Thursday, December 18, 2014

18th December (Thursday),2014 Daily Exclusive Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

FAO Estimates Sierra Leone to Import 215,000 Tons of Rice in 2015; Slightly Up from 2014

Dec 17, 2014
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated Guinea's 2015 rice, basis milled, imports at around 215,000 tons, slightly from 2014. The expected increase in imports is attributed to shortfalls in 2014 production levels.The FAO estimates Guinea's 2014 milled rice production at around 770,000 tons (around 1.15 million tons, basis paddy), down about 8% from around 831,600 tons (around 1.25 million tons, basis paddy) last year, despite favorable weather conditions and timely rains due to the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak, which has severely affected the country since the beginning of this year. The government's measures to control the outbreak of EVD led to shortfalls in labor and agricultural inputs leading to a decline in production.

In Sierra Leone, rice is the most significant crop and accounts for about 85% of total cereal production. Much of the decline in production has occurred due to border closures, restrictions/ban of people movement, people fleeing the country and reluctance of labor to work in groups.The FAO estimates that the country to have very little ending stocks in 2014 assuming high domestic utilization given lower production.Average retail prices of both imported and local rice have remained nearly stable from August this year due to increased supplies from local production. However, prices in some EVD affected districts in Southern and Northern provinces are found to be exceptionally high.

FAO Estimates Guinea to Import 320,000 Tons of Rice in 2015; Up 7% from 2014

Dec 17, 2014
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated Guinea's 2015 rice, basis milled, imports at around 320,000 tons, up about 7% from around 300,000 tons in 2014. The probable increase in imports is attributed to shortfalls in 2014 production levels.

The FAO estimates Guinea's 2014 milled rice production at around 1.315 million tons (around 1.976 million tons, basis paddy), down about 4% from around 1.368 million tons (around 2.075 million tons, basis paddy) last year, despite favorable weather conditions and timely rains due to the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak, which has severely affected the country since the beginning of this year. The government's measures to control the outbreak of EVD led to shortfalls in labour and agricultural inputs leading to a decline in production.In Guinea, rice is the most significant crop and is grown in about 80% of agricultural land. Much of the decline in production has occurred due to border closures, restrictions/ban of people movemnet, people fleeing the country and reluctance of labor to work in groups.
The FAO estimates that the country to have very little ending stocks in 2014 assuming increased domestic utilization.Average retail prices of both imported and local rice have remained nearly stable from August this year due to increased supplies from local production despite border closures with neighbouring Senegal, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau leading to declined trade.

India Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Today; Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes

Dec 17, 2014
India rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $385 - $395 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $300 - $310 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $385 - $395 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday and about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice 
Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, on par with Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $350 - $360, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $375 - $385 per ton, about $35 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton,  on par with Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $300 - $310 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.

Laos Targets Rice Exports to China

Dec 17, 2014
Laos is considering rice exports to China given the Chinese preference for sticky rice, according to local sources.The country's Vice-Minister of Agriculture and Forestry told local sources that over 200 million people in China prefer sticky rice and their increasing rice production for export to China could be very profitable and encouraging to the Laos rice sector. He noted that the government is planning to boost plantation of aromatic rice while ensuring both quality and quantity. The government will allocate farmland in 10 provinces across the country for the purpose, he added.
The Vice-Minister was attending the eighth Ordinary Session of the National Assembly Convention, scheduled between December 9-26, 2014, in Lao capital Vientiane.Laos is almost self-sufficient in rice production and consumes almost all of the output domestically and imports about 10,000 tons of rice annually to meet the consumption demand. This year, the South-East Asian nation is likely to be fully self-sufficient in rice production without the need for importing rice, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).
Given abundant agricultural land and water sources, the government has been planning to boost rice production by about 1 million tons and become net exporter of rice by 2015.  In line with the targets, the government is targeting a paddy yield of around 2.9 tons per hectare from around 720,000 hectares of paddy rice area in 2014, according to local sources. The government has been seeking support from Vietnam and China to develop improved rice varieties, which are adaptable to climate changes. It has also been encouraging domestic and foreign investment in rice production to help farmers increase yield through access to technology and newer production techniques.
USDA estimates Laos to produce around 1.55 million tons of milled rice (around 2.46 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014) and import around 10,000 tons of rice to meet consumption needs of around 1.58 million tons. 
Global Rice Quotes
December 17th, 2014

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade           420-430           ↔
Vietnam 5% broken     385-395           ↔
India 5% broken          385-395           ↓
Pakistan 5% broken     370-380           ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 460-470           ↔
U.S. 4% broken           540-550           ↔
Uruguay 5% broken    595-605           ↔
Argentina 5% broken   595-605           ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken NQ       ↔
Vietnam 25% broken   350-360           ↔
Pakistan 25% broken   330-340           ↔
Cambodia 25% broken            435-445           ↔
India 25% broken        350-360           ↔
U.S. 15% broken         495-505           ↔

Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd             405-415           ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd      410-420           ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd           375-385           ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken       580-590           ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken     570-580           ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken             NQ       ↔

Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92%           900-910           ↔
Vietnam Jasmine         515-525           ↔
India basmati 2% broken         NQ       ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken    NQ       ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 820-830           ↔

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super       330-340           ↔
Vietnam 100% broken             330-340           ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd     300-310           ↑
Cambodia A1 Super    385-395           ↔
India 100% broken stxd          300-310           ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens   NQ       ↔
U.S. pet food   390-400           ↔
Brazil half grain           NQ       ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Nepal 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production Estimated at 4.78 Million Tons; Down 5% from Last Year

Dec 17, 2014
Nepal's 2014 paddy rice production is likely to decline about 5.1% to around 4.78 million tons from around 5 million tons last year due to a late monsoon and untimely rainfall, sources from the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MAD) were quoted as saying.While unveiling a preliminary summer crop production report, the MAD officials noted that rainfall during the paddy transplantation period (June - September) was about 6% below normal and transplantation in some regions of the eastern Tarai districts was left incomplete. They also noted that per hectare paddy yields declined to around 2.43 tons from around 3.53 tons last year.They said other factors such as widening of urban areas, land plotting from residential development and natural disasters have contributed to fall in production. They noted that while about 61,000 hectares of paddy land has been left uncultivated, about 23,900 hectares were damaged by floods and landslides this year.
According to Nepal Rastra Bank's (NRB) statistics, Nepal's 2013-14 paddy output was at around 5.04 million tons, up about 12% from around 4.5 million tons in 2012-13 due to timely rains and favorable weather conditions. The NRB statistics show that the south Asian nation imported rice worth Rs.12.37 billion (around $121.45 million) in 2013-14, up about 46% from around Rs.8.47 billion (around $83.16 million) despite surplus rice stocks of around 800,000 tons from the previous fiscal due to rising disposable incomes and the Nepalese preference for better quality quality rice. Nepal mostly imports 'masino' rice.
USDA estimates Nepal to produce around USDA estimates Nepal’s MY 2014-15 (October 2014 – September 2015) milled rice production to slightly increase to about 3.1 million tons (around 4.65 million tons, basis paddy) from an estimated 3.36 million tons (around 5.05 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Nepal to import 300,000 tons of rice in 2014 and around 350,000 tons of rice in 2015.  

Low Land Flooded Rice Ecosystems Act as Net Carbon Sink, Finds Study

Dec 17, 2014
A study by the India-based Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI) under the Indian Agriculture Ministry has found that the low land flooded rice ecosystem, which is often viewed as a source of methane emissions contributing to global warming, can store carbon in soil and behave a net carbon sink, according to local sources. The study has found that rice cultivation through flooded cultivation method does not release carbon into the atmosphere. The CRRI scientists have conducted the study with special focus on East Indian states, where rice is mostly cultivated through the flooded cultivation method. They noted that flooded rice ecosystems in the Eastern India have been acting a net carbon sink rather than contributing to carbon emissions.

“Carbon inputs in rice field through photosynthesis, biomass and organic carbon added as manure exceed output, making paddy cultivation in eastern regions as carbon sinks rather than carbon emitters,” one of the scientists involved in the study was quoted as telling local sources.East Indian states (Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha) contribute to about 31% of India's total rice production. They accounted for about 33 million tons of rice production in 2012-13, according to the Directorate of Economics and Statistics. India produced around 105 million tons of rice in 2012-13 and around 106 million tons of rice in 2013-14.

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Seen Trading Higher as Market Looks to Recover from Yesterday's Loss

Dec 17, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery were trading 7 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) higher at $12.150 per cwt (about $268 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed: soybeans are currently seen 0.3% lower, wheat is listed about 0.7% higher and corn is currently trading unchanged.
U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 rising after a three-session drop, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve would continue to support the economy while readying for an interest-rate increase. The central bank ends a two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon, with most expecting the Fed will drop the "considerable-time" language from its statement as it prepares to start hiking rates in 2015. The consumer price index fell 0.3% in November, the largest drop since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 94.12 points, or 0.5%, to 17,162.99. The S&P 500 added 12.38 points, or 0.7%, to 1,985.12, with energy pacing gains among its 10 major sectors and industrials the sole laggard. The Nasdaq gained 24.89 points, or 0.6%, to 4,572.73. Gold is currently trading about 0.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.1% lower,  and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:40am Chicago time.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tick Higher as Headlines of Easing US-Cuba Relations Provide Support to US Grains

Dec 17, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 3.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $12.115 per cwt (about $267 per ton). Rough rice futures got off to a strong start during morning trading, at one point gaining as much as 12.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) before coming under renewed selling pressure as the trading session wore on. Today’s move is seen as technically bearish as the market faced firm selling and failed to continue higher as it traded near overhead resistance at $12.210 per cwt (about $269 per ton), provided by the short-term 5-day moving average. Today’s gains were likely attributed to outside support as the grain complex as a whole traded higher in response to news that US-Cuban trade relations may improve; Soybeans closed about 0.3% higher at $10.2700 per bushel; wheat finished about 4.1% higher at $6.4850 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.6% higher at $4.0825 per bushel.

U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve made its policy announcement. Energy producers led Wall Street gains, and the price of oil turned higher. The cost of living declined in November as energy prices fell, with the Labor Department's consumer price index falling 0.3%, the largest drop since 2008. Low inflation gives the Fed more reign to take its time in increasing rates. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, climbed at a slower pace than last month. After a 182-point jump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 149.41 points, or 0.9%, to 17,218.28. The S&P 500 added 21.58 points, or 1.1%, to 1,994.32, with energy pacing gains among its 10 major sectors and industrials the sole laggard. The Nasdaq gained 39.70 points, or 0.9%, to 4,587.54. Gold is trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.7% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% higher at about  1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 2,514 contracts traded, up from 940 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 201 contracts to 10,350.

 Depreciating Rupee Puts Downward Pressure on Indian Rice Export Prices

Dec 17, 2014
Indian rupee, which hit 13-month low to around Rs.63.53 against the U.S. dollar, due to declining crude oil prices, has started putting downward pressure on Indian rice export prices, according to local sources. Crude oil prices have fell to around $55 per barrel (Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures) on Tuesday.Experts are expecting Indian rupee to cross Rs.64 levels in the coming weeks owing to global factors and year-end profit bookings.
Paddy rice prices in India have been tumbling for the last couple of months due to increased supplies from the ongoing kharif rice crop (June - December) harvest. On the other hand, stiff competition between rice exporting countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Pakistan coupled with increased exportable surpluses in these countries have led to decline in export rice prices in the last couple of months. According to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), average export prices of India 25% broken rice declined about 2.4% in November 2014 to around $362 per ton from around $379 per ton in October 2014.
Weakening rupee is adding to the already declining export rice prices. Average prices of India 5% broken rice fell to around $385-$395 per ton (FOB) today, down about 2.5% from around $400 per ton last week. Local sources say Indian exporters are forced to reduce prices in tune with Thailand and Vietnam sellers. While Thailand is keen on selling its nearly 17 million tons of rice stocks accumulated from the rice pledging scheme introduced by the previous government, Vietnam is keen on exporting as much rice as possible from the recent harvest.
However, India's exports have been subdued for the past few months due to Iran's temporary ban on rice imports. Iran is an important export market for India's basmati rice and accounts for about 30% of India's total basmati rice exports.
India exported around 5.926 million tons of rice (1.64 million tons of basmati and 3.64 million tons of non-basmati) in the first six months (April - September 2014) of FY 2014-15, down about 4% from around 5.51 million tons (1.94 million tons of basmati and 3.58 million tons of non-basmati) exported during the same period last year, according to data from the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA)

Laos Targets Rice Exports to China

Dec 17, 2014
Laos is considering rice exports to China given the Chinese preference for sticky rice, according to local sources.The country's Vice-Minister of Agriculture and Forestry told local sources that over 200 million people in China prefer sticky rice and their increasing rice production for export to China could be very profitable and encouraging to the Laos rice sector. He noted that the government is planning to boost plantation of aromatic rice while ensuring both quality and quantity. The government will allocate farmland in 10 provinces across the country for the purpose, he added.

The Vice-Minister was attending the eighth Ordinary Session of the National Assembly Convention, scheduled between December 9-26, 2014, in Lao capital Vientiane.Laos is almost self-sufficient in rice production and consumes almost all of the output domestically and imports about 10,000 tons of rice annually to meet the consumption demand. This year, the South-East Asian nation is likely to be fully self-sufficient in rice production without the need for importing rice, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).Given abundant agricultural land and water sources, the government has been planning to boost rice production by about 1 million tons and become net exporter of rice by 2015.  
In line with the targets, the government is targeting a paddy yield of around 2.9 tons per hectare from around 720,000 hectares of paddy rice area in 2014, according to local sources. The government has been seeking support from Vietnam and China to develop improved rice varieties, which are adaptable to climate changes. It has also been encouraging domestic and foreign investment in rice production to help farmers increase yield through access to technology and newer production techniques.
USDA estimates Laos to produce around 1.55 million tons of milled rice (around 2.46 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014) and import around 10,000 tons of rice to meet consumption needs of around 1.58 million tons. 

 Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Hold as Market Waits for IGB Results

Dec 17, 2014
The U.S. cash market was unchanged today with little to no trading occurring as many in the industry are eagerly awaiting the results of the latest Iraqi tender which will be announced next week and will likely determine the price direction for U.S. rice going into the new year.Meanwhile, many in the industry were encouraged today after President Barack Obama announced that the U.S. government is initiating talks to resume diplomatic relations with Cuba and loosening trade and travel restrictions on the nation.
Cuba was once the largest market for U.S. rice and any increase in export demand is welcomed by the industry; however, analysts note that U.S. rice would still need to compete with less expensive rice from Asia.

Philippines Rice Stocks Stand at 2.95 Million Tons as of November 1, 2014; Up 63% m/m and Up 21%

Total rice stocks in the Philippines as of November 1, 2014 reached around 2.95 million tons, up about 63% from around 1.81 million tons recorded in October 2014, and up about 21% from around 1.77 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).
According to the BAS, household stocks (which account for about 54.8% of total rice stocks in the country) have reached around 1.62 million tons as of November 1, 2014, up about 12% from year-ago levels of around 1.45 million tons. Commercial warehouse rice stocks (which account for about 30.6% of total stocks) have reached around 900,000 tons as of November 1, 2014, up about 41% from their year-ago levels of around 640,000 tons. The rice stocks with the National Food Authority (NFA) (which account for 14.6% of total stocks) stood at around 430,000 tons, up about 23% from around 350,000 tons recorded in November 2013. Month-on-month, household rice stocks are up about 95%, commercial warehouse rice stocks are up about 73% and NFA rice stocks - in which about 96% are imported rice - are down about 4%, according to the BAS.The BAS says that the Philippines' rice stocks as of November 1, 2014 are enough to last for 87 days (household stocks are enough for 47 days, commercial warehouses stocks are enough for 27 days and stocks with NFA are enough for 13 days).
The NFA had imported about 1.8 million tons of rice since the beginning of 2014 (including 1.5 million tons of this year's imports and 300,000 tons of last year's imports) to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. It has recently allowed the private sector to import another 187,000 tons of rice under the minimum access volume (MAV) program.

Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

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