Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap -
Prices Seen Stable ahead of USDA WASDE Report
Jun 09, 2015
The U.S. cash market was unchanged
today ahead of the USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report
due out Wednesday morning.Analysts note that most market participants believe
there will be little to no changes made to the U.S. balance sheet; however,
some contend that the price direction will likely be guided by the report’s
impact on the grain complex.
Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan Rice
Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Today
Jun 09, 2015
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5
per ton to around $360 - $370 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers lowered their
quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $475- $485 per ton.
Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per
ton to around $390 - $400 per ton. India rice sellers kept their quotes
unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $5 per
ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India
5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about a $15 per ton
discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton, down about a
$5 per ton from yesterday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, about a $10 per
ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25%
rice is indicated at around $360 - $370, about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan
25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, down
about a $5 per ton from yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around
$355 - $365 per ton, about a $55 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
shown at around $410 - $420 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton,
on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about a $15
per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $295 -
$305 per ton.
Vietnam Rice Exports to African
Destinations More than Double in April 2015
Jun 09, 2015
Vietnam exported around 71,993 tons
of rice to Africa (about 11% of total April 2015 exports), over two times more
from around 34,545 tons exported in March 2015, and down about 29% from around
101,779 tons exported in April 2014, according to USDA. The increase is
attributed to export
promotion strategies implemented by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT)
in the African countries.Vietnam has exported around 668,177 tons of rice in
April 2015, about 9% more from around 613,164 tons exported in March 2015, and
up about 24% from around 538,623 tons exported in April 2014. While share of
Vietnam's rice exports to Asia declined in April 2015, its share of exports to
Africa, Americas, Europe and Australia increased during the month.
Asia accounted for around 520,386
tons (about 78% of total rice exports by Vietnam in April 2015) in April 2015.
Month-on-month, Vietnam's rice exports to Asian destinations declined about 3%
from around 536,838 tons exported in March 2015. Year-on-year, they increased
about 47.5% from around 352,778 tons exported in April 2014.Vietnam exported around
67,757 tons of rice to American destinations (about 10% of April 2015 exports),
up about 82% from around 37,255 tons exported in March 2015, and down about
5.5% from around 71,693 tons exported in April 2014.
Vietnam's exports to Australia (about 0.7% of April 2015
exports) increased about 3 times to around 4,729 tons in April 2015 from around
1,618 tons exported in March 2015 and declined about 2.8 times from around
1,713 tons exported in April 2014.
Vietnam's exports to Europe and CIS
countries (about 0.5% of total April 2015 exports) accounted for around 3,312
tons, about 14% more from around 2,908 tons exported in March 2015 and about
69% below from around 10,660 tons exported in April 2014.In terms of grade, 5%
broken rice exports accounted for around 196,338 tons (or, about 29% of total
April 2015 exports); Jasmine rice exports accounted for around 132,322 tons
(or, about 20% of total April 2015 exports); 15% broken rice exports accounted
for around 94,750 tons (or, about 14% of total exports in April 2015);
25% broken rice exports accounted for around 92,878 tons (or, about 14% of
total exports in April 2015); glutinous rice exports accounted for around
48,484 tons (or, about 7% of total April 2015 exports); and 10%, 100% and other
varieties accounted for around 103,405 tons (or, about 15% of total exports in
April 2015).
IRRI Promotes Stress-Tolerant
Rice Varieties in Cambodia and Nepal
Jun 09, 2015
The Philippines-based International
Rice Research Institute (IRRI) is promoting the use of stress-tolerant rice
varieties in Cambodia and Nepal under a USAID-financed project as part of
efforts to help farmers to adapt to climate change challenges, according to
Cambodia news sources.The project will last three years and about $3 million is
allocated to each of the two countries.
It will basically support both the countries
to adapt to drought and flooding problems by training farmers, seed companies
and farmers' associations to use better quality seeds for their crops.The IRRI
representative in Cambodia launched the project in the country's capital on
June 8, 2015. Around one thousand farmers will be selected across the country
and provided with sample seeds. The IRRI representative told local sources that
presently most of the farmers use their own seeds from previous crop or import
from Thailand or Vietnam. The project will encourage for production of quality
seeds within the country as well as create awareness among farmers to use
quality seeds to increase yields.
Nearly one million hectares of
farmland in Cambodia is reportedly damaged by the drought and floods between
2011 and 2013, according to the Secretary of State at the Ministry of
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries.USDA estimates Cambodia MY 2014-15
(January 2015 - December 2015) paddy rice production at around 7.344 million
tons (around 4.7 million tons, milled basis), slightly down from around 7.383
million tons (around 4.725 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14. It
estimates Cambodia to export around 1.1 million tons of rice in 2015, up about
10% from an estimated 1 million tons in 2014
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Continue to Trek Higher but Now Face Overhead Resistance at
$10.000 per cwt
Jun 09, 2015
rice futures for Jul delivery
settled 3.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $9.980 per cwt (about
$220 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly higher with only corn
dipping slightly by the ringing of the closing bell; Soybeans closed about 0.8%
higher at $9.5150 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.8% higher at $5.3225 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.1% lower at $3.6500 per bushel.U.S.
stocks traded mixed as investors eyed recovery in bond yields and growing
support for a rate hike in September. Gains were muted, with the Dow Jones
industrial average remaining in negative territory for the year. It fell into
the red on Monday.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Survey showed 5.376 million job openings in April, the highest since December
2000. Wholesale inventories showed an increase of 0.4% in April, above
expectations of a 0.2% rise. U.S. small business confidence increased to a
five-month high in May of 98.3, the highest since December, according to the
National Federation of Independent Business. In the absence of major economic
reports this week, analyst focus remains on Thursday's retail sales report. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 16 points, or 0.09%, at 17,782. The
S&P 500 traded up 2 points, or 0.09%, at 2,081, with consumer staples
leading six sectors higher and information technology the greatest decliner.
The Nasdaq traded down 16 points, or
0.32%, at 5,002. The index has not closed below 5,000 since May 13. Gold is
trading about 0.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.4% higher, and the
U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago
time.Monday, there were 506 contracts traded, down from 720 contracts traded on
Friday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday
decreased by 15 contracts to 11,762.
Thailand Considers to Sell
Stockpiled Rice to Consumers Directly
Jun 09, 2015
The government of Thailand is
considering to sell stockpiled rice directly to consumers as part of efforts to
reduce rice stocks in the country as soon as possible, according to local
sources.The Prime Minister reportedly instructed the Ministry of Commerce to
urgently sell rice via various channels in order to reduce storage costs as
well as reduce losses associated with deterioration of the stocks.The Commerce
Minister told local sources that the Ministry is planning to set a working team
to consider selling stockpiled rice directly to consumers in small packs. He
noted that the Ministry will discuss the plan with the Public Warehouse
Organisation, Marketing Organisation for Farmers, Foreign Trade Department and
Internal Trade Department and estimate the appropriate amount of rice that can
be sold to consumers.
The Minister also stated that of the
16-17 million tons of stockpiled rice, only 2 million tons are of good quality
and the government may consider selling that to consumers directly as packaged
rice. He added that the remaining rice would be sent for upgradation before
selling to consumers.Some experts have warned the government to ensure that the
decision would not distort the market mechanism and hurt existing traders as
the supply of packaged rice increases in the market. They also suggested that
the price should be close to the market price in order to ensure that farmers
and traders are not disadvantaged.
The Ministry will auction 1.06
million tons of rice on June 15. It sold It had sold about 1.88 million tons of
rice from six auctions raising around 25.58 billion baht (around $785.2
million) since it seized power in May 2014. It also reportedly sold one million
tons of rice under government-to-government contracts. It aims to sell about 10
million tons of stockpiled rice this year and about 7 million tons next year.Separately,
the Rice Department is planning to restructure the rice production system in
order to reduce costs and increase yields. The Department has collaborated with
the local governments to improve the rice production system, according the
Director-General of the Rice Department.
Pakistan Basmati Rice Export
Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Month in May 2015
Jun 09, 2015
Pakistan basmati rice prices have
declined for third consecutive month in May 2015 after increasing continuously
for two months, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).Though
the decline has not been so much pronounced in March and April this year, it
can be attributed to better rice growing prospects due to adequate availability
of irrigation water in major rice growing areas, increased distribution of
certified seeds and increased allocation of institutional credit over last
year.
According to a recent report by the country's Federal
Committee on Agriculture (FCA), the government has fixed a target of 7 million
tons, basis milled, (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) from an area of
around 2.8 million hectares. In May 2015, Pakistan's basmati rice export
prices have declined by about 9% to around $895 per ton from around $980 per
ton in April 2015, and down about 34% from their year-ago levels of around
$1,350 per ton.
In terms of local currency, average
Pakistan basmati rice prices in May 2015 declined by about 9% to around PKR
90,887 per ton (using historical exchange rates) from around PKR 99,617 per ton
in April 2015, and down about 31% from around PKR 131,328 per ton in May 2014.Average
Pakistan basmati rice prices stood at around $943 per ton in the first five
months of 2015 (January - May), down about 31% from around $1,361 per ton
recorded during the same period last year.
Average basmati rice prices
increased between August and September 2014 and peaked to around $1,450 per ton
in September 2014 due to fears of a fall in production as floods affected large
area of basmati rice acreage in Punjab. However, the overall production
of basmati rice has not been significantly affected by floods.Currently,
Pakistan basmati growers have been urging the government to provide adequate
support to increase competitiveness of Pakistan's basmati rice in the global
market.
Global Rice Quotes
June
10th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand
100% B grade 365-375 ↔
Vietnam
5% broken 350-360 ↔
India
5% broken 375-385 ↔
Pakistan
5% broken 385-395 ↓
Myanmar
5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia
5% broken 430-440 ↔
U.S.
4% broken 465-475 ↔
Uruguay
5% broken 565-575 ↔
Argentina
5% broken 555-565 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand
25% broken 340-350 ↔
Vietnam
25% broken 330-340 ↔
Pakistan
25% broken 350-360 ↔
Cambodia
25% broken 410-420 ↔
India
25% broken 360-370 ↔
U.S.
15% broken 455-465 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 360-370 ↔
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 410-420 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365
↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 840-850 ↔
Vietnam
Jasmine 475-485 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 820-830 ↔
Brokens
Thailand
A1 Super 315-325 ↔
Vietnam
100% broken 315-325 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 295-305 ↔
Cambodia
A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India
100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔
Egypt
medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S.
pet food 365-375 ↔
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All
prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Continue Noted Slightly Higher as Market Approaches Overhead
Resistance at $10.000
Jun 09, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul
delivery are currently seen trading 1.5 cents per cwt (about $0.33 per ton)
higher at $9.960 per cwt (about $220 per ton) during early floor trading in
Chicago. The other grains are seen trading higher; soybeans are currently
seen trading about 0.8% higher, wheat is listed about 0.9% higher and corn is
currently noted about 0.7% higher.U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors
sought further insight on the timing of a rate hike from economic data.
Analysts are watching a support
level of 2,070 on the S&P 500 after the index closed below its 100-day
moving average on Monday.
The S&P and Dow Jones industrial average attempted gains in early trade.
Energy rose 0.6%, boosted by gains in oil, to lead sector advancers in the
S&P. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is expected at 10:00 a.m. ET and should show
continued strength in the labor market, which would further solidify the case
for a September short-term interest rate hike. U.S. small business confidence
increased to a five-month high in May of 98.3, the highest since December,
according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
However, analysts are more focused on Thursday's retail sales
report in the absence of major economic reports this week. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average traded up 24 points, or 0.13%, at 17,789. The S&P 500 traded up 2
points, or 0.10%, at 2,081, with energy leading eight sectors higher and
information technology and consumer discretionary the only laggards. The Nasdaq
traded down 4 points, or 0.08%, at 5,017. Gold is currently trading about 0.5%
higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar
is currently trading about 0.1% higher at 8:45am Chicago time.
Government Sales and Subsidies
Under G2G Contracts May Push Up Thai Rice Exports in Second Half of 2015, Says
USDA Post
Jun 09, 2015
USDA Post forecasts Thailand to export around 11 million tons of rice in
2015. It is expecting Thai rice exports to accelerate in the second half of the
year due to an increase in the sales of government rice stocks and
government-to-government (G2G) contracts as the government has decided to
resume public tenders for 2 million tons of stockpiled rice in June and July.
It reportedly suspended sales of rice stocks during the seasonal harvest of
off-season rice in April and May.
The Post also reports that on May 6,
2015, the Thai government has finalized another G2G deal to export 2 million
tons of white rice from the new crop for delivery in 2015 an 2016. This will
consist of 1 million metric tons of new-crop white rice and 1 million metric
tons from government stocks, according to the Post. The government is expected
to complete the shipping of about one million tons to China by August 2015
under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in April 2014.
Major part of the shipments under
the G2G contracts were subcontracted to rice exporters as the government
had only old-crop in its rice stocks. Eligible exporters have been offered
subsidies of around $10-20 per ton which was paid in form of rice from the
government stocks.The Post reports that rice will not be traded in the Agricultural
Futures Exchange of Thailand (AFET) after it is merged with the Thailand
Futures Exchange PLC (TFEX), a subsidiary of the Stock Exchange of Thailand
(SET), reports the Post.
According to a field survey
conducted by the Post in May 2015, total planted area of the second off-season
crop in the central plains and the lower northern regions stood at around 2.2
million rai (around 380,000 hectares), including around 1.7 million rai (around
300,000 hectares) in the central plains and around 0.5 million rai (around
80,000 hectares) in the northern region.
The Post forecasts MY 2014-15 (January -
December 2015) milled rice production at around 19.4 million metric tons,
slightly down from an estimated 20.46 million tons in MY 2013-14 due to minimal
drought damage so far in the second off-season rice crop. The Post reports
that as of May 22, drought damaged areas of the off-season rice crop remains
stood at around 1.2 million rai (200,000 million hectares).According to the
Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), the rainy season officially began on May
22, 2015 and will end by mid October. It expects normal precipitation in major
rice growing areas during June to August.
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