Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Jul
30, 2015
Rain showers are expected across Southeast China today and tomorrow. Rain showers
are also expected in Northeast China On Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry weather
is expected on Thursday and Friday in East-central China.
In India, rain is expected from
Bihar to Odisha on Thursday. Scattered rains are expected from Rajasthan,
Gujarat, and western Maharashtra to Madhya Pradesh and northern Andhra Pradesh
on Thursday. Showers are expected from Uttarakhand to Northeast Andhra Pradesh
on Friday. Scattered showers are expected across Western Maharashtra to Kerala
on Friday.
Isolated heavy rain is expected across North and North-eastern Thailand today and tomorrow.
Rain is expected across Northern Vietnam on Thursday and Friday. The rest of
Vietnam will only have spotty shower and thunderstorm on Thursday and Friday .
In Pakistan, rain is expected at some
places in Kashmir, Islamabad, upper Punjab during the next two days. Dry
weather is expected elsewhere in the country.
In Bangladesh, light rain is likely to
occur at most places over Khulna, Barisal, Chittagong and Sylhet divisions and
at many places over Dhaka, Rangpur & Rajshahi divisions with moderately
heavy to very heavy falls at places over Khulna, Barisal and Chittagong
divisions and moderately heavy falls at places elsewhere over the country
during the next two days.
In Indonesia, scattered showers are
expected across Sulawesi, Borneo and Northern Sumatra on Thursday and Friday.
Global Rice Quotes
July 30th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 380-390
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 340-350
↓
India 5% broken 385-395
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 355-365
↓
Myanmar 5% broken 400-410
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435
↔
U.S. 4% broken 470-480
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545
↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 350-360
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 325-335
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 315-325
↓
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420
↔
India 25% broken 350-360
↔
U.S. 15% broken 445-455
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 380-390 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 485-495
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 320-320
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 315-325
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360
↔
India 100% broken stxd 305-315
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 325-335 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Rally on Healthy New Crop Sales and Strong Weekly Shipments
Jul
30, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 13
cents per cwt (about $3 per ton higher) at $11.330 per cwt (about $250 per ton)
during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading
mixed this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.6% higher,
wheat is listed about 0.2% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.1%
higher.
U.S. stocks opened slightly lower on Thursday as investors
digested a slew of corporate earnings, U.S. economic data and the Federal
Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. In economic news, the
Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate
of 2.3%, slightly below economists' estimates. The department revised its
first-quarter GDP reading to a 0.6% increase from a 0.2% contraction. U.S.
weekly jobless claims increased by 12,000 week-over-week, but came in below
expectations at 267,000, the Labor Department said.
On Wednesday, the central
bank kept rates unchanged and gave no hint of liftoff coming in the next
meeting. The decision on the rates was unanimous. Policymakers said the economy
is expanding moderately and made no mention of recent volatility around Greece
or China. Gold is currently trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading
about 0.2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.6%
higher at 9:00am Chicago
time.
China Holds $300 Million Loan to
Cambodia Rice Project
Jul
30, 2015
The government of China has put on hold a $300 million loan to a Cambodian rice
project, aimed at developing storage and warehousing facilities in the country,
as the government of Cambodia has not been able to meet the criteria set by the
Chinese authorities, local sources quoted an official associated with the
project.
In December last year, Cambodia's Ministry of Economy and Finance
reportedly sent a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) to the Chinese
government seeking a loan of about $300 million to build and develop rice
warehouses in the country. The government is keen on building about 10 rice
warehouses, which can store a total of 1.2 million tons of paddy/rice, in the
country to ensure uninterrupted supplies to millers and exporters.
The Senior Adviser for the Supreme National Economic Council (SNEC), which
is overseeing the project told local sources that the loan has been put on hold
as Cambodia has not responded to the Chinese requirements on the loan. “There
are some technical problems from our Chinese counterparts. Both parties are
looking at their own benefit, and now we are negotiating,” he was quoted as
saying.
Members of the Cambodian Rice Federation (CRF) have been stressing for the
need for the development of rice storage and warehousing facilities in the
country in order to boost exports.
The CRF has also been urging the government to provide adequate financing
facilities to the millers and exporters to buy rice during the harvest
season.
Earlier, the SNEC Senior Adviser noted that a major quantity of Cambodian
paddy/rice is exported to Vietnam and Thailand through unofficial channels
during the harvest season as the country lacks proper storage facilities. Due
to this, millers and exporters have been facing severe shortages of paddy for
milling during lean months of April and May, and a proper warehousing system is
needed to address this issue.
Cambodia has exported around 283,825 tons of milled rice in the first six
months of 2015, up about 60% from around 177,928 tons exported during the same
period last year, according to data from the Secretariat of One Window Service
for Rice Export Formality.). Cambodia exported around 387,000 tons in
2014.
USDA estimates Cambodia to export 1.1 million tons of rice (including
official and unofficial exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in
2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1 million tons in 2014.
Japan Pushes for Increased Rice
Utilization in Feed Industry, Says USDA Post
Jul
30, 2015
With the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) pushing for
the increase in rice utilization in feed, the use of rice in Japan's total feed
market has increased considerably in MY 2014-15 (October - September), reports
USDA Post.
Rice utilization in Japan's total feed market has increased to around 5% in
first eight months of MY 2014-15 compared to around 3% in the entire MY
2013-14; while corn utilization has remained relatively stable at around 45%
during the period, according to the USDA Post.
The government's expansion of rice utilization in feed rations through
subsidies is expected to result in a slightly lower corn consumption level for
feed in MY 2014-15. This falling trend for corn consumption is expected to
continue in MY 2015-16 also.
The government of Japan maintains a feed price stabilization program that
consists of a combination of a MAFF subsidy and industry fund to help sudden
surges in compound feed prices.
India Average Wholesale Rice
Prices Continue to Decline in July 2015
Jul
30, 2015
India average wholesale rice prices continued to decline for second
consecutive month in July 2015 after continuously increasing for three
consecutive months from March to May. The decline can be attributed to
increasing supplies in the domestic market due to a declining export
demand.
Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India declined to around
Rs.2,646.88 per quintal in July 2015, down about 4% from around Rs.2,658 per
quintal in June 2015, and down about 18% from their year-ago levels of around
Rs.3,216 per quintal.
In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around
$415 per ton (using current exchange rates) in July 2015, down about 1% from
around $419 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in June 2015, and down
about 22.5% from their year-ago levels of around $483 per ton (using historical
exchange rates).
India’s average prices are likely to increase if India’s production is
dampened by a moderate drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern, which is
expected to persist between July and September. Weather bureaus in Australia
and Japan are forecasting an intensifying El Nino weather pattern, which is
already causing dry conditions in South East Asian countries, including
Thailand, North Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines. The government of India
is monitoring the impact of El Nino on monsoon rains in the country. India
received 7% below normal rainfall in the fourth week of July, according to the
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
Planting for India's main/kharif rice crop (June – December), which began
in the month of May and continuing, started off well due to above-average rains
in the beginning of the monsoon season. It has been good enough so far despite
the rainfall declining in some rice-growing regions. As of July 24, the total
area planting to India's 2015-16 kharif rice crop stood at around 18.85 million
hectares, up about 7% from around 17.65 million hectares planted during the
same time last year.
USDA
estimates India's 2015-16 (October - September) production at around 104
million tons, up about 1.5% from an estimated 102.5 million tons in
2014-15. It estimates India's 2015 rice exports at around 10.2 million tons,
slightly up from an estimated 10.15 million tons in 2014
Drought Threatens Indonesia's
Rice Self Sufficiency Plans
Jul
30, 2015
Extending drought conditions across Indonesia are said to be leading to
crop failures in most of the rice growing provinces. The National Disaster
Mitigation Agency (BNPB) declared that about 25,000 hectares of crop fields,
including rice, in the country are experiencing crop failures due to the
drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern, according to local sources.
The Food Crop Cultivation Head of the Central Java Agriculture Agency noted
that about 6,578 hectares of paddy fields in the province have already
experienced crop failure due to drought and another 27,000 hectares are on the
verge of failure. Similarly, authorities in Jambi province also declared that
68 hectares of paddy fields have experienced crop failure. These developments
indicate a fall in the secondary rice crop (June to mid-December) output.
Water crisis that resulted from low rains in most of the provinces,
including West Java, Central Java, South Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara and
Papua, are adding to the farmers' troubles.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency
(BMKG) has predicted that the El Niño effect will extend Indonesia’s dry
season, which normally occurs between April and September, until
November.
These developments are likely to disrupt the government plans of achieving
self-sufficiency in rice over the next four years. The government aimed to
increase 2015 paddy rice production by about 4% to around 73.4 million tons
(around 48.44 million tons, basis milled) in order to be self-sufficient in
rice production and avoid imports.
The President is also targeting a no-rice import policy this year.
Indonesian government has so far not imported any rice in 2015. It imported
425,000 tons in 2014 through the state logistics agency Bulog.
India Plans to Procure 30
Million Tons of Rice in KMS 2015-16
Jul
30, 2015
The government of India is planning to procure around 30 million tons of
rice in the 2015-16 kharif marketing season (October 2015 - September 2016),
according to a statement from the Food Ministry.
The government is planning to procure 8.2 million tons of rice from Punjab,
3.6 million tons from Chhattisgarh, 2.34 million tons from Haryana and 2
million each from Andhra Pradesh and Assam, according to the statement.
State governments have been directed to ensure effective procurement
process by opening adequate purchase centers and manpower. They have also been
asked to prepare storage plan for the new KMS as well as make an action plan to
meet any deficit in storage facilities.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain
procurement and distribution has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as
of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015), down about 1%
from last year, according to data by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food
& Public Distribution. The Indian government is targeting to procure 35.109
million tons of rice during the KMS 2014-15.
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Find Follow-through Buying as Market Breaks Technical
Resistance
Jul
30, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep
delivery settled 23.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) higher at $11.435 per
cwt (about $252 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans
closed about 0.7% higher at $9.5000 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1%
higher at $4.9625 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.5% higher at
$3.8375 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded in a range on
Thursday as investors digested more earnings and second quarter GDP, a day
after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Nasdaq Composite
turned positive in late morning trade, with the S&P 500 attempting gains in
early afternoon trade. The Dow Jones industrial average struggled to hold gains
after trading lower, falling 100 points in the open. In economic news, U.S.
gross domestic product came in at 2.3%, slightly below economists' estimates.
The department revised its first-quarter GDP reading to a 0.6% increase from a
0.2% contraction. U.S. weekly jobless claims increased by 12,000
week-over-week, but came in below expectations at 267,000, the Labor Department
said.
On Wednesday, the central bank kept rates
unchanged and gave no hint of liftoff coming in the next meeting. The decision
on the rates was unanimous. Policymakers said the economy is expanding
moderately and made no mention of recent volatility around Greece or China. The
Dow Jones industrial average traded down 2 points, or 0.01%, at 17,749. The
S&P 500 traded down 0.5 points, or 0.02%, at 2,108, with energy leading
five sectors lower and utilities the greatest advancer. The Nasdaq traded up 17
points, or 0.34%, at 5,128. Gold is trading about 0.5% lower, crude oil is seen
trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.7%
higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 606 contracts traded, up from 437 contracts traded on
Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday
decreased by 66 contracts to 8,631.
Myanmar Rice Exports May Not be
Impacted by Recent Floods, Says MRF Official
Jul
30, 2015
Heavy rains and flooding since mid-July in Myanmar's Sagaing Region, Shan
State and Kachin State have destroyed more than 24,000 hectares of paddy fields,
but the country's exports may not be affected significantly, Myanmar Times
quoted the General Secretary of Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF).
According to a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation,
about 981 hectares of summer paddy fields, about 14,676 hectares of monsoon
paddy fields and about 1,240 hectares of seedling fields have been impacted by
flooding as of July 19, 2015.
However, the MRF General Secretary told reporters that overall yields are
likely to suffer slightly but may not impact exports. He urged the government
to support farmers as per new laws that have been framed to protect
farmers.
A prominent farmer based in Sagaing Region added that farmers have an opportunity
to replant until the beginning of September if they can afford financially.
They need to re-spend on fertilizers and seeds, he said.
However, experts noted that current floods have occurred in the upper part
of Myanmar and not in the lower part, where some fields are ready for
harvest.
The Vice Chairman of the Myanmar Rice Traders Association urged the
government to encourage farmers to purchase crop insurance as most parts of
Bago and Ayeyarwady regions are prone to flooding during this part of
year.
The MRF expects a paddy output of around 14 million tons (around 8.96
million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to
export around 2 million tons of rice this year. Myanmar exported about 1.8
million tons of rice in FY 2014-15.
USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 20 million tons of paddy rice (around
12.8 million tons, milled basis) and export around 2 million tons of rice in MY
2015-16 (January - December 2015).
Philippines Invites Farmers to
Distribute NFA Rice Stocks Under Ifad Program
Jul
30, 2015
The Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) is inviting farmers
organizations (FOs) and farmers associations (FAs) to distribute about 100,000
tons of NFA rice stocks under the Institutionalized Farmers as Distributors
(Ifad) Program, according to local sources.
The government implemented the program on July 16, 2015 and will continue
till October 31, 2015. Under the program, FOs and FAs are required to
distribute 2 million 50 kilogram bags of rice from the 2014 imported rice
stocks.
The NFA Deputy Administrator told local sources that the Ifad program aims
to “empower farmers” by directly involving FOs and FAs in the distribution of
NFA rice as well as help increase their incomes.
Interested and qualified FOs and FAs are required to submit a letter of
intent (LOI) to the NFA provincial manager in their respective areas.
As per the guidelines, 30% of rice stocks will be allocated among all
qualified FOs and FAs across the country, but 60% will be allocated only to
those who had participated under the program earlier. The remaining 10% will be
allocated to all officers of the Philippines Farmers Advisory Board and
Provincial Farmers Action Council.
The NFA fixed the price of 25% brokens at P25 per kilogram (around $0.55),
or P1,250 per bag (around $27.35), while it fixed the price of the 15% brokens
at P30 per kilogram (around $0.66) or P1,500 per bag (around $32.81).
The program initially started in 2002 and ran till 2010. Again it was
started in 2013 upon the request of FOs and FAs across the country.
The NFA Spokesman told reporters that the allocations for Ifad the NFA
buffer stocks are currently sufficient for 25 days and imports from Vietnam and
Thailand have started arriving in the country's ports.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap –
New Sales Help Push Prices Higher
Jul
30, 2015
The U.S. cash market was firmer today with price ideas increasing with the
futures market. Farmers have no set their sights on $11.11 per cwt fob farm
(about $245 per ton) however most buyers have ideas closer to $10.00 per cwt
fob farm (about $220 per ton).
Analysts note that with the recent run up in the futures market most
sellers are willing to wait and see how far the market will run however others
are that once the buying stops there could be a rush of sellers coming to the
market.
Today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week
ending on July 23rd, totaled 8,400 tons, which was 11% lower than
last week and 82% lower than the prior 4-week average.
Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 3,000
tons to Japan, 2,000 tons to unknown destinations, 1,200 tons to Canada,
600 tons to the United Kingdom, and 400 tons to Mexico.
Net sales of 49,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for the following
destinations including; 30,000 tons to Venezuela, 5,900 tons to unknown
destinations, 5,500 tons to El Salvador, and 5,000 tons to South Korea.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 105,900 tons, which was 15% higher than last
week and 60% higher than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations
included: 31,800 tons to Japan, 29,900 tons to Venezuela, 17,800 tons to
South Korea, 12,000 tons to Mexico, and 10,000 tons to Haiti.
South Korea Imports 305,027 Tons
of Brown Rice Under 2015 TRQ as of July 8, 2015, Says USDA Post
Jul
30, 2015
South Korea is required to import a mandatory 408,700 tons of rice from
Most Favored Nation (MFN) countries at 5% duty under the tariff rate quota
(TRQ) regime. The government's state trading arm Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food
Trade Corporation (aT) manages the purchases of all imported rice through
tenders and subsequent auctions of imported table rice.
As of July 8, 2015, aT purchased 305,027 tons of brown rice for processing
purposes (around 274,524, basis milled) or 67% of the entire 2015 TRQ import
commitment. The Korean government is expected to continue purchases of the
remaining 134,176 metric tons (milled) within calendar year 2015, says the
Post. The following table shows the tonnage and percentage of rice
imported from the MFN countries.
The Post forecasts rice production in MY 2015-16 (May - April) at 4 million
tons, unchanged from last year despite a likely decline in planting area by
about 2.1% y/y to 799,000 hectares. The increase is attributed to usage of high
yielding varieties.
The government of Korea has procured around 610,000 tons of rice, or 14.4%
of total 214 crop production, under the Public Food Grain Stockholding Program
(PFSP) as of May 2015.
The Post forecasts Korea MY 2015-16 consumption at around 4.355 million
tons, down about 2% from an estimated 4.5 million tons in MY 2014-15.
Vietnam, Pakistan Rice Sellers
Lower Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Jul
30, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5
per ton to around $340-$350 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their
quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to
around$355-$365 per ton and $315-$325 per ton respectively today. Other Asia
rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about $30 per
ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about
$5 per ton from yesterday.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton
premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton.
India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India
parboiled rice is indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton
discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was last shown at around $415 - $425 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton,
about $5 per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $315
- $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per
ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around
$285 - $295 per ton.
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