El Nino Fears May Force
Philippines and Indonesia to Import More Rice This Year, Say Analysts
May
21, 2015
Global rice market analysts are
predicting Indonesia and the Philippines to import more rice this year to
maintain adequate stocks and curb rice price increases amid fears of an
impending El Nino, according to Reuters.Reuters quotes government sources as
saying that the Philippine president has approved a proposal to import more
rice this year to avert a potential spike in food inflation. But the quantity
and type of imports are yet to be approved by the National Food Authority (NFA)
Council.Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has estimated the
country's paddy production in the first half of this year to decline by about
1.32% to around 8.27 million tons from around 8.38 million tons last year as
dry weather has reportedly affected more than half of the country's 81
provinces.The Philippines already imported 500,000 tons of rice from Vietnam
and Thailand this year.
On the other hand Indonesia's new
President had been advocating the self-sufficiency principle for certain food
items, including rice, and has ruled out any rice imports this year. However,
analysts, say the government of Indonesia may have to import rice in order to
curtail surging prices amid fears of El Nino affecting the country's rice
production.Increased imports by the two South-East Asian nations are likely to
help support Asian rice export prices, which have been falling in recent months
due to weak demand.Export prices of Thai 5% broken rice, Vietnam 5% broken rice
and India 5% broken rice currently stand at around $370 per ton, $355 per ton
and $375 per ton respectively compared to $410 per ton, $380 per ton and $390
per ton respectively at the beginning of the year.
European Paddy, Rice Quotes Show
Slight Movements in First Week of May 2015
May
21, 2015
Oryza.com
-
European paddy quotes in the weeks
between May 05-12 showed some slight movements. However, both Indica and for
Japonica varieties received no quotations according to the European quotations
supplied by the European Union (EU) on May 12, 2015.Spain - Japonica paddy
quotes were unchanged at 292 euros (about $ 323) per ton on May 12. Indica
paddy remained unchanged at 285 euros (about $ 316) per ton on May 12. Milled
Japonica rice quoted 586 euros (about $ 650) per ton in both weeks.
Indica paddy in Badajoz grain exchange remained unchanged at 280 euros
(about $ 353) per ton, and in Sevilla grain exchange at 291 euros (about $ 322)
per ton. In this period paddy Japonica rice in Badajoz grain exchange was shown
at 290 euros (about $ 321) per ton, and in Sevilla grain exchange at 295 euros
(about $ 327) per ton. Milled rice in Tarragona was unchanged at 580 euros
(about $ 643) per ton, and in Valencia at 597 euros (about $ 662) per ton.Portugal: Portuguese
rice received no quotations.
Greece – On May 12, medium paddy
variety received no quotations, while Long paddy was quoted 500 euros (about $
554) per ton on May 12, up from 490 euros (about $ 543) per ton of May 5.
Indica paddy received no quotations.Romania - On May 12, Japonica paddy prices
were slightly down at 338 euros (about $ 374) per ton, from 346 euros (about $
383) per ton on May 5. Indica paddy quotes were quoted only on May 12 at 340
euros (about $ 377) per ton. As for milled rice, Japonica quotes declined to 717
euros (about $ 795) per ton from 763 euros (about $ 846) per ton on May 5.
Indica milled rice was quoted only on May 5 at 635 euros (about $ 704) per ton.
Bulgaria - Japonica paddy quotations remained unchanged at 276
euros (about $ 306) per ton. Japonica milled rice prices also remained
unchanged at 814 euros (about $ 903) per ton.France - No variety of milled
rice was quoted on May 12; on May 5 round milled rice was quoted at 680 euros
(about $ 750) per ton, Long A was quoted at 690 euros (about $ 765) per ton,
and Long B was quoted at 610 euros (about $ 676) per ton.
FAO Estimates South Korea
2014-15 Rice Imports at 460,000 Tons
May
21, 2015
The UN's Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO) estimates South Korea to import 460,000 tons in the
marketing year 2014-15 (October - September). It estimates South Korea's total
cereal rice imports in 2014-15 at around 14.1 million tons, down about 5% from
around 14.84 million tons last year.The FAO forecasts 2015 paddy rice (April -
October) production at around 5.5 million tons (around 4.125 million tons,
basis milled), down about 3% from last year. Planting of the 2015 rice crop has
begun and will continue till the end of June.
Rains have been below-average over
most of the country since May and therefore the FAO estimates the planting
operations to be delayed. The government's conversion of agricultural lands for
infrastructure purposes has also been reducing the rice acreage for the last
few years.
The government of South Korea has
opened its rice market in January this year ending its 20-year import quota
system. It decided to impose a 513% tariff on rice imports over and above its
mandatory rice imports of 408,700 tons under the World Trade Organization (WTO)
minimum market access (MMA) quota. The government is keen on protecting the
local rice market from cheap imports.USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice
production at around 4.24 million tons in MY 2014-15 (November - October),
slightly up from an estimated 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates
South Korea to import around 470,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15, up about 50%
from 313,000 tons imported in MY 2013-14.
Global Rice Quotes
May 22nd, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 380-390
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 350-360
↔
India 5% broken 370-380
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 405-415
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 420-430
↑
Cambodia 5% broken 430-440
↔
U.S. 4% broken 465-475
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 565-575
↔
Argentina 5% broken 555-565
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 350-360
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 330-340
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 360-370
↔
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420
↔
India 25% broken 345-355
↔
U.S. 15% broken 455-465
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 480-490
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 815-825
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 315-325
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 310-320
↑
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 305-315
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360
↔
India 100% broken stxd 270-280
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 365-375 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Italian Paddy Quotes Show
Diverse Trends as on May 19, 2015
May
21, 2015
Italian paddy quotes showed diverse
trends as on May 19, 2015, with prices of Long A varieties increasing and
Indica prices declining.Below are the farm gate paddy quotations supplied by
Milan Grain Exchange, as of May 19:
Arborio-Volano rice was shown at
740-770 euros (about $ 820-854) per ton, increasing from 720-750 euros (about $
798-832) per ton as of May 12. Balilla, Centauro and similar varieties paddy
prices are slightly lowered at 405-430 euros (about $ 449-477) per ton, from
415-430 euros (about $460-477) per ton of one week prior.Lido, Crono, Flipper
and similar paddy varieties are down at 335-350 euros (about $ 387-404) per
ton, from 352-367 euros (about $ 390-407) on May 12.
Padano-Argo was shown at 550-650
euros (about $ 610-721) per ton, unchanged from the prior week.
Vialone Nano slightly increased at 743-793 euros (about $ 824-879) per ton from
730-780 euros (about $ 809-865) per ton of May 12.Thaibonnet and similar Indica
varieties are firm at 330-340 euros (about $366-370) per ton; Sant'Andrea
quoted 535-585 euros (about $ 593-649) per ton on May 19, down from 545-595
euros (about $ 604-660) per ton of a week prior; Carnaroli and similar
varieties were fixed at 740-770 euros (about $820-854) per ton, increasing from
720-750 euros (about $ 798-832) per ton of a week prior. Baldo paddy prices
went down to 520-570 euros (about $ 603-657) per ton on April 14, starting from
535-585 euros (about $ 593-649) per ton on May 12.
Roma was firm at 575-605 euros
(about $ 637-671) per ton, unchanged from a week prior.Selenio was shown at
405-430 euros (about $ 449-477) per ton, unchanged from a week prior.Augusto
was out at 370-385 euros (about $ 410-427) per ton, down from 383-398 euros
(about $ 424-441) per ton of one week prior; Loto and Nembo quoted 370-385
euros (about $ 410-427) per ton, down from 383-398 euros (about $ 424-441) per
ton of one week prior; Luna Cl, Dardo and similar varieties were quoted at
337-347 euros (about $ 373-384) per ton, down from 347-367 euros (about $
384-407) per ton on May 12.
Duty on Rice Imports Fails to
Cheer Farmers Despite Increase in Boro Paddy Prices, Say Experts
May
21, 2015
Bangladesh rice farmers are
expressing concern that the imposition of import duty of 10% on rice imports
has increased Boro (January - May) paddy prices by about 20% since its
imposition last week but the increase has not benefited them apparently,
according to local sources. Paddy prices are said to have increased to around
Tk 600 - Tk 650 per 40 kilograms (around $193 - $209 per ton) from last week's
Tk 500 - Tk 550 per 40 kilograms (around $161 - $177 per ton)
Local sources say most of the
farmers had sold their output from the ongoing Boro harvest season even before
the duty imposition and are now not left with any stocks to take advantage of
the increased prices. Moreover, the prices are below the average production
costs of around Tk 800 per 40 kilograms (around $260 per ton), say farmers.They
say the government's decision will only benefit big millers who have stocked
enough paddy from the ongoing Boro harvest.
Some rice experts in the country
told local sources that domestic paddy and rice prices had declined sharply
before the Boro harvest due to higher imports, especially from India, despite
sufficient production in the country. According to Food Ministry data,
Bangladesh's private rice traders have imported around 1.36 million tons of
rice from July 1, 2014 - May 7, 2015, compared to only 374,560 tons imported in
the whole of 2013-14.Absence of import duty on rice was said to be the main
reason for a surge in imports. Therefore the government had imposed a duty of
10% on rice imports, with effect from May 10, 2015.
Millers and traders also expressed
concern that the government's imposition of duty had led to a sharp decline in
rice prices in India, especially in the eastern states and Andhra Pradesh,
which usually export non-aromatic parboiled rice to Bangladesh. The duty hike
may not protect the interests of farmers in this situation, they said. Some
experts suggested that the government could either ban imports from India or
increase the procurement price.
The government will reportedly procure one million tons of 2015 Boro paddy
and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. It has
fixed the procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram (around $283 per
ton) and that for rice at Tk 32 per kilogram (around $412 per ton).
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Trade Higher, Supported by Rally in Wheat and Corn
May
21, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul
delivery settled 4.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $9.615 per cwt
(about $212 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results as
corn and wheat had a strong showing; Soybeans closed about 0.3% lower at
$9.3850 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.8% higher at $5.2200 per bushel, and
corn finished the day about 1.4% higher at $3.6500 per bushel.U.S. stocks
traded in a narrow range on Thursday as investors kept an eye on the bond
market and digested mixed economic reports. The major averages traded mostly
higher, recovering mild losses after the 10 a.m. data.
The Nasdaq outperformed, up
0.35%.Existing home sales for April fell 3.3%, missing an expected 1% gain to
5.24 million units. Earlier in the week, reports showed home builder sentiment
fell in May, but housing starts for April came in much better than expected.
Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8 for May, below expectations of 54.5. The
initial read showed slowing growth for the second straight month, with new
orders increasing at their slowest pace since January last year, financial
research firm Markit said. Weekly jobless claims came in at 274,000, above
expectations of an increase to 271,000 from the prior week's 264,000.
The 4-week moving average remains
the lowest since April 2000. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high on
Wednesday and the Nasdaq briefly traded above its closing high before both
indices pared gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 11 points, or
0.06%, at 18,296. The S&P 500 traded up 6 points, or 0.28%, at 2,131 with
energy leading seven sectors higher and financials the greatest decliner. The
Nasdaq traded up 17 points, or 0.33%, at 5,088. Gold is trading about 0.4%
lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.4% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen
trading about 0.2% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there
were 355 contracts traded, up from 266 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 103
contracts to 11,272.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Higher Overnight, Supported by Gains in US Grain Prices
May
21, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul
delivery are currently seen paused 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher
at $9.625 per cwt (about $212 per ton) ahead of floor trading in
Chicago. The other grains are seen trading higher; soybeans are currently
seen about 0.1% higher, wheat is listed about 0.6% higher and corn is currently
noted about 0.5% higher.U.S. stock index futures indicated a softer open on Thursday, ahead of existing
home sales and following a muted response toWednesday's Fed minutes release, which confirmed market
expectations on rate hike timing.
Following mixed housing data
released earlier this week, existing home sales data is due 10 a.m. ET and is expected to show a 1% gain, to 5.24
million units. Weekly jobless claims came in at 274,000, above expectations of
an increase to 271,000 from the prior week's 264,000. The 4-week moving average
remains the lowest since April 2000. Manufacturing PMI is expected at 9:45 a.m. Finally, the
Conference Board's leading indicator index, which forecasts future economic
activity, for April at 10 a.m.,
is expected to register the 15th consecutive increase, given a decline in
initial unemployment claims.
The Fed minutes showed policymakers
mostly brushed aside the wobbly start the U.S. economy has had in 2015,
attributing the lack of growth to "transitory" factors that will
abate soon. However, only a few policymakers supported a June rate hike. European
equities were mostly lower on
Thursday as investors digested fresh data from the euro zone. Flash
manufacturing and services PMI data for the 19-currency single currency zone
showed the region's economy continued to lose momentum in May. Gold is currently
trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% higher,
and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% lower at 8:30am Chicago time.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap -
Prices Hold Steady despite Dismal Export Sales
May
21, 2015
The U.S. cash market was unchanged
today despite dismal export sales numbers as most farmers are reluctant sellers
at the current price levels being bid.In the meantime, the USDA reported that
cumulative net export sales for the week ending on May 14th, totaled
10,900 tons, which was 47% lower than last week and 83% lower than the prior
4-week average.Increases were reported for the following destinations
including: 7,400 tons to Honduras, 2,600 tons to Canada, 1,300 tons to Jordan,
600 tons to unknown destinations, and 200 tons to Lebanon, while decreases of
1,200 tons, 900 tons, and 200 tons were reported for Ghana, Mexico, and
Colombia, respectively.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 86,400
tons, which was 50% higher than last week and 27% higher than the prior 4-week
average. The primary destinations included: 22,100 tons to Mexico, 22,000 tons
to South Korea, 20,600 tons to Haiti, 13,100 tons to Japan, and 3,000 tons to
Canada.
Thailand Seeks to Increase
Competitiveness of Thai Rice Globally
May
21, 2015
The Thailand Prime Minister (PM) has
spelt out strategies to increase competitiveness of Thai rice globally and
within the ASEAN during the opening ceremony of the Thailand Rice Convention
2015 on May 20, 2015.The PM told the Convention that the government was taking
measures to accelerate the restructuring of rice production management. He
noted that the government is planning to focus on farmland consolidation in
order to cut production costs. He also called for designated rice-farming are
as suited to grow specific rice varieties to plan production schedules to meet
market demand appropriately.
He also stated that the government
would focus on production of higher quality rice varieties while promoting the
use of organic fertilizers an bio-fertilizers to maintain quality standards. He
also called on millers to make improvements to meet good manufacturing
standards.The PM noted that the government is planning to set up a one-stop
standardized inspection and quality assurance operations center to ensure
enhanced supervision of the rice trading system.Speakers at the Convention
called for a joint cooperation between countries to balance rice supply and
demand in order to avert fluctuations in prices.
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