China to Slow Imports of Vietnam Rice
Aug 12, 2015
China, one
of the major destination for Vietnamese rice for the last few years, has cut
down on rice imports from Vietnam since the beginning of this year. The Chinese
actions have also impacted Vietnam's rice exports severely during the first
half of this year.
Increasing
demand for imported rice in China has been a boon to Vietnamese exporters over
the last few years. China imports rice despite being the world's top rice
producer with over 140 million tons annually. A few internal factors are said
to have led to higher imports. One, fall in proportion of rice in the country's
food basket has led to a decline in paddy rice acreage significantly; two,
increasing prices of domestic rice prices; and three, Chinese preference to
imported rice have contributed to higher imports in the recent years.
Experts say
China normally imports higher volume when prices are low. But this year, low
prices especially in Vietnam could not attract Chinese demand. However, both
UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and USDA are predicting China to
import more rice from Vietnam in the second half of 2015 due to declining rice
prices as well as the impact of drought-inducing El Nino pattern on Chinese
production.
However,
experts have expressed concern that since China is holding huge amount of stocks
in its inventory and is unable to sell them to local traders, the Chinese
government may ask traders to buy rice from the government stocks in exchange
for import quotas.
In that
case, they say Vietnam's rice exports may be impacted severely. The Vietnam
Food Association (VFA) has last month forecasted Vietnam to export around 5.91
million tons of rice in 2015, down about 6.5% from an earlier estimated 6.32
million tons, Reuters quoted a report from the VFA.
Meanwhile, a
devaluation of the renminbi (yuan) is expected to make rice and other
imports more expensive. Experts say China has acted proactively by
devaluing its currency on concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may hike
interest rates, a move that could strengthen the U.S. dollar while putting
upward pressure on the renminbi as it is linked to the dollar.
In this
situation, China may not be in a position to take advantage of the low rice
export prices. Vietnam 5% broken rice is currently quoted at around $345
per ton compared to Thai 5% rice at around $370 per ton, India 5% rice at
around $370 per ton and Pakistan 5% rice at around $345 per ton.
On the other
hand, following the Chinese yuan devaluation, Vietnam has doubled its trading
band for interbank dollar/dong transactions letting dong to depreciate freely.
These moves together with the lowering of the floor price of 25% broken rice
may lead to further declining of the Vietnam rice export prices, say
experts.
Floods May Lower Myanmar's Rice Exports in 2015, Says FAO
Aug 12, 2015
The UN's
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts the on going floods in
Myanmar are likely to impact the volume of rice exports in 2015. The FAO had
earlier estimated Myanmar to export around 810,000 tons of rice in 2015. But in
the light of floods affecting vast areas of paddy fields, the UN agency says
Myanmar's rice exports may be below the earlier estimated figure.
The 2015
main (wet) season rice is currently at the vegetative to early reproductive
growth stage. Severe floods in the northern and western Myanmar are said to
have damaged around 210,000 hectares of standing paddy crop. Prior to floods,
the FAO forecasted the country's aggregate paddy production, including the on
going 2015 main and the forthcoming 2015/16 secondary season, at around 29.2
million tons. However, the actual may be below this figure, says the FAO.
Wholesale
prices of the most commonly used rice variety Emata declined in July with the
arrival of 2014-15 second season harvest but remained above their year-ago
levels.
Conab Slightly Lowers Brazil 2014-15 Production Estimates
Due to Likely Fall in Acreage
Aug 12, 2015
Brazil’s
National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15
paddy rice production at around 12.432 million tons (around 8.45 million tons,
basis milled), up about 2.6% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24
million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly down from its July
forecast of around 12.499 million tons.
Conab has
estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.284 million hectares,
down about 3.75% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14, and slightly
down from its July forecast of around 2.292 million hectares.
Most of the
decline in acreage is expected in the North/Northeast region. Rice acreage in
the North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 739,200 hectares, down 8.5%
from around 808,400 hectares in 2013-14. On the other hand, paddy rice acreage
in the key rice growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.545
million hectares in 2014-15, down about 1% from around 1.565 million hectares
in 2013-14.
Average rice
yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.45 tons per hectare, up
about 6.6% from around 5.11 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year, and
slightly up from its July forecast of around 5.43 tons per hectare.
USDA
estimates Brazil MY 2015-16 (April – March) paddy rice production at around
11.765 million tons (around 8 million tons, basis milled), down about 6% from
an estimated 12.5 million tons (around 8.5 million tons, basis milled) in MY
2014-15. It estimates Brazil’s 2015-16 paddy rice acreage to decline slightly
to around 2.3 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export around one
million tons of rice and import around 550,000 tons of rice in 2015.
Global Rice
Quotes
August 13th,
2015
Long grain
white rice - high quality
Thailand
100% B grade 375-385 ↔
Vietnam 5%
broken 340-350 ↔
India 5%
broken 380-390 ↔
Pakistan 5%
broken 340-350 ↔
Myanmar 5%
broken 405-415 ↔
Cambodia 5%
broken 425-435 ↔
U.S. 4%
broken 485-495 ↔
Uruguay 5%
broken 535-545 ↔
Argentina 5%
broken 530-540 ↔
Long grain
white rice - low quality
Thailand 25%
broken 350-360 ↔
Vietnam 25%
broken 325-335 ↔
Pakistan 25%
broken 310-320 ↔
Cambodia 25%
broken 410-420 ↔
India 25%
broken 345-355 ↔
U.S. 15%
broken 460-470 ↔
Long grain
parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↓
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 370-380 ↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 570-580 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain
fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 850-860 ↓
Vietnam
Jasmine 485-495 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 835-845 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1
Super 320-320 ↔
Vietnam 100%
broken 310-320 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔
Cambodia A1
Super 350-360 ↔
India 100%
broken stxd 305-315 ↔
Egypt medium
grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet
food 325-335 ↔
Brazil half
grain NQ ↔
All prices
USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
India Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Today;
Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Aug 12, 2015
India rice
sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and parboiled rice by about $5
per ton each to around $380-$390 per ton and $370-$380 per ton, respectively,
today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged
today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5%
rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $25 per ton
premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India 5% rice
is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, down about $5 per ton from
yesterday and about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around
$340 - $350 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25%
rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated
at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand
parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice
is indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday
and about $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at
around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand
broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10
per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320
per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, about
$25 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 -
$290 per ton.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures
Dragged Lower by Huge Losses in US Grains as USDA Surprises Market with Bearish
S&D Report
Aug 12, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 8 cent per cwt (about $2 per ton)
lower at $11.710 per cwt (about $258 per ton). The other fell tumbled today as
the USDA surprised the market with what has been interpreted as a very bearish
S&D report; Soybeans closed about 6.3% lower at $9.1000 per bushel; wheat
finished about 2.9% lower at $4.9725 per bushel, and corn finished the day
about 5% lower at $3.6800 per bushel.
U.S. stocks
fell about 1% on Wednesday as a second day of decline in the yuan against the
dollar increased concerns about global growth. The major averages trimmed
losses in midday trade as oil recovered slightly to boost the energy sector 1%
and Apple turned higher to gain more than 1%.The People's Bank of China set the
yuan fixing at 6.3306 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, 1.6% weaker than
the previous day's level. The move signaled Beijing's new commitment to set the
daily fixings according to the previous day's closing spot prices and
market-moves of other major currencies.
The yuan
extended losses, dipping to 6.42 per dollar, its weakest level in four years,
fueling expectations of more sustained weakness and a feared "currency
war"—where countries artificially weaken their currencies to gain a
competitive advantage. U.S. job openings totaled 5.2 million in June, versus
5.3 million expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 138 points,
or 0.80%, at 17,263. The S&P 500 traded down 15 points, or 0.74%, at 2,068,
with financials leading eight sectors lower and energy and utilities leading advancers.
The Nasdaq traded down 44 points, or 0.89%, at 4,992. Gold is trading about
1.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 0.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar
is seen trading about 1.1% lower about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Tuesday,
there were 6,239 contracts traded, up from 1,554 contracts traded on Monday.
Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by
99 contracts to 10,094.
India Rice Stocks in Central Pool Stand at 18.6 Million
Tons as of August 1, 2015; Down 24% from Last Year
Aug 12, 2015
India’s rice
stocks in the central pool as of August 1, 2015 stood at around 18.6 million
tons (including a milled equivalent of about 5.021 million tons of paddy), down
about 24% from around 24.56 million tons recorded during the same period last
year, according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI).
Month-over-month,
India's rice stocks in the central pool are down about 13% from around 21.5
million tons recorded on July 1, 2015. However, current rice stocks are about
61% more than the required buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 11.54
million tons for this time of the year, according to the FCI.
Total food
grain stocks (including rice and wheat) in the central pool stand at around
55.523 million tons as of August 1, 2015, down about 13% from last year's stock
of around 63.639 million tons and down about 8% from last month's stock of
around 60.323 million tons. Wheat stocks stand at around 36.778 million tons,
down about 3.5% from last year's stock of around 38.108 million tons and down
about 5% from last month's stock of around 38.68 million tons.
The
government of India had revised the buffer norms for food grains, including
rice, in the Central Pool in January this year. According to the new norms,
buffer stocks for food grains to be maintained with the FCI at this part of the
year is 41.12 million tons.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Little
Changed as Traders Make Last Minute Adjustments to Positions Ahead of USDA
S&D Report
Aug 12, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 1 cent per cwt
(about $0.22 per ton) higher at $11.800 per cwt (about $260 per ton) during
early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed
this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.3% lower, wheat is
listed about 0.7% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.2% higher.
U.S. stock
index futures indicated another sharply lower open on Wednesday, with Dow futures down briefly more than 150
points after China moved to devalue its currency for a second day in a row. The
People's Bank of China set the yuan fixing at 6.3306 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, 1.6% weaker than
the previous day's level. The move signaled Beijing's new commitment to set the
daily fixings according to the previous day's closing spot prices and
market-moves of other major currencies. The yuan extended losses, dipping to
6.42 per dollar, its weakest level in four years, fueling expectations of more
sustained weakness and a feared "currency war" – where countries
artificially weaken their currencies to gain a competitive advantage. Traders on Wednesday may be busier
watching market signals than the few earnings and data on the calendar.
On Tuesday,
a negative technical sign appeared in the chart of the Dow, after its 50-day
moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average, a bearish sign known
as the "death cross". European equities slumped after a yuan-related
selloff in Asian stocks weighed on investor sentiment, with auto stocks coming
under significant pressure. Some key data releases were also expected on Wednesday, with June JOLTS
data due at 10.00 a.m. ET,
followed by the July Federal Budget statement at 2.00 p.m. Gold is currently trading about 0.7% higher,
crude oil is seen trading about 0.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar is
currently trading about 0.9% lower at 8:45am Chicago time.
Philippines 2015 Paddy Rice Output May Fall Below Target
Due to Drought, Says PSA
Aug 12, 2015
The
Philippine Statistics Agency (PSA) has estimated the country's 2015 paddy
output at around 18.86 million tons, about 6% below the targeted 20.08 million
tons and slightly down from last year's output of 18.97 million tons, according
to Reuters.
The
country's first half harvest was impacted by the persisting dry conditions
induced by an El Nino weather phenomenon. The Philippines paddy output in the
first half of 2015 was recorded at around 8.3 million tons, down about 1% from
last year's 8.39 million tons and down about 2.4% from the targeted 8.5 million
tons
The local
weather bureau has warned of an intensifying El Nino in the coming months
significantly affecting paddy output in central, southern and northern
provinces. The PSA forecasts rice output in the second half of 2015 to drop
about 0.5% to around 10.54 million tons.
The
development implies that the government may be prompted to import more rice in
the year. The National Food Authority (NFA) has already imported 750,000 tons
of rice (200,000 tons from Thailand and 550,000 tons from Vietnam) under
government-to-government deals to ensure adequate stocks in the lean season
(June – September). It has also allowed the private traders to import 805,200
tons of rice under the WTO minimum access volume (MAV) rule. The NFA is still
authorized to import another 250,000 tons in case of adverse weather
conditions.
It imported
more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports
and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish rice stocks and
control price hikes.
Pakistan Rice Growers Urge Government to Procure Paddy at
a Fixed Price
Aug 12, 2015
Pakistan
rice growers are urging the government to fix the purchase price for paddy and
procure paddy from farmers in order to help them come out of their financial
problems, according to local sources.
Addressing a
convention of paddy growers, the President of a Pakistan rice growers
association noted that paddy growers in some rice growing regions are facing
severe financial troubles as there are no buyers for their paddy. He noted that
rice stocks worth $6 billion have not been exported and due to that millers and
traders are not buying paddy from farmers this year.
He therefore
noted that the government should purchase paddy from farmers through the
Pakistan Agricultural Storage & Services Corporation Limited (PASCO) and
the Pakistan Trading Corporation (PTC) to give a financial boost the them.
The official
also urged the government to make arrangements for exporting the existing
stocks on an emergency basis to protect growers and exporters from becoming
bankrupt.
Other
speakers in the convention also urged the government to modify its policies
regarding paddy procurement, pricing and exports to protect the rice sector,
which can earn billions of foreign exchange to the country.
Pakistan
exported around 3.93 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (July-June), up about
6% from around 3.72 million tons exported in FY 2013-14, according to
preliminary data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
Philippines Rice Stocks Decline for Second Consecutive
Month in July 2015
Aug 12, 2015
Philippines
rice stocks have declined for second consecutive month in July 2015, after
increasing in April and May, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics
(BAS).
Total rice
stocks in the Philippines as of July 1, 2015 stood at around 2.57 million tons,
down about 15% from around 3.02 million tons recorded in June 2015, and up
about 27% from around 2.03 million tons recorded during the same period last
year.
According to
the BAS, household stocks (which account for about 37.1% of total rice stocks
in the country) stood at around 950,000 tons as of July 1, 2015, up about 8%
from year-ago levels of around 880,000 tons. Commercial warehouse rice stocks
(which account for about 32.7% of total stocks) have reached around 840,000
tons as of July 1, 2015, up about 22% from their year-ago levels of around
690,000 tons. The rice stocks with the National Food Authority (NFA) (which account
for 30.2% of total stocks) stood at around 770,000 tons, up about 67% from
around 460,000 tons recorded in June 2014.
Month-on-month,
household rice stocks are down about 18%, commercial warehouse rice stocks are
down about 24% and NFA rice stocks - in which about 91% are imported rice - are
up about 2.6%, according to the BAS.
The BAS says
that the Philippines' rice stocks as of July 1, 2015 are enough to last for 76
days (household stocks are enough for 28 days, commercial warehouses stocks are
enough for 25 days and stocks with NFA are enough for 23 days).
Download/View
On-Line the above News in pdf for
mat,just
click the following link
No comments:
Post a Comment