
The U.S. cash market
firmed up this week with offers from resellers jumping with the futures market.
Other Markets
The Trade Minister of Indonesia
says that the country will likely need to import rice in 2016, after importing
about 1.5 million tons in 2015. Meanwhile, the government of Indonesia
plans to include rice in public stockholding and protect it by a special
safeguard mechanism for agricultural products.
The government of South
Korea plans to strike a balance between rice supply and demand by 2018
through a gradual reduction in paddy production and an increase in consumption.
Paddy prices in Bangladesh
have increased after the government raised the import duty on rice from 10% to
20% earlier this month.
Government of India Allocates Subsidized
Rice, Wheat to 530 Million People Under NFSA
Dec 30, 2015
The government of
India is allocating subsidized rice and wheat to over 110 million households
consisting of about 530 million beneficiaries under the National Food Security
Act (NFSA), Reuters quoted local sources.
The Indian government
is providing wheat at Rs.2 (around 3 cents) per kilogramand rice at Rs.3
(around 4.5 cents) per kilogram. Twenty five states and Union territories have
started implementing the NFSA. The government is keen on bringing all the
states under the NFSA at the earliest.
About 61.4 million
tons of rice and wheat are required for the implementation of the NFSA. Under
the current Targeted Public Distribution System (TDPS), only 25 crore
households Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) are getting food grains at subsidized
prices, while households under Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line
(APL) categories are receiving food grains at higher rates. The current TDPS
requires 56 million food grains.
The NFSA also The Act
also aims at providing nutritional requirements to pregnant women and children
up to 14 years of age by entitling them to receive nutritious meals, free of
cost. Pregnant women and lactating mothers are entitled to receive maternity
benefit of Rs. 6,000 (around $91) per pregnancy.
The government is
focussing on end-to-end computerisation in all the states for effective
implementation of the NFSA.
Exporters Seek to Increase Organic Rice Exports
Dec 30, 2015
Cambodian rice millers
and exporters are planning to increase organic rice exports to markets such as
the European Union and the U.S. based on the pace of exports this year,
according to the Phnom Penh Post.
Cambodia exported about
2,800 tons of organic rice in the first eleven months of 2015, according to the
Deputy Director General of the Department of Agriculture.
The CEO of one of the
major rice exporters in Cambodia, which started to export organic rice this
year, told local sources that there is a lot of potential in this new market
since Cambodia has land and labour to grow sufficient organic rice. He also
noted that since the price of the organic rice is much higher, about $700 to
$1,300 per ton, farmers and exporters can expect margins of about 20-30% on
these sales. He added that demand for organic rice is increasing significantly
domestically as well as abroad.
However the
Agriculture Department official noted that the country cannot immediately
depend on organic rice exports. “We cannot put much focus on organic rice
because the yield of organic paddy is lower than normal rice,” he said. “And
only farming organic rice will not give farmers much income,” he added.
He noted that given the
higher cost of organic rice, only few markets such as EU and the U.S. could
afford this rice. He assured that other varieties of Cambodian rice are also
safe and healthy for consumption.
India Rice Procurement Increases Sharply in KMS 2015-16 Due to Low Prices,
Say Food Ministry Officials
Dec 30, 2015
Rice procurement, by the
Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state government agencies, for the kharif
marketing season (KMS) 2015-16 (October 1, 2015 - September 30, 2016), has
increased sharply over last year despite a likely lower output this year, the
Financial Express quoted latest procurement data.
The FCI and the
government agencies together have procured over 18 million tons of rice (milled
equivalent of paddy) as of December 29, 2015, up about 31% from around 13.76
million tons procured during the same period last year.
Food Ministry
officials attributed the higher procurement to a decline in prices of common
variety of rice in various markets across the country. “The farmers sold grain
to government agencies rather than giving it to the private traders in Punjab
and Haryana, where procurement operations have completed,” an official was
quoted.
In Punjab, which
contributes the highest volume of rice and wheat to the central pool, the FCI
and the state agencies have procured around 9.3 million tons of rice so far,
compared to around 7.7 million tons procured last year. Agencies have procured
around 2.8 million tons of rice in Haryana compared to around 2.3 million tons
last year. They reportedly procured 760,000 tons,830,000 tons and 108,000 tons
from Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala respectively. State agencies have
reportedly purchased 1.7 million tons of rice in Chhattisgarh and 400,000 tons
in Odisha.
The government of
India fixed the minimum support price (MSP) of common variety of paddy at
around $1,410 per quintal (around $213 per ton) and that of Grade A paddy at
$1,450 per quintal (around $219 per ton) for the 2015-16 kharif season.
Based on the pace of
procurement, the Food Ministry officials expressed confidence that the
government may surpass the target of 30 million tons for KMS 2015-16. The FCI
and government agencies procured 32 million tons of rice in KMS 2014-15.
Government of South Korea Seeks to Achieve Rice Supply-Demand Balance by
2018
Dec 30, 2015
The government of
South Korea is planning to strike a balance between rice supply and demand by
2018 through a gradual reduction in paddy production and an increase in
consumption, Yonhap News quoted the government sources.
The Ministry of
Agriculture is reportedly planning to cut down the paddy acreage from the
current 799,000 hectares to around 711,000 hectares by 2018, and increase the
annual per capita rice consumption to 58.1 kilograms compared to the estimated
57.4 kilograms.
The government is also
planning to reduce the size of the rice stocks from the current 1.63 million
tons to around 800,000 tons by October 2018.
"There is a need
to deal with imbalance in supply and demand," said the Deputy Agriculture
Minister. He noted that in the last ten years, the country on average produced
280,000 tons of rice per year more than the requisite demand.
Sources from the
Agriculture Ministry noted that they will encourage farmers to increase
production of non-rice crops and for rice they will ask farmers to produce more
high-quality and lower-yield grains. They added that to increase consumption,
they will use more rice to make livestock feed and alcoholic beverages. The
Ministry is planning to lower rice reserves by releasing more grain for animal
feed and lower prices of rice for socially disadvantaged sector.
The above measures are
likely to help the government save about 300 billion won (US$256 million) on
rice storage expenses as well as stabilize domestic prices of rice, according
to the Ministry sources.
The government of
South Korea is planning to strike a balance between rice supply and demand by
2018 through a gradual reduction in paddy production and an increase in
consumption, Yonhap News quoted the government sources.
The Ministry of
Agriculture is reportedly planning to cut down the paddy acreage from the
current 799,000 hectares to around 711,000 hectares by 2018, and increase the
annual per capita rice consumption to 58.1 kilograms compared to the estimated
57.4 kilograms.
The government is also
planning to reduce the size of the rice stocks from the current 1.63 million
tons to around 800,000 tons by October 2018.
"There is a need
to deal with imbalance in supply and demand," said the Deputy Agriculture
Minister. He noted that in the last ten years, the country on average produced
280,000 tons of rice per year more than the requisite demand.
Sources from the
Agriculture Ministry noted that they will encourage farmers to increase
production of non-rice crops and for rice they will ask farmers to produce more
high-quality and lower-yield grains. They added that to increase consumption,
they will use more rice to make livestock feed and alcoholic beverages. The
Ministry is planning to lower rice reserves by releasing more grain for animal
feed and lower prices of rice for socially disadvantaged sector.
The above measures are
likely to help the government save about 300 billion won (US$256 million) on
rice storage expenses as well as stabilize domestic prices of rice, according
to the Ministry sources.
The government has been facing
higher production and lower consumption of rice over the last few years.
Global Rice Quotes
December
30th, 2015
Long
grain white rice - high quality
Thailand
100% B grade 355-365 ↔
Vietnam
5% broken 360-370 ↔
India
5% broken 355-365 ↔
Pakistan
5% broken 330-340 ↔
Myanmar
5% broken 410-420 ↔
Cambodia
5% broken 425-435 ↔
U.S.
4% broken 475-485 ↔
Uruguay
5% broken 510-520 ↔
Argentina
5% broken 505-515 ↔
Long
grain white rice - low quality
Thailand
25% broken 335-345 ↔
Vietnam
25% broken 345-355 ↔
Pakistan
25% broken 300-310 ↔
Cambodia
25% broken 400-410 ↔
India
25% broken 325-335 ↔
U.S.
15% broken 500-510 ↔
Long
grain parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 350-360 ↔
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365
↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 500-510 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 520-530 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long
grain fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 680-690 ↔
Vietnam
Jasmine 445-455 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 830-840 ↔
Brokens
Thailand
A1 Super 320-330 ↔
Vietnam
100% broken 335-345 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔
Cambodia
A1 Super 355-365 ↔
India
100% broken stxd 265-275 ↔
Egypt
medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S.
pet food 290-300 ↔
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All
prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue
to Rocket Higher as Short Specs Look to Cover ahead of New Year Holiday
Dec 30, 2015
Chicago rough rice
futures for Mar delivery settled 61 cents per cwt (about $13 per ton) higher at
$11.935 per cwt (about $263 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher;
Soybeans closed about 0.5% higher at $8.6575 per bushel; wheat finished about
2% higher at $4.7575 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.4% higher at
$3.6250 per bushel.
U.S.
stocks traded higher Tuesday, helped by stabilization in oil prices and other
commodities, as tech stocks led gains. The major U.S. averages gained more than
1% in afternoon trade to climb above their 50-day moving averages. European
stocks ended up about 1% or more. Asian equities closed higher, with Australia
outperforming with a more than 1% gain. In economic news, home values in
October were 5.2% higher year-over-year, greater than the 4.9% annual gain in
September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index that
covers all nine U.S. census divisions. Consumer confidence for December came in
at 96.5, topping expectations. Tuesday is the second day of a shortened trading
week, the last of the year. Markets are closed Friday for New Year's Day.
In
afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 210 points, or 1.20%,
to 17,739. The S&P 500 traded up 23 points, or 1.16%, to 2,080, with
information technology and health care leading all 10 sectors higher. The
Nasdaq composite gained 73 points, or 1.46%, to 5,114. Gold is seen trading
about 0.1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% higher, and the U.S.
dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher at about 2:45pm Chicago time.
Monday, there were
2,583 contracts traded, up from 483 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest
– the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday decreased by 307 contracts to
14,765.
Indian Exporters Forecast Basmati Rice Exports to Surge on Rupee
Depreciation, Higher Demand from West Asia
Dec 30, 2015
Indian rice exporters
are expecting basmati rice exports in FY 2015-16 (April - March) to reach 4 million
tons compared to about 3.7 million tons in FY 2014-15 due to a depreciating
rupee and enhanced demand from West Asian countries such as Iran and Saudi
Arabia, according to local sources.
Indian rupee had
depreciated about 4% against the U.S. dollar between early-October and
early-December 2015, and it reached a high of Rs.66.98 per dollar during the
period. Exporters have expressed satisfaction that basmati export prices have
started improving due to this fact and also due to Iran’s issuance of new permits
to rice importers. Currently basmati exports are quoted at around $950 - $1,000
per ton, higher than the $800 - $900 per ton that prevailed a couple of months
back, according to some exporters. But prices are still lower than last year's
average price of around $1,100 per ton.
India exported around
20,500 tons of Pusa 1121 basmati rice to Iran during the week ended December
26, 2015 and traders are expecting the Iranian demand to further increase in
the coming months.
India exported around
2.39 million tons of basmati rice in April-October 2015 period, up about 26%
from around 1.89 million tons exported during the same period last year,
according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export
Development Authority (APEDA). However, earnings from basmati rice
exports have declined to around $2.17 billion in April-October 2015 period from
around $2.62 billion during the same period last year due to a decline in the
average basmati rice export prices by about 34% to around $910 per ton during
the seven-month period from around $1,385 per ton last year.
Yet, exporters hoped
that situation in Syria and Yemen, and lower crude oil prices would not impact
basmati rice demand in the coming months.
New Book Discovers Journey of Italian Rice Sector Over Last Century
Dec 30, 2015
The book titled
"The rice growing and the great war," co-authored by journalist Paolo
Viana from Novara and by agronomist Giuseppe Sarasso from Vercelli, compares
and contrasts the position of the Italian rice sector today and a hundred years
back.
The authors say the
Italian sector has survived a number of difficulties over the years, including
the massacres of World War I. Yet, some problems faced by the sector are
unchanged even today, they say.
The authors say the
Italian rice acreage, which was about 146,100 hectares at the beginning of the
war in 1914 declined to 138,400 hectares by the end of the war in 1918.
However, since then there has been a tremendous increase in the acreage and
yields. Today the Italian rice acreage is about 219,000 hectares and the yields
have also increased to 6.8 tons per hectare today from 3.8 tons per hectare in
1918.
The authors have taken
some details from the ancient monthly "The Journal of rice
production". They say the various versions of the journal show that the
Italian rice sector was established by a way of life, a real economy, a
professional network, and important infrastructural investment. They also show
that the rice sector was crucial in supplying food in the World War I.
Later on, the rice
production in Italy surpassed the demand but exports were not allowed and it
was decided to protect the sector. The decision of the Agricultural Society of
Lombardy during a conference on the "Customs policy after the war" on
January 1917 is important in this regard. In the conference it was decided that
rice sector needed to be protection because of fears that the national
production would be stifled by cheap Asian rice.
The authors say today
also, the Italian rice sector is facing the same concerns with the Asian rice,
as well as with the use of rice straw and outbreaks of blast disease.
The book is published
by the portal www.risoitaliano.eu
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Cash Prices Jump with Big Futures Rally
Dec 30, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was materially firmer today with offers from resellers jumping with the futures
market coupled with an slight increase in farmer selling.
Analysts note that today’s rally
was likely the result of technical short covering however many in the market
expect export demand to pick up after the first of the year which may have
added to the strength.
Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asian Rice
Quotes Remain Unchanged
Dec 30, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers
increased their quotes for glutinous rice variety by about $5 per ton to around
$480 - $490 per ton today. Other Asian rice sellers have kept their quotes
unchanged today from yesterday.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton about $15 per ton discount on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $360 - $370 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at
around $355 - $365 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown
at around $330 - $340 per ton.
25% Broken
Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $345- $355 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at
around $325 - $335 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $50 per ton discount to Pakistan
parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken
Rice
Thailand broken rice,
A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton discount
to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $265 - $275 per ton, about $20 per ton discount
to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
Bangladesh Paddy Prices Improve After Increase in Rice Import Duty, Say Farmers
Dec 30, 2015
Bangladesh paddy
prices have increased after the government hiked the import duty on rice from
10% to 20% earlier this month, according to local sources.
Prices of medium
variety paddy have increased by about Tk 25 per 40 kilograms (around $8 per
ton) to TK 625 (around $203 per ton), according to some farmers. A Farmer told
local sources that the duty hike is benefitting them but the current prices are
still not sufficient to bring them profits.
Bangladesh traders
imported around 204,000 tons of rice in the first six months of FY 2015-16
(July - December), down about 65% from around 582,857 tons imported during the
same period last year. Rice imports reached a record high of 1.49 million tons
in FY 2014-15 due to low global rice prices. Increased imports had depressed
local rice and paddy prices significantly prompting the government to impose
import duty on rice in May 2015. The government increased the duty further in
December 2015 to protect the interest of the farmers.
The government rice
stocks stood at around 1.13 million tons as on December 27, 2015, up about 17%
from last year, according to the Food Ministry data.
The Bangladesh
government has planned to procure 200,000 tons of 2015 Aman (July - December)
rice from millers between December 15, 2015 and March 15, 2016 at Tk 31 per
kilogram (around $388.5 per ton). The General Secretary of Bangladesh Auto,
Major and Husking Mills Association noted that purchases by millers to supply
rice to the public godowns have also contributed to the recent paddy price
hike. However, some traders opined that paddy prices would have further
increased if the government procured a higher amount of Aman rice, which
accounts for about 38% of the country's total rice production.
USDA estimates
Bangladesh’s MY 2015-16 (July 2015 – June 2016) milled rice production at
around 34.6 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.5 million tons in MY
2014-15. It estimates Bangladesh to import around 1.2 million tons of rice in
MY 2014-15 and about 600,000 tons in MY 2015-16.
Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Break from
Recent Rally as Buying Interest Dries
Dec 31, 2015
Chicago rough rice
futures for Mar delivery settled 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at
$11.815 per cwt (about $260 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly
lower; Soybeans closed about 0.4% higher at $8.7025 per bushel; wheat finished
about 1.3% lower at $4.6975 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1%
lower at $3.5900 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded
slightly lower Wednesday, pressured by a decline in oil prices, as the major
averages attempted to hold gains for the shortened holiday week. In a light day
of economic reports, pending home sales fell 0.9% in November from an upwardly
revised October reading, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Trade volume in the last few sessions has been among the lightest of the year.
Markets wrap up the last week of trade for the year on Thursday, and are closed
Friday for New Year's Day. Stocks closed up more than 1% Tuesday as the tech
sector led broad gains amid some stabilization in oil and commodity prices.
As of Tuesday's close,
the S&P 500 was up 0.95% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones industrial
average was down 0.57% for the year so far. The Nasdaq composite was up 7.85%
for 2015. In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 56
points, or 0.32%, to 17,664. The S&P 500 declined 8 points, or 0.39%, to
2,070, with energy leading all 10 sectors lower. The Nasdaq composite traded
down 21 points, or 0.42%, to 5,086. The major averages are on pace for weekly
gains of half a percent or more. Gold is seen trading about 0.7% lower, crude
oil is seen trading about 3.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about
0.3% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Tuesday, there were
3,465 contracts traded, up from 2,583 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest
– the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 490 contracts
to 14,275.
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