29th December(Monday),2014 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Indonesia Targets to Produce Over 80 Million Tons of Paddy Rice in 2015

Dec 26, 2014

Indonesia needs to produce over 80 million tons (around 52.8 million tons, basis milled) of paddy rice in 2015 to achieve food self-sufficiency target in the next three years, local sources quoted the  Agriculture Minister as saying.The Minister noted that he has set a target of over 80 million tons, or about 11 million tons higher than an estimated 70.6 million tons produced in 2014 to support the food self-sufficiency program initiated by the new President.

He noted that he expects all the major rice producing provinces to contribute to the increased paddy rice production. He said an increase of 2 million tons each in the provinces of East Java and West Java; 1.5 million tons in Central Java; and one million tons each in West Sumatra and North Sumatra.The Minister said the government is planning to increase the allocation for farming in the 2015 budget to around Rp20 trillion (around $1.6 billion) from the current Rp4.1 trillion (around $330 million) as part of efforts to achieve the food self-sufficiency target.

He noted that in order to increase production in the major rice producing provinces, the government needs to address certain issues such as damaged irrigation channels, inefficient distribution of fertilizer and seeds, farming tools and lack of agricultural extension. The Minister noted that the President has already approve the Ministry's plan to repair damaged irrigation system for 1 million hectares of rice fields next year.

The Minister also noted that the government would distribute 57,000 tons of fertilizer and seeds for about five million hectares of rice fields across the country.The government has actually targeted an increase of about 4% in the paddy rice production in 2015 to around 73.4 million tons (around 48.44 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 70.61 million tons (around 46.65 million tons, basis milled) in 2014, according to local sources.

USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.5 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.4 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.3 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January 2014 - December 2014. Consumption in 2015 is estimated at around 39.2 million tons.

Thai NACC and OAG to Gather More Evidence in Rice Pledging Case

Dec 26, 2014

Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) have decided to gather further evidences in the controversial rice pledging scheme before deciding over the prosecution of indicting the former Prime Minister (PM), according to local sources.

The NACC initially refused to question more witnesses following OAG's ruling to gather more evidences, regarding a government-to-government (G2G) deal with China, saying it's investigative report is complete in all respects. However, in a joint meeting on December 25, 2014, both the NACC and OAG decided to gather more evidences against the former PM as well as question two more witnesses in regarding the G2G deal.

The NACC will question an accuser over the G2G deal and a researcher from the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).

The NACC Secretary-General said he was hopeful of the OAG to carry out the prosecution of the former PM at the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Offices after its completion of interviewing the witnesses by the end of January 2015. He added that if OAG did not take up the prosecution case, it would take the case to the Court individually.

The former PM is also facing charges of ignoring warnings against misdealing in the controversial rice pledging scheme, which brought losses of over 500 billion baht (around $15.6 billion) to the exchequer.

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Slightly Higher on Light Volume

Dec 26, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery were trading 2 cents per cwt (about $0.44 per ton) higher at $12.145 per cwt (about $268 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mostly higher: soybeans are currently seen 0.8% higher, wheat is listed about 0.2% higher and corn is currently trading unchanged.

U.S. stocks rose in light volume on Friday as Wall Street reopened following the Christmas holiday, with the Dow and S&P 500 at or near records. Around the globe, most major markets were closed, with trading shuttered in cities including London, Paris, Milan, Hong Kong and Toronto. Crude-oil futures for February delivery rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $56.05 a barrel as fighting between government troops and Islamist militias in Libya fostered supply concerns. Benchmark indexes were in position for a second week of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 45.26 points, or 0.3%, to 18,075.47. The S&P 500 gained 6.27 points, or 0.3%, to 2,088.15, with energy leading sector gains that extended to all 10 of its major industry groups. The Nasdaq gained 18.43 points, or 0.4%, to 4,791.89. Gold is currently trading about 1.7% higher, crude oil is seen trading slightly lower,  and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:40am Chicago time.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Push Slightly Higher Near Session Close but Remain Lower on the Shortened Week

Dec 26, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 4 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $12.165 per cwt (about $268 per ton). Rough rice futures pushed slightly higher in the final moments of trading as the market finished a shortened holiday week over 20 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) lower from their starting point of $12.370 per cwt (about $273 per ton) at which they opened for Monday’s session. Overall the market continues to trade in a sideways pattern and will likely continue to do so through the coming weeks.

The other grains closed mostly higher today; Soybeans closed about 1.8% higher at $10.5400 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1% lower at $6.1075 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.7% higher at $4.1475 per bushel.U.S. stocks rose in light volume on Friday following the Christmas holiday, with the Dow and S&P 500 at or near records. Around the globe, most major markets were closed, with trading shuttered in cities including London, Paris, Milan, Hong Kong and Toronto. Benchmark indexes were in position for a second week of gains. After rising 73 points to an intraday record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was more recently up 42.38 points, or 0.2%, at 18,072.59.

The S&P 500 gained 8.04 points, or 0.4%, to 2,089.92, with utilities leading sector gains that extended to all 10 of its major industry groups. The Nasdaq gained 28.01 points, or 0.6%, to 4,801.48. Gold is trading about 1.9% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.2% higher at about  1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 672 contracts traded, down from 1,064 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 304 contracts to 9,218.

Philippines Targets to Produce 20 Million Tons of Paddy Rice in 2015; Up 6% from 2014

Dec 26, 2014

The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) is targeting to produce around 20 million tons of paddy rice in 2015, up about 6% from an estimated 18.8 million tons in 2014, according to local sources.The Agriculture Secretary was quoted as saying that they are planning to achieve their target by expanding paddy rice acreage and increasing the yield per hectare to around 3.89 tons per hectare from an estimated 2.09 tons per hectare. He also noted that the government would encourage farmers to increase hybrid seeds planting to ensure higher output. He added that the government is planning to provide about 52,000 hectares of irrigated land to plant hybrid rice seeds.

The Secretary told local sources that the government is also planning to increase the budget allocation to its credit assistance program, Sikat Saka, to about P1 billion (around $22 million) from next year from the current P400 million (around $8.9 million).The Philippines government aimed to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production in 2013, but could achieve only 92% of the self-sufficiency target due to a series of typhoons that hit the country. Now the government has temporarily put off the rice self-sufficiency target and is planning to import sufficient rice to ensure adequate stocks and control price hikes.

The South-East Asian nation has imported around 1.8 million tons of rice since the beginning of 2014 (including 1.5 million tons of this year's imports and 300,000 tons of last year's imports) to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. It has recently allowed the private sector to import another 187,000 tons of rice under the minimum access volume (MAV) program.USDA estimates Philippines  MY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production at around 19.365 million tons (around 12.2 million tons, basis milled), up about 3% from around 18.822 million tons (around 11.8 million tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. It estimates Philippines 2014-15 milled rice exports at around 1.6 million tons, up about 10% from last year.

Vietnam's 2014 Rice Exports Estimated at 6.53 Million Tons; Down 1% from 2013

Dec 26, 2014

Vietnam's rice exports in 2014 are expected to reach around 6.53 million tons, down about 0.9% from around 6.59 million tons in 2013 due to a stiff competition from other exporting nations such as Thailand and India, according to Reuters.The Agriculture Ministry was quoted as saying in a monthly report that total earnings from rice exports are however expected to increase to around $3.05 billion in 2014, up about 4.2% from around $2.93 billion earned in 2013.

The Ministry noted in the report that Vietnam's total paddy production in 2014 would reach around 44.84 million tons (around 28 million tons, basis milled), up about 1.8% from around 44 million tons (around 27.5 million tons, basis milled) produced in 2013.Increase in the paddy rice output is attributed to increase in yields despite a decline in paddy rice acreage by about 1.2% to around 7.8 million hectares from around 7.89 million hectares in 2013. According to the Ministry sources average yield increased by about 3% to around 5.83 tons per hectare from around 5.66 tons per hectare in 2013.

Vietnam exported around 5.961 million tons of rice in January 1 - December 18, 2014, down about 11% from about 6.71 million tons of rice exported in full year of 2013, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $439 per ton (FOB), up about 2% per ton from same time last year.

USDA estimates Vietnam to produce around 28.16 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 45 million tons, basis paddy) and export around 6.5 million tons in MY 2013-14 (January 2014 – December 2014) .

Global Rice Quotes

December 26th, 2014

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade           420-430           ↔

Vietnam 5% broken     385-395           ↔

India 5% broken          385-395           ↔

Pakistan 5% broken     370-380           ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 460-470           ↔

U.S. 4% broken           510-520           ↔

Uruguay 5% broken    595-605           ↔

Argentina 5% broken   595-605           ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken NQ       ↔

Vietnam 25% broken   350-360           ↔

Pakistan 25% broken   330-340           ↔

Cambodia 25% broken            435-445           ↔

India 25% broken        350-360           ↔

U.S. 15% broken         495-505           ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd             405-415           ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd      395-405           ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd           375-385           ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken       580-590           ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken     570-580           ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken             NQ       ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%           890-900           ↔

Vietnam Jasmine         525-535           ↔

India basmati 2% broken         NQ       ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken    NQ       ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 805-815           ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super       330-340           ↔

Vietnam 100% broken             330-340           ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd     300-310           ↔

Cambodia A1 Super    385-395           ↔

India 100% broken stxd          295-305           ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens   NQ       ↔

U.S. pet food   390-400           ↔

Brazil half grain           NQ       ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

Dec 26, 2014

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $385 - $395 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $370 - $380 per ton.

25% Broken Rice 

Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, on par with Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $350 - $360, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $375 - $385 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton,  about $5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $300 - $310 per ton.

Myanmar's Illegal Rice Exports to China Increase Despite Ban

Dec 26, 2014

Myanmar rice exports to China through its northern borders have reached about 716,272 tons accounting for nearly 78% of the total rice exports since the beginning of this fiscal year, which began on April 1, according to local sources. Total rice exports of the country reached around 915,000 tons from April 1 - December 15, 2014, up about 75% from around 522,857 tons exported during the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Sources at the Ministry were quoted as saying that illegal rice exports to China through northern borders have increased despite China officially banning rice imports through borders. Official rice exports from the country constituted only 198,698 tons, according to the Ministry. 

The Chairman of the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) noted that though rice exports through the northern  borders is considered to be legal from Myanmar's point of view, Chinese authorities have been treating these cross border imports as illegal as there is no formal rice export agreement between China and Myanmar. China, which had been demanding a phyto-sanitary agreement with Myanmar, had officially banned rice imports through Myanmar's northern borders in August this year.

Myanmar government has been negotiating with the Chinese authorities to chart a formal trade agreement between the two countries. In November, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, the Chinese Premier reportedly promised to import one million tons of rice from Myanmar in 2015 as well as legalize imports through borders. The MRF Chairman said a delegation would visit China to carry out further negotiations with the Chinese authorities next month.

The Chairman of the Myanmar Farmers Association added that China Certification and Inspection Group is planning to set up an office in Rangoon soon in order to monitor the quality of Myanmar rice before exporting to China.

Myanmar exported record 1.33 million tons of rice in 2012-13, but exports dropped to around 1.2 million tons in MY 2013-14. The government is keen on increasing rice exports to around 3 million tons over the next few years and is planning to prioritize rice in its National Export Strategy, which is likely to be released in January 2015. It is planning to explore newer markets for its rice exports under the new strategy.

The South-East Asian nation expects to export over 1.5 million tons of rice this year. USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 18.98 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.15 million tons, milled basis) and export around 1.4 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015).

About 42% of Taiwan's Rice Imports Under 2014 U.S. CSQ Remains Untendered

Dec 26, 2014

       Of the 38,634 tons to be imported under normal tenders, Taiwan imported around 9,750 tons or about 12% of the U.S. 2014 CSQ and has invited tenders for around 12,384 tons of U.S. long grain rice on December 25. Tenders have to be invited for the remaining 16,230 tons or 42% of the total 2014 U.S. CSQ, according to the USDA Post.

According to the Post, as the year 2014 was coming to an end, Taiwan issued five tenders for a total of about 22,100 tons of U.S. rice during the week of December 8 - 13, 2014. Of this, tenders for only 5,600 tons were successfully awarded.

Tenders for 1,500 tons of U.S. origin long grain brown rice for delivery between May 1 - June 30, 2015 on December 11 and 18 failed due to no bidder participating in the bid. About 1,000 tons of rice were awarded on December 10 at NT$24,490 per ton ($784.66 per ton). Tender for another 500 tons of rice on December 18 failed due to high prices. Of 9,000 tons of U.S. origin medium/short grain brown rice tendered on December 11, only 2,000 tons were awarded at NT$24,990 per ton ($800.96 per ton) for delivery between May 1-June 30, 2015. Tender for the remaining 7,000 tons will be scheduled shortly on a global basis. Tenders for 1,500 tons of U.S. origin medium/short grain brown rice for delivery between May 1 - June 30, 2015 failed because of high prices. Of the 8,600 tons of U.S. origin medium/short grain brown rice tendered for delivery between May 1 - June 30, 2015, around 2,600 tons were awarded to two bidders at NT$26,095 per ton (around $836.83 per ton). Tender for remaining 6,000 tons is expected in January 2015.

Recently, Taiwan has removed the longstanding eight-year ban on U.S. long grain rice imports.  Taiwan has to import around 64,634 tons of rice under 2014 U.S. country specific quota (CSQ), of which around 38,634 tons of rice are to be imported in normal tenders and around 26,000 tons of rice are to be imported in Simultaneous Buy Sell (SBS) tenders.

News are published with permission of ORYZA.com

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29th December(Monday),2014 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine