FAO
Estimates Malaysia 2014-15 Rice Imports to Increase to 1.1 Million Tons
Apr 24, 2015
The UN's Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) estimates Malaysia 2014-15 (July - June) rice imports to
increase to 1.1 million tons due to strong consumption demand and the
government's efforts to replenish stocks. In 2014, Malaysia's rice imports
increased about 24% y/y from their below-average level in 2013.It estimates
Malaysia's total cereal imports, including rice, to increase about 6% to around
6.4 million from around 5.99 million tons last year.The FAO estimates
Malaysia's 2015 paddy rice production at around 2.6 million tons (around 1.69
million tons, basis milled
), slightly above last year's
production of about 2.5 million tons (around 1.62 million tons, basis milled)
due to favorable weather conditions and continued government support to the
rice sector, including subsidies for agricultural inputs.USDA estimates
Malaysia to produce about 2.769 million tons of paddy (around 1.8 million tons,
basis milled) and import around one million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January
2015 - December 2015)
FAO
Forecasts Laos 2015 Paddy Rice Production to Increase 3% y/y to 3.4 Million
Tons
Apr
24, 2015
The UN's Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO) has forecasted Laos 2015 paddy rice production to increase
about 3% y/y to around 3.4 million tons (around 2.1 million tons, basis milled)
from an estimated 3.3 million tons (around 2 million tons, basis milled) last
year.
Planting of the 2015 main (wet)
season paddy crop (May - December) will begin in mid-May and will continue till
July.According to USDA, usually Laos imports around 10,000 tons or rice to meet
the local annual consumption demand of around 1.58 million tons. However, this
year, FAO forecasts Laos to be self-sufficiency in rice production without the
need to import rice.
Laos is in fact aiming to
increase rice production by around one million tons and become an exporter of
rice by 2015.USDA estimates Laos' MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014)
paddy rice production to increase about 5.8% to around 2.46 million tons
(around 1.55 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 2.325 million tons
(around 1.465 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2012-13. It estimates Laos to
import around 10,000 tons of rice in 2014, unchanged from last year.
IGC
Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade at 41.4 Million Tons; Slightly Down from Last
year
Apr
24, 2015
The International Grains Council
(IGC) forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 41.4 million tons, down about 4% from around 43
million tons in 2014 as a reduction in imports to Far Eastern countries are
likely to fall by 6% y/y to around 12.9 million tons. Shipments to South Asian
markets such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are expected to decline this year.
However, shipments to traditional buyers, including Indonesia and the
Philippines, are likely to be significant. The IGC expects China to remain
largest importer in 2015 with about 3.9 million tons.
On the exports side, the IGC estimates Thailand to export around 11 million
tons of rice and Vietnam to export 6.1 million tons of rice in 2015. However,
it expects India's exports to fall by about 21% y/y to around 8.8 million tons
amid falling supplies and stiff competition from Thailand, Vietnam and
Pakistan.
The IGC estimates 2014-15 global
rice production at around 474 million tons,
slightly down from around 476 million tons in 2013-14 due to an expected
decline in major rice exporting countries, including India and Thailand. It
expects India's rice production to decline 3.5% y/y to around 103 million tons.
The IGC is expecting lower output in Thailand (at around 19 million tons) due
to a decline in output from off-season crop. However, the IGC is estimating
U.S. production to increase about 16% to around 7.1 million tons.
It expects global
rice consumption in 2014-15 to increase to around
483 million tons, up about 1% from around 479 million tons in 2013-14 due to
expected increased consumption in Asian countries including India and China as
well as Sub-Saharan African countries.The Council expects global
rice ending stocks in 2014-15 to decline to about
8% to around 100 million tons from around 109 million tons in the previous
year. It expects inventories of major rice exporters to decline to around 30
million tons, down 20% from around 39.4 million tons last year mainly due to
higher stock depletion in India and Thailand.
Bangladesh
Food Ministry Seeks Import Duty on Rice Amid Falling Domestic Prices
Apr
24, 2015
Bangladesh Food Ministry has
sought for the imposition of duty on rice imports in the wake of increasing
rice imports and falling domestic paddy and rice prices, according to local
sources.The Ministry reportedly sent a letter to the National Board of Revenue
(NBR) last fortnight seeking import duty on rice in order to ensure fair price
to farmers. It apprised the NBR that the price of rice in the domestic market
was declining for last couple of months due to increasing imports from
India.Currently, the government of Bangladesh imposes no duty on imports of
coarse and medium quality rice, but imposes a duty of 5% on aromatic rice imports,
according to local sources. Some farmers' associations are demanding for
immediate imposition of duty as boro harvesting would reach its peaks shortly.
Bangladesh's private sector
imported about 1.29 million tons of rice in July 1, 2014 - April 21, 2015,
nearly 3.5 times more than 374,560 tons of rice imported in the entire 2013-14
fiscal year (July - June) and highest in the last four years since 2010-11,
according to data from the Ministry of Food. The Ministry shows that the
government has so far not imported any rice in this fiscal despite setting a
target to import about 200,000 tons of rice in the fiscal year 2014-15 to
replenish falling stocks in the country.
Farmers are deprived of decent
prices during the ongoing Boro (January - May) harvest. They are expecting an
output of around 18.9 million tons from the 2015 Boro crop, which accounts for
55% of the country’s total production. Prices normally decline during the
harvest time but this time increasing imports are putting more downward pressure
on the prices, say millers. According to local sources, prices of medium
quality rice in India stood at about Tk 24.5-25.2 per kilogram (around
$314-$323 per ton) in March 2015 compared to Tk 27 per kilogram (around $346
per ton) of the same quality rice in Dhaka. Due to this price differential,
traders have been preferring to import medium-quality rice variety
"Swarna" from India at low prices and selling at high prices locally.
However, farmers and millers are forced to lower their prices to compete with imported
rice.
The government's procurement of
Boro rice from May 1, 2015 is likely to provide a cushion to farmers against
falling prices. The government is planning to procure one million tons of 2015
Boro paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31,
2015. It has fixed the procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram
(around $283 per ton) and that for rice at Tk 32 per kilogram (around $412 per
ton).Bangladesh produced around 34.449 million tons of rice, basis milled, in FY
2013-14 (July - June), up about 2.7% from around 33.833 million tons produced
in FY 2012-13, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
India
2014-15 Rabi Rice Planting Reaches 4.066 Million Hectares as of April 24, 2015;
Down 9% from Last Year
Apr
24, 2015
Planting for India 2014-15 rabi
(secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around 4.066 million
hectares as of April 24, 2015; down about 9% from around 4.485 million hectares
planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data
released by the Indian Agriculture Ministry.The decline is reportedly due to
untimely rains in some part of the rabi rice growing areas.
The government of India, in its
second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production
for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04
million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14,
according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry. It estimates around
88.02 million tons from kharif rice crop and around 15.02 million tons from
rabi rice crop.
Oryza
U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Look Steady ahead of Iraqi Tender
Apr
24, 2015
The U.S. cash market was
unchanged today with very little trading to report as most sellers remain
unconcerned about falling bids and limited demand despite burdensome
stocks.Analysts note that the prospect of the U.S. being awarded a piece of the
latest Iraqi tender has some in the industry hopeful that it would lead to
firming prices. However, as of now, most believe that the chance is no
better than 50/50.
India
Develops New Protein-Rich Rice Using High-Yielding Local Variety “Naveen”
Apr 24, 2015
The Central Rice Research
Institute (CRRI) has developed a protein-rich rice variety by crossing a protein-rich
germplasm with a high-yielding local rice variety called "Naveen",
according to local sources.The Director of the CRRI told local sources that the
new variety has 10.5% protein content, which is about 3% higher than that found
in normal varieties. He noted that the new variety is high-yielding as well as
tolerant to certain diseases. He added that the scientists are planning to
increase the protein content as well as yield of the new variety by cross
breeding it with high-yielding varieties. Presently, the new variety
yields about 5.5 tons per hectare and is well-suited to grow in the Indian
eastern states, said the CRRI Director.
The CRRI Director also noted that
normally farmers are not that inclined to adopt such new varieties as the yield
provided by them is very low. He added that the institute is planning to carry
out an awareness drive to encourage the farmers to adopt the new protein-rich
variety. He expressed confidence that farmers would be easily convinced as
"Naveen" rice variety was quite popular among farmers in eastern
states.The new variety, which is yet to get a name, is cleared by the Variety
Identification Committee under the Ministry of Agriculture. The CRRI is
planning to release the new variety for cultivation within the next two months.The
CRRI is also working towards developing flood and saline-resistant rice
varieties as well. So far, the institute developed 115 rice varieties,
according to the CRRI Director.
Weekly
Recap: Oryza White Rice Index Continues to Weaken
Apr
24, 2015
The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI),
a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about
$409 per ton, down about $1 per ton from a week ago, down about $7 per ton from
a month ago and down about $43 per ton from a year ago.The International Grains
Council (IGC) forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 41.4 million tons, down about 4% from around 43
million tons in 2014 as a reduction in imports to Far Eastern countries are
likely to fall by 6% y/y to around 12.9 million tons. Shipments to South Asian
markets such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are expected to decline this year.
However, shipments to traditional buyers, including Indonesia and the
Philippines, are likely to be significant. The IGC expects China to remain
largest importer in 2015 with about 3.9 million tons. On the exports side, the IGC estimates Thailand to export around 11 million
tons of rice and Vietnam to export 6.1 million tons of rice in 2015. However,
it expects India's exports to fall by about 21% y/y to around 8.8 million tons
amid falling supplies and stiff competition from Thailand, Vietnam and
Pakistan. The IGC estimates 2014-15 global rice production at around 474 million tons, slightly down from around 476
million tons in 2013-14 due to an expected decline in major rice exporting
countries, including India and Thailand.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today
shown at about $385 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton
from a month ago, and up about $5 per ton from a year ago.A panel of Thailand’s
Supreme Court Judges has decided to accept the case filed by the Office of the
Attorney General against the former Commerce Minister and 20 other individuals
for their alleged corruption in G2G rice deals with two Chinese companies.
The first trial will commence on June 29.
The Commerce Minister reports
that Thailand exported about 2.7 million tons of rice during January-mid-April,
but exports may decline 1% y/y amid still competitions and falling
prices. Thailand is targeting to export about 10 million tons of rice in
2015.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today
shown at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton
from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.During the period
January 1- April 13, Vietnam exported about 1.144 million tons of rice, down
about 35% from the first four months of 2014. Average rice export price
so far this year is about $413 per ton (FOB), down about 5% per ton from April
2014.The UN’s FAO has forecasted Vietnam’s 2015 rice exports to remain at last
year’s below-average level of 6.5 million tons.
India
India 5% broken rice is today
shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $20 per ton
from a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.In the first eleven
months of FY 2014-15 (April-March), India exported about 10.81 million tons of
rice (basmati and non-basmati), an increase of about 8.5% from the same period
in FY 2013-14.The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted
India’s 2015 rice exports to decline about 18% from last year to around 9.3
million tons.
Planting for India 2014-15 rabi
(secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around 4.066 million
hectares as of April 24, 2015; down about 9% from around 4.485 million hectares
planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data
released by the Indian Agriculture Ministry.The Central Rice Research Institute
has developed a protein-rich rice variety which is also high-yielding and tolerant
to certain diseases.
The Food Ministry of Bangladesh is seeking the imposition of duty on rice imports due to
increasing rice imports and falling domestic paddy and rice prices. Separately,
the government of Bangladesh will provide $3.9 million to about 210,000 rice
farmers in 48 districts to help them increase the output from the ongoing Aus
cropping season (February-August).
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today
shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago, up about
$10 per ton from a month ago and down about $40 per ton from a year
ago.Pakistan’s total exports (including basmati and non-basmati) increased
sharply in March 2015, after declining in January and February. Pakistan
exported about 472,357 tons of rice in March 2015.The UN’s FAO estimate
Pakistan’s FY 2014-15 (July-June) paddy rice production will decline about 19%
from last year to 8.437 million tons.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at
about $550 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $115
per ton from a year ago.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $565 per ton, down about $10 per ton
from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $60 per
ton from a year ago.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today
shown at about $485 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down
about $100 per ton from a year ago.
The United States Patent and
Trademark Office has awarded the inventors of the golden rice project with the
2015 Patents for Humanity award on nutrition.
Rice farmers in the state of
California are facing water shortages that may reduce production in 2015,
following a previous reduction in 2014.
The U.S. cash market was mostly
unchanged this week despite weakness in the futures market.
Chicago rough rice futures for
May delivery remained low this week, opening at $9.955 per cwt (about $219 per
ton) on Monday morning and gaining slightly to reach a high of $10.155 per cwt
(about $224 per ton) on Wednesday before continuing a downward slide toward the
end of the week. They closed the week at $9.985 per cwt (about $220 per
ton).
Other Markets
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, down about
$5 per ton from a week ago, up about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about
$5 per ton from a year ago.
Average domestic rice prices in
the Philippines showed diverse trends in March, with retail prices of both
well-milled rice (WMR) and regular-milled rice (RMR) declining and wholesale
prices of WMR and RMR increasing.
The Philippines first quarter paddy
rice output is likely to be below the government forecast of 4.59 million tons
due to unfavorable weather conditions, according to the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics. The Philippines plans to import rice from Myanmar, India, and Pakistan to fulfill the increased demand following a recent cyclone. Myanmar is expected to export around 2 million tons of rice in FY
2015-16 (April - March), up about 11% from around 1.8 million tons exported in
FY 2013-14, the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) was quoted as saying.
During the first three months of
2015, Madagascar imported about 200,000 tons of rice in efforts to compensate
for a likely loss of expected output from cyclones that hit the major rice
producing regions since January this year.
The UN’s FAO has forecasted China’s 2015 rice imports at around 2.7 million tons, similar to last
year’s above-average levels.
The government of Italy has allowed the temporary use of three kinds of herbicides to
control weeds in rice fields during the crop year 2014-15 (September-August).
The government of South
Korea has decided to provide the
increased direct subsidies to rice farmers from this year instead of its
initial plan of providing them from 2017. Separately, South Korea’s state-run
Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) has purchased 72,000 tons
of non-glutinous brown rice of U.S. and Chinese origins for delivery between
August and September. Meanwhile, the government of South Korea plans to procure
77,000 tons of locally produced rice in May to prevent prices from falling as
supplies increase.
The government of Indonesia plans to buy low quality rice from farmers in attempts to
stabilize rice prices.
Rice growers in Australia are confident they may produce 700,000 tons of paddy rice in
2015 due to favorable weather conditions.
The UN’s FAO says rice imports
for Timor-Leste in 2014-15 may double from last year to over 130,000 tons as a
result of reduced output in 2013 and strong domestic demand.
Despite efforts to reach 60%
rice-sufficiency by 2015, Brunei has achieved only 4% so far,
according to local sources.
Syria’s state-purchasing agency has
advanced the deadline for an international tender seeking to buy about 6,360
tons of long-grain white rice to May 4 from May 18.
The UN’s FAO forecasts Laos 2015 paddy rice production will increase about 3% from last
year to 3.4 million tons.
The UN’s FAO estimates Malaysia’s 2014-15 (July-June) rice imports will increase to 1.1 million
tons due to strong consumption demand and the government’s efforts to replenish
stocks.
The International Fund for
Agricultural Development has earmarked around N1.5 billion to boost rice and
cassava production in Nigeria in 2015.
Oryza
Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Dip Back Below $10.000 per cwt as
Bearishness in Neighboring Grains Pits Weigh on Prices
Apr
24, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for
May delivery settled 8 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $9.980 per cwt
(about $220 per ton). The other grains finished the day sharply lower led by a
steep decline in wheat; Soybeans closed about 0.9% lower at $9.7075 per bushel;
wheat finished about 2.5% lower at $4.8850 per bushel, and corn finished the
day about 1.7% lower at $3.6450 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mostly higher
on Friday on continued momentum from Thursday's high levels as investors
cheered major earnings reports. The Nasdaq held gains after opening more than
30 points higher, and the S&P touched a new intraday high, while the Dow
attempted to shake off a decline as its top-weighted stocks lagged. The Nasdaq
Composite outperformed the other major indices on Thursday to set an all-time
closing record, topping the previous high of 5,048.62 set in March 2000. While
the Dow Jones industrial average still has about 1% before surpassing its
record close, the S&P 500 could set a record close. Durable goods,
ex-transportation, fell 0.2%, below expectations for a slight gain but less
than February's 1.3% decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
traded up 30 points, or 0.16%, at 18,086. The S&P 500 traded up 6 points,
or 0.29%, at 2,119, with consumer discretionary leading six sectors higher and
energy the greatest decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 38 points, or 0.74%, at
5,093, above the closing high set on Thursday but still below its record
intraday high of 5,132.52 touched during the tech bubble in March 2000. Gold is
trading about 1.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.4% lower, and the
U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago
time.Thursday, there were 1,920 contracts traded, down from 1,962 contracts
traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on
Thursday decreased by 33 contracts to 11,250.
South
Korea Plans to Procure 77,000 Tons of Locally Produced Rice to Stabilize Prices
Apr
24, 2015
The government of South Korea is
planning to procure 77,000 tons of locally produced rice in May this year to
prevent prices from falling due to increasing supplies, Reuters quoted a ruling
party Committee as saying.A statement released today noted that supply of rice
has exceeded demand and has been impacting prices significantly. South Korea
produced around 4.24 million tons of rice in 2014 over and above the
government's projected 4.18 million tons as well as above the demand of around
4 million tons. The domestic price of rice declined to around 159,300 won per
80 kilograms (around $1,848 per ton) in April 2015, down about 6% from around
169,468 won per 80 kilograms (around $1,967 per ton) last year.
The government had opened the
rice import market from January this year and proposed to impose a tariff of
513% on imports over and above the mandatory rice imports of around 408,700
tons under WTO minimum market agreement (MMA) rules. The WTO is yet to approve
the government's proposal regarding the tariff. Declining
consumption of rice and the obligation to import 408,700 tons of rice under the
WTO rules have also been contributing to oversupplies in the market, according
to the Agriculture Ministry.USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice production
at around 4.24 million tons in MY 2014-15 (November - October), slightly up
from an estimated 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14.
It estimates South Korea to
import around 410,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15, up about 31% from 313,000
tons imported in MY 2013-14. USDA estimates South Korea’s 2014-15 domestic
consumption for rice to decline to around 4.45 million tons from around 4.46
million tons in 2013-14.
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