Central Bank's Forex Restriction
Policy May Push Up Rice Prices in Nigeria, Say Analysts
Jul
08, 2015
The Central Bank of Nigeria's policy
to restrict foreign exchange to rice importers is likely to have negative
repercussions on rice prices in the short-run, according to local sources.
They noted that though the Central
Bank defended its move saying the denial of foreign exchange to importers would
encourage local production, create jobs and reduce pressure on the country's
depleting forex reserves, the action would lead to increase in rice prices in
the short-run as import substitution is not possible immediately. Moreover,
importing rice in this situation may prove costly and the effect is to be borne
by the consumers, said an expert.
However, they agreed that the policy would enhance local rice production in
the country as well as improve living standards of farmers in the long run.
Increased prices would force consumers to seek more locally produced rice, which
in turn would encourage farmers to grow more.
They also noted that importers would experience difficulties in adjusting
to the policy and a parallel market for dollars may develop forcing importers
to pay more for dollars. These actions would lead to a spike in inflation, they
said.
Currently, naira is trading at about N230 per dollar in the black market,
about 16% above the official trading rate of N197 per dollar.
Nigeria has been a net importer of rice and imports over 50% of its annual
rice consumption needs. USDA estimates the country to produce 2.83 million tons
of milled rice in the MY 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2014) and import
about 4 million tons. The country's consumption needs during the year are
estimated at around 6.4 million tons.
The UN's FAO estimated Nigeria's rice imports to decline by about 3.3% to
around 2.9 million tons in 2015.
Thailand, India, Pakistan Rice
Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Vietnam Rice Quotes Unchanged
Jul
08, 2015
Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25%
broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $380-$390 per ton and $355-$365
per ton respectively today. India rice sellers increased their quotes for 100%
broken rice and parboiled rice by about $15 per ton and $5 per ton to around
$295-$305 per ton and $370-$380 per ton, respectively. Pakistan rice sellers
increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around
$335-$345 per ton. Vietnam rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged
today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, up about $5
per ton from yesterday and about $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown
at around $345 - $355 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390
per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 -
$385 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, up about $5 per
ton from yesterday and about $30 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at
around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360,
about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $335 - $345per
ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India
parboiled rice is indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, up about a $5 per ton
from yesterday and about a $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton,
on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, up about $15
per ton from yesterday and about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken
sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
EU Average Milled Rice Prices
Show Slight Movements in May 2015
Jul
08, 2015
Average monthly milled rice prices in all 28 countries of the European
Union (EU) showed some slight movements in the beginning of May 2015, according
to Community Price Dashboard issued by EU on July 1, 2015.
Average monthly Japonica milled rice varieties increased about 1.2% to
around 860 euros (about $946) per ton from previous month, and increased about
57.8% from their year ago levels.
Average monthly Indica milled rice varieties declined about 0.8% to around
635 euros per ton (around $698 per ton) from the previous month, but increased
about 32.3% from their year ago levels.
The Community price dashboard provides a monthly summary of commodity price
data for the most representative agricultural inputs, agricultural products and
consumer food prices, at EU and world level.
Rice data refer to Japonica Italy and Indica Italy, according to DG
Agriculture and Rural Development, data based on EU Member States
communications.
Global
Rice Quotes
July 8th, 2015
Long grain
white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 390-400 ↑
Vietnam 5% broken 345-355 ↔
India 5% broken 380-390 ↔
Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 450-460 ↔
Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔
Long grain
white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 355-365 ↑
Vietnam 25% broken 325-335 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↑
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔
India 25% broken 350-360 ↔
U.S. 15% broken 440-450 ↔
Long grain
parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 385-395 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 370-380 ↑
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain
fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 825-835 ↔
Vietnam Jasmine 490-500 ↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 315-325 ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↑
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 350-360 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel,
oryza.com
Indigenous Rice Varieties
Regaining Popularity in India
Jul
08, 2015
Indian rice farmers, especially in the state of West Bengal, have been
preferring planting old, traditional indigenous rice varieties instead of
high-yielding rice varieties, which were introduced as part of the green
revolution in 1960s and 70s, due to their aromatic taste, low production costs
and resilience to climate change, according to local sources.
Farmers have been trying to popularize the traditional/folk varieties
before they disappear forever. They say though the yield from the traditional
varieties in low, their production cost is also low and they fetch a higher
price in the market. Particularly, they require less amount of fertilizer, says
Assistant Director of Agriculture in Nadia district.
"More and more consumers are asking for the folk varieties these days
as the taste is better. Farmers are also showing lot of interest in these
varieties, which they had once forgotten," the Joint Director of
Agriculture at the Chinsurah rice research station was quoted.
Farmers in West Bengal's rice growing areas of Burdwan, South and North 24
Parganas, Midnapore, Nadia and Howrah have reportedly given up high-yielding
modern rice varieties and are using traditional varieties for the last couple
of years. The aromatic rice variety 'Gobindobhog' has become more popular among
the farmers.
The Agriculture Training Center in Nadia district has nearly 300
traditional varieties , of which 51 are aromatic.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Add to Recent Gains as Market Breaches $11.000 per cwt
Level; Corn and Beans Turn Higher while Wheat Continues to Lag
Jul
08, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 10.5 cents per cwt (about
$2 per ton) higher at $11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton). The other grains
closed mostly higher today; Soybeans closed about 0.3% higher at $9.8825 per
bushel; wheat finished about 1.3% lower at $5.7750 per bushel, and corn
finished the day about 0.3% higher at $4.2450 per bushel.
Trading on the floor of the New York
Stock Exchange was suspended in late-morning trade on Wednesday. U.S. stocks
held lower, plunging more than 1% as continued concerns about Greece and the extended
selloff in the Chinese market weighed on investor sentiment. Other exchanges,
however, continued trading normally. The NYSE later said that all open orders
amid the halt will be cancelled. U.S. officials also said there were no
indications of a cyberattack. In China, the Shanghai Composite closed nearly 6
percent lower despite supportive government measures. The index has fallen more
than 30% from its mid-June peak amid frequent bouts of extreme volatility.
Analysts say the turbulence is
starting to unnerve regional investors. European stocks traded higher on
Thursday amid hopes of a Greece deal. However, the indices are more than 2%
lower for the week so far. The Greek government has until Friday morning to
present detailed reform proposals to allow a bailout deal by a Sunday summit.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras addressed the European Parliament on
Wednesday, lambasting Europe's advocacy of austerity and the efficacy of
Greece's bailout programs since 2010, but promised a detailed, "concrete"
deal would be presented in the next two to three days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
traded down 187 points, or 1.05%, at 17,589. The S&P 500 traded down 23
points, or 1.11%, at 2,058, with materials leading all 10 sectors lower. The
Nasdaq traded down 68 points, or 1.38%, at 4,928. Gold is trading about 0.9%
higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen
trading at about 0.5% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Tuesday, there were 1,033 contracts traded, down from 2,154 contracts
traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on
Tuesday decreased by 218 contracts to 9,302.
FAO Estimates 2015 Global Milled
Rice Trade to Decline Slightly Due to Lower Import Demand
Jul
08, 2015
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates 2015 global rice trade to decline about 2% to
around 42 million tons from around 42.8 million tons in 2014 due to lower
demand from most of the rice importing countries reflecting generally good crops
this year.
The decline can also be attributed to imposition of new protective measures
by some governments, amid concerns of cheap imports undermining local
production. In Asia, rice imports are expected to decline in Bangladesh,
Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Timor Leste. Imports in African countries are also
expected to fall, depressed by currency depreciations and large carryovers
from large imports in 2014. The FAO expects rice imports to increase in Latin
America, Europe, North America and Australia.
On the exports side, the FAO estimates supplies from India, Vietnam,
Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Uruguay to decline due to stiff competition
and uncompetitive prices. On the other hand, it projects exports by Cambodia,
China (Mainland), Ecuador, the European Union, Guyana, Myanmar, Pakistan,
Paraguay, the Russian Federation and the U.S. to increase. The FAO expects
Thailand's exports to remain at last year's level of 10.9 million tons despite
production falls as the auctioning of rice from stockpiles is expected to ease
the supply tightness.
The FAO estimates 2015-16 global paddy production to increase about 0.9% to around 749.1 million tons
(around 499.3 million tons, basis milled) from around 741.8 million tons
(around 497 million tons, basis milled). Asia paddy production is estimated at
678 million tons, up about 1.1% from last year. Production increases are
expected in Indonesia, China, Iran, Malaysia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka,
Thailand, Timor Leste and Turkey. However, it expects declines in India, Bangladesh,
the Chinese Province of Taiwan, North Korea, South Korea, Nepal, Pakistan, the
Philippines and Viet Nam, amid a combination of unfavourable weather and/or
unattractive prices. African output is forecast at 28.7
million tons, up about 1% from last year.
Production increases are likely in west African countries and Madagascar.
Production declines are anticipated in Egypt and Nigeria. In Latin America and the Caribbean, production is estimated at
around 28.4 million tons, up about 2.4% from last year. Production is expected
to increase in Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay and Peru, and decline in Central
America and the Caribbean. It expects production to decline in the U.S. by 6% due to less attractive prices
and a four year-long drought in California. Production is also expected to
increase in the EU
and the Russian Federation but decline in Australia by 12%.
The UN agency estimates 2015-16 global rice utilization at around 507.2 million
tons (basis, milled), up about 6.9 million tons from last year on expectations
of a greater use of rice for feed and industrial processing. It expects about
419.6 million tons to be consumed as food, an increase of about 5.8 million
tons from last year. It estimates global per-capita food use at around 57.4
kilograms.
The FAO estimates global rice stocks at 169.4 million tons, down about 4.4% from last year
due to offloading of inventories in the five major exporting countries. Stock
declines are expected in India, Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam and
the U.S.
The world
stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.8%, down from last year's 34.9%.
Vietnam Rice Exports Decline
Sharply in May 2015
Jul
08, 2015
Vietnam's rice exports have declined sharply in May 2015 reportedly due to
a decline in export demand and stiff competition from India and Thailand. While
share of Vietnam's rice exports to Asian, American and Australian destinations
declined in May 2015, its share of exports to Africa and Europe increased
during the month.
Vietnam has exported around 526,133 tons of rice in May 2015, down about
21% from around 668,177 tons exported in April 2015, and down about 10% from
around 585,346 tons exported in May 2014.
Asia accounted for around 375,569 tons (about 71% of total rice exports by
Vietnam in May 2015) in May 2015. Month-on-month, Vietnam's rice exports to Asian
destinations declined about 28% from around 520,386 tons exported in April
2015. Year-on-year, they declined about 24.5% from around 497,526 tons exported
in May 2014.
Vietnam exported around 84,371 tons of rice to Africa (about 16% of total
May 2015 exports) in May 2015, up about 17% from around 71,993 tons exported in
April 2015, and over two times from around 35,008 tons exported in May 2014,
according to USDA.
Vietnam exported around 58,239 tons of rice to American destinations (about
11% of May 2015 exports), down about 14% from around 67,757 tons exported in
April 2015, and up about 35.5% from around 42,961 tons exported in May 2014.
Vietnam's exports to Australia (about 0.6% of May 2015 exports) declined
about 28% to around 3,391 tons in May 2015 from around 4,729 tons exported in
April 2015 and increased about 4.3 times from around 797 tons exported in May
2014.
Vietnam's exports to Europe and CIS countries (about 0.8% of total May 2015
exports) accounted for around 4,563 tons in May 2015, up about 38% from around
3,312 tons exported in April 2015 and down about 50% from around 9,054 tons
exported in May 2014.
In terms of grade, 5% broken rice exports accounted for around 174,132 tons
(or, about 33% of total May 2015 exports); Jasmine rice exports accounted for
around 114,903 tons (or, about 22% of total May 2015 exports); 15% broken rice
exports accounted for around 73,940 tons (or, about 14% of total exports in May
2015); 25% broken rice exports accounted for around 3,265 tons (or, about 0.6% of
total exports in May 2015); glutinous rice exports accounted for around 69,611
tons (or, about 13% of total May 2015 exports); and 10%, 100% and other
varieties accounted for around 90,282 tons (or, about 17% of total exports in
May 2015).
South Korea Buys 44,104 Tons of
Non-Glutinous Brown Rice in Tender
Jul
08, 2015
South Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC)
has purchased 44,104 tons of non-glutinous brown rice of Chinese, U.S. and Thai
origins for delivery between October and December, according to a statement on
its website.KAFTC originally sought to purchase about 59,104
tons of non-glutinous rice via six tenders for which the bidding took place
on July 3, 2015.It announced results for 15,000
tons of non-glutinous brown rice via one tender on the same day. The
results for the remaining 44,104 tons of non-glutinous brown rice are as
follows:
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Hold Steady Overnight While Most Commodities Soften on
Concerns over China and Greece
Jul
08, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen paused 1.5
cents per cwt (about $0.33 per ton) higher at $10.910 per cwt (about $241 per
ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading
lower this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.2% lower, wheat
is listed about 1.4% lower and corn is currently noted unchanged.
U.S. stock index futures indicated a
sharply lower open on Wednesday as
worries over China's relentless selloff and Greece's debt crisis weighed on
investor sentiment. Dow Futures trimmed losses, trading about 140 points lower
amid news that Greece was closer to submitting concrete proposals. Earlier,
futures were as much as 200 points lower, following another painful trading
session in China which saw stocks close down nearly 6%, following an 8% slide
earlier in the session. The Shanghai Composite has fallen more than 30% from
its mid-June peak amid frequent bouts of extreme volatility and analysts say
the turbulence is starting to unnerve regional investors.
Commodities were hit on Tuesday on mounting China
fears and remained under pressure in Wednesday trade. The Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) minutes will also be in focus, with traders scanning the Federal
Reserve's June meeting report for hints on interest rate rise timing. Greek-
and Chinese-related developments should continue to dominate market focus, but
the minutes of that FOMC meeting Wednesday should
get the market's attention when released at 2 p.m. ET. Gold is currently trading about 0.5% higher, crude
oil is seen trading about 0.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently
trading about 0.4% lower at 8:15amChicago
time.
Drought-Inducing El Nino Won't
Affect Cambodia Rice Production, Say Officials
Jul
08, 2015
Cambodia is less likely to be affected by the El Nino
weather pattern and the country is expected to receive rainfall this week, the
local sources quoted the spokesman of the Ministry of Water Resource and
Meteorology.The Ministry spokesman told reporters that a dry spell associated
with the El Nino weather pattern, which is expected to lower rice output in
Thailand, wouldn't have same impact on Cambodia. “The rainfall is expected to
be even better than last year," he said. The official also noted that dry
spell, which usually occurs in the month of July every year is not expected to
occur this year and the country will receive heavy rainfall from this week
until September encouraging the rice planting operations.
The Director of the Rice Department under the Ministry of Agriculture noted
that planting has already been started in nearly 30% of over 2 million hectares
of rice area. “The ministry is pushing to increase rice cultivation area this
year, and with enough rainfalls, we hope to receive better amount of rice
output from last year,” he said.
USDA estimates Cambodia MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015) paddy
rice production at around 7.344 million tons (around 4.7 million tons, milled
basis), slightly down from around 7.383 million tons (around 4.725 million
tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Cambodia to export around 1.1
million tons of rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1 million tons in
2014.
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