USDA Post Forecasts India MY
2014-15 Rice Exports to Reach Record 11.7 Million Tons Due to Stable Prices,
Strong Export Demand
Aug 03, 2015
USDA Post forecasts India's MY 2014-15 (October - September) 11.7 million tons,
up about 15% from the previous year and about 15% from USDA's official
estimates of around 10.2 million tons.
The Post reportedly based its forecasts on the continued higher than
anticipated exports in the second half of the marketing year. It says stable
domestic prices coupled with continued strong demand for export demand have
fueled Indian rice exports since the beginning of the marketing year.
According to the available preliminary data, India exported around 9 million
tons of rice as of June 30, 2015, about 1.6 million tons higher compared to
rice exported during the same period last year. Middle East, Africa, Bangladesh
and Sri Lanka accounted for most of the exports during the 9-month period.
However, it anticipates exports in MY 2015-16 to decline to around 10 million
tons due to anticipated tighter domestic supplies.
Above average rains have been supporting the planting process of the India
main rice crop. According to the government data, Total area planting to
India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at around 22.8
million hectares as of July 31, 2015, up about 6% from around 21.5 million
hectares planted during the same time last year.
Planting of long-grain Basmati rice in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar
Pradesh, as well as rice in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will continue
until the end of August or early September. The Post expects basmati area to
decline this year due to relatively weak prices last year.
Assuming normal rainfall levels during August, Post continues to forecast
MY 2015-16 production at 104 million tons from an acreage of 44 million
hectares. However, deficient rains in August and September may lower the
current forecast, while sufficient and well distributed rains during the next
two months may improve the production prospects, says the Post.
The government of India procures around 31.6 million tons of rice in KMS
2014-15 (October - September) compared to around 31.3 million tons last year.
The Post expects Indian government to procure around 32 million tons of rice
during the marketing year against a target of around 35.109 million tons.
The Post reports that domestic prices have eased since June 2015 due to
sufficient supplies from rabi (winter planted) rice harvest and weak domestic
demand. Satisfactory planting of MY 2015-16 rice crop is likely to keep prices
steady in the next couple of months according to the Post. However, price
movement during MY 2015-16 will depend on the harvest prospects of the upcoming
crop and international price movement, says the Post.
USDA Post Forecasts Australia MY
2015-16 Rice Exports to Decline Sharply Due to Low Production
Aug 03, 2015
USDA Post estimates Australia MY 2015-16 (March - February) rice exports to
decline about 25% to around 300,000 tons from around 400,000 tons last year due
to an expected decline in production following water shortages. Normally, in a
non-drought year, Australia exports nearly 80% of the nation's rice output.
However, the Post estimates MY 2015-16 imports to remain stable at 150,000
tons.
Australia mostly imports fragrant rice varieties such as basmati rice
and Jasmine rice from South Asia and Southeast Asia. The following table
shows the details of imports of rice into Australia:
The Post forecasts Australia MY 2015-16 production to decline about 4% y/y
to around 500,000 tons due to water constraints. However, the Post's forecasts
are above USDA official forecasts at 425,000 tons. It expects harvested area in
New South Wales (NSW) to remain stable while that in Queensland is expected to
increase.
Though the Bureau of Meteorology expects average summer rainfall, actual
access to water
entitlements will not be apparent until mid-October during the rice planting season. Last year, rice growers could access only 40% of their entitlement because of demand from other quota holders with more assured access.
entitlements will not be apparent until mid-October during the rice planting season. Last year, rice growers could access only 40% of their entitlement because of demand from other quota holders with more assured access.
Australia mostly grows medium gain rice along with some short grain
Japonica varieties, and imports long grain varieties. The Australian rice
market is supplied with both domestic production of medium grain rice and with
imports of all types if rice, mainly from Thailand, India and Pakistan.
According to the Post, demand for rice in Australia is comparatively mature and
stable.
The Australian rice market is highly regulated and rice can be grown on
approved soils such as heavy, clay soil that minimizes seepage into water
tables, and only one-third of each farm can be planted with rice to better
allocate available water.
Global Rice Quotes
August
4th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand
100% B grade 375-385 ↔
Vietnam
5% broken 335-345 ↔
India
5% broken 385-395 ↔
Pakistan
5% broken 345-355 ↔
Myanmar
5% broken 400-410 ↔
Cambodia
5% broken 425-435 ↔
U.S.
4% broken 470-480 ↔
Uruguay
5% broken 535-545 ↔
Argentina
5% broken 530-540 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand
25% broken 350-360 ↔
Vietnam
25% broken 325-335 ↔
Pakistan
25% broken 315-325 ↔
Cambodia
25% broken 410-420 ↔
India
25% broken 350-360 ↔
U.S.
15% broken 445-455 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 375-385 ↔
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385
↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 860-870 ↔
Vietnam
Jasmine 485-495 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 835-845 ↔
Brokens
Thailand
A1 Super 320-320 ↔
Vietnam
100% broken 310-320 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔
Cambodia
A1 Super 350-360 ↔
India
100% broken stxd 305-315 ↔
U.S.
pet food 325-335 ↔
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All
prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Myanmar Plans to Temporarily
Suspend Rice Exports to Stabilize Prices During Floods
Aug 03, 2015
Myanmar rice exporters have decided to suspend rice
exports until September 15, 2015, as part of efforts to avoid price hikes
during floods, Bangkok Post quoted the Vice-Chairman of the Myanmar Rice
Federation (MRF).
The MRF official noted that the exports would be suspended until rice from
the ongoing crop is harvested at the end of the rainy season in September.
"This will help stabilize the rice price as rice is the primary food for
Myanmar people, and the price always rises in such time of troubles," he
was quoted as saying.
According to local sources, rice prices have increased sharply in some
flooded area such as Chin and Rakhine and the MRF and other rice trader groups
are planning to send rice to flood-affected areas later this week.
Last week, the Secretary-General of the MRF noted that exports are unlikely
to be affected by floods. However, the temporary suspension of exports is
understood to be useful to ensure food security in the country as well as to
curb price hikes.
According to the UN's FAO, average wholesale rice prices in Myanmar
have reversed in July 2015 after increasing for past seven months. The increase
was attributed to increased exports and falling stocks in the country. However,
the government clarified that stocks in the country were adequate to meet the
domestic demand.
The MRF expects a paddy output of around 14 million tons (around 8.96
million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to
export around 2 million tons of rice this year after exporting about 1.8
million tons of rice in FY 2014-15.
USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 20 million tons of paddy rice (around
12.8 million tons, milled basis) and export around 2 million tons of rice in MY
2015-16 (January - December 2015).
Italian Farmers to Adopt
Sustainable Rice Growing Methods to Overcome High Temperatures, Water Problems
Aug 03, 2015
The Italian rice sector is facing
severe problems with highest temperatures being recorded in this July. Local
sources say this July has been the warmest of the last century with
temperatures nearly 6 degrees higher than the average of the last thirty years.
Added to the high temperatures, lack of significant amount of rain for last
one-and-half years has led to a decline in availability of water for irrigation
purposes.
Not only rice sector other
agricutural crops are also at risk. Therefore, on last Thursday, July 30, 2015,
the trade unions of all agricutural provinces in Novara,Vercelli and Pavia,
including Coldiretti and Cia Confragricoltura gathered at the headquarters of
Irrigation Consortium Est Sesia (East of Sesia river) to discuss about the
grave situation. They have reportedly agreed to start adopting newer rice
growing methods such as dry seeding to sustain rice production.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap -
Prices Slip Slightly with Futures Dip
Aug 03, 2015
The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker today with more sellers showing up
to the market given the drop in the futures market. Most farmers have are still
hoping to net $11.11 per cwt fob farm (about $245 per ton) although buyer
interest is roughly $1.00 per cwt (about $22 per ton) below that level.
In the meantime, the USDA estimates that as of Aug 2nd,
63% of the crop had headed which was 6% ahead of this time last year and
4% ahead of the previous 5-year average. As of now, the USDA estimates that 65%
of the rice crop in Arkansas had headed compared to , 25% in California, 94% in
Louisiana, 81% in Mississippi, 58% in Missouri, and 84% in Texas.
The USDA estimates that 70% percent of the crop in good to excellent
condition, which was 1% better than last week and 1% worse than this time last
year. As of now, the USDA estimates that 73% of the crop in Arkansas is in good
to excellent condition compared to, 80% in California, 59% in Louisiana, 74% in
Mississippi, 61% in Missouri, and 53% in Texas.
Private Players to Support
India's Rice Procurement Process in KMS 2015-16
Aug 03, 2015
The government of India is planning to involve private players in the rice
procurement process for the 2015-16 kharif marketing season (October -
September) in some states in order to address inadequate storage facilities,
according to the Economic Times.
Based on the recommendations of the high-level committee of the state-owned
Food Corporation of India (FCI), the Union Food Ministry has reportedly
finalized the procurement policy for the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, West Bengal and Assam. According to the policy, the Ministry seeks
to take support of private players in these states.
A Union Food Ministry official noted that though these five states
contibute to around 40% of the country's rice production, procurement in these
states in very minimal.
Since Bihar and West Bengal have a decentralized procurement policy (DCP),
they would be permitted to engage private players either independently or on
behalf of state agencies. In DCP states, FCI is not involved in procurement.
States procure food grains on their own and supply to the PDS. Any surplus
grains left out would be transferred to the Central Pool. However, in non-
DCP
states, normally FCI carries out the procurement process. But it can engage
private players if needed. They will be selected through tenders.
The government of India is planning to procure around 30 million tons of
rice in the 2015-16 kharif marketing season (October 2015 - September 2016). It
is planning to procure around 2.7 million tons from Uttar Pradesh, 2 million tons
from Bihar, 1.8 million tons from West Bengal, 300,000 tons from Jharkhand and
50,000 tons from Assam in KMS 2015-16.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain
procurement and distribution has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as
of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015), down about 1%
from last year, according to data by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food
& Public Distribution. The Indian government is targeting to procure 35.109
million tons of rice during the KMS 2014-15.
Delayed Harvests and Procurement
May Prompt Indonesia to Consider Rice Imports in 2015, Says USDA Post
Aug 03, 2015
The government of Indonesia (GOI) requires the state logistics agency Bulog
to maintain a minimum secure stock level of 2 million tons by the end of the
year. In order to boost domestic procurement, the GOT reorganized the Bulog in
early June 2015. Accordingly, the Bulog's domestic procurement target has been
set at 4 million tons (instead of normal 3.2 million tons) in line with the
statistic agency's expected production increase.
In Indonesia, typically, first paddy crop cycle commences between October
to February, followed by second paddy crop cycle between March to June, and
third paddy crop cycle between July to October. However, in MY 2014-15, planting
for first crop was delayed until mid-December due to water shortages and
consequently due to delay in first harvest, Bulog began domestic procurement
only in March 2015. The second and third harvests are also likely to be delayed
consequently.
As of June 2015, Bulog procured only 1.5 million tons, down from 1.7
million tons it procured last year. In order to meet its procurement target,
Bulog needs to procure about 2 million tons from farmers during the second
harvest period (July-August 2015). Post notes that this target is quite
ambitious as Bulog could procure only 1.2 millon tons last year under better
weather conditions.
The Post expects that at the current government prices (HPP), Bulog may
find it difficult to meet its procurement target as inflation and the delayed
harvests may push paddy prices above the HPP. Farmers may find it more
lucrative to sell to private traders. Therefore, the Post says even if Bulog
tries to meet its procurement target, the GOI may have to consider imports to
maintain Bulog's stocks at their prescribed levels.
The Post is waiting for the government's estimations on the second harvest.
Meanwhile, a moderate to strong El Nino is likely to hit Indonesia in November
2015, when the planting for 2015-16 first crop begins.
The BPS forecasts Indonesia's MY 2014-15 paddy rice production to reach a
record 6.7% y/y increase to around 75.6 million tons from a total harvested
area of around 14.4 million hectares. The government is keen on achieving
self-sufficiency in rice production over the next three years and is planning
to avoid imports this year.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Fall in Afternoon Trading as Market Faces Technical
Resistance and as Grains Turn Negative
Aug 03, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 12 cents per cwt (about
$3 per ton) lower at $11.395 per cwt (about $251 per ton). The other grains
finished the day lower; Soybeans closed about 0.5% lower at $9.3525 per bushel;
wheat finished about 0.1% lower at $4.9900 per bushel, and corn finished the
day about 1.3% lower at $3.7625 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded lower on Monday,
the first day of trade for August, as investors eyed economic data amid a
renewed decline in oil and overseas news. Sharp declines in oil weighed heavily
on stocks as U.S. and Chinese economic data indicated slowing demand. The
energy sector fell more than 1.5% as the greatest decliner in the S&P 500.
The ISM manufacturing data missed expectations, coming in at 52.7 versus the
53.5 forecast. The data was scheduled to be released at 10:00 a.m. but reports
surfaced before the opening bell. In Europe, the Athens stock exchange opened
nearly 23% lower after reopening for the first time in five weeks, recovering
some earlier losses to trade around 16% lower in the close.
Asian stocks closed lower amid
falling energy prices and a two-year low on the final read for the Caixin China
purchasing manager's index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 164
points, or 0.93%, at 17,526. The S&P 500 traded down 13 points, or 0.61%,
at 2,091, with energy leading nine sectors lower and utilities the only
advancer. The Nasdaq traded down 31 points, or 0.60%, at 5,097. Gold is trading
about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 4.1% lower, and the U.S.
dollar is seen trading at about 0.1% higher at about 1:45pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were 1,553 contracts traded, down from 1,775 contracts traded
on Thursday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday
decreased by 24 contracts to 8,815.
Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some
of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Aug 03, 2015
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for high quality rice, 100%B
grade, by about $5 per ton to around $375-$385 per ton today. Other Asia rice
sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $30 per
ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India 5%
rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on
Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton
premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton.
India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton.
India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India
parboiled rice is indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton
discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was last shown at around $415 - $425
per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton,
about $10 per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310
- $320 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per
ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around
$285 - $295 per ton.
USDA Post Estimates Argentina MY
2014-15 Rice Exports to Decline on Low Production, Stiff competition
USDA Post estimates Argentina MY 2014-15 (April 2015 - March 2016) rice
exports at around 450,000 tons, down about 3% from last year and down about 24%
from USDA's official estimates of around 590,000 tons due to an expected
decline in production. The Post reports that traders are facing difficulties in
selling Argentine rice abroad because of high local prices and stiff
competition from Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil and the U.S. For
example, Paraguay lately has displaced Argentine rice from Brazil and
Bolivia.
Argentina's paddy rice production in 2014-15 is estimated to be the lowest
in 6 years. USDA Post estimates Argentina's MY 2014-15 paddy production at
around 1.25 million tons, down about 12% from last year and down about 22% from
USDA's official estimates of around 1.615 million tons due to an expected
decline in harvested area.
The Post estimates Argentina's MY 2014-15 paddy harvested area at around
205,000 hectares, down about 9% from last year and down about 15% from USDA's
official estimates of around 242,000 tons. The decline in acreage is due to
very tight returns (in many cases negative), low farm prices, and large unsold
stocks. Planting for main season begins in October-November. Expected rainy and
cloudy spring season is expected to negatively impact yields.
USDA Forecasts Bangladesh MY
2015-16 Rice Imports to Decline Sharply on High Domestic Supplies, Import Duty
Aug 03, 2015
USDA Post estimates Bangladesh MY
2015-16 rice imports at around 600,000 tons, down about 51% from an estimated
1.22 million tons last year due to expected high domestic suppleis and the 10%
duty on rice imports that was imposed in May this year to curb cheap Indian
rice imports that generally constitute the largest proportion of the import
market. USDA Post estimates Bangladesh's MY 2015-16 total rice acreage and
production at around 11.8 million hectares and 34.8 million tons. Assuming a
normal monsoon, the Post expects Aman rice seedling production to progress as
scheduled.The Post reports that the government procured around 942,932 tons of
rice from the domestic market in FY 2014-15 (July-June) and as on July 21,
2015, the government rice stocks stood at around 1.09 million tons. The
government planned to procure one million tons of Boro milled rice and 100,000
tons of Boro paddy rice between May 1 - August 31, 2015. The Post reports
that high imports of cheaper rice and strong domestic production have led to an
increase in domestic supplies and consequently low prices. The following figure
shows rice prices in Dhaka and Gazipur. While the government is planning
to continue to allow aromatic/fragrant rice exports, it is still not permitting
exports of non-fragrant rice. However, it recently permitted for the export of
non-fragrant rice to Sri Lanka.
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