Vietnam 2015 Paddy Rice Production Increases Slightly Despite Dry
Conditions, Says MARD
Dec 28, 2015
Vietnam's 2015 paddy
rice production is estimated to increase to around 45.2 million tons from
around 44.97 million tons in 2014 despite dry conditions impacting about 50,000
hectares of rice land in the Central regions, local sources quoted the Ministry
of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD).
On the side-lines of
the conference to review performance of the MARD in 2015, the Head of the Ministry's
Cultivation Department told local sources that the average yield this year
increased about 0.1% y/y to around 5.77 tons per hectare. He noted that the
increase is attributed to timely weather forecasts and accurate analysis of the
drought conditions by the MARD.
However, more than
9,000 hectares of rice area in southern provinces have been seriously impacted
by saltwater intrusion, said the official.
The Ministry also
reported that the maize output increased by about 378,000 tons to around 50.54
million tons. The government is reportedly planning to convert more
rice-growing areas to maize in order to cope with the climate changes.
Meanwhile, the
National Hydro-Meteorological Service is predicting the El Nino affect to be
serious in 2016 also. Accordingly, the agency is predicting the rainfall to be
much lower than the average.
The USDA estimates
Vietnam's paddy rice output to increase to around 45.12 million tons in 2016,
up from an estimated 44.92 million tons in 2015. The agency estimates Vietnam
to export 7.1 million tons of rice in 2016, up from an estimated 6.3 million
tons in 2015.
Vietnam 2015 Paddy Rice Production Increases Slightly Despite Dry
Conditions, Says MARD
Dec 28, 2015
Vietnam's 2015 paddy
rice production is estimated to increase to around 45.2 million tons from
around 44.97 million tons in 2014 despite dry conditions impacting about 50,000
hectares of rice land in the Central regions, local sources quoted the Ministry
of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD).
On the side-lines of
the conference to review performance of the MARD in 2015, the Head of the
Ministry's Cultivation Department told local sources that the average yield
this year increased about 0.1% y/y to around 5.77 tons per hectare. He noted
that the increase is attributed to timely weather forecasts and accurate
analysis of the drought conditions by the MARD.
However, more than
9,000 hectares of rice area in southern provinces have been seriously impacted
by saltwater intrusion, said the official.
The Ministry also reported
that the maize output increased by about 378,000 tons to around 50.54 million
tons. The government is reportedly planning to convert more rice-growing areas
to maize in order to cope with the climate changes.
Meanwhile, the
National Hydro-Meteorological Service is predicting the El Nino affect to be
serious in 2016 also. Accordingly, the agency is predicting the rainfall to be
much lower than the average.
The USDA estimates
Vietnam's paddy rice output to increase to around 45.12 million tons in 2016,
up from an estimated 44.92 million tons in 2015. The agency estimates Vietnam
to export 7.1 million tons of rice in 2016, up from an estimated 6.3 million
tons in 2015.
Ministry Estimates 2015 Vietnam Rice Exports to Reach 6.7 Million Tons
Dec 28, 2015
Vietnam's Agriculture
Ministry is estimating the country's rice exports to reach about 6.7 million
tons in 2015, up about 5.8% from around 6.33 million tons in 2014, according to
Reuters.
In a monthly report,
the Ministry has estimated the 2015 rice export earnings to decline about 2.9%
y/y to around $2.85 billion.
The Ministry's
estimates reportedly exclude the rice sold to China via the land borders. The
Vietnam Food Association (VFA) had earlier estimated that around 1.5 million
tons of rice would be exported to China through the borders.
Cambodia 2015 Paddy Rice Production Declines Slightly to 9.2 Million Tons,
Says Agriculture Ministry
Dec 28, 2015
Cambodia's paddy rice
production has declined slightly to around 9.2 million tons in 2015 from around
9.3 million tons in 2014, Khmer Times quoted preliminary data from the Ministry
of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
The slight decline in
production is attributed to drought in some areas, according to the Deputy
Director General of Department of Agriculture. The official expressed
confidence that the decline would not impact exports or domestic supplies as
the country has about 3 million tons of rice stocks.
He also noted that the
Ministry of Water Resources has alerted farmers to use water sparingly as it is
anticipating lesser rains next year also. The Agriculture Ministry spokesman
added that the government is ensuring uninterrupted water supplies for farming
in about 420,000 hectares across 14 provinces along the Mekong and Tonle Sap
rivers.
Some farmers told
reporters that they are continuing to grow rice during the 2015-16 dry season
(October - April) despite harvesting lesser rice in the main season (May -
February). They are however, concerned about the prices, which have declined to
around $250 per ton this year from around $300 per ton in 2014.
USDA estimates
Cambodia to produce about 4.7 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January -
December 2015), down from around 4.725 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates
Cambodia to export 1.1 million tons of rice (including official and unofficial
exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in 2015, up from an estimated
1 million tons in 2014.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Offers from Resellers Increase with the
Futures Market; Farms Remain on Sidelines
Dec 29, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was firmer today with offers from resellers increasing with the futures market.
Analysts note that
farmers are still in holiday mode and are not very interested in selling at or
near the levels resellers will unload while bids from buyers remain about $0.50
per cwt (about $11 per ton) below that level.
In the meantime, the
USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week that ended on
December 17 totaled 42,200 tons, an increase of 14% from the previous week
but 17% lower than the prior 4-week average.
Increases were
reported for the following destinations: 12,000 tons to Japan, 10,900 tons to
Taiwan, 10,800 tons to Saudi Arabia, 6,500 tons to Guatemala including 5,100
tons switched from unknown destinations, and 4,500 tons to Canada, while a
reduction of 6,000 tons was reported for unknown destinations.
U.S. rice exporters
shipped 52,400 tons, an increase of 6% from last week and 7% higher than the
prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for the following destinations:
14,000 tons to Haiti, 13,000 tons to Japan, 10,000 tons to Honduras, 6,600 tons
to Guatemala, and 3,300 tons to Canada
Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally
despite Softer Grains across the Board
Dec 29, 2015
Chicago rough rice
futures for Jan delivery settled 24 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) higher at
$11.060 per cwt (about $244 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower;
Soybeans closed about 1.4% lower at $8.6125 per bushel; wheat finished about
0.2% lower at $4.6650 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% lower at
$3.6100 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded
lower Monday, kicking off the last week of trade for the year, as a renewed
slide in oil prices weighed. Consumer discretionary gained mildly to lead a
handful of sector advancers in the S&P 500. In a light day of economic
reports, the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey showed Texas factory activity
increased for a third month in a row in December to 13.4. However, the index of
future general business activity turned negative in December. European stocks
ended lower amid the decline in oil. London's FTSE index was closed for a U.K.
public holiday.
Asian equities closed
mostly lower, with the Shanghai composite down about 2.5% for its worst day
since Nov. 27. The Shanghai composite is still on pace for its first two-year
win streak since 2007. In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average
declined 40 points, or 0.23%, to 17,511. The S&P 500 traded down 7 points,
or 0.36%, to 2,053, with energy leading seven sectors lower and consumer
discretionary leading advancers. The Nasdaq composite declined 20 points, or
0.40%, to 5,028. Gold is seen trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen
trading about 3.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher
at about 1:30pm Chicago time.
Thursday, there were
483 contracts traded, down from 1,864 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 660
contracts to 15,072.
Thai Government Seeks to Continue Rice Sales Without Impacting Prices
Dec 28, 2015
The government of
Thailand will continue to sell rice from its stockpiles at right time to ensure
that prices of new cop are not impacted, Bloomberg quoted a Commerce Ministry
statement.
The government still
holds about 13 million tons of rice stocks in the stockpile, of which about 6
million tons are "below-standard or rotten" and are judged unfit for
human consumption, according to a Commerce Ministry statement.
The statement also
noted that the government is planning to focus on strengthening farmers and
avoid distorting market mechanism. It will also provide low interest rate loans
to farmers and millers to encourage them to store about 6.6 million tons of
rice, said the statement. The government is also working towards helping the
farmers reduce their production costs.
However, some market
traders noted that the government may not be able to sell all the stockpiled
rice before its 2017 deadline. One of the traders noted that the government's
rice auctions are not fetching realistic prices as bidders would want to delay
bids and wait to purchase rice at lower prices in next auctions. He suggested
that the government should sell according to the demand.
The Commerce
Ministry's Permanent Secretary assured that the government would meet its
deadline. "We're still on track," she said.
Indonesia Plans to Include Rice in Public Stockholding, Safeguard Schemes
Dec 28, 2015
The government of
Indonesia is planning to include rice in public stockholding and protect it by
a special safeguard mechanism (SSM) for agricultural products, according to
Jakarta Post.
A senior official from
the Trade Ministry reportedly noted that the government would discuss the issue
at the next World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting. “For the public
stockholding, we’ll include rice. For SSM, we’ll propose 12 agricultural
products and plantation commodities, including rice,” he was quoted.
Under Public
stockholding, WTO allows developing nations to buy agricultural products
from their farmers and then stockpile them to ensure national food security.
Currently, WTO limits public stockholding to only 10% of total crops.
The SSM allows
developing nations to implement safeguard measures in the form of import duties
for certain agricultural products. The SSM may be carried out if there are
unusual import volumes or prices of certain commodities move outside of a
normal bracket.
All the member
countries reportedly discussed public stockholding and the SSM at the recently
concluded talks at the WTO meeting in Nairobi. They will further negotiate the
details of the two mechanisms in a special session at the WTO’s upcoming
committee on agriculture, according to the Trade Ministry official.
The official also
noted that an agreement on export competition was also reached at the Nairobi
meeting. Under the agreement, developed nations would remove export subsidies
on agriculture immediately and developing nations would remove the same by
2018.
FAO Estimates Vietnam 2015 Rice Exports to Increase 4% y/y to 8.3 Million
Tons
Dec 28, 2015
Harvesting
of the 2015 summer/autumn season crop was completed in October and that of the
minor winter crop is nearing completion. The FAO estimates the 2015
summer/autumn rice production at a record level of 14.8 million tons and the
winter crop output is anticipated to remain close to last year’s high level as
a result of good yields which offset a marginal contraction in planted area.
Planting of the 2016, mostly irrigated, main winter/spring paddy crop starts in
mid‑November in the south and continues until March in the north. Less rains
and low water levels in reservoirs and intensified salinity intrusion are
likely to impact the yield potential of the winter/spring crop.
Domestic rice prices
increased considerably in November 2015 due to government-to-government (G2G)
deals with the Philippines and Indonesia. However, prices are below their
year-ago levels according to the FAO.
Global
Rice Quotes
December 28th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 355-365
↑
Vietnam 5% broken 360-370
↓
India 5% broken 355-365
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 330-340
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 410-420
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435
↔
U.S. 4% broken 475-485
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 510-520
↔
Argentina 5% broken 505-515
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 335-345
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 345-355
↓
Pakistan 25% broken 300-310
↔
Cambodia 25% broken 400-410
↔
India 25% broken 325-335
↔
U.S. 15% broken 500-510
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 350-360 ↑
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 500-510
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 520-530
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 680-690
↓
Vietnam Jasmine 445-455
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 320-330
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 335-345
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 355-365
↔
India 100% broken stxd 270-280
↓
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 290-300
↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Thailand Seeks to Cut Interest Expenses on $14 Billion Rice Debt
Dec 28, 2015
Thailand's Public Debt
Management Office (PDMO) is planning to transfer the 500-billion baht (around
$14 billion) debt incurred under the rice pledging scheme introduced by the
previous government from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives
(BAAC) to the fiscal debt ledger to cut interest expenses, according to Bangkok
Post.
The government is
planning to discuss the issue at the PDMO's board meeting in January, which
will be chaired by the Finance Minister. It will also consider transferring
other state enterprise debts, including the 63.2 billion baht (around $1.76
billion) unpaid contribution to the Social Security Fund and debt shouldered by
the State Railway of Thailand and the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, incurred
under previous government policies.
The Finance Ministry
sources noted that the move would cut interest expenses and lower PDMO's debt
management burden and allow it to lock in long-term interest rates. Currently,
the coupon rates on bonds issued by the BAAC to fund the rice pledging scheme
are higher by 30-40 basis points than the government bonds and the government
is incurring an additional 2 billion baht (around $55.5 million) in interest,
according to a source from the government.
"We can save on
these expenses by transferring the debt to the Finance Ministry's balance
sheet," the source said. "The burden is now shouldered by the
ministry despite being booked on the BAAC's balance sheet," added the
source.
Asian Rice Quotes Mixed Today
Dec 28, 2015
Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for 100% B, 5% broken
and parboiled rice varieties by about $5 per ton each to around $355 - $365 per
ton, $345 - $355 per ton and $350 - $360 per ton respectively today. They
increased their quotes for glutinous rice variety by about $15 per ton and
lowered their quotes for Hom Mali rice variety by about $5 per ton respectively
to around $725 - $735 per ton and $680 - $690 per ton. Vietnam
rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken, 15% broken and 25% broken rice
varieties by about $5 per ton each to around $360 - $370 per ton, $350 - $360
per ton and $345 - $355 per ton respectively. India rice
sellers lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice variety by about $5 per ton
to around $270 - $280 per ton. Other Asian rice sellers have kept their quotes
unchanged today from
Thursday.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton about $15 per ton discount on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $360 - $370 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at
around $355 - $365 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown
at around $330 - $340 per ton.
25% Broken
Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $345- $355 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at
around $325 - $335 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown
at around $300 - $310 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $50 per ton discount to Pakistan
parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand
broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per
ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about $15 per
ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per
ton
India Winter Crop Rice Acreage Lags Behind Last Year as of December 23,
2015
Dec 28, 2015
Thailand Seeks to Cut Interest Expenses on $14 Billion Rice Debt
Dec 28, 2015
Thailand's
Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) is planning to transfer the 500-billion
baht (around $14 billion) debt incurred under the rice pledging scheme
introduced by the previous government from the Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to the fiscal debt ledger to cut interest expenses,
according to Bangkok Post.
The
government is planning to discuss the issue at the PDMO's board meeting in
January, which will be chaired by the Finance Minister. It will also consider
transferring other state enterprise debts, including the 63.2 billion baht
(around $1.76 billion) unpaid contribution to the Social Security Fund and debt
shouldered by the State Railway of Thailand and the Bangkok Mass Transit
Authority, incurred under previous government policies.
The
Finance Ministry sources noted that the move would cut interest expenses and
lower PDMO's debt management burden and allow it to lock in long-term interest
rates. Currently, the coupon rates on bonds issued by the BAAC to fund the rice
pledging scheme are higher by 30-40 basis points than the government bonds and
the government is incurring an additional 2 billion baht (around $55.5 million)
in interest, according to a source from the government.
"We
can save on these expenses by transferring the debt to the Finance Ministry's
balance sheet," the source said. "The burden is now shouldered by the
ministry despite being booked on the BAAC's balance sheet," added the
source.
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