7th August(Friday),2015 Daily Exclusvie ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Government of India Approves Bulk Export of Rice Bran Oil

Aug 06, 2015

Following the decision by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) to "allow unrestricted exports of rice bran oil in bulk" in July this year, the Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) under the Ministry of Commerce has announced that the Indian government would hereafter allow export of rice bran oil in bulk, according to a notification by the DGFT.It also removed quantitative restrictions on the export of organic edible oils."Export of rice bran oil in bulk has been exempted from the prohibition on export of edible oils. Also, the quantity ceiling on export of organic edible oils has been removed," states the notification.Rice millers and edible oil exporters had welcomed the CCEA decision. "This would help rice farmers as well as the country in realising full potential in this segment. India produces one million tons of rice bran oil, but we have capacity to reach 1.6 million tons," the Executive Director of the Solvent Extractors Association was quoted as saying.

FAO Global Rice Price Index Continues to Decline for Eleventh Consecutive Month

Aug 06, 2015

The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 211 points in July 2015, down about 0.9% from around 213 points in June 2015 due to a decline in most of the sub-indices. According to the FAO, the price weakness dominated the principal market segments. The Higher and Lower Quality Indica sub-indices declined by about 1.3% and 1.7% respectively to around 182 points and 185 points. The Aromatic subindex declined by 2.7% to 175 points. However, the Japonica price index remained unchanged in July 2015.

The FAO index has been declining continuously since September 2014. It declined about 12% during the 11-month period. The FAO index value in July is the lowest since June 2010.
 

In January - July 2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 217 points, down about 8% from around 236 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher quality Indica rice prices declined about 10.2% y/y and sub-index for lower quality Indica rice prices declined about 6.1% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub-index declined about 29% y/y. However, sub-index for Japonica rice prices increased about 3.4% y/y.
 

According to the FAO, rice export prices in Thailand increased on concerns of drought affecting the production. Export prices in Vietnam and India also increased due to a revical of sales to Africa. However, export prices in Vietnam, Pakistan, U.S., Argentina and Uruguay declined due to higher supplies and slow export sales.
 

During July 2015, average rice export prices of Thai 100% broken rice, Thai parboiled rice, Thai 5% rice and Thai 25% rice increased to around $401 per ton, $399 per ton, $392 per ton and $376 per ton respectively. But, Average export prices of Thai A1 Super and Thai fragrant rice declined to around $321 per ton and $1,031 per ton respectively. Export prices of India 25% broken rice increased to around $351 per ton. However, export prices of Vietnam 25% broken rice, Pakistan 25% broken rice, U.S. 4% broken and Uruguay 5% broken rice declined to around $323 per ton, $332 per ton, $445 per ton and $526 per ton respectively.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Come under Pressure as Weekly Export Sales Disappoint; Wheat Manages to Strengthen despite Softer Grains

Aug 06, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 10 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $11.440 per cwt (about $252 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower, excluding wheat which managed to move higher; Soybeans closed about 1.1% lower at $9.4325 per bushel; wheat finished about 1% higher at $5.0700 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.7% lower at $3.8050 per bushel.

U.S. stocks fell nearly 1% or more on Thursday as renewed declines in oil weighed on investor sentiment amid a slew of earnings releases and Friday's key employment report. The major averages came off session lows after extending losses in midday trade as the S&P 500 broke through a key level of 2,087 that many analysts were watching. Consumer discretionary fell about 2% as the greatest decliner in the S&P 500, weighed by media stocks. Economists expect 223,000 nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with unemployment unchanged at 5.3%, according to Thomson Reuters. Jobs data so far this week was mixed. Initial claims came in Thursday at 270,000, slightly below expectations. The private sector report from ADP showed fewer-than-expected jobs were created. Oil continued to decline, with WTI crude off 1.5% at a fresh five-month low near $44.30 a barrel. Brent dipped below $48 a barrel. In Europe, equities closed lower as crude weighed on sentiment and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 126 points, or 0.72%, at 17,413. The S&P 500 traded down 17 points, or 0.82%, at 2,082, with health care leading nine sectors lower and energy the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded down 83 points, or 1.62%, at 5,056. Gold is trading about 0.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading nearly about 0.1% lower about  1:00pm Chicago time.

Wednesday, there were 344 contracts traded, down from 2,766 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 34 contracts to 9,384.

Stiff Competition, Limited Exportable Supplies to Lower Thai Rice Exports in 2015, Says USDA Post

Aug 06, 2015

USDA Post forecasts Thailand's 2015 rice exports to decline about 18% to around 9 million tons from an estimated 10.97 million tons in 2014 due to a stiff competition with Vietnam and India as well as expected limited exportable supplies. The Post expects exportable supplies to be low because of a likely low output from the new crop on drought conditions as well as lesser good quality stocks in the government warehouses.

Thailand exported around 4.5 million tons of rice in the first six months of 2015, down 5% from last year due to a reduction in white and parboiled rice exports. The Post reports that the export prices of Thai white rice have increased in the mid-July due to tighter new-crop supplies.  

The Post forecasts exports in 2016 to increase slightly to 9.5 million tons due to tighter exportable supplies of white and parboiled rice in anticipation of smaller MY 2015-16 off-season rice production.

According to the Post, the government was holding around 14 million tons of rice in its ware houses as of July 20. Of these, around 8 million tons are food-grade rice, of which around 0.7 million tons are good quality rice and around 7.3 million tons are sub-standard rice or unaccounted for. Meanwhile, around 6 million tons are non-food grade rice, of which around 5 million tons are still good for industrial use and around 1 million tons are rotten rice.

The Post forecast Thailand's MY 2015-16 (January -December 2015) milled rice production at around 18 million tons, down about 7% from around 19.4 million tons due to on-going drought in irrigated areas, particularly in the lower northern region and the central plains. In July, the government stopped water supplies for main-rice crop in these regions due to critically low reservoir levels. The government expects that around 1.5 million rai (around 240,000 hectares) of main-rice crop will likely be adversely affected by drought.  

Due to anticipated tight supplies, farm-gate prices of white paddy rice increased significantly to around 8,400 baht per ton ($242 per ton) compared to 7,600 baht per ton ($227 per ton) in June 2015. 

The government has also announced that it will reduce the water supplies by half during the dry-season crops in 2016. 

Indonesia Rules Out Rice Imports Immediately Despite El Nino Concerns

Aug 06, 2015

The government of Indonesia is planning to increase 2015 paddy rice output by about 7% to around 75.2 million tons from around 70 million tons in 2014 despite concerns of a drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern likely to affect rice production in the coutnty, Reuters quoted Agriculture Ministry officials.The Agricultural Ministry is keen on acheiving the target by providing emergency measures to farmers affected by drought. The Agricutlure Minister has reportedly discussed on plans to deal with the weather pattern and ensuring the target is met. As part of efforts to increase rice production, the government has supported the rice sector by distributing 20,000 irrigation pumps and digging about 1,000 wells as well as 1,000 reservoirs.

In July this year, the country's statistics agency forecasted an output of about 75.55 million tons in 2015. However, as dry conditions have damaged about 52,000 hectares of rice land in some, the Ministry cut its target by about 250,000 - 300,000 tons.While Indonesia's President has called for a no rice import policy, some analysts expressed concern that the country may have to import some rice to make up for the production shortfall due to drought conditions.

The Agriculture Minister noted that the government is taking all measures to achieve the desired output and imports would be the last option. The government did not import any rice so far this year.

USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October - September). While some analysts are forecasting imports to reach about 1.6 million tons.

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Lower Overnight as Market Continues to Drift Sideways

Aug 06, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen paused 11 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $11.430 per cwt (about $252 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading with mixed results this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 1.1% higher, wheat is listed about 0.8% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.7% higher.

U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Thursday as markets digested the latest Challenger jobs report, amid a raft of earnings reports, as investors geared up for Friday's closely watched July jobs report. Weekly jobless claims came in at 270,000, slightly below expectations. U.S. job cuts soared to a nearly four-year high in July as the military announced plans to reduce troop and civilian workforce payrolls. Employers based in the United States announced 105,696 layoffs last month, the first time monthly reductions exceeded 100,000 since September 2011. A year ago, U.S. companies announced plans to cut 46,887 jobs. However, none of the jobs data so far this week are expected to significantly affect Friday's key report. In Europe, equities traded lower on Thursday, as crude weighed on sentiment and markets ready themselves for an interest rate decision and economic outlook report from the Bank of England (BoE). Gold is currently trading slightly lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.2% lower,  and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% higher at 8:15am Chicago time.

Thailand , Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Today; Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes

Aug 06, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for Hommali rice by about $5 per ton to around $855-$865 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $340-$350 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers lowered most of their quotes by about $5 per ton today. India rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was last  shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.

Vietnam Rice Exports to Asian Destinations Increase Sharply in June 2015

Aug 06, 2015

Vietnam's rice exports have increased in June 2015 after declining sharply in May 2015, according to USDA. While the share of Vietnam's rice exports to Asian, Africa and American destinations increased in June 2015, its share of exports to Europe declined during the month. 

Vietnam has exported around 620,421 tons of rice in June 2015, up about 18% from around 526,133 tons exported in May 2015, and down about 1% from around 628,322 tons exported in June 2014. 

Asia accounted for around 456,928 tons (about 74% of total rice exports by Vietnam in June 2015) in June 2015. Month-on-month, Vietnam's rice exports to Asian destinations increased about 22% from around 375,569 tons exported in May 2015. Year-on-year, they declined about 14% from around 528,573 tons exported in June 2014.

Vietnam exported around 86,848 tons of rice to Africa (about 14% of total June 2015 exports) in June 2015, up about 3% from around 84,371 tons exported in May 2015, and nearly four times from around 22,406 tons exported in June 2014.

Vietnam exported around 63,682 tons of rice to American destinations (about 10% of June 2015 exports) in June 2015, up about 9% from around 58,239 tons exported in May 2015, and down about 1.5% from around 64,640 tons exported in June 2014. 

Vietnam's exports to Australia (about 0.5% of June 2015 exports) declined about 12% to around 2,969 tons in June 2015 from around 3,391 tons exported in May 2015 and increased about 42% times from around 2.096 tons exported in June 2014.

Vietnam's exports to Europe and CIS countries (about 0.2% of total June 2015 exports) accounted for around 10,004 tons in June 2015, over twice from around 4,563 tons exported in May 2015 and down about 6% from around 10,607 tons exported in June 2014. 

In terms of grade, 5% broken rice exports accounted for around 223,499 tons (or, about 36% of total June 2015 exports); Jasmine rice exports accounted for around 107,104 tons (or, about 17% of total June 2015 exports); 25% broken rice exports accounted for around 82,614 tons (or, about 13% of total exports in June 2015); 15% broken rice exports accounted for around 51,172 tons (or, about 8% of total exports in June 2015);  glutinous rice exports accounted for around 46,239 tons (or, about 7% of total June 2015 exports); and 10%, 100% and other varieties accounted for around 109,803 tons (or, about 18% of total exports in June 2015).

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7th August (Thursday),2015 Daily Exclusvie ORYZA RiceE-Newsletter by Riceplus