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July 14,
2015
Vol 5 ,Issue VII
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Italian 2015 Rice
Acreage Estimated to Increase 3.2% y/y to 226,600 Hectres
Jul 13, 2015
Based on the survey
of Italian rice farmers, Ente Nazionale Risi, the National Agency for Rice
estimates Italian rice acreage to increase about 3.2% to around 226,600
hectares from around 219,532 tons in 2014.
About 50% or around
1,944 farmers have been surveyed. The agency has instructed all the farmers to
furnish their rice planting details by July 10, 2015
According to latest
data available as on July 10, round varieties are expected to be planted in
about 57,700 hectares, up about 9.56% from around 52,667 hectares last year.
Medium rice acreage is expected to increase about 21.81% y/y to around 8,600
hectares. Long A acreage is expected to increase about 21.14% y/y to around
126,600 hectares and Long B acreage is expected to decline about 39.06% y/y to
around 226,600 hectares.
Falling Production
Expected to Tighten U.S. Rice Supplies in MY 2015-16 , Says USDA
Jul 13, 2015
In
its latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA
estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies at around 12.63 million tons, down
about 4% from last month's estimates of around 13.13 million tons due to an
expected decline in production. It expects U.S. long-grain rice supply at
around 9.05 million tons. down about 6% from its last month's estimate of
around 9.62 million tons. However, it estimates U.S. short and medium grain
rice supply at around 3.47 million tons, slightly up from last month's
estimates of 3.4 million tons.
USDA
estimates U.S. all rice production (milled basis) at around 9.39 million tons,
down from last month's estimate of 9.93 million tons due to an estimated
decline in paddy rice acreage. Long-grain rice production is estimated at
around 6.92 million tons, down from last month's estimate of 7.35 million tons;
and short- and medium- grain production is estimated at around 2.47 million tons,
down from last month's estimate of 2.59 million tons. It forecasts 2105-16
production to decline about 6% from an estimated 10.02 million tons last year.
Global Rice Quotes
July 13th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 395-405 ↑
Vietnam 5% broken 345-355
↔
India 5% broken 385-395
↑
Pakistan 5% broken 375-385
↑
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435
↔
U.S. 4% broken 470-480
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545
↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 360-370
↑
Vietnam 25% broken 325-335
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 335-345
↑
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420
↔
India 25% broken 350-360
↔
U.S. 15% broken 445-455
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 395-405 ↑
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 370-380 ↓
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 490-500
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 315-325
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 310-320
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360
↔
India 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 350-360
↔
Brazil half grain NQ
↔
All
prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
European Commission Plans to Import Vietnam Rice at Zero
Percent Duty
Jul 13, 2015
The European
Commission (EC) is planning to import rice from Vietnam at zero percent duty
within the framework of the negotiations on 'free trade agreement', according
to the website www.risoitaliano.eu.
The EC is reportedly
planning to import round 76,000 tons of rice, including 30,000 tons of jasmine
rice, 30,000 tons of Long B milled rice and 16,000 tons of husked rice from
Vietnam under the agreement.
Currently EU imports
rice at zero percent duty from Asian least developed countries (LDCs) such as
Cambodia and Myanmar under the Everything But Arms (EBA) agreement. The latest
decision is not reportedly well received by the European rice growing
sector, which has been already urging the EC to curb increasing rice imports
from the Asian LDCs in order to protect the local rice sector.
The Italian rice
sector, particularly, has been seeking a safeguard clause against rice
imports from Asian LDCs under the EBA agreement. However, with the latest
development, there are concerns among the Italian rice sector as well as
other EU rice growers on the EC's plans of adopting a safeguard
clause against the EBA rice imports.
The European rice
sector is now fearing whether the EU may also consider including Thailand rice
under the agreement eventually. They say the EU market is already flooded with
the Asian rice and is undermining the local rice varieties. The EU currently
imports around 300,000 tons of rice from the EBA countries.
FAO Estimates
Indonesia 2015 Rice Imports to Decline Due to Favorable Production Outlook
The UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Indonesia to import around 900,000
tons of rice in 2015, down about 10% from an estimated one million tons last
year due to a favorable outlook for 2015 aggregate rice production and
self-sufficiency policies. It estimates Indonesia's total cereal imports in
2015-16 at around 11.8 million tons, up about 2% from around 11.57 million tons
last year.
The FAO estimates
Indonesia's 2015 aggregate paddy rice production at around 75.6 million tons
(around 48.34 million tons of rice, basis milled), up about 7% from an
estimated 70.61 million tons (around 45.2 million tons of rice, basis milled)
in 2014.
Harvesting of the
2015 main season paddy crop (mid-October to mid-May) is complete. Rains have
improved across the country since December 2014 despite a slow start of the
2014-15 rainy season (November - March). Favourable weather conditions, coupled
with diverse initiatives launched by the government to support production,
including the rehabilitation of irrigation channels, distribution of subsidized
seeds and fertilizers, are expected to increase the yields of the 2015 main
season, says the FAO. It also expects a slight expansion in area planted for
the 2015 secondary season rice crop (June to mid-December), which is now at the
planting stage.
The country's
aggregate rice production is expected to be impacted by the onset of a weak to
moderate El Nino event. Global meteorological and oceanic institutions are
predicting the El Nin effect to continue throughout 2015 and first months of
2016.
The government has
been aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production this year and
accordingly has been providing support to the sector.
Average rice prices
have been increasing since September 2014 and have reached record levels in
March 2015. However, since April, prices reversed direction due to the
government intervention as well as increased supplies from the 2015 main season
rice crop. However, prices are supported by lower rice imports in January - May
this year compared to the same period last year. Currently, prices stand at
around 9.875 million Rupiah (around $751) per ton, down from around 10 million
Rupiah (around $770) per ton in April 2015 and down about 12.5% from their year
ago levels, according to the FAO price data.
USDA estimates
Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around
57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice
in MY 2014-15 (October - September).
Oryza Afternoon
Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Trade Lower as Market Continues to Weigh
USDA Report Results
Chicago
rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 15 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton)
lower at $10.935 per cwt (about $241 per ton). The other grains finished with
mixed results today; Soybeans closed about 0.7% higher at $10.2900 per bushel;
wheat finished about 0.1% lower at $5.7550 per bushel, and corn finished the
day about 1.7% higher at $4.5225 per bushel.
U.S.
stocks rallied nearly 1% or more on Monday, following gains overseas, on news
of a bailout agreement between Greece and its creditors. European Council
President Donald Tusk said early on Monday that euro zone leaders reached an
unanimous agreement with Greece after all-night talks in Brussels to move
forward with a bailout loan for the cash-strapped nation, provided Athens
implement tough reforms. To receive this third bailout, Greece's parliament
must pass the new rules in areas such as privatization, labor laws and pension
reforms by Wednesday.
The 86 billion euro ($95.2 billion) in funds
would come over three years. In the meantime, euro zone finance ministers were
expected to discuss Monday how to keep Greece financed before the bailout deal
is reached. Athens faces a 7 billion euro repayment deadline on July 20 to the
European Central Bank. European stocks jumped on news of the conditional Greece
deal, with the German DAX up about 1.5% and the STOXX Europe 600 up nearly 2%.
In Asia, stocks surged with the Nikkei up 1.57% and the Shanghai Composite
leaping 2.4% as it extended a recovery from a recent plunge.
No economic data or earnings of note are
expected Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 176 points, or
0.99%, at 17,936. The S&P 500 traded up 18 points, or 0.86%, at 2,094, with
information technology leading nine sectors higher and utilities the only
decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 64 points, or 1.28%, at 5,061. Gold is trading
about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen trading unchanged, and the U.S. dollar is
seen trading at about 0.7% higher at about 1:15pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were
1,154 contracts traded, up from 575 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest
– the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 116 contracts to
9,395.
Conab Estimates
Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production to Increase 3% y/y to 12.499 Million Tons
Jul 13, 2015
Brazil’s National
Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice
production at around 12.499 million tons (around 8.50 million tons, basis
milled), up about 3% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons,
basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly down from its June forecast of around
12.544 million tons.
Conab has estimated
Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.292 million hectares, down
about 3.4% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14. Paddy rice acreage in
the key rice growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.548
million hectares in 2014-15, down about 1% from around 1.565 million hectares
in 2013-14. Rice acreage in the North/Northeast regions is estimated at around
747,600 hectares, down 7.5% from around 808,400 hectares in 2013-14.
Philippines Rice
Stocks Sufficient for 89 Days, Says BAS
Jul 13, 2015
The Philippines rice
stocks have declined in June 2015 after increasing in April and May, according
to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).
Total rice stocks in
the Philippines as of June 1, 2015 reached around 3.02 million tons, down about
5% from around 3.17 million tons recorded in May 2015, and up about 31% from
around 2.31 million tons recorded during the same period last year.
Month-on-month,
household rice stocks are down about 22%, commercial warehouse rice stocks are
up about % and NFA rice stocks - in which about 91.5% are imported rice - are
up about 22%, according to the BAS.
The BAS says that
the Philippines' rice stocks as of June 1, 2015 are enough to last for 89 days
(household stocks are enough for 34 days, commercial warehouses stocks are
enough for 33 days and stocks with NFA are enough for 22 days).
The government is
planning to ramp up imports to ensure adequate stocks and avoid price hikes in
the country. The National Food Authority (NFA) has decided to import 650,000
tons of rice (200,000 tons from Thailand and 450,000 tons from Vietnam) under
government-to-government deals in 2015 to ensure adequate stocks in the lean
season (June – September). It is further planning to import 805,200 tons of
rice through private importers under the WTO minimum access volume (MAV) rule.
It imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of
2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish
rice stocks and control price hikes.
Oryza U.S. Rough
Rice Recap - Prices Dip with Futures; Crop Condition Improves by 1%
Jul 13, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was softer today falling in sympathy with the futures market as more sellers
came to the market looking to their remaining old crop before the upcoming
harvest.
In the meantime, the
USDA estimates that as of July 12th, 30% of the crop had
headed which was 5% ahead of this time last year and 8% ahead of the previous
5-year average. As of now, the USDA estimates that 18% of the rice crop in
Arkansas had headed compared to , 17% in California, 75% in Louisiana, 32% in
Mississippi, 22% in Missouri, and 54% in Texas.
The USDA estimates
that 71% percent of the crop in good to excellent condition, which was 1%
better than week and 1% better this time last year. As of now, the USDA
estimates that 69% of the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition
compared to, 85% in California, 71% in Louisiana, 78% in Mississippi, 59% in
Missouri, and 53% in Texas.
Pakistan Targets to
Produce 6.9 Million Tons of Milled Rice in 2015-16, Says SUPARCO-FAO Report
Jul 13, 2015
In the July Crop
Monitoring System Bulletin, the National Space Agency of Pakistan (SUPARCO) and
UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report that the Federal Committee
on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed the 2015- 16 (July - June) milled rice
production target at around 6.902 million tons (around 10.21 million tons,
basis paddy) from around 2.836 million hectares. It is targeting an yield of
around 2.434 tons per hectare in 2015-16.
The rice is majorly
grown in Punjab, Sindh, KP and Balochistan provinces.While transplanting of the
IRRI rice for the current kharif crop is ongoing, transplanting of basmati will
be start in July and complete in August. Based on the deliberations of field
teams, SUPARCO reports that the farmers are generally unwilling to sow this
year's kharif crop due to marketing problems faced last year. Some farmers are
reportedly holding stocks from last year. They expect the rice planting area to
decline in some areas of southern and central Punjab and Sindh.
The FAO-SUPARCO
expect higher water requirement due to a persisting heat wave in Karachi,
Larkana, Dadu, Hyderabad, Turbat, Sibbi and Southern
Punjab.
USDA estimates
Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production to increase
about 3% to around 6.9 million tons (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy)
from around 6.7 million tons last year.
Thai Rice Traders
Urge Government to Speed Up Rotten Rice Sales
Jul 13, 2015
Thailand rice
traders are urging the government to speed up sales of rotten rice stocks to
take advantage of the high demand in the market amid concerns of falling
production due to drought conditions, according to local sources.
Last week, the
government decided to auction about 1.29 million tons of rotten rice to biogas
producers.
However, traders
noted that the government should open the auction to general bidders in order
to get a better price. They noted that rotten rice can fetch about 4-5 baht per
kilogram (around $118 - $147 per ton). But inviting only biogas producers for auction
may pull the price to as low as 1-2 baht per kilogram (around $29 - $59 per
ton), they said.
They assured that
the traders would not mix rotten rice with rice meant for consumption as their
reputation would also be at stake.
The President of the
Thai Rice Millers Association (TRMA) noted that both domestic and export prices
have improved over last three weeks. As of July 10, 2015, white paddy rice was
quoted at 8,200 baht per ton (around $241) and jasmine paddy rice (Thai Hom
Mali rice) was quoted at 13,000-15,000 baht per ton (around $382-$441). Export
prices of Thai 5% rice are quoted at around $390 per ton from around $381 per
ton last week, and those of Thai Hom Mali rice increased to around $1,046 per
ton compared to $1,037 per ton last week.
Meanwhile, the
Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) noted that
they have lowered the export target to around 9.5 million tons from around 10
million tons due to a possible fall in production due to drought and increase
in domestic demand, according to Reuters.
However, they are
expecting a higher buying interest from African countries.
Thailand Forecasts
2015 Main Rice Crop Output to Decline 14% to 23.3 Million Tons Due to Drought
Jul 13, 2015
Thailand's Office of
Agricultural Economics (OAE) estimates output from 2015 main rice crop, which
contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline about
14% to around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year due to
persisting drought conditions, according to Bloomberg.
The OAE estimates
the 2015 main rice area to decline to around 56.7 million rai (around 22.68
million hectares) from around 61.8 million rai (around 24.72 million hectares)
last year.
USDA Post Estimates
MY 2015-16 Brazil Rice Exports to Remain Stable at 900,000 Tons
Jul 13, 2015
The USDA Post is
estimating Brazil's MY 2015-16 (April 2015 - March 2016) rice exports at around
900,000 tons, unchanged from MY 2014-15 and USDA's official estimates. The Post
says the pace of exports in 2015 until May has been generally low in line with
the global trend.
Earlier, in April,
the Post reported that with the U.S. relaxing trade restrictions with Cuba,
Brazil is concerned that the U.S. may cut into its market share in Cuba because
of the competitive pricing by the U.S. as well as its proximity and shipping
costs. Cuba accounted for about 11% of Brazil's rice exports in 2014 and
remained the third largest importer of the Brazilian rice after Venezuela and
Senegal.
The Post estimates
MY 2015-16 Brazil rice imports at around 700,000 tons, unchanged from MY
2014-15 and USDA's official estimates.
The Post estimates
2015-16 Brazil's milled rice consumption at around 7.95 million tons, down from
last year's 8 million tons and unchanged from USDA's official forecasts. It
estimates 2014-15 Brazil's ending stocks to increase about 16% to around 1.082
million tons from an estimated 932,000 tons last year.
Thailand, Pakistan
Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; India Rice Quotes Mixed
Jul 13, 2015
Thailand rice
sellers increased their quotes for 5% , 25% broken rice, and parboiled rice by
about $5 per ton each to around $385-$395 per ton, $360-$370 per ton and
$395-$405 per ton respectively today. India rice sellers increased their quotes
for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $385-$395 per ton and lowered
their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $370-$380 per
ton. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25%
broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $375-$385 per ton and $335-$345
per ton respectively. Vietnam rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged
today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from Friday
and about a $40 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around
$345 - $355 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton,
up about a $5 per ton from Friday and about $10 per ton premium on
Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton, up about a $5 per ton
from Friday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from Friday and
about a $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per
ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $15 per ton
premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $335 - $345per ton, up about a $5
per ton from Friday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $395 - $405 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from
Friday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, down
about a $5 per ton from Friday and about a $45 per ton discount to
Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice,
A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100%
broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is
shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on
Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
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