Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production at 12.399 Million
Tons, Up 2% from Last Year
May 14, 2015
Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted
the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.399 million tons
(around 8.43 million tons, basis milled), up about 2% from around 12.121
million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly
up from its March forecast of around 12.397 million tons.Conab has estimated
Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.331 million hectares, down
about 1.7% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14. Paddy rice acreage in
the key rice growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.553
million hectares in 2014-15, slightly down from around 1.565 million hectares
in 2013-14. Rice acreage in the North/Northeast regions is estimated at around
777,600 hectares, down 4% from around 808,400 hectares in 2013-14.Average rice
yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.320 tons per hectare, up
about 4% from around 5.108 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.
USDA estimates
Brazil MY 2014-15 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 12.206
million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY
2013-14. It estimates Brazil’s 2014-15 paddy rice acreage also to remain at
last year's level of around 2.4 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil
to export around one million tons of rice and import around 790,000 tons of
rice in 2015.
Global
Rice Quotes
May
14th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand
100% B grade 380-390 ↔
Vietnam
5% broken 350-360 ↔
India
5% broken 370-380 ↔
Pakistan
5% broken 390-400 ↔
Myanmar
5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia
5% broken 430-440 ↔
U.S. 4%
broken 470-480 ↓
Uruguay
5% broken 565-575 ↔
Argentina
5% broken 555-565 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand
25% broken 350-360 ↔
Vietnam
25% broken 330-340 ↔
Pakistan
25% broken 345-355 ↔
Cambodia
25% broken 410-420 ↔
India
25% broken 345-355 ↔
U.S.
15% broken 460-470 ↓
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370 ↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 875-885 ↔
Vietnam
Jasmine 490-500 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 815-825 ↔
Brokens
Thailand
A1 Super 315-325 ↔
Vietnam
100% broken 305-315 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔
Cambodia
A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India
100% broken stxd 270-280 ↔
Egypt
medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S.
pet food 365-375 ↓
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All
prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
China May Allow Market Access to Indian Non-Basmati Rice Soon, Say
Exporters
May 14, 2015
Indian
Rice Exporters have expressed confidence that China may grant market access to
Indian non-basmati rice shipments shortly during the Indian Prime Minister's
visit to Beijing this week, according to local sources.The Chinese authorities
have been blocking non-basmati shipments from India as adequate quality
protocols and phyto-sanitary norms have not be defined between the two
countries.
Indian
exporters say China currently imports rice from Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand.
They noted that India has a potential to export up to one million tons of
non-basmati rice to China. One of the top exporters added that India can in
fact offer better quality, price and a wider variety to the Chinese customers.A
Commerce Ministry official told local sources that the Ministry had suggested
to the Chinese authorities to adopt the same protocol that exists for basmati
rice shipments for the non-basmati shipments also. The Ministry officials have
reportedly sent the requisite documents for establishing the quality protocol to
China's General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and
Quarantine (AQSIQ). “The AQSIQ required certain documents to extend the
protocol existing for basmati rice to non-basmati, and we have already sent
them,” the official was quoted as saying.
According
to local sources, though China has agreed to import Indian basmati rice in
2012, so far not much progress is seen in the volume of direct shipments to
China due to lingering concerns about Indian basmati rice being infested with
'khapra beetle'. However, some basmati shipments are understood to be routed
through Hong Kong. The Chinese authorities are still in the process of
registering the Indian mills.Increasing rice exports to China has been on the
agenda of the government as part of efforts to contain increasing trade deficit
with the neighboring country. In January this year, an official from the
Commerce Ministry noted that India's trade deficit with China currently stands
at around $32 billion and is expected to cross $40 billion by the end of this
fiscal year.
USDA Post Estimates China Rice Imports to Remain Stable at 4.3 Million Tons
in MY 2015-16
May 14, 2015
USDA
Post has estimated MY 2015-16 (July - June) rice imports at around 4.3 million
tons, unchanged from MY 2013-14, due to a slight increase in production. The
Post reports that Chinese preference for imported rice is increasing due to
reports in response to reports of heavy metals and high pesticideresidues in
some locally produced rice. The government is understood to closely monitor and
regulate rice imports as part of its food security strategy.The Post estimates
China's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at around 146.3 million tons, up
about 1% from an estimated 144.5 million tons due to government's continued
support to the rice sector as part of its food security strategy. The Post
estimates China's MY 2015-16 paddy rice acreage to remain unchanged from last
year's 30.3 million hectares.
The
Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 rice exports to decline to around 350,000
tons, down about 12.5% from an estimated 400,000 tons in the previous year.USDA
Post estimates rice ending stocks to decline to around 46.35 million tons in MY
2015- 16 down about 1.6% from an estimated 47.1 million tons last year due to
an estimated increase in consumption by about 2% to around 151 million tons.The
Post reports that the government continued to purchase japonica and indica rice
at a specified floor price in major rice producing provinces in MY 2014-15 to
encourage production. The government will auction the rice thus purchased later
in the marketing year.
FAO Estimates Japan 2015-16 Rice Acreage to Decline Slightly Due to
Prevailing Low Prices
May 13, 2015
The UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates a slight decline in planting area due
to prevailing low prices in the market. Planting of the 2015 rice crop started
in April and will continue until the end of May. The FAO estimates Japan's 2015
aggregate paddy production at around 10.5 million tons (around 7.67 million
tons, basis milled), down about 1% from around 10.6 million tons (around 7.74
million tons, basis milled) in 2014 due to a slight decline in planting area.
The FAO estimates
Japan's 2015-16 (April-March) rice imports at around 700,000 tons. It estimates
total cereal imports during the year at around 25.4 million tons, slightly down
from around 25.52 million tons last year.USDA estimates Japan to produce about
10.772 million tons of paddy (around 7.84 million tons, basis milled) in MY
2014-15 (November - October) and import around 700,000 tons of rice in 2015.
U.S. 2015-16 All Rice Supplies and Ending Stocks Expected to Increase, Says
USDA Report
In its latest World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA has forecasts
U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies to increase 3% y/y to around 12.99 million tons
and accordingly forecasts U.S. 2015-16 all rice ending stocks to increase about
11% y/y to around 2.15 million tons.USDA estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice
planted area and harvested area to decline slightly to around 1.17 million
hectares and 1.16 million hectares respectively. It estimates U.S. 2015-16 all
rice production to decline slightly to around 9.93 million tons. While the
long-grain production is estimated to decline slightly to around 7.35 million
tons, combined medium and short-grain production is estimated to decline about
2.6% to around 2.59 million tons.
U.S. 2015-16 all
rice exports are expected to increase about 3% y/y to around 4.9 million tons.
While long-grain rice exports are estimated to increase about 4% y/y to around
3.45 million tons, combined medium and short-grain rice exports are expected to
remain at last year's level of 1.45 million tons. USDA estimates U.S.
2015-16 all rice imports to increase about 2% y/y to around 1.11 million tons.
U.S. 2015-16 all
rice farm prices are expected to decline slightly to around 271.17 - 293.21 per
ton from around $291.00 - $299.83 per ton. USDA estimates long-grain rice farm
prices to decline to around $220.46 - $242.51 per ton and estimates
combined medium and short-grain farm prices to increase to around $392.42 -
$414.46 per ton.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Muted Market as Sellers Stay on Sidelines
May 13, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was unchanged today and very quiet as sellers remain on the sidelines,
anticipating a price rebound despite burdensome stocks and limited
demand.Analysts contend that the current price level is below the cost
production and that most would rather hold on to their crop as long as they can
before selling for a loss; however, other analysts believe that it may be wise
to cut your losses now as farmers plant a crop just shy of the size of last
year's.
Thailand Rice Exports Increase for Second Consecutive Month in March 2015
May 14, 2015
Thai
rice exports have increased for the second consecutive month in March 2015
after declining by more than half in January 2015, according to data from Thai
Rice Exporters Association (TREA). Thailand has exported around 785,891 tons of
rice in March 2015, up about 7% from around 732,151 tons exported in February
2015, and down about 2% from around 799,534 tons exported in March 2014, according
to TREA. In value terms, Thailand’s rice exports earned about $384.9
million from total rice exports in March 2015, up about 4% from around $369.58
million earned in February 2015, and down about 4% from around $402.54 million
earned in March 2014.
In
March 2015, white rice exports accounted for around 392,760 tons (about 50% of
total March 2015 exports), Hom Mali rice exports accounted for about 120,211
tons (about 15% of total March exports), brokens accounted for 98,754 tons
(about 12.5% of total March 2015 exports), glutinous variety accounted for
12,659 tons (about 1.6% of total March 2015 exports), parboiled rice accounted
for about 157,057 tons (about 20% of total March 2015 exports) and husked/brown
rice accounted for about 4,450 tons (about 0.5% of total March 2015 exports).
Average export prices of all varieties of rice except glutinous rice have
declined during the month. Average export prices of white rice witnessed the
highest decline of about 7% month-on-month in March 2015, while average export
prices of glutinous rice increased by about 1% month-on-month during the
month.Thailand exported around 2.128 million tons of rice in the first three
months of 2015, slightly down from around 2.205 million tons exported during
the same period last year. Thai government is keen on exporting over 10 million
tons of rice this year.
Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
May 14, 2015
Asia rice sellers
kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at
around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice
shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 25%
rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$345 - $355, on par with Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to
Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken
rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $10 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about a
$20 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around
$290 - $300 per ton.
Government of India Forecasts 2014-15 Rice Production at 102.54 Million
Tons, Down 4% from Last Year
May 13, 2015
In
its first advanced estimates, the Indian government has estimated 2014-15
(October 2014 - September 2015) kharif rice production at around 88.02 million
tons, down about 4% from around 91.69 million tons produced during the same
time in 2013-14.USDA estimates India's milled rice production at 102.5 million
tons in MY 2014-15 (October - September), down about 4% from an estimated
106.54 million tons produced in MY 2013-14. It expects India to export around
10.2 million tons of rice during 2015, slightly up from an estimated 10.15
million tons in 2014.
High Production Costs and Government's Lacklustre Measures Hampering
Pakistan Rice Exports, Say Exporters
May 13, 2015
FAO Estimates Cambodia Rice Exports to Increase in 2015
May 13, 2015
The
UN agency estimates Cambodia's total paddy rice production in 2015 at around
9.3 million tons (around 5.76 million tons, basis milled). Planting of the 2015
main (wet) season paddy crop (June - February), which accounts for 80% of
Cambodia's total paddy rice production, is expected to start in June and
continue till October. The FAO estimates output from the 2015 main season rice
crop at around 7.2 million tons, up about 1% from last year.Average wholesale
prices remained stable or declined in April 2015 in major cities due to
increasing supplies from the 2014-15 good harvests.
USDA estimates Cambodia MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December
2015) paddy rice production at around 7.344 million tons (around 4.7 million
tons, milled basis), slightly down from around 7.383 million tons (around 4.725
million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Cambodia to export
around 1.1 million tons of rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1
million tons in 2014.
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