FAO Estimates Iran to Import 1.6 Million Tons of Rice in 2015-16
Jul 01, 2015
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Iran to import around 1.6 million tons of rice in 2015-16 (April - March).The Middle East nation has imposed a temporary ban on rice imports in November 2014 citing excess stocks and has so far not announced removal of the ban. Iran mostly imports basmati rice from India. According to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) in India, Iran imported around 935,568 tons of basmati rice in 2014-15 (April - March), down about 35% from around 1.44 million tons last year.However, the FAO estimates the country's total cereal imports to decline about 8% y/y to around 14.9 million tons.The FAO estimates Iran's 2015 paddy production to increase about 2% to around 2.65 million tons from around 2.6 million tons last year.
Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; India Rice Quotes Mixed
Jul 01, 2015
Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice and Hommali rice by about $5 per ton each to around $375-$385 per ton and $830-$840 per ton respectively. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $380-$390 per ton and $275-$285 per ton respectively and increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $365-$375 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $5 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $345 - $3505 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $365- $375per ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $395 - $405 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.
Indonesia May Register Biggest Annual Paddy Rice Output in Last Ten Years, Says BPS
Jul 01, 2015
Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has estimated that the country's 2015 paddy rice output would increase by about 6.64% to around 75.5 million tons (around 49.83 million tons, basis milled) from around 70.85 million tons (around 46.76 million tons, basis milled) last year, according to Jakarta Post.The agency noted that this would be the biggest annual increase in the last ten years. “The significant increase in rice output this year could happen because of various initiatives undertaken by the government, notably in the distribution of pumps, tractors and fertilizers,” the BPS Head was quoted as saying.
According to the BPS, 2015 paddy rice acreage is estimated to increase about 512,060 hectares or 3.7% y/y to around 14.31 million hectares and average yield during the year is expected to increased about 0.145 tons per hectare or 2.85% y/y to around 5.28 tons per hectare.The government aimed to increase 2015 paddy rice production by about 4% to around 73.4 million tons (around 48.44 million tons, basis milled) in order to be self-sufficient in rice production and avoid imports. Indonesia's new President who took over in October 2014 is keen on achieving self-sufficiency in basic food items such as rice, corn and sugar over the next four years.
Indonesian government has so far not imported any rice in 2015. It imported 425,000 tons in 2014 through the state logistics agency Bulog. But analysts say less stocks and lower production due to El Nino weather pattern could prompt the government to import rice in the second half of the year.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October - September).
Global Rice Quotes
July 1st, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 375-385 ↔
Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔
India 5% broken 380-390 ↓
Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 450-460 ↔
Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 345-355 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 325-335 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔
India 25% broken 350-360 ↔
U.S. 15% broken 440-450 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 375-385 ↑
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd NQ ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 365-375 ↑
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 830-840 ↑
Vietnam Jasmine 475-485 ↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 310-320 ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↓
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 350-360 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Show Strength Despite Grains Showing Signs of Retracement Today
Jul 01, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 4.5 cent per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $10.500 per cwt (about $231 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mostly lower this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.5% lower, wheat is listed about 2.8% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.1% lower.U.S. stocks gained nearly 1% on Wednesday, as investors regained hope of a resolution between Greece and its creditors. The Dow Jones industrial average quickly gained more than 170 points in the open as the major indices extended gains. The Nasdaq Composite also briefly jumped 1 percent as biotechs advanced.
The Dow futures leaped more than 160 points on morning news that Greece Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras accepted lenders' conditions in a two-page letter originally sent to the heads of the European Commission that requested only minor tweaks to their suggestions on pensions and tax reforms. European equities surged on the news, with the DAX up 2.5%. The Athens stock exchange remained closed for the third day. The Eurogroup of regional finance ministers will hold a conference call Wednesday on Greece's latest proposal, but will not likely make a decision until after Sunday's planned referendum, officials told Reuters. In the United States, Wednesday kicks off two days of data reports before the July 4 holiday.
The final June U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers' index fell to 53.6, its lowest since October 2013, Markit said. The ADP private sector employment report showed creation of 237,000 jobs, topping expectations of 218,000. U.S. stocks closed mildly higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 eking out its narrowest gain on record for the first half of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 161 points, or 0.92%, at 17,781. The S&P 500 traded up 15 points, or 0.75%, at 2,078, with financials leading nine sectors higher and energy the only decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 42 points, or 0.84%, at 5,028. Gold is currently trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.7% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.
High Domestic Prices in China Increase Demand for Rice Imports, Says USDA Post
Jul 01, 2015
USDA Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 rice imports at around 4.7 million tons, up about 17.5% from an estimated 4 million tons in MY 2014-15 and unchanged from USDA's official estimates. The Post expects an increase in this year's imports due to high domestic prices.Increased smuggling in southern China is posing a challenge to the government, according to the Post. The government has reportedly seized over 200,000 tons of milled rice in 2014.
The Post has lowered estimates for MY 2014-15 imports by 400,000 tons due to the delayed release of rice TRQs in 2015. Based on trade statistics, the Post reports that Thailand has overtaken Vietnam as largest exporter to China in 2014-15. It reports that Thailand has also adjusted its policies to encourage rice exports following its change in government.
USDA Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at around 206.4 million tons, unchanged from last year and slightly lower from USDA's official estimates of around 208.57 million tons as it expects yields to be negatively impacted by El Nino, with the potential for both droughts and flooding in rice growing regions. Cold weather in early May delayed seeding process in northern regions. However, the Post expects the high support prices to encourage increase in acreage and production.
The Post estimates China's MY 2014-15 rice consumption at around 149 million tons, up from last year's 147 million tons and down from USDA's official estimates of 151 million tons. The Post says high prices, inconsistent quality of state rice reserves, and changing consumption patterns are all contributing to lower consumption growth. On the other hand, CNGOIC forecasts the food demand, industrial and feed demand to decline about 1%, 9% and 4% respectively in 2015-16.Lower consumption means higher stocks and the Post estimates higher stocks in MY 2014-15 and MY 2015-16. Buyers are not showing interest to buy rice from the stocks due to poor quality and higher prices, says the Post. Only 2% of around 7.87 million tons of rice auctioned from the state reserves have been sold in April 2015.
Nigeria's Forex Troubles May Lower Indian Non-Basmati Rice Exports by 10%, Say Exporters
Jul 01, 2015
Nigeria's recent decision to stop forex (dollar) sales to rice and other commodity importers to protect its dwindling forex reserves and depreciating naira is expected to lower India's total non-basmati rice exports by at least 10% this year, Hindu Business Line quoted some exporters.India accounts for nearly half of Nigeria's annual rice import needs of about 2.5 million tons. Nigeria mostly imports parboiled rice from India. A leading non-basmati rice exporter told reporters that the Nigerian move has slowed down rice shipments from India. He noted that it would in fact affect exports of all origins.
Exporters noted that the depreciation of naira against the dollar coupled with falling crude oil prices and change in the government have affected India's exports to Nigeria, but payments have been unaffected as Indian exporters route their shipments through global traders like Platinum Corp and Louis Dreyfus.They expressed confidence that the government would soon react to falling stocks and increasing demand. India exported around 330,279 tons of rice to Nigeria in 2014-15 (April - March), according to the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).
The Nigerian currency depreciated by about 26% to around N196.95/USD from around N155.2/USD during in January 2014, according to data from the CBN.
Nigeria has been a net importer of rice and imports over 50% of its annual rice consumption needs. USDA estimates the country to produce 2.83 million tons of milled rice in the MY 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2014) and import about 4 million tons. The country's consumption needs during the year are estimated at around 6.4 million tons.India exported around 8.3 million tons of non-basmati rice in 2014-15, up about 17% from around 7.1 million tons in 2013-14, according to the APEDA data.
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Rally as Market Continues to Weigh Reduction in Acres and Firming Asian Prices
Jul 01, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 17 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher at $10.625 per cwt (about $234 per ton). The other grains traded mostly lower in morning trading but managed to close off of session lows for the day; Soybeans closed about 0.7% lower at $10.2950 per bushel; wheat finished about 4.4% lower at $5.8850 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.1% higher at $4.3175 per bushel.U.S. stocks held higher in choppy trade on Wednesday, as investors eyed better-than-expected data and the latest developments between Greece and its creditors. Investors remained optimistic of a deal for Greece despite Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' statements the country will go ahead with the referendum on Sunday and that it is not a determinant of whether or not Greece remains in the euro zone, Reuters reported.
Financials led advancers in the S&P 500, gaining about 1% as yields climbed. European equities surged on renewed hopes of a Greece deal, with the DAX up more than 2%. The Athens stock exchange remained closed for the third day in a row. The Eurogroup of regional finance ministers concluded a conference call Wednesday on Greece's latest proposal. No other meeting is expected before Sunday's referendum. Investors also kept an eye on Puerto Rico, which has indicated difficulty repaying its debt of $72 billion.
On Wednesday, the island's electric power authority, or PREPA, reached a deal with its creditors to make its $416 million payment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 98 points, or 0.56%, at 17,718. The S&P 500 traded up 10 points, or 0.50%, at 2,073, with financials leading nine sectors higher and energy the only decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 18 points, or 0.37%, at 5,005. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 4.2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.7% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 1,994 contracts traded, down from 2,902 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 71 contracts to 9,586.
Thailand Lowers Estimates for 2015 Main Rice Crop Output by 9% Due to Prevailing Drought Conditions
Jul 01, 2015
The government of Thailand has lowered its estimates for 2015 main rice crop output by about 2.44 million tons or about 9% to around 24.135 million tons from earlier estimate of around 26.576 million tons due to severe drought conditions prevailing in the main rice growing areas of the Central region, Reuters quoted the latest report by the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE).
The estimate follows the government's advise to farmers last week to delay planting their main crop in the Chao Phraya River Basin due to delayed rains and consequent decline in water levels in the region's reservoirs.
In April, the OAE estimated the country's total paddy rice output for 2014-15 (January - December 2015) at around 32.6 million tons 27.1 million tons from main crop and 5.5 million tons from secondary crop), down about 11% from around 36.77 million tons (27.09 from main crop and 9.67 million tons from secondary crop) last year.Meanwhile, the government is still holding about15.6 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is planning to auction about 1.39 million tons of rice on July 7.
The government is also considering to sell around 5.89 million tons of deteriorated rice to the industrial sector from this month, the Director-General of the Commerce Ministry’s Department of Foreign Trade is quoted as saying.The Commerce Ministry planning to auction around 1.39 million tons of rice on July 7. It sold about 2.94 million tons of rice in the first seven auctions since it took power, raising about 30.2 billion baht (around $894 million).
USDA estimates Thailand to produce 28.409 million tons of paddy rice (around 18.75 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015), down about 8% from around 31 million tons (around 20.46 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14.
Reduced Monsoon Rains in July May Impact India Rice Yields, Say Experts
Jul 01, 2015
July is considered to be most crucial month for rice farmers but weak monsoons in this month may severely impact India's rice yields especially in rain fed areas, Reuters quoted some experts as saying.Rains, which have been nearly 28% above normal from the start of the monsoon season on June 1 have started weakening since the last weekend especially in the main rice growing areas of central, north-western and southern India and now the surplus has fallen to 16% over normal, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)."If the current dry spell continues for another week, then there will be an adverse impact on yields," the Head of Commodities and Currencies at Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities said. "In some areas, crop will wilt and farmers will be forced to cultivate them again," he added.
"Poor rainfall in July, with cloudy weather, can increase infestation of pest and diseases," the Director of an India-based Agri firm was quoted as saying. "Higher temperatures could also hinder crop growth," he said.Many farmers who breathed easy with the Skymet forecast of a good monsoon because of a phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole (ICD) are now worried that weakening rains would bring them heavy losses as they already invested in seeds and fertilizers.The IMD has been maintaining that the monsoon in India would be 85% below normal due to the El Nino weather pattern.Planting for the main rice crop started off well with above average rains but is currently lagging behind last year due to less rains since June 25. According to data from Agriculture Ministry, the total area planted stood at around at around 2.328 million hectares, 7% below last year's level of around 2.5 million hectares.
Philippines Agriculture Ministry Promotes Use of Brown Rice
Jul 01, 2015
The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) is encouraging increased use of brown rice as it has higher nutritional value compared to the polished white rice as well as to complement with the government's rice sufficiency program, according to local sources.A DA Senior Scientist told local sources that the DA would sign a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) with the National Food Authority (NFA) to start distributing brown rice among the retailers. He noted that the government would start distributing brown rice in Metro Manila and slowly extend to other cities.
Under the agreement, the NFA is expected to procure brown rice from local producers and sell it to local retailers at a lower price. The DA official noted that the NFA could cut down rice imports eventually. He also encouraged farmers to directly sell their brown rice products to restaurants, hotels, other food establishments apart from selling it to the NFA.He advised farmer to increase planting of brown rice varieties, which is rich in vitamins B1, B3, B6, B9, dietary fiber, antioxidants, protein, manganese, phosphorous, and iron.Separately, the DA Secretary told local reporters that the government's continued efforts have helped the country to reach rice sufficiency level of 96% in 2014 from 82% in 2010. He said there is still a need to import rice to maintain stocks and curb price hikes, but the volume is much lower than that imported under the previous government.
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