Thursday, May 21, 2015

21st May(Thursday),2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E_Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

May 20, 2015
Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice  shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $25 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $395 - $405 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355, about a $10 per ton discount to Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to  Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.
Global Rice Quotes
May 21st, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade          380-390           ↔
Vietnam 5% broken    350-360           ↔
India 5% broken         370-380           ↔
Pakistan 5% broken    405-415           ↑
Myanmar 5% broken   415-425           ↔
Cambodia 5% broken             430-440           ↔
U.S. 4% broken           465-475           ↓
Uruguay 5% broken    565-575           ↔
Argentina 5% broken 555-565           ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 350-360           ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 330-340           ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 360-370           ↑
Cambodia 25% broken           410-420           ↔
India 25% broken       345-355           ↔
U.S. 15% broken         455-465           ↓
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd            370-380           ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd    405-415           ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd         360-370           ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken       555-565           ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken    570-580           ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken            NQ      ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92%          865-875           ↔
Vietnam Jasmine         480-490           ↔
India basmati 2% broken        NQ      ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken   NQ      ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails             815-825           ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super      315-325           ↔
Vietnam 100% broken            305-315           ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd    305-315           ↑
Cambodia A1 Super   350-360           ↔
India 100% broken stxd         270-280           ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ      ↔
U.S. pet food 365-375           ↔
Brazil half grain          NQ      ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

FAO Estimates Indonesia Rice Imports to Decline Sharply in 2015-16

May 20, 2015
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Indonesia to import around 900,000 tons of rice in 2015-16 (April - March), down about 25% from around 1.2 million tons last year due to a favorable outlook for 2015 aggregate rice production. It estimates Indonesia's total cereal imports in 2015-16 at around 11.5 million tons, down about 3% from around 11.15 million tons last year.
The FAO estimates Indonesia's 2015 aggregate paddy rice production at around 73 million tons (around 46.72 million tons of rice, basis milled), up about 3% from an estimated 70.61 million tons (around 45.2 million tons of rice, basis milled) in 2014.Harvesting of the 2015 main season paddy crop (mid-October to mid-May) is ongoing and will continue till mid-July. Favourable weather conditions, coupled with diverse initiatives launched by the government to support production, including the rehabilitation of irrigation channels, distribution of subsidized seeds and fertilizers, are expected to increase the yields of the main season, says the FAO. It also expects a slight expansion in area planted for the 2015 secondary season rice crop (June to mid-December).The government has been aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production this year and accordingly has been providing  support to the sector.
Average rice prices have been increasing since September 2014 and have reached record levels in March 2015. However, since April, prices reversed direction due to the government intervention as well as increased supplies from the 2015 main season rice crop. Currently, prices stand at around 9.875 million Rupiah (around $751) per ton, down about 1.25% from around 10 million Rupiah (around $770) per ton in April 2015.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October - September).

MRF Expects Myanmar to Export 2 Million Tons of Rice in FY 2015-16; Up 18% from Last Year

May 20, 2015

The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) has expressed confidence that the country would export about 2 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2015-16 (April - March) due to increasing demand from China, Africa and Europe, according to local sources.Cross border rice exports to China, which slowed down between August 2014 to February 2015 due to lack of a proper trade agreement between the two countries have reportedly resumed again following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the MRF and China's COFCO to export 100,000 tons this year. Traders told local sources that around 4,000 tons of rice is being exported to China currently through borders every day.Myanmar's rice exports have been increasing consistently for the last three years, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Myanmar exported about 1.7 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15, about 1.2 million tons of rice in FY 2013-14 and about 1.4 million tons of rice in FY 2012-13. The government is keen on increasing rice exports to around 3 million tons over the next few years and has prioritized rice in its National Export Strategy (NES).
The NES will focus on seven main sectors - rice, peas and pulses, fisheries productions, textiles, timber and forest products, rubber, and tourism - over the next five years to enhance the country's export reach as well as to the trade deficit, which is stood at around $5 billion in 2014-15, according to the Commerce Ministry. Sources at the Ministry noted that the NES implementation would cost the government about $900 million over the next five years.USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 19.688 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.6 million tons, milled basis) and export around 1.85 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015).

Limited Financing Options Hamper Export Opportunities for Cambodian Rice Millers, Say Experts

May 20, 2015
Limited access to finance, warehousing and logistical support are hampering export potential of Cambodian rice millers, local sources quoted some experts as saying.A recent report by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) noted that Cambodian rice millers need to invest hugely in increasing their milling capacity and irrigation facilities to scale up exports. However, an official from the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) told local sources that Cambodian rice millers are facing acute financing problem and the government has not taken enough measures to address this issue. Due to this they are not in a position to scale up their milling and warehousing capacities.
He noted that Cambodian rice millers most of the time end up selling their stocks to Vietnam and Thai traders. They get attracted to huge amounts paid by them he says. Vietnam and Thai governments provide subsidies and warehouse facilities during the harvest season Cambodia lags behind such facilities.The official also noted that while the country currently has the potential to export around 1.5 million tons of rice, mills are currently working at only 30-40% of their capacities due to low stocks available. Millers need a huge working capital to buy paddy, stock and mill it and export it. However lack of access to working capital has been forcing millers to keep their mills idle most of the time. Though some private banks have been providing loans to millers, their conditions for collateral are tough to meet, he says. Moreover, private banks always retain the authority whether or not to sanction the loan, he adds.
The government has targeted to export around 1 million tons of rice in 2015, but it is far away from the target due to these inherent problems, he says.Cambodia exported around 201,183 tons of rice in the first four months of 2015, up about 67% from around 120,291 tons exported during the same period in 2014. Cambodia exported around 387,061 tons of rice in 2014.USDA estimates Cambodia to produce around 4.7 million tons of milled rice and export around 1.1 million tons (including official exports and unofficial exports to Vietnam and Thailand) in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015).

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Close Lower as Sellers Face Lack of Demand

May 20, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery settled 8 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $9.570 per cwt (about $211 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly lower; Soybeans closed about 0.5% lower at $9.4125 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% higher at $5.1300 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.6% lower at $3.6000 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded sideways on Wednesday following a record close on the Dow as investors awaited the afternoon release of the Fed meeting minutes.
The major averages attempted to hold slight gains after fluctuating around the flatline. The Dow transports fell more than 1.5% as airline stocks declined. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its April meeting at 2 p.m. The statement from that month removed all calendar references to the timing of a short-term interest rate hike. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in Munich on Wednesday that a rate hike is not likely to be appropriate until early 2016, Reuters reported. Investors are also looking ahead to a Friday speech from Fed chief Janet Yellen for possible new clues on when the central bank may start raising interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 16 points, or 0.09%, at 18,296. The S&P 500 traded down 3 points, or 0.13%, at 2,125, with telecommunications leading four sectors higher and industrials the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded down 6 points, or 0.13%, at 5,063. Gold is trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% higher at about  1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 266 contracts traded, down from 398 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 13 contracts to 11,169.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Sideways Market as Buyers and Sellers Wait for Better Prices

May 20, 2015
The U.S. cash market was sideways today with little to no trading to report as most sellers remain on the sidelines hoping for prices to improve while buyers do the same.Analysts continue to note that without an increase in export demand prices will likely trend lower however some are hopeful that demand from either the Venezuela or Iraq will show up and support the market.   

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Seen Continued to be Dragged Lower by Bearish Grains and Lack of Fundamental Support

May 20, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen paused 3 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $9.620 per cwt (about $212 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading lower; soybeans are currently seen about 0.7% lower, wheat is listed about 0.7% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.3% lower.U.S. stock index futures indicated a flat to higher open for Wall Street shares Wednesday ahead of the release of the minutes of April's Federal Reserve meeting, following another record close for the Dow Jones the previous session.
 On an otherwise quiet day for U.S. economic data, attention is expected to turn to the Fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET. The Fed's last meeting was a relatively uneventful one and preceded the release of several softer-than-expected economic figures. Markets are also already looking ahead to a speech Fridayfrom Fed chief Janet Yellen for possible new clues on when the central bank may start raising interest rates. Yellen is scheduled to speak Friday at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon at 1 p.m. She is not expected to take questions.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a record for the second day in a row on Tuesday, ending below and intraday high of 18,351.36 set earlier that session. Gold is currently trading about 0.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.2% higher,  and the U.S. dollar is currently trading slightly higher at 8:15am Chicago time.

U.S. Southern States Look to Compensate for Tighter Rice Supplies from California

May 20, 2015
The U.S. southern states such as Arkansas and Louisiana, which typically grow long-grain rice, are looking to increase medium-grain production, in which California tops, in order to compensate for tighter supplies from the western state, according to AgAlert.While California rice growers are forced to reduce their acreage this year due to water restrictions and drought, the two states have reportedly increased the medium-grain acreage in expectation of higher returns. While the U.S. long-grain rice prices declined about 8% to around $475 per ton from around $515 per ton in the beginning of this year, the U.S. medium grain rice prices declined about 7% to around $850 per ton from around $915 in the beginning of this year.According to USDA, while California's total rice acreage (mostly of medium grain) had declined about 30% to around 434,000 acres (around 175,634 ha) in 2014 from around 567,000 acres (around 229,457 ha) in 2013, medium grain acreage in southern states more than doubled in 2014 to around 301,000 acres (around 121,810 ha). Surprisingly, the U.S. medium grain acreage increased 6% y/y in 2014.
USDA reports that this year, southern states are planning to plant medium grain rice in about 311,000 acres (around 125,857 ha) while California total rice acreage is expected to further decline to around 408,000 acres (around 165,112 ha), including 375,000 acres (around 151,757 ha) of medium grain.Keeping aside the acreage issue, most of the traditional customers of California medium-grain rice such as Turkey, Taiwan, Turkey, Jordan, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been buying medium-grain rice from the southern states. Normally, California rice is known to be highly priced but the southern states have been offering medium grain rice at competitive prices.

Due to this, California rice growers are left with huge quantities of last year's stocks. Some rice growers told reporters that California medium-grain rice is also facing a stiff competition from Australia as well, especially in the Middle East markets. The recent port closures have also disrupted rice exports from California, they said. However, they are convinced that if the drought continues this year also, prices may impacted significantly.

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