Thursday, May 07, 2015

7th May (May),2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA RICE E-Newsletter

Global Rice Quotes
May 6th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade          385-395           ↔
Vietnam 5% broken    355-365           ↔
India 5% broken         370-380           ↔
Pakistan 5% broken    375-385           ↔
Myanmar 5% broken   415-425           ↔
Cambodia 5% broken             430-440           ↔
U.S. 4% broken           480-490           ↔
Uruguay 5% broken    565-575           ↔
Argentina 5% broken 555-565           ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 350-360           ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 335-345           ↑
Pakistan 25% broken 330-340           ↔
Cambodia 25% broken           410-420           ↔
India 25% broken       345-355           ↔
U.S. 15% broken         470-480           ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd            375-385           ↓
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd    390-400           ↑
India parboiled 5% broken stxd         360-370           ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken       555-565           ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken    570-580           ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken            NQ      ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92%          885-895           ↔
Vietnam Jasmine         480-490           ↓
India basmati 2% broken        NQ      ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken   NQ      ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails             815-825           ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super      315-325           ↔
Vietnam 100% broken            310-320           ↑
Pakistan 100% broken stxd    285-295           ↔
Cambodia A1 Super   350-360           ↔
India 100% broken stxd         270-280           ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ      ↔
U.S. pet food 370-380           ↔
Brazil half grain          NQ      ↔
Medium grain milled
U.S. Calrose 4% broken          845-855           ↔
Egypt medium grain 6%         NQ      ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Thailand Continues to Enjoy Government Rice Subsidies but Faces Uphill Battle on Export Price Competition, Suggests USDA Post


May 06, 2015
The USDA post forecasts that Thailand will export about 11 million tons rice in 2015 and expects that Thailand rice export will accelerate in the second half of the year due to the sales of the government stocks, according to a recent report. The report projects parboiled rice exports, which account for around 30% of total rice exports, will increase in coming the months due to higher demand from Nigeria.

However, the Post projects that, "Price competition between Thai and Vietnamese rice will continue to put downward pressure on world rice prices.” In first quarter of 2015, Thailand has exported about 2.1 million tons rice, according to the USDA Post, down about 4% from the same period last year due to price competition from Vietnam rice.Thailand government has sold about 1.3 million metric tons of rice stocks, valued at 16 billion baht (about $499 million) in first quarter of 2015. However total quantity was well below from planned about 3 million metric tons.
The government has used a variety of measures to support rice farmers, including: an On-Farm Pledging Scheme (albeit at lower prices than the previous rice schemes under Yingluck which accumulated huge tonnage), the Income Support Measure (distributed $192 per hectare to 3.6 million farmers, totaling $1.2 billion), the Off-farm Employment Assistant Program (designed to help farmers affected by government imposed water restrictions, a Rice Insurance Program (subsidizing insurance rates, protecting farmers from natural disasters), and the Interest Subsidy Program (subsidizing borrowing rates for traders to hold stocks).

Asia Rice Quotes Mixed Today

May 06, 2015
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about a $5 per ton to about $375 - $385 per ton. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about a $5 per ton and $10 per ton to about $335 - $345 per ton and $310 - $320 per ton, respectively, and lowered their quotes for Jasmine rice by about a $10 per ton to about $480 - $490 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for Parboiled rice by about a $5 per ton to about $390 - $400 per ton. India rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice  shown at around $355 - $365 per ton.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $335- $345 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355, about a $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday.
India parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $5 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, up about a $10 per ton from yesterday.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton,  about a $15 per ton discount to  Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

 

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Slightly Lower Overnight as Technical Bearishness Continues to Mount


May 06, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen paused 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $9.950 per cwt (about $219 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed: soybeans are currently seen about 0.1% lower, wheat is listed about 0.6% higher and corn is currently noted 0.8% higher.U.S. stock index futures pointed to a firm open for Wall Street shares Wednesday, following the previous day's sharp falls and ahead of some key data releases as Treasury yields rose. The ADP Employment Report showed 169,000 jobs were created in April, below expectations. The report, which could foreshadow Friday's employment report, was expected to record a modest rise in the rate of job creation to around 200,000 in April, according to analysts.
Unit labor costs for the first quarter rose 5% but productivity fell 1.9%, a touch more than the expected 1.8% decline. The report is central to the Federal Reserve's assessment of underlying price pressures. Other key events include a panel discussion between Fed chief Janet Yellen and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on monetary policy at 9:15 a.m. ET in Washington. European equities were higher in morning trade on Wednesday as investors reacted to a slew of earnings reports and new economic data.
U.S. stocks closed about 1% lower on Tuesday as investors eyed higher bond yields, mixed domestic data and renewed concerns over Greece. The tech-heavy Nasdaq under-performed, falling about 1.5% to close below 5,000. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.2% higher,  and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.6% lower at 7:30am Chicago time.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Continue to Tumble as Market Lacks Buying Interest and Charts Remain Bearish; Wheat Reverses Yesterday's Losses

May 06, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery settled 18 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) lower at $9.795 per cwt (about $216 per ton). Rough rice futures continued lower as the market searches for levels that attract demand. Technically the market remains bearish and there is little sign that the current downtrend is nearing an end. The other grains finished the day with mixed results as soy products slipped, while corn continued higher and wheat looked to erase losses sustained yesterday; Soybeans closed about 0.2% lower at $9.8250 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.7% higher at $4.7925 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.5% higher at $3.6650 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded lower after a positive open on Wednesday as investors weighed comments from the Fed Chair on valuation amid higher yields and energy prices.

 In the afternoon, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Dennis Lockhart said he is hopeful growth will pick up but needs more evidence, particularly from consumer spending. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday morning in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde that equity valuations are generally quite high. U.S. equities followed European stocks lower on currency and bond market moves. The U.S. dollar traded more than 1 percent lower against major world currencies, with the euro topping $1.13 for the first time since the end of February.

Stocks sold off on her remarks before briefly recovering to trade mildly lower. In other economic news, the ADP Employment Report showed 169,000 jobs were created in April, below expectations. The report, which could foreshadow Friday's employment report, was expected to record a modest rise in the rate of job creation to around 200,000 in April, according to analysts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 115 points, or 0.64%, at 17,813. The S&P 500 traded down 11 points, or 0.51%, at 2,078, with utilities leading eight sectors lower and materials and energy the only advancers.

The Nasdaq traded down 28 points, or 0.56%, at 4,911. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 1% lower at about  1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 853 contracts traded, up from 714 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday increased by 118 contracts to 10,827.

Thailand Rice Farmers to Receive Discount Coupons to Buy Seed and Fertilizer

May 06, 2015
Thailand economic minister has agreed today to distribute coupons or cards to rice farmers allowing them to claim a discount on the purchase of cultivation materials, including seed and fertilizer, according to the local media. He told to local media that the discount method will be more effective than handing out cash subsidies to the farmers. Meanwhile, Thailand's Prime Minister has ordered to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives to implement this program.Thailand government is also planning to convince some rice farmers to switch sugarcane crop in upcoming crop season to ensure good prices for rice. The government is also offering 1 million baht (about $29,933) in aid to each of about 3,000 sub-districts where rice growers have suffered from water shortages.

Indian Monsoon May Disappoint, Reducing Rice Production and Future Exports, Says USDA Post

May 06, 2015
Cuba’s main rice crop, which accounts for about 60-70% of the nation’s rice production, is typically planted between March and July and this year there are concerns that water supplies are insufficient.  In a GIEWS Country Brief, FAO reports that “Sowing operations are already reported to have been hindered by limited supplies of water in major reservoirs, particularly over the eastern-most provinces of the country.”

FAO estimates 2015 paddy production at 632,000 tons (about 425,000 tons basis milled), nearly unchanged from 2014.  This is below the USDA’s paddy production estimate of about 700,000 tons (about 455,000 tons basis milled). 
Download/View On-Line the above News in pdf format,just click the following link
7th May (May),2015  Daily Exclusive ORYZA RICE  E-Newsletter          


India’s upcoming monsoon season may suffer from insufficient rains, potentially reducing crop production including rice, the USDA Post reports in its May 2015 India Grain and Feed Update. Last month the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) predicted the 2015 monsoon will be 93% of normal, with a margin of error of 5%.  The next forecast will be in June, the start of the June-September monsoon season, which provides about 70% of the nation’s annual rainfall. The 2014 was 12% below normal, affecting grain production, so the concern is that another deficient monsoon could further impact grain production.   

The USDA estimates rice production for the 2014/15 marketing year (October to September) to be 102.5 million tons, down from 106.54 million tons the previous year.  This decline in production is forecast to reduce carryover stocks and exports. The USDA Post forecasts 2015/16 rice exports to decline to 8.5 million tons from 10.2 million tons in 2014/15. India is also expected to be a net importer of wheat this year as untimely rains in March and April of this year damaged production.
Cuba Rice Crop is Fac

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