Monday, February 16, 2015

13th February 2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E_Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Give Back Gains Earned Overnight as Market Fails to Find Follow-through Buying

Feb 12, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $10.330 per cwt (about $228 per ton).  Rough rice futures retraced slightly today as the market was unable to build on gains earned overnight and in the previous session as the market now faces technical resistance around $10.400 per cwt (about $229 per ton) from the 10-day moving average. Traders will likely keep an eye out for a close above this downwardly sloping level of resistance as a short term signal that the market has indeed put in a near-term low and that a recovery is underway.
In the meantime the market will likely continue to experience choppy back-and-forth trading as until a new trend is formed. The other grains finished the day with mixed results as wheat and corn slipped while soy logged modest gains; Soybeans closed about 0.6% higher at $9.8375 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.9% lower at $5.2125 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.7% lower at $3.8300 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday as investors cheered a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine and firming oil prices. Greece was unable to reach a deal with the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, the Eurogroup's Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Wednesday, noting talks will continue on Monday. The Nasdaq traded more than 1 percent higher after opening at its highest level since March 2000, the peak of the dotcom bubble. Apple continued to trade at all-time highs. Better-than-expected earnings from Cisco and other firms in the U.S. and Europe boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 at a high for 2015. Jobless claims were 304,000 last week, more than expected and an increase of 25,000 from last week.
 The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 83 points, or 0.47%, at 17,495. The S&P 500 traded up 15 points, or 0.73%, to 2,083, with information technology leading gains and utilities leading two laggards. The Nasdaq traded up 44 points, or 0.93%, to 4,845. Gold is trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.9% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.8% lower at about  1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 1,686 contracts traded, down from 2,340 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 263 contracts to 10,180.

FAO Forecasts Mixed Prospects for Madagascar 2015 Paddy Rice Production

Feb 12, 2015
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that prospects for 2015 rice production are mixed because of heavy rains in western, central and eastern parts due to cyclone Chedza on one hand and dry conditions in the southern regions on the other. Harvesting of 2015 main rice crop (October - June) will begin in April and may extend till June. 
The cyclone Chedza, which traversed the southern areas in mid January 2015, led to heavy rainfall across large parts of the country, causing flooding and damaging nearly 24,000 hectares of paddy fields. According to the FAO, assessments are still underway to determine the exact level of damage. Heavy rainfall is expected in some areas until mid-February. Southern regions received lesser rainfall at the start of the cropping season in October 2014 leading to concerns of reduced cereal output and increased food insecurity from these regions.
Inadequate funding for the final third year of the anti-locust campaign is expected to disrupt operations leading to further rice crop damage and losses.
Madagascar's paddy rice production has increased about 10% to around 4 million tons in 2014 from around 3.6 million tons in 2013 despite uneven rains in the south and impact of locusts. The increase is attributed to favorable weather conditions in the main rice producing regions of the central and northern regions coupled with an increase in paddy rice acreage.Average prices of local rice and imported rice started in

Government of Sri Lanka May not Increase Paddy Purchase Price

Feb 12, 2015
The government of Sri Lanka may not increase the paddy purchase price from the current Rs.50 per kilogram (around $377 per Ton), local sources quoted the Minister of Food Security as saying. The Minister told local sources that the Cabinet has been recommended to maintain the guaranteed paddy purchase price at the existing level. Earlier, the government had plans to increase the guaranteed paddy purchase price due to a reduction in production followed by drought.
However, it is understood that the government has decided to retain the paddy purchase price at existing level due to low prices of wheat flour and bread. Some Parliamentarians expressed doubt if the government would sustain the paddy purchasing price at Rs. 50 per kilogram without lowering it.The government earlier announced that it would intervene in the market if needed to curb unnecessary price hikes.
Domestic rice prices have been increasing since May 2014 and reached record highs of about Rs.78,780 (around $600) per tons in October 2014. They reversed in November due to increased supplies from ongoing harvests of Maha main rice crop (September – April). In December they declined for the second consecutive month. According to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), average retail price of white rice reached around LKR 78,120 (around $600) per ton in December 2014, slightly down from around LKR 78,670 (around $600) per ton in November 2014, and up about 29% from around LKR 60,440 (around $460) per ton in December 2013.USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.7 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 3.97 million tons, basis paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015).

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Open Higher on Supportive Export Sales and Surging Crude

Feb 12, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 4 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $10.420 per cwt (about $230 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading with mixed results: soybeans are currently seen about 0.3% higher, wheat is listed about 0.7% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.1% lower.U.S. stock opened higher on Thursday as investors were encouraged by a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, shaking off lack of resolution in Greece and weaker-than-expected U.S. data.
The S&P 500 touched a high for 2015, and the Nasdaq Composite opened up at its highest level since March 2000. Futures trimmed some gains as retail sales for January came in weaker than expected, down 0.8 percent and near December's 0.9% decline. Retail sales ex-autos declined 0.9%, though when excluding vehicles and gasoline, sales posted a moderate increase to 0.1% last month after a 0.3% drop in December. Jobless claims were 304,000 last week, more than expected and an increase of 25,000 from last week. Greece was unable to reach a deal with the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, the Eurogroup's Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Wednesday, noting talks will continue on Monday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 4.73 points, or 0.12%, at 17,886.07. The S&P 500 opened up 7.71 points, or 0.37%, at 2,076.30, with information technology leading gains and telecommunications the only laggard. The Nasdaq opened up 30 points, or 0.63%, at 4,831.12. Gold is currently trading about 0.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 4.1% higher,  and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.6% lower at 8:30am Chicago time.

Philippines NFA Steps Up Efforts to Increase Paddy Procurement

Feb 12, 2015
The National Food Authority (NFA) Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization is encouraging farmers to sell their paddy output to the agency, according to a news release on the Philippines government website.According to the news release, the NFA has fixed the paddy procurement price at around P17 per kilogram (around $384 per ton) but has decided to provide other incentives to farmers taking the total price to around P17.7 per kilogram (around $399 per ton). The incentives include P0.2 per kilogram ($4.5 per ton) delivery incentive, P0.2 per kilogram (around $4.5 per ton) drying incentive and P0.3 per kilogram (around $6.8 per ton) Cooperative Incentive Fee.
The NFA announced that it is opening 413 buying stations nationwide to buy paddy from farmers and called on all the farmers to utilize this opportunity to increase their incomes as farm gate prices have fallen to P14 - P16 per kilogram (around $316 - $361 per ton). The NFA Administrator noted that mobile procurement stations are being deployed for helping farmers who cannot transport their output to the buying stations.Recently, farmers are reportedly getting attracted to selling their output to private traders who have been offering around P18.9 per kilogram (around $426 per ton).
The NFA aims to purchase 189,845 metric tons (MT) of the unhusked rice from January to June 2015. NFA has already procured 89,497 50-kilogram bags of paddy (4,475 tons of paddy) as of February 9, 2015.The NFA usually procures about 7-8% of total paddy output to maintain buffer stocks and ensure price stability. Philippines paddy production reached about 18.97 million tons in 2014. The NFA imports rice as and when the rice stocks fall below the buffer norms.
The NFA imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. This year, the NFA is planning to initially import 500,000 tons of rice to ensure adequate stocks in the lean season (June  - August).

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Market Seen Steady as Buy/Sell Remains Limited

Feb 12, 2015
The U.S. cash market held steady today despite impressive export sales figures as a majority of the new business was up of medium grain sales to Asia.Analysts insist that farmers will continue to hold out for better prices until they are forced to sell to either create bin space or to get financing for next year’s crop while see little interest in paying up today as prices have declined every month since the beginning of the marketing year.
In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on February 5, totaled 125,600 tons, which was considerably higher than last week and 88% higher than the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for the following destinations: 68,400 tons to Japan, 24,200 tons to South Korea, 10,100 tons to Mexico, 8,500 tons to unknown destinations, 5,000 tons to Colombia, while net sales of 100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 26,800 tons, which was 56% lower than last week and 67% lower than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included 10,800 tons to Honduras, 6,400 tons to Mexico, 3,600 tons to South Korea, 2,100 tons to Saudi Arabia, and 2,000 tons to Canada.

Restoration of Duty Drawback Facility on Rice Exports Brings Cheers to Indian Exporters

Feb 12, 2015
The government of India has announced that it is restoring the duty drawback facility on rice exports after seven years, according to local sources.The Finance Ministry has allowed rice exporters to claim duty drawback on the brand rate basis. According to official sources, exporters have to seek rate (of the duty drawback) approval from the Finance Ministry individually.The duty drawback facility allows exporters to claim back the customs and excise duties paid on inputs used in the processing of rice. The announcement brought cheers among the exporters, but some of them noted that the facility could have been extended on All-industry basis rather than on only brand basis.
The Executive Director of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA) noted that they had been demanding for restoring the duty drawback facility since it was withdrawn in 2008. He noted that exporters of maize and wheat have been enjoying this facility all these years.India exported 10.9 million tons of rice, including 3.7 million tons of basmati and around 7.2 million tons of non-basmati, in 2013-14 (April - March), up about 7% from around 10.15 million tons in 2012-13. 

South Korea Seeks to Buy 44,000 Tons of Non-Glutinous Rice in Tender

Feb 12, 2015
South Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) is seeking to buy about 44,000 tons of non-glutinous rice in tender for delivery by May 31, 2015, according to a statement on its website.KAFTC seeks to buy 22,000 tons of U.S. origin non-glutinous short grain brown rice and 22,000 tons of U.S. origin non-glutinous medium grain brown rice.Registration of tender will close at 4.00 p.m on February 25, 2015 and electronic bidding will take place on February 26, 2015 between 10.00 - 11.00 a.m.KAFTC bought 35,000 tons of non-glutinous rice from Vietnam and the U.S. in tenders on February 10, 2015.

Thailand May Sell At least 500,000 Tons of Rice from One Million Tons Auctioned

Feb 12, 2015
Thailand may sell at least 500,000 tons of rice to winning bidders from the one million tons auctioned on January 29, 2015, Bloomberg quoted the Thai Prime Minister as saying. The Prime Minister noted that around 300,000 - 400,000 tons received bids from companies that are involved in the ongoing legal cases linked to the previous government's rice pledging scheme.
He added that the government is assessing the status of those bidders. On February 9, 2015, the Department of Foreign Trade said it would submit the names of the winning bidders to the Rice Policy Committee after examining their credentials.The Thai Commerce Ministry is keen on selling around 10 million tons of stockpiled rice in 2015 and around 7 million tons in 2016 through tenders. Thailand's military government sold around 681,740 tons of rice in last four auctions raising around 6.36 billion baht (around $195 million) after it took charge on May 22, 2014. The Thai government currently holds around 17.8 million tons of rice in its stockpiles.Thailand exported around 10.97 million tons of rice in 2014, up about 66% from around 6.6 million tons in 2013

Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged

Feb 12, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $355 - $365 per ton and lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $320 - $330 per ton and around $300 - $310 per ton respectively. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 5% rice is quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $345 - $355 per ton.
25% Broken Rice 
Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 25% rice is quoted at around $360 - $370, about $55 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $305 - $315 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $390 - $400 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton,  about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Thai Rice Exporters Fear Drought to Impact 2015 Exports

Feb 12, 2015
The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has expressed concern that this year's rice exports may be hit severely if the ongoing drought intensifies in April and reduces the off-season paddy rice output by 1-2 million tons, according to local sources.The TREA noted that a lower production scenario would lead to demand supply imbalance thereby pushing up local prices. In such a case, export prices would be affected making Thai rice uncompetitive in the global market.
Thailand, which exported 10.97 million tons of rice in 2014, is targeting to export 11 million tons of rice in 2015. The Commerce Ministry and the TREA are working together to formulate strategies to reach the target and help the South-East nation retain the top exporter status.In its latest report on production estimates, the Office of the Agricultural Economics (OAE) estimated the output from the 2014-15 secondary/off-season crop at around 6.7 million tons (around 4.4 million tons, basis milled), down about 31% from around 9.75 million tons (around 6.4 million tons, basis milled) last year.
The OAE has estimated the country's total paddy rice output for 2014-15 at around 33.8 million tons (around 22.3 million tons, basis milled), down about 8% from around 36.8 million tons (around 24.3 million tons, basis milled) last year.A rice production loss could be a boon for the government of Thailand, especially at a time when it is trying sell its huge rice stockpiles accumulated under the previous government’s rice pledging scheme. However, this drought has so far only affected a small percentage of paddy production and thus is unlikely to support prices immediately.  

FAO forecasts Cuba 2014 Paddy Rice Production to Increase 4% y/y to 700,000 Tons

Feb 12, 2015
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates Cuba's 2014 paddy rice production at around 700,000 tons (around 455,000 tons, basis milled), up about 4% from around 673,000 tons (around 437,000, basis milled) produced in 2013 due to higher sowings in both main (February - December) and second (November - July) seasons. According to the FAO, harvesting for the 2014 main season harvest concluded in December.
The FAO forecasts Cuba's cereal imports, including those of rice, to decline about 1.5% to around 2.03 million tons in 2014-15 (July - June) from an estimated 2.061 million tons exported in 2013-14.USDA estimates Cuba MY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production at around 700,000 tons (around 455,000 tons, basis milled), up about 7.5% from around 651,000 tons (around 423,000 tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. It estimates Cuba 2014-15 imports to increase about 12.5% to around 450,000 tons from last year's 400,000 tons.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook

Feb 12, 2015
In India, a few showers are expected across West Bengal and Odisha on Thursday. Weather is expected to remain dry from Friday toSunday.
Rain is expected across Indonesia on Thursday and Friday.
Dry weather is expected across Pakistan during this week.
Isolated rain showers are expected across Bangladesh on Thursday and Friday.
A few rain showers are expected across Vietnam during Thursday and Saturday.
Weather is expected to remain dry in Thailand on Thursday. Light rain is expected on Friday and Saturday there.

 

Thai NACC to Recommend Legal Action in G2G Rice Deals with China

Feb 12, 2015

Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is likely to recommend to the Commerce and Finance Ministries to file a civil suit against the 21 state officials and employees of private firms, including the former Commerce Minister and the former Deputy Commerce Minister, for alleged corruption in rice export deals with two Chinese firms, according to local sources. In its investigation, the NACC found that both the Ministers are accused of falsifying G2G rice deals for  about 1.2 million tons between Thailand and China in 2013. The agency noted that the deal never happened and the rice was sold locally. It stated that the rice was sold to two China-based companies at prices lower than the pledging price, who in turn sold it to a Thai private company to resell. The NACC said the two companies were not acting on behalf of the China government.
The NACC President told local sources that the misdealings have caused losses to the exchequer to the extent of 600 billion baht (around $18.3 billion) and therefore under Section 73/1 of the 1999 Organic Act on Counter-Corruption, the NACC would advise the Commerce and Finance Ministries to seek damages from the accused.He also noted that the NACC would forward its investigation report on the G2G rice deals to the Office of the Attorney-General on February 16, 2015, recommending prosecution of the 21 suspects in the court.
Thailand's National Legislative Assembly (NLA) impeached the former Prime Minister on January 23, 2015 for encouraging corruption in the controversial rice pledging scheme introduced by her government in October 2011. She is also facing criminal charges for her role in the corruption-plagued rice-pledging scheme. If found guilty, she may face a jail term up to ten years.


Global Rice Quotes
February 12th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade   415-425                ↔
Vietnam 5% broken        355-365                ↑
India 5% broken               395-405                ↔
Pakistan 5% broken        345-355                ↔
Myanmar 5% broken      415-425                ↑
Cambodia 5% broken     430-440                ↔
U.S. 4% broken                 480-490                ↔
Uruguay 5% broken        NQ         ↔
Argentina 5% broken     NQ         ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken      365-375                ↔
Vietnam 25% broken      320-330                ↓
Pakistan 25% broken      305-315                ↔
Cambodia 25% broken   410-420                ↔
India 25% broken             360-370                ↔
U.S. 15% broken               470-480                ↔

Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd     405-415                ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd          385-395                ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd                 390-400                ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken             555-565                ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken          570-580                ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken    NQ         ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92%   920-930                ↔
Vietnam Jasmine             445-455                ↔
India basmati 2% broken              NQ         ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken       NQ         ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails     785-795                ↔

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super            320-330                ↔
Vietnam 100% broken   300-310                ↓
Pakistan 100% broken stxd          275-285                ↔
Cambodia A1 Super        365-375                ↔
India 100% broken stxd                 295-305                ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens      NQ         ↔
U.S. pet food     380-390                ↔
Brazil half grain NQ         ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

No comments:

Post a Comment