Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Give Back Gains Earned
Overnight as Market Fails to Find Follow-through Buying
Feb 12, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton)
lower at $10.330 per cwt (about $228 per ton). Rough rice futures
retraced slightly today as the market was unable to build on gains earned
overnight and in the previous session as the market now faces technical
resistance around $10.400 per cwt (about $229 per ton) from the 10-day moving
average. Traders will likely keep an eye out for a close above this downwardly
sloping level of resistance as a short term signal that the market has indeed
put in a near-term low and that a recovery is underway.
In
the meantime the market will likely continue to experience choppy
back-and-forth trading as until a new trend is formed. The other grains
finished the day with mixed results as wheat and corn slipped while soy logged
modest gains; Soybeans closed about 0.6% higher at $9.8375 per bushel; wheat
finished about 0.9% lower at $5.2125 per bushel, and corn finished the day
about 0.7% lower at $3.8300 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday as
investors cheered a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine and firming
oil prices. Greece was unable to reach a deal with the European Union to stay
in an EU bailout program, the Eurogroup's Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on
Wednesday, noting talks will continue on Monday. The Nasdaq traded more than 1
percent higher after opening at its highest level since March 2000, the peak of
the dotcom bubble. Apple continued to trade at all-time highs.
Better-than-expected earnings from Cisco and other firms in the U.S. and Europe
boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 at a high for 2015. Jobless claims were
304,000 last week, more than expected and an increase of 25,000 from last week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 83
points, or 0.47%, at 17,495. The S&P 500 traded up 15 points, or 0.73%, to
2,083, with information technology leading gains and utilities leading two
laggards. The Nasdaq traded up 44 points, or 0.93%, to 4,845. Gold is trading
about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.9% higher, and the U.S.
dollar is seen trading about 0.8% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago
time.Wednesday, there were 1,686 contracts traded, down from 2,340 contracts
traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on
Wednesday decreased by 263 contracts to 10,180.
FAO Forecasts Mixed Prospects for Madagascar 2015 Paddy Rice
Production
Feb 12, 2015
The
UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that prospects for 2015
rice production are mixed because of heavy rains in western, central and
eastern parts due to cyclone Chedza on one hand and dry conditions in the
southern regions on the other. Harvesting of 2015 main rice crop (October -
June) will begin in April and may extend till June.
The
cyclone Chedza, which traversed the southern areas in mid January 2015, led to
heavy rainfall across large parts of the country, causing flooding and damaging
nearly 24,000 hectares of paddy fields. According to the FAO, assessments are
still underway to determine the exact level of damage. Heavy rainfall is
expected in some areas until mid-February. Southern regions received lesser
rainfall at the start of the cropping season in October 2014 leading to
concerns of reduced cereal output and increased food insecurity from these
regions.
Inadequate
funding for the final third year of the anti-locust campaign is expected to
disrupt operations leading to further rice crop damage and losses.
Madagascar's
paddy rice production has increased about 10% to around 4 million tons in 2014
from around 3.6 million tons in 2013 despite uneven rains in the south and
impact of locusts. The increase is attributed to favorable weather conditions
in the main rice producing regions of the central and northern regions coupled
with an increase in paddy rice acreage.Average prices of local rice and
imported rice started in
Government of Sri Lanka May not Increase Paddy Purchase Price
Feb 12, 2015
However,
it is understood that the government has decided to retain the paddy purchase
price at existing level due to low prices of wheat flour and bread. Some
Parliamentarians expressed doubt if the government would sustain the paddy
purchasing price at Rs. 50 per kilogram without lowering it.The government
earlier announced that it would intervene in the market if needed to curb
unnecessary price hikes.
Domestic
rice prices have been increasing since May 2014 and reached record highs of
about Rs.78,780 (around $600) per tons in October 2014. They reversed in
November due to increased supplies from ongoing harvests of Maha main rice crop
(September – April). In December they declined for the second consecutive
month. According to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), average
retail price of white rice reached around LKR 78,120 (around $600) per ton in
December 2014, slightly down from around LKR 78,670 (around $600) per ton in
November 2014, and up about 29% from around LKR 60,440 (around $460) per ton in
December 2013.USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.7 million tons of
rice, basis milled (around 3.97 million tons, basis paddy) and import around
120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015).
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Open Higher on
Supportive Export Sales and Surging Crude
Feb 12, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 4 cents per cwt (about
$1 per ton) higher at $10.420 per cwt (about $230 per ton) during early floor
trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading with mixed results:
soybeans are currently seen about 0.3% higher, wheat is listed about 0.7% lower
and corn is currently noted about 0.1% lower.U.S. stock opened higher on
Thursday as investors were encouraged by a cease-fire agreement between Russia
and Ukraine, shaking off lack of resolution in Greece and weaker-than-expected
U.S. data.
The
S&P 500 touched a high for 2015, and the Nasdaq Composite opened up at its
highest level since March 2000. Futures trimmed some gains as retail sales for
January came in weaker than expected, down 0.8 percent and near December's 0.9%
decline. Retail sales ex-autos declined 0.9%, though when excluding vehicles
and gasoline, sales posted a moderate increase to 0.1% last month after a 0.3%
drop in December. Jobless claims were 304,000 last week, more than expected and
an increase of 25,000 from last week. Greece was unable to reach a deal with
the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, the Eurogroup's Jeroen
Dijsselbloem said on Wednesday, noting talks will continue on Monday.
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 4.73 points, or 0.12%, at 17,886.07. The
S&P 500 opened up 7.71 points, or 0.37%, at 2,076.30, with information
technology leading gains and telecommunications the only laggard. The Nasdaq
opened up 30 points, or 0.63%, at 4,831.12. Gold is currently trading about
0.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 4.1% higher, and the U.S.
dollar is currently trading about 0.6% lower at 8:30am Chicago time.
Philippines NFA Steps Up Efforts to Increase Paddy Procurement
Feb 12, 2015
The
National Food Authority (NFA) Presidential Assistant for Food Security and
Agricultural Modernization is encouraging farmers to sell their paddy output to
the agency, according to a news release on the Philippines government
website.According to the news release, the NFA has fixed the paddy procurement
price at around P17 per kilogram (around $384 per ton) but has decided to
provide other incentives to farmers taking the total price to around P17.7 per
kilogram (around $399 per ton). The incentives include P0.2 per kilogram
($4.5 per ton) delivery incentive, P0.2 per kilogram (around $4.5 per ton)
drying incentive and P0.3 per kilogram (around $6.8 per ton) Cooperative
Incentive Fee.
The
NFA announced that it is opening 413 buying stations nationwide to buy paddy
from farmers and called on all the farmers to utilize this opportunity to
increase their incomes as farm gate prices have fallen to P14 - P16 per
kilogram (around $316 - $361 per ton). The NFA Administrator noted that
mobile procurement stations are being deployed for helping farmers who
cannot transport their output to the buying stations.Recently, farmers are
reportedly getting attracted to selling their output to private traders who
have been offering around P18.9 per kilogram (around $426 per ton).
The
NFA aims to purchase 189,845 metric tons (MT) of the unhusked rice from January
to June 2015. NFA has already procured 89,497 50-kilogram bags of paddy
(4,475 tons of paddy) as of February 9, 2015.The NFA usually procures about
7-8% of total paddy output to maintain buffer stocks and ensure price
stability. Philippines paddy production reached about 18.97 million tons in
2014. The NFA imports rice as and when the rice stocks fall below the buffer
norms.
The
NFA imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of
2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish
rice stocks and control price hikes. This year, the NFA is planning to
initially import 500,000 tons of rice to ensure adequate stocks in the lean
season (June - August).
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Market Seen Steady as Buy/Sell Remains
Limited
Feb 12, 2015
The U.S. cash market
held steady today despite impressive export sales figures as a majority of the
new business was up of medium grain sales to Asia.Analysts insist that farmers
will continue to hold out for better prices until they are forced to sell to
either create bin space or to get financing for next year’s crop while see
little interest in paying up today as prices have declined every month since
the beginning of the marketing year.
In
the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week
ending on February 5, totaled 125,600 tons, which was considerably higher than
last week and 88% higher than the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported
for the following destinations: 68,400 tons to Japan, 24,200 tons to South
Korea, 10,100 tons to Mexico, 8,500 tons to unknown destinations, 5,000 tons to
Colombia, while net sales of 100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan.
U.S.
rice exporters shipped 26,800 tons, which was 56% lower than last week and 67%
lower than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations
included 10,800 tons to Honduras, 6,400 tons to Mexico, 3,600 tons to
South Korea, 2,100 tons to Saudi Arabia, and 2,000 tons to Canada.
Restoration of Duty Drawback Facility on Rice Exports Brings Cheers to
Indian Exporters
Feb 12, 2015
The
Executive Director of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA) noted
that they had been demanding for restoring the duty drawback facility since it
was withdrawn in 2008. He noted that exporters of maize and wheat have been
enjoying this facility all these years.India exported 10.9 million tons of
rice, including 3.7 million tons of basmati and around 7.2 million tons of
non-basmati, in 2013-14 (April - March), up about 7% from around 10.15 million
tons in 2012-13.
South Korea Seeks to Buy 44,000 Tons of Non-Glutinous Rice in Tender
Feb 12, 2015
South
Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) is
seeking to buy about 44,000 tons of non-glutinous rice in tender for delivery
by May 31, 2015, according to a statement on its website.KAFTC seeks to buy
22,000 tons of U.S. origin non-glutinous short grain brown rice and 22,000 tons
of U.S. origin non-glutinous medium grain brown rice.Registration of
tender will close at 4.00 p.m on February 25, 2015 and electronic bidding
will take place on February 26, 2015 between 10.00 - 11.00 a.m.KAFTC bought
35,000 tons of non-glutinous rice from Vietnam and the U.S. in tenders on
February 10, 2015.
Thailand May Sell At least 500,000 Tons of Rice from One Million Tons
Auctioned
Feb 12, 2015
He
added that the government is assessing the status of those bidders. On
February 9, 2015, the Department of Foreign Trade said it would submit the
names of the winning bidders to the Rice Policy Committee after examining their
credentials.The Thai Commerce Ministry is keen on selling around 10 million
tons of stockpiled rice in 2015 and around 7 million tons in 2016 through
tenders. Thailand's military government sold around 681,740 tons of rice in
last four auctions raising around 6.36 billion baht (around $195 million) after
it took charge on May 22, 2014. The Thai government currently holds around 17.8
million tons of rice in its stockpiles.Thailand exported around 10.97 million
tons of rice in 2014, up about 66% from around 6.6 million tons in 2013
Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Feb 12, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers
increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $355 -
$365 per ton and lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice
by about $5 per ton each to around $320 - $330 per ton and around $300 - $310
per ton respectively. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly
unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Vietnam 5%
rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 5% rice is quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton, about $50 per ton
premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $345 - $355 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Vietnam 25%
rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 25% rice is quoted at around $360 - $370, about $55 per ton premium on
Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $305 - $315 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at
around $390 - $400 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan parboiled rice
quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken
rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $20 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, down
about $5 per ton from yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around
$295 - $305 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan broken
sortexed rice quoted at around $275 - $285 per ton.
Thai Rice Exporters Fear Drought to Impact 2015 Exports
Feb 12, 2015
Thailand,
which exported 10.97 million tons of rice in 2014, is targeting to export 11
million tons of rice in 2015. The Commerce Ministry and the TREA are working
together to formulate strategies to reach the target and help the South-East
nation retain the top exporter status.In its latest report on production
estimates, the Office of the Agricultural Economics (OAE) estimated the output
from the 2014-15 secondary/off-season crop at around 6.7 million tons (around
4.4 million tons, basis milled), down about 31% from around 9.75 million tons (around
6.4 million tons, basis milled) last year.
The
OAE has estimated the country's total paddy rice output for 2014-15 at around
33.8 million tons (around 22.3 million tons, basis milled), down about 8% from
around 36.8 million tons (around 24.3 million tons, basis milled) last year.A
rice production loss could be a boon for the government of Thailand, especially
at a time when it is trying sell its huge rice stockpiles accumulated under the
previous government’s rice pledging scheme. However, this drought has so far
only affected a small percentage of paddy production and thus is unlikely to
support prices immediately.
FAO forecasts Cuba 2014 Paddy Rice Production to Increase 4% y/y to 700,000
Tons
Feb 12, 2015
The
UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates Cuba's 2014 paddy rice
production at around 700,000 tons (around 455,000 tons, basis milled), up about
4% from around 673,000 tons (around 437,000, basis milled) produced in 2013 due
to higher sowings in both main (February - December) and second (November -
July) seasons. According to the FAO, harvesting for the 2014 main season
harvest concluded in December.
The
FAO forecasts Cuba's cereal imports, including those of rice, to decline about
1.5% to around 2.03 million tons in 2014-15 (July - June) from an estimated
2.061 million tons exported in 2013-14.USDA estimates Cuba MY 2014-15 (July -
June) paddy rice production at around 700,000 tons (around 455,000 tons, basis
milled), up about 7.5% from around 651,000 tons (around 423,000 tons, basis
milled) produced in the previous year. It estimates Cuba 2014-15 imports to
increase about 12.5% to around 450,000 tons from last year's 400,000 tons.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Feb 12, 2015
In India, a few showers are expected across West Bengal and
Odisha on Thursday. Weather is expected to remain dry from Friday toSunday.
Rain is
expected across Indonesia
on Thursday and Friday.
Dry
weather is expected across Pakistan during this week.
Isolated
rain showers are expected across Bangladesh on Thursday and Friday.
A few
rain showers are expected across Vietnam during Thursday and Saturday.
Weather
is expected to remain dry in Thailand on Thursday. Light rain is expected on Friday and
Saturday there.
Thai NACC to Recommend Legal
Action in G2G Rice Deals with China
Feb 12, 2015
The
NACC President told local sources that the misdealings have caused losses to
the exchequer to the extent of 600 billion baht (around $18.3 billion) and
therefore under Section 73/1 of the 1999 Organic Act on Counter-Corruption, the
NACC would advise the Commerce and Finance Ministries to seek damages from the
accused.He also noted that the NACC would forward its investigation report on
the G2G rice deals to the Office of the Attorney-General on February 16, 2015,
recommending prosecution of the 21 suspects in the court.
Thailand's
National Legislative Assembly (NLA) impeached the former Prime Minister on
January 23, 2015 for encouraging corruption in the controversial rice pledging
scheme introduced by her government in October 2011. She is also facing
criminal charges for her role in the corruption-plagued rice-pledging scheme. If
found guilty, she may face a jail term up to ten years.
Global
Rice Quotes
February 12th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 415-425
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 355-365
↑
India 5% broken 395-405
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 345-355
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425
↑
Cambodia 5% broken 430-440
↔
U.S. 4% broken 480-490
↔
Uruguay 5% broken NQ
↔
Argentina 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 365-375
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 320-330
↓
Pakistan 25% broken 305-315
↔
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420
↔
India 25% broken 360-370
↔
U.S. 15% broken 470-480
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 920-930
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 445-455
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 785-795
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 320-330
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 300-310
↓
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 365-375
↔
India 100% broken stxd 295-305
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 380-390
↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton,
FOB vessel, oryza.com
Contents are published
with permission of ORYZA.com
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