FAO Forecasts Global Milled Rice Production to Increase in 2015-16
Jun 04, 2015
In its June Cereal
Supply and Demand brief, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization forecasts
2015-16 global milled rice production at around 500.5 million tons, up about 1.3% from an
estimated 494.2 million tons in 2014-15; and slightly up from its last month's
forecast of around 500.1 million tons.
The FAO attributes
the increase in global rice production to more buoyant prospects for China and
West African nations. It expects large increases in production in India, China,
Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
The FAO estimates
2015-16 global rice utilization
at around 508.6 million tons, up about 1.8% from an estimated 499.7 million
tons in 2014-15, and slightly up from last month's estimates of around 508.3
million tons. The FAO anticipates the average per capita rice consumption in
2015-16 at around 57 kilograms.
The FAO estimates
2015-16 global rice stocks at
around 168.8 million tons, down about 4.5% from an estimated 181 million tons
last year and slightly down from last month's forecast of around 168.2 million
tons. The UN agency expects most of the declines in India, Thailand,
Bangladesh, Myanmar and Indonesia.
The FAO estimates
2016 global rice trade at
around 42.5 million tons, up about 2.4% from an estimated 41.5 million tons in
2015 and slightly up from last month's forecast of around 42.4 million tons.
The 2016 trade recovery would be fueled by a renewed demand by the traditional
large importers, including Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines but
also Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria and sustained by continuing large availabilities
in exporting countries, says the FAO. The FAO says its forecasts are
subject to uncertainty and would largely depend on the unfolding of the 2015
rice seasons.
Global Rice Quotes
June 5th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high
quality
Thailand 100% B grade 370-380 ↔
Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔
India 5% broken 375-385 ↔
Pakistan 5% broken 395-405 ↑
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 465-475 ↔
Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔
Long grain white rice - low
quality
Thailand 25% broken 340-350 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 330-340 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 350-360 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔
India 25% broken 360-370 ↔
U.S. 15% broken 455-465 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 365-375 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken
stxd 410-420 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 840-850 ↔
Vietnam Jasmine 470-480 ↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 820-830 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 310-320 ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 365-375 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB
vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures to Show Strength despite
Weak Export Demand
Jun 04, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Jul delivery settled 6 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton)
higher at $9.925 per cwt (about $219 per ton). The other grains finished the
day with gains as well; Soybeans closed about 1.2% higher at $9.4650 per
bushel; wheat finished about 2.6% higher at $5.2375 per bushel, and corn
finished the day about 1.3% higher at $3.6350 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded
lower on Thursday as the recent bond selloff and lack of resolution on Greece
kept investors on edge in a quiet day of economic releases leading up to
Friday's employment report. In choppy trade, the Dow Jones industrial average
traded more than 180 points lower to below its 50-day moving avereage.
The
blue chip index briefly swung into positive territory after falling more than
100 points in the open. The Nasdaq traded about 50 points lower after also
attempting slight gains. The S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday despite the bond selloff. European
equity markets closed lower as the yield surge raised fears that higher
borrowing costs could hurt corporate profits and the economic recovery. Asian
shares ended the session mixed, with Shanghai recovering from a 5% plunge to
end modestly higher and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index only just closing
in positive territory. Greece will bundle its four debt payments to the
International Monetary Fund due this month into a single payment now due on
June 30, the IMF said on Thursday. U.S. non-farm productivity fell at a 3.1%
annual rate in the first quarter, down sharply from the previously reported
1.9% rate.
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 175 points, or 0.97%, at 17,899. The
S&P 500 traded down 19 points, or 0.89%, at 2,095, with materials leading
all 10 sectors lower. The Nasdaq traded down 44 points, or 0.87%, at 5,054.
Gold is trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.9% lower,
and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about flat at about 1:00pm Chicago
time.
Wednesday, there
were 707 contracts traded, unchanged from 707 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 277
contracts to 11,955.
FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines for Ninth Consecutive Month
Jun 04, 2015
The
FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 215 points in May 2015, down about
1.4% from around 218 points in April 2015 due to a decline in the Higher
Quality Indica, Japonica and Aromatic sub-indices. However, the Lower Quality
sub-index increased slightly over last month.
The
FAO index has been declining continuously since September 2014. It declined
about 10% during the 9-month period. The Higher Quality sub-index declined
about 2 points or about 1% to around 186 points, while the Lower Quality Indica
sub-index increased by about 1 point, or about 0.5% to around 190 points in May
2015. Japonica sub-index declined by about 5 points, or about 1.8% to around
266 points this month from around 271 points last month. The Aromatic sub-index
declined by about 8 points or about 4% to around 185 points in May 2015. The
decline in Aromatic sub-index is mainly due to a decline in basmati rice prices,
according to the FAO.
In January
- May 2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 219 points, down about 6.7%
from around 235 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher
quality Indica rice prices declined about 9.1% y/y and sub-index for lower
quality Indica rice prices declined about 5.1% y/y. Aromatic rice price
sub-index declined about 27.4% y/y. However, sub-index for Japonica rice prices
increased about 4.6% y/y. According to the FAO, rice export prices in the
Asian origins such as Vietnam, India and Thailand declined but increased in
Pakistan due to a tightening of supplies along with a strong demand from East
African nations. Export prices in the U.S., Argentina and Uruguay also declined
due to slow export sales.
During
May 2015, average rice export prices of all Thai varieties, including Thai 100%
broken rice, Thai parboiled rice, Thai A1 Super, Thai fragrant rice, Thai 5%
rice and Thai 25% rice declined to around $394 per ton, $388 per ton, $326 per
ton, $1,057 per ton, $385 per ton and $372 per ton respectively. Export prices
of Vietnam and India 25% broken rice declined to around $333 per ton and $347
per ton respectively. Export prices of Pakistan 25% broken rice increased
to around $353 per ton. Export prices of the U.S. and Uruguay rice declined to
around $492 per ton and around $550 per ton respectively.
Government of Pakistan May Increase Import Duty on Rice in FY 2015-16
Jun 04, 2015
Based
on the proposition by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research
(MNFSR), the government of Pakistan may increase import duty on basmati rice as
well as broken rice to encourage domestic production and protect local farmers,
according to local sources.The Ministry has proposed to increase the import
duty on basmati rice from the existing 10% to around 30% in FY 2015-16 (July -
June) since import of basmati is expected to impact local production.
It
also proposed to increase the import duty on non-basmati broken rice from the
existing 10% to about 30% during the next fiscal year to protect the interests
of rice farmers.Since rice is second largest export product that earns
considerable foreign exchange for Pakistanm the government is keen on increasing
production and exports of the commodity by placing import restrictions.Pakistan
has exported around 3.45 million tons of rice (around 428,051 tons of basmati
and around 3.02 million tons of non-basmati) in the first ten months of FY
2014-15 (July 2014 - June 2015) earning about $1,750 million (around $449
million from basmati and around $1,301 million from non-basmati), according to
data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.The Ministry also proposed increase in
import duty for wheat, wheat flour, crystalline cane and dairy products.
USDA estimates
Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production at around 6.9
million tons (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14. It
estimates Pakistan to export 3.8 million tons of rice and import 20,000 tons of
rice during the year.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Jun 04, 2015
Rain is expected
across the Yangtze Valley, Central and Eastern area of South China, and Northern area of North China Plain this week.
Rain is expected
across Southern, East and Central India this week, which will maintain favourable moisture for
kharif rice planting.
Rain is expected
Central Pakistan, and also
expected to continue in Northern Bangladesh this week.
In Indonesia, rain is expected across much of the region this week,
which will slow main season rice harvesting.
Light rain showers
are expected across Northern Thailand, and Central and Northern Vietnam this week. However, dryness and stress on main season
rice will increase elsewhere.
In the Philippines, rain showers are expected across much of the region
this week.
A few showers are
expected in Eastern and North-western portions of the Northeast Brazil this week.
Rains is expected
across Uruguay and Eastern Argentina this week, which will slow rice harvesting there.
In the U.S., light rain showers are expected in North-eastern
portions of the Delta this week.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Hold Gains despite Weak
Export Sales Report
Jun 04, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen trading 5.5 cents per
cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $9.920 per cwt (about $219 per ton) during
early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading higher;
soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.6% higher, wheat is listed about
1.2% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.5% higher.U.S. stocks traded
lower on Thursday as the recent bond selloff kept investors on edge
in a quiet day of economic releases leading up toFriday's employment
report.
The Dow Jones industrial average briefly swung
into positive territory after falling more than 100 points in the open. The
Nasdaq also attempted slight gains. The U.S. Federal Reserve should delay a
rate hike until the first half of 2016 until there are signs of a pickup in
wages and inflation, the International Monetary Fund said in its annual
assessment of the economy on Thursday. Analysts said investors mostly
disregarded the news. Before the bell, weekly jobless claims came in at
276,000, below expectations and last week's 282,000 figure.
The
report comes ahead of the May U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
U.S. non-farm productivity fell at a 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter,
down sharply from the previously reported 1.9% rate. European equity markets
declined as the yield surge raised fears that higher borrowing costs could hurt
corporate profits and the economic recovery. Asian shares ended the session
mixed, with Shanghai recovering from a 5 percent plunge to end modestly higher
and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index only just closing in positive
territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 62 points, or 0.35%, at
18,008. The S&P 500 traded down 7 points, or 0.33%, at 2,104, with
telecommunications leading all 10 sectors lower. The Nasdaq traded down 11
points, or 0.21%, at 5,088. Gold is currently trading about 0.8% lower, crude
oil is seen trading about 1.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently
trading about 0.3% lower at 9:15am Chicago time.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Hold Despite Tepid Export Sales
Jun 04, 2015
The
U.S. cash market was unchanged today despite tepid export sales numbers as bids
and offers remained unchanged with both sides standing firm.The USDA reported
that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on May 28th,
totaled 34,200 tons, which was 51% lower than last week and 16% lower than the
prior 4-week average.
Increases
were reported for the following destinations including: 10,500 tons to Haiti,
5,900 tons to Canada, 5,000 tons to unknown destinations, 3,500 tons to
Guatemala, and 2,600 tons to tons Saudi Arabia, while decreases of 200 tons
were reported for Taiwan.Nets sales of 23,000 tons for 2015/2016 were reported
for the following destinations including: 13,000 tons to Colombia, and 10,000
tons to South Korea.U.S. rice exporters shipped 58,500 tons, which was 5% lower
than last week and 18% lower than the prior 4-week average. The primary
destinations included: 13,800 tons to Libya, 12,000 tons to Japan, 8,800 tons
to Taiwan, 8,300 tons to Mexico, and 4,500 tons to El Salvador.
Philippines Will Reach 20.08 Million Tons Paddy Target in 2015 Despite El
Nino Threat, Says DA Official
Jun 04, 2015
The
Philippines is expected to reach the 20.08 million tons paddy (around 12.65
million tons, basis milled) target by the end of 2015 despite fears of an
impending El Nino as the Department of Agriculture (DA) is planning for
necessary interventions, local sources quoted the DA Assistant Secretary for
Field Operations as saying.The DA official told local sources that the DA has
decided to adhere to the set target for this year despite recommendations by
the Food Security Committee (FSC) to revise their 2015 paddy production target
to 19.5 million tons (around 12.28 million tons, basis milled) taking into
account the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to cause below-normal
rainfall or prolonged dry spell. The FSC also suggested that their recommendation
is in line with the projected output of 19.02 million tons by the Philippine
Statistics Authority-Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (PSA-BAS).
However,
the DA Assistant Secretary noted that the 2015 target of 20.08 million tons has
been set with proper ground work and it is not a guess work. "We may miss
this target, but at least we aimed for it,” he said.Recently, the DA
official also requested the government to increase the budget for the rice
sector development next year to around P11 billion (around $246 million) from
next year from the current P6.6 billion (around $148 million).Meanwhile the
National Food Authority (NFA) is preparing for the onset of lean months from
July to September. It is continuing with paddy procurement from farmers and has
procured around 1.593 million tons of paddy as on May 26, over and above its
procurement target of around 1.202 million tons. It noted that the selling
prices of NFA rice will not be increased in the near term. Rice stocks with the
NFA are at around 2.78 million tons, sufficient to last for about 90 days,
according to a news release on the government website.
The NFA has called for tenders from Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia for importing 250,000 tons of 25% broken well-milled long-grain rice on June 5. NFA is authorized to import another 250,000 tons of rice if the drought-inducing El Nino weather condition intensifies.
The Philippines already imported 500,000 tons of rice from Vietnam and Thailand this year to curb price increases and boost buffer stocks. Last year, the South-east Asian nation imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. USDA estimates the South-East Asian nation to produce around 19.683 million tons of paddy (around 12.4 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15 (July - June) and import 1.3 million tons of rice in 2015.
Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Most of Their Quotes Today; Vietnam, India Rice
Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes
Jun 04, 2015
Thailand rice
sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice and Hommali
rice by about a $5 per ton each today. Vietnam rice sellers increased
their quotes for 25% broken rice by about a $5 per ton. India rice sellers
increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about a $10 per ton. Pakistan
rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday
and about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 -
$360 per ton.
India 5% rice is
indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to
Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $390 - $400per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and
about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per
ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 25% rice is
indicated at around $360 - $370, up about a $10 per ton from yesterday and
about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per
ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton.
India parboiled rice
is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $55 per ton discount to
Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $410 - $420 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken
rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $5 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.
India's 100% broken
rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount
to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $295 - $305 per ton.
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