FAO Estimates 2015 Global Milled Rice Production to Increase Slightly to
500.6 Million Tons
Sep 10, 2015
The UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates 2015 global
milled rice production to increase
about 0.7% to around 500.6 million tons from around 497 million tons in 2014-15
and slightly above its previous estimate of around 499.3 million tons. The
increase is attributed to India, where plantings are progressing in line with
last season in spite of the prevailing El Niño.
The UN agency
estimates 2015-16 global rice utilization at around 509.7 million tons (basis, milled), up about
8.4 million tons from last year. It expects the rice consumption at around
422 million tons, up about 1.7% from last year.
The FAO estimates
2015-16 global rice stocks at 169.6 million tons, down about 5% from last year due
to offloading of inventories in the five major exporting countries. The world
stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.6%, down from last year's 35%.
The UN agency
estimates 2015-16 world rice trade at around 42.1 million tons, slightly above last year's
42 million tons.
Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Rally ahead of USDA S&D Update
Sep 10, 2015
Chicago
rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 20.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per
ton) higher at $12.670 per cwt (about $279 per ton). The other grains finished
the day higher; Soybeans closed about 0.2% higher at $8.7400 per bushel; wheat
finished about 1.2% higher at $4.7800 per bushel, and corn finished the day
about 1.4% higher at $3.7425per bushel.
U.S.
stocks attempted gains Thursday, as recovery in oil and major stocks offset
increased uncertainty heading into the Federal Reserve's key meeting next week.
Analysts said uncertainty over the timing of a rate hike kept stocks in a
trading range. Crude oil reversed a 3.9% decline to briefly gain more than 3%
to above $45.50 a barrel. Crude held higher despite weekly inventory numbers
that showed a greater-than-expected build of 2.6 million barrels. The Federal
Open Market Committee could raise short-term interest rates for the first time
in more than nine years at its meeting next Wednesday and Thursday.
In
economic news, initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted
275,000 for the week ended Sept. 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. It
was the 27th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold,
which is usually associated with a strengthening labor market. U.S. import and
export prices posted their largest drop in seven months. The Dow Jones
industrial average traded up 103 points, or 0.64%, at 16,357. The S&P 500
traded up 13 points, or 0.7%, at 1,955. The Nasdaq Gold is trading about
0.8% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.2% higher, and the U.S. dollar
is seen trading about 0.6% lower about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there
were 1,229 contracts traded, up from 587 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest
– the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 298 contracts
to 9,990.
FAO Global Rice Price Index Continues to Decline for Twelfth Consecutive
Month
Sep 10, 2015
The FAO All Rice
Price Index declined to around 209 points in August 2015, down about 0.9% from
around 211 points in July 2015 the sub-indices declined or remained stable over
the past month.
According to the
FAO, the Higher and Lower Quality Indica sub-indices declined by about 2.7% and
1.6% respectively to around 179 points and 182 points. The Aromatic and
Japonica sub-indices remained steady at around 175 points and 265 points
respectively.
The FAO index has
been declining continuously since September 2014. It declined about 13.6%
during the one-year period. The FAO index value in August is the lowest since
June 2010.
In January - August
2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 236 points, down about 8.7% from
around 216 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher
quality Indica rice prices declined about 11.1% y/y and sub-index for lower
quality Indica rice prices declined about 7.3% y/y. Aromatic rice price
sub-index declined about 29.8% y/y. However, sub-index for Japonica rice prices
increased about 3% y/y.
According to the
FAO, slow import demand and currency movements weighed on export quotations of
the major suppliers. Rice export prices in Thailand declined due to softening
of demand and the devaluation of baht against the dollar. The FAO says market
weakness also impacted prices in other Aisan origins such as Pakistan and Viet
Nam, as well as in South America. However, prices held steadier in the United
States and Australia.
During August 2015,
average rice export prices of Thai 100% broken rice, Thai parboiled rice, Thai
5% rice, Thai 25% rice and Thai Fragrant rice declined to around $382 per ton,
$387 per ton, $373 per ton, $362 per ton and $997 per ton respectively. But,
average export prices of Thai A1 Super rice increased to around $324 per ton.
Export prices of India 25% broken rice, Vietnam 25% broken rice and Pakistan
25% broken rice declined to around $339 per ton, $316 per ton and $324 per ton
respectively.
U.S. 4% broken and
Uruguay 5% broken rice declined to around $323 per ton, $332 per ton, $445 per
ton and $526 per ton respectively.
Global Rice Quotes
September 10th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high
quality
Thailand 100% B grade 355-365 ↔
Vietnam 5% broken 320-330 ↔
India 5% broken 365-375 ↔
Pakistan 5% broken 315-325 ↔
Myanmar 5% broken 420-430 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 420-430 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 530-540 ↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔
Long grain white rice - low
quality
Thailand 25% broken 330-340 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 315-325 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 290-300 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 405-415 ↔
India 25% broken 340-350 ↔
U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 350-360 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken
stxd 415-425 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 570-580 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 810-820 ↔
Vietnam Jasmine 450-460 ↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 305-315 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 310-320 ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 335-345 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB
vessel, oryza.com
Cambodia May Not Bid for Philippines Tender Due to Uncompetitive Prices,
Say Exporters
Sep 10, 2015
Cambodian
rice exporters have expressed concern that Cambodia may not bid for the
Philippines tender for 750,000 tons as they cannot compete with Thailand and
Vietnam exporters on price, according to local sources.
The
National Food Authority (NFA) of the Philippines, which was authorised for the
import of 750,000 tonnes of rice, has invited the governments of Cambodia,
Thailand and Vietnam to join the bidding process to fill the quota, according
to a report from Reuters.
The
Director-General of the state-owned agriculture company Green Trade told local
sources that given higher costs of production, storage and transportation,
Cambodia cannot lower its price to a large extent unlike Vietnam and Thailand.
“Our cost of rice is still higher than other countries so we will consider
joining the next bid when we can lower the cost of rice,” he said. “We are on
the process of discussing which sectors we can cut cost that would lower the
cost of rice as a result,” he added.
In
June this year, Cambodia lost in a tender invited by the NFA for import of
100,000 tons. While Vietnam bid at around $416 per ton, Cambodia bid at around
$455 per ton, which was much higher than the Philippines' reference price of
$408.15 per ton.
The Acting Secretary
of Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) said: “NFA needs good quality rice at a low
price and we could not compete with the cost of rice.” He added that the CRF
members are still undecided over bidding for the Philippines tender.
Government of Thailand to Carry out Nationwide Inspection of Rice
Warehouses
Sep 10, 2015
Thailand's National
Rice Policy Committee (NRPC) chaired by the Prime Minister has instructed the
authorities in 51 provinces to carry out an inspection of about 13.5 million
tons of rice stored in around 1,800 warehouses across the country, according to
local sources.
Earlier inspections
revealed that about 4.6 million tons of rice were sub-standard and about 1.3
million tons were rotten.
The latest
inspection is to completed within 30 days and the officials are required to
bifurcate the exact amount of good-quality and rotten rice. The findings will
help the government fix an appropriate sale price for the rice, local sources
quoted the Commerce Permanent Secretary as saying.
She told reporters
that the prices received in the latest rice auction on September 8 were too
low. The average bidding price stood at around 9,460 baht per ton (around $262
per ton) compared to the 15,000 baht per ton (around $415 per ton) spent for
procuring the paddy or about 24,000 baht
per ton (around $664 per ton) for
procuring milled rice. Adding the storage and maintenance costs, the loss to
the state is said to be very high. The government has sold about 246,793 tons
of stockpiled rice to 14 local traders in the tender raising about 2.33 billion
baht (around $64.40 million).
The Thai military
government sold about 4.55 million tons of rice raising about 48.63 billion
baht (around $1.35) from ten auctions since it took over in May 2014.
Italy Rice Exports to Non-EU Nations Sluggish in First Week of New Crop
Year
Sep 10, 2015
Italy rice exports
to the non-EU nations in the first week of 2015-16 crop year (September-August)
have more than halved to around 1,195 tons from around 2,494 tons during the
same period last year, according to the data provided by the Italian Ministry
of Economic Development.
While exports to
Long A varieties declined by about 71.9% to around 429 tons from around 1,522
tons last year, exports of Long B varieties declined by about 34% to around 196
tons from around 295 tons last year and exports of medium varieties declined by
about 49.5% to around 195 tons from around 388 tons last year. However, exports
of medium rice (milled basis) increased about 23% to around 375 tons from
around 289 tons last year.
Exports to the U.S.
registered the highest decline. They stood at around 54 tons compared to 835
tons last year. Exports to Turkey stood at around 24 tons compared to 271 tons
last year; exports to Albania stood at around 18 tons compared to 243 tons last
year; exports to Bosnia stood at around 24 tons compared to 206 tons last year;
and exports to other destinations stood at around 29 tons compared to 404 tons
last year.
India Rice Stocks in Central Pool Stand at 16.313 Million Tons as of
September 1, 2015; Down 25% from Last Year
Sep 10, 2015
India’s rice stocks
in the central pool as of September 1, 2015 stood at around 16.313 million tons
(including a milled equivalent of about 3.614 million tons of paddy), down
about 25% from around 21.65 million tons recorded during the same period last
year, according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI).
Month-over-month,
India's rice stocks in the central pool are down about 12% from around 18.6
million tons recorded on August 1, 2015. However, current rice stocks are about
61% more than the required buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 11.54
million tons for this time of the year, according to the FCI.
Total food grain
stocks (including rice and wheat) in the central pool stand at around 50.94 million
tons as of September 1, 2015, down about 12% from last year's stock of around
57.893 million tons and down about 8% from last month's stock of around 55.523
million tons. Wheat stocks stand at around 34.474 million tons, down about 3%
from last year's stock of around 35.498 million tons and down about 6% from
last month's stock of around 36.778 million tons.
The government of
India had revised the buffer norms for food grains, including rice, in the
Central Pool in January this year. According to the new norms, buffer stocks
for food grains to be maintained with the FCI at this part of the year is 41.12
million tons.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Rally as
Market Moves into Technical Uptrend
Sep 10, 2015
Chicago rough rice
futures for Nov delivery are currently paused 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per
ton) higher at $12.585 per cwt (about $277 per ton) ahead of floor trading in
Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mostly lower ahead of early
morning action; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.4% lower, wheat is
listed about 0.3% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.2% lower.
U.S.
stock index futures pared gains to trade in negative
territory Thursday after another day of volatility on
Wednesday and another round of disappointing data from Japan and China.
Traders will likely look past economic reports Thursday and the
normal triggers of market movements to see if conditions stabilize, creating an
environment where the Fed would be more comfortable hiking rates for the first
time in more than nine years. The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500
futures held lower, with the Dow futures off about 50 points after earlier
dipping more than 100. Nasdaq futures briefly attempted slight gains. Wall
Street is plainly split on whether the Fed will hike next week, with some
saying the markets are already displaying enough volatility to sideline the
central bank for several months or more.
But
most agree the markets have not priced in a rate increase, and there could be a
violent reaction to whatever it does. On the data front, initial jobless claims
fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 275,000 for the week ended Sept. 5, the
Labor Department said on Thursday. It was the 27th straight week that
claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is usually associated with a
strengthening labor market. U.S. import and export prices posted their largest
drop in seven months. In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was more than
1% lower after weak data from Japan and China. Core machinery orders in Japan
fell by 3.6% in July, while in China, the producer price index fell by 5.9%.
Gold is currently trading about 0.9% higher, crude oil is seen trading about
0.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% lower
at 8:15am Chicago time.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Rally ahead of WASDE; Chinese Protocol
Developments Add to Bullish Sentiment
Sep 10, 2015
The U.S. cash market
was on fire today although sellers were difficult to come by ahead of
the tomorrow’s USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate.
Analysts expect that
the USDA will cut their acreage figure as well a field yield projection which
will tighten next year’s endings stocks figure however estimates vary as to how
much the USDA will cut the latter.
Adding to the
bullish tone today, were reports that the U.S. is one step closer to finalizing
phytosanitary rules with China that would be necessary to allow U.S rice
imports into that country.
Many in the industry
see this as a huge development for U.S. rice exports, as China is the greatest
consumer of rice, however others are more cautious noting that the deal has yet
to be signed.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Sep 10, 2015
Rain is expected in China from Shanxi, southwest to Yunnan and Sichuan on Thursday
and Friday. In Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong, isolated showers are expected
through Friday.
In India, scattered showers are expected from Maharashtra to
southern Odisha on southward through Sunday. Weather is expected to remain dry
across the rest of India through Sunday.
Scattered showers
are expected across Bangladesh on Thursday and Friday.
In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across northern Sumatra
and Borneo on Thursday and Friday. Weather is expected to remain dry in
Sulawesi, southern Borneo and southern Sumatra.
Scattered showers
are expected across most parts of Vietnam on Thursday and Friday.
Scattered showers
are expected across Thailand on Thursday and Friday.
Weather is expected
to remain dry across Pakistan through Sunday.
In the U.S., rice producers had harvested 35% of this year’s crop by
September 6. Overall, 65% of the rice was reported in good to excellent
condition.
Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes
Unchanged Today
Sep 10, 2015
Thailand rice
sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around
$340-$350 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly
unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday
and about $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $320 - $330
per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $50
per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
shown at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 25%
rice shown at around $315- $325 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$340 - $350 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around
$290 - $300 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $355- $365 per ton, about $60 per ton discount to Pakistan
parboiled rice last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken
rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, about $5 per ton
from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $25 per
ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $275 - $285 per
ton.
USDA Post Lowers Vietnam 2015 Rice Export Estimates on Increased
Competition, Declining Demand
Sep 10, 2015
USDA Post has
lowered its estimates for Vietnam's 2015 rice exports to 6 million tons, down
about 10% from USDA's official estimate of around 6.7 million tons and down
about 5% from an estimated 6.325 million tons last year. The downward revision
is mainly due to expected strong competition from Thailand, India, Pakistan and
other new exporters such as Cambodia and Myanmar; as well as lower demand from
its main importer China.
The Post estimates
Vietnam's 2014-15 (January-December 2015) paddy rice production to reach around
44.92 million tons (around 28.07 million tons, basis milled), slightly up from
USDA's official estimate of around 44.88 million tons (around 28 million tons,
basis milled) due to the increase of production of autumn crop in the Mekong
River Delta (MRD). The increase of production of autumn crop in the MRD also
off set the slight decrease of production of total Vietnam’s spring crop, and
mild decrease of autumn crop in other areas of Southern Vietnam , especially in
the south central coastland areas that were impacted by strong drought conditions
caused by El Nino.
USDA Post estimates
2014-15 rice stocks to reach about 973,000 tons, up from USDA's official
estimates of around 849,000 tons but down from last year's 999,000 tons due to
likely increase in production and a decline in consumption.
The amount of rice
used for average per capita consumption has decreased because of the
availability of other food sources, according to the Post. However, consumption
of rice has been increasing in the feed industry. Currently, per capita rice
consumption is 136 kilograms.
Vietnam Rice Exports to Africa Decline Sharply in July 2015
Sep 10, 2015
Vietnam's rice
exports have declined sharply in July 2015 reportedly due to a decline in
export demand and stiff competition from India and Thailand. While share of
Vietnam's rice exports to Asian and European destinations increased in July
2015, its share of exports to Africa, American and Australian destinations
declined during the month.
Vietnam has exported
around 606,485 tons of rice in July 2015, down about 2% from around 620,431
tons exported in June 2015, and down about 1% from around 614,677 tons exported
in July 2014, according to USDA.
Asia accounted for
around 492,334 tons (about 81% of total rice exports by Vietnam in July 2015)
during the month. Month-on-month, Vietnam's rice exports to Asian destinations
increased about 8% from around 456,928 tons exported in June 2015.
Year-on-year, they increased about 4% from around 474,021 tons exported in July
2014.
Vietnam's
exports to Australia (about 0.4% of July 2015 exports) declined about 17% to
around 2,472 tons in July 2015 from around 2,969 tons exported in June 2015 and
increased about 20% from around 2,062 tons exported in July 2014.Vietnam's
exports to Europe and CIS countries (about 3% of total July 2015 exports)
accounted for around 18,485 tons in July 2015, up about 85% from around 10,004
tons exported in June 2015 and up about 80% from around 10,289 tons exported in
July 2014.
In
terms of grade, 5% broken rice exports accounted for around 147,513 tons (or,
about 24% of total July 2015 exports); Jasmine rice exports accounted for
around 103,574 tons (or, about 17% of total July 2015 exports); 15% broken rice
exports accounted for around 53,715 tons (or, about 9% of total exports in July
2015); 25% broken rice exports accounted for around 185,841 tons (or, about 31%
of total exports in July 2015); glutinous rice exports accounted for around
30,320 tons (or, about 5% of total July 2015 exports); and 10%, 100% and other
varieties accounted for around 85,522 tons (or, about 14% of total exports in July
2015).
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