Oryza
Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Slide as Market Enters
Technical Downtrend
Oct 15, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Nov
delivery are currently noted 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at
$12.025 per cwt (about $265 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading with mixed results overnight; soybeans are
currently seen trading about 0.3% higher, wheat is listed about 0.1% higher and
corn is currently noted 0.3% lower.
U.S. stocks opened slightly higher
Thursday as investors digested mostly soft economic data that supported the
case for a rate hike delay. In economic news, September CPI declined 0.2%,
matching expectations. Ex-food and energy, the price index rose 0.2% for the
month, following a 0.1% rise in August. Weekly jobless claims came in at
255,000. The October Empire State Index posted a read of negative 11.36. The
index showed negative 14.67 in September. The Philly Fed index is set to be
released at 10:00 a.m. In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index traded more
than 1% higher on Thursday. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished 1.15% higher, while
in China the Shanghai Composite closed 2.32% higher. In opening trade, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average gained 28 points, or 0.16%, to 16,947. The S&P 500
rose 6 points, or 0.3%, to 2,000, with consumer staples leading eight sectors
higher and materials and health care the only laggards. The Nasdaq traded up 16
points, or 0.36%, at 4,799. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% higher, crude
oil is seen trading about 1.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading
about 0.6% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.
Government
of Thailand Again Advises Farmers to Avoid Off-Season Rice Planting
Oct 15, 2015
The Agriculture and Cooperatives
Ministry has again advised farmers not to carry out off-season rice planting
operations as water levels in the reservoirs are still not sufficient for rice
farming, according to local sources.
The Agriculture Permanent Secretary
noted that most of the rice growing regions did not receive rains in the past
few weeks. He noted that the government has been taking up rain-making missions
to increase water levels at the four major dams - Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak
Jolasid and Khwae Noi Bamrungdaen.
The rain-making missions are likely
to push up water levels in the reservoirs from the current 3,700 million cubic
meters to around 4,400 million cubic meters in the next two weeks. However, the
water won't be sufficient for rice farming, said the Permanent Secretary. He
urged the farmers to heed to the government's advice on water
conservation.
Some farmers are understood to have
planted the off-season rice despite government’s warnings saying rice farming
is their main means of living. Most of the farmers are debt-ridden and are
seeking support measures from the government.
The extending drought conditions
are likely to lower the Thai paddy rice production to around 22.98 million tons
in 2015-16, down about 30% from around 32.62 million tons last year.
Nigeria
Plans to Stop Rice Imports from 2017
Oct 15, 2015
The Federal Government of Nigeria
is planning to ban rice imports from 2017, according to local sources.
The decision was taken at a meeting
between the President, Governors of some rice-producing states and the Central
Bank Governor on Wednesday. The government is keen on achieving
self-sufficiency in rice production and ban imports. Investments being made in
rice mills across the country are said to support the government's target.
However, the government is keen on
not implementing the ban until the local rice sector is completely developed
and is capable of producing rice needed for local consumption. A similar
decision in 2013 had led to an increase in rice smuggling in the country.
All the state Governors reportedly
agreed to support the Federal government's decision and work towards increasing
the rice production and food security in the country.
Nigeria is a traditional importer
of rice and imports over half of the annual demand. Nigeria produced around 2.9
million tons in 2014, about 52% higher than around 1.9 million tons produced in
2013.
USDA estimates Nigeria to produce around
2.709 million tons of rice and import around 3 million tons of rice in MY
2015-16 (October – September) to meet a consumption demand of around 6 million
tons.
European
Farmers Association Welcomes Changes to EU Organic Farming Proposal
Oct 15, 2015
Copa-Cogeca, the European
federation of farmers Unions and agri-cooperatives, has welcomed changes to the
European Union (EU) organic farming proposal after the European Parliament's
Agriculture Committee voted for the changes to the original proposal on October
14, 2015, according to local sources.
The Secretary-General of
Copa-Cogeca hailed the decision to retain the mixed farms structure so that
farmers could gradually convert to organic farming. He also expressed
satisfaction over the decision to maintain annual controls.
The MEPs of the European
Parliament's Agriculture Committee however noted that the conditions to
establish a specific European declassification level for organic products are
still to be established. They told local sources that they want imports to
comply with the EU production standards in order to ensure fairer competition
between EU farmers and non-EU farmers. This is particularly important to
maintain consumer confidence because both EU and non-EU products can bear the
same EU organic logo.
"We believe that organic seeds
must meet the same high expectations that customers have for the identity,
performance, quality, health and traceability of non-organic seed. With this
negotiating position, MEPs can enter into negotiations with the European
Council," they said.
Talks with the European Council can
lead to having improved EU organic farming legislation and thereby contribute
to the development of the sector, said the MEPs. They noted that the idea of
the EU organic farming review is to ensure that the 250,000 organic farmers
have pragmatic rules that will allow them to earn a living from their
activities while ensuring consumer confidence.
Philippines
Estimates 2015 Third Quarter Paddy Production at 2.579 Million Tons
Oct 15, 2015
The Philippine Statistics Agency
(PSA) estimates the Philippines paddy rice production in the third quarter
(July - September) of 2015 to decline about 14.8% to around 2.579 million tons
from around 3.03 million tons during the same period in 2014, and down from its
previous forecast of around 2.589 million tons, according to a statement on its
website.
The PSA estimates harvest area to
decline about 0.2% y/y to around 656,910 hectares from around 658,090 hectares
last year. However, it estimates per hectare yield to remain unchanged from
last year's 3.93 tons per hectare.
The decline in production is
attributed to insufficient water supply and extreme heat caused by dry
spell in most of the rice producing states. The incidence of stem borer in some
states as well as adverse effects of typhoons ”Egay” and “Hannah” and “Ineng”
are also responsible for decline in production. Around 203,000 hectares of the
current crop are harvested.
The local weather bureau has warned
of an intensifying El Nino in the coming months, which could potentially affect
paddy output in central, southern and northern provinces. The effects of the El
Nino are expected to last till the middle of 2016. Government officials are
considering the phenomenon to be as intense as that in 1997-98, when the farm
output fell by 23% and prices increased significantly.
The government is concerned that
the country's paddy rice output may not reach the targeted 20.09 million tons
due to the El Nino induced drought conditions. It has already approved for
importing about 1.8 million tons of rice for delivery this year, including
about 937,000 tons already received and about 600,000 tons purchased by the
private traders under the WTO rules.
Pakistan
Rice Exporters Face Cost Disadvantage in Global Market, Says REAP Official
Oct 15, 2015
The Senior Vice-Chairman of the
Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) says Pakistan rice exporters face
a cost disadvantage in the international market due to high cost of
fertilizers, electricity and lack of research and development, according to
Bloomberg.
He says the Pakistan rice trade is
uncompetitive, especially in basmati varieties and due to the above reasons,
many international buyers are switching to Indian basmati rice.
Accumulating stocks from the last
year, which are currently about 500,000 tons are another cause of concern for
the exporters. Arrival of stocks from the new crop are likely to add to the
woes of the exporters, he says.
Farmers are also unhappy despite
getting a bumper crop this year as there are no buyers for their paddy. Due to
increasing stocks, traders are unwilling to buy paddy from farmers this year.
Exporters have been urging the
government to intervene and facilitate rice trade with traditional as well as
new markets. Farmers are also demanding for introducing a minimum support price
(MSP) for basmati paddy.
Pakistan exported around 396,199
tons of rice in the first two months of FY 2015-16 (July - June), up about 14%
from around 348,084 tons exported during the same period in FY 2014-15.
However, Pakistan's rice exports declined in terms of value during the said
period. Pakistan earned around $213 million during the two months of FY
2015-16, down about 7% from around $230 million earned last year.
Increasing
Supplies and Falling Consumption May Lower Rice Prices in South Korea
Oct 15, 2015
Experts are worried that increasing
supplies and falling consumption in South Korea may lead to a decline in prices
domestically, according to local sources.
Based on data from Statistics
Korea, the government is expecting 2015 rice production to increase about 0.4%
y/y to around 4.25 million tons (basis milled). The increase is reportedly
higher than the average production by about 7.5%. The production is likely to
increase despite a fall in acreage by about 2% to around 799,000 hectares this
year from around 816,000 hectares last year. Acreage has been declining
consistently since 2010 from around 892,000 hectares.
Meanwhile, rice consumption also
has been declining since 2005. The per capita consumption of rice has fallen to
65.1 kilograms in 2014, from 80.7 tons in 2005, according to the Agriculture
Ministry sources. At the same time, demand for flour based foods is
increasing. Per capita consumption of flour reached record 33.6 kilograms in
2014, highest since 2006.
Farmers are expecting the
government to procure more rice from them to avoid price falls amid rising
supplies. The price of a 80 kilogram pack of rice has already declined to
around 170,000 won (around $150) from the average 188,000 won (around $166).
However, an official from the
Agriculture Ministry noted that the government is not planning to increase the
reserves. “We set up the amount of reserved rice based on the international
standard, allocating 17% of consumption,” the official said. “Even if we want
to raise it, we can’t do that due to shrinking consumption,” he added.
Some farmers have expressed concern
that increasing imports are also increasing supplies in the country.
Oryza
Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Bounce as Cash Market Prices Fail
to Follow Futures Lower
Oct 15, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Nov
delivery settled 13.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at $12.280 per
cwt (about $271 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed
about 0.6% lower at $9.0525 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.1% lower at
$5.0250 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.9% lower at $3.550 per
bushel.
U.S. stocks traded higher Thursday
as investors digested key bank earnings and mostly soft economic data that
supported the case for a rate hike delay. The Dow Jones industrial average and
S&P 500 recovered to hold above the psychologically key levels of 17,000
and 2,000, respectively, after closing below on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index
out Thursday showed little inflation in the near-term, while retail sales
barely rose Wednesday. U.S. CPI declined 0.2% in September, matching
expectations. Ex-food and energy, the price index rose 0.2% for the month,
following a 0.1% rise in August. In another sign of continued strength in the
labor market, weekly jobless claims declined to 255,000, falling back to a
42-year low.
In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index
closed up about 1.5% on Thursday. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished 1.15%
higher, while in China the Shanghai Composite closed 2.32% higher. In afternoon
trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 135 points, or 0.8%, to 17,058.
The S&P 500 rose 16 points, or 0.85%, to 2,011, with financials leading
nine sectors higher and materials the only laggard. The Nasdaq traded up 43
points, or 0.91%, at 4,827. Gold is trading about 0.6% higher, crude oil is
seen trading about 1.2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4%
higher about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 4,529
contracts traded, up from 2,084 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest –
the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 235 contracts
to 12,706.
Philippines
Rice Stocks Continue to Decline for Fourth Consecutive Month
Oct 15, 2015
The Philippines rice stocks have
declined for fourth consecutive month in September 2015 after increasing in
April and May, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).
Total rice stocks in the
Philippines as of September 1, 2015 stood at around 1.96 million tons, down
about 12.5% from around 2.24 million tons recorded in August 2015, and up about
31.5% from around 1.49 million tons recorded during the same period last year.
According to the BAS, household
stocks (which account for about 29.2%% of total rice stocks in the country)
stood at around 570,000 tons as of September 1, 2015, down about 5% from
year-ago levels of around 600,000 tons. Commercial warehouse rice stocks (which
account for about 29.7% of total stocks) have reached around 580,000 tons as of
September 1, 2015, up about 32% from their year-ago levels of around 440,000
tons. The rice stocks with the National Food Authority (NFA) (which account for
41% of total stocks) stood at around 800,000 tons, up about 78% from around
450,000 tons recorded in September 2014.
Month-on-month, household rice
stocks are down about 22%, commercial warehouse rice stocks are down about 19%
and NFA rice stocks - in which about 91.8% are imported rice - are up about
1.2%, according to the BAS.
The BAS says that the Philippines'
rice stocks as of September 1, 2015 are enough to last for 58 days (household
and commercial stocks are enough for17 days each and stocks with NFA are enough
for 24 days).
USDA
Grants $555,000 to Boost Organic Rice Production in U.S.
Oct 15, 2015
The USDA's Organic Agriculture
Research and Extension Initiative (OREI) has allocated an grant of $555,000 to
Washington-based The Organic Center to enhance organic rice research and boost
organic rice production in the southern regions of the U.S., according to a
press release.
Researchers from Texas A&M
AgriLife Research & Extension Center at Beaumont, Texas A&M
University's Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, USDA's ARS Dale Bumpers
National Rice Research Center, University of Arkansas Rice Research and
Extension Center, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff Department of
Agriculture will also be involved in the project.
The Organic Center will be
responsible to communicate the findings of the research to the scientific
community, organic rice growers and organic industry members.
The Director of Science Programs
The Organic Center said: "There is a critical need for information
on organic rice systems to help expand production and meet the demand of this
high-value market."
Organic rice producers in the
southern U.S. lack knowledge about tools that support organic rice production
leading to a lacklustre performance. The organic rice acreage has also not
increased significantly over the years due to these reasons. The project will
focus on developing economically viable organic rice production practices for
the Southern U.S. that will allow producers to grow organic rice more
sustainably and profitably.
"Results from this project will
empower growers to make informed choices on inputs that will result in sound
pest management, higher and more consistent yields, improved milling and grain
quality, and enhanced soil quality," said the Chairman of the Board of
Trustees for The Organic Center. "This will help the market for
domestically produced organic rice to continue to expand, and will sustain
rural communities in areas where conventional rice acreage has been
decreasing," he added.
Thailand,
Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asian Quotes
Remain Unchanged
Oct 15, 2015
Thailand rice sellers increased
their quotes for 100% rice, 5% broken rice, parboiled rice and Hom Mali rice
varieties by about $5 per ton each to around $370 - $380 per ton, $360 - $370
per ton, $365 - $375 per ton and $820 - $830 per ton respectively. Vietnam rice
sellers increased quotes for 5% broken rice and 15% broken rice varieties by
about $5 per ton each to around $355 - $365 per ton and $345 - $355 per ton
respectively. Other Asian rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at
around $360 - $370 per ton about $5 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at
around $355 - $365 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365
per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $305 -
$315 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at
around $330 - $340 per ton, about 5% discount on Vietnam 25% rice shown at
around $335- $345 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $315 - $325
per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $280 -
$290 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is
indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $335- $345 per ton, about $70 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled
rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around
$305 - $315 per ton, at par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305
- $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per
ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around
$275 - $285 per ton
Global Rice
Quotes
October 16th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 370-380
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 ↔
India 5% broken 350-360
↓
Pakistan 5% broken 305-315
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 415-425 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 490-510
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 330-340 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 335-345 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 280-290 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 400-410
↔
India
25% broken 325-335 ↑
U.S.
15% broken 500-510 ↔
Long
grain parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 365-375 ↔
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 335-345
↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 590-610 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long
grain fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 820-830 ↔
Vietnam
Jasmine 465-475 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 830-840 ↔
Brokens
Thailand
A1 Super 305-315 ↔
Vietnam
100% broken 305-315 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔
Cambodia
A1 Super 355-365 ↔
India
100% broken stxd 290-300 ↓
Egypt
medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S.
pet food 330-340 ↔
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Contents have been published with permission of ORYZA.com
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