Tuesday, November 10, 2015

10th November,2015 Daily Exclusvie ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Malaysia May Not Join TPP Due to GI Obligations, Says Trade Minister

Nov 09, 2015

Malaysia may not ratify the final Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement due to the TPP obligations on geographical indications (GI), the Malaysian Trade Minister was quoted as saying.
In a side letter to the U.S., the Minister noted that "Malaysia will comply with the object and purpose of the procedural disciplines that apply to GIs recognized under other international agreements even after the TPP is signed." He also noted that the government is keen on publishing a GI application though it can also reject it based on stakeholder opposition.
The Minister also noted that signing of the final Agreement means that they cannot resort to acts, which would defeat the object and purpose of the TPP. The letter is understood to send signals that Malaysia may not join the TPP on these grounds.
It is understood that the governments of Chile, Mexico and Vietnam have indicated to the U.S. that "they will honour the procedural disciplines on GIs recognized under international agreements from the time the TPP is signed until it enters into force for them."

EU Imports from Asian LDCs Decline About 7% y/y in First Two Months of 2015-16

Nov 09, 2015

The European Union's (EU) rice imports from the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) of Asia such as Cambodia and Myanmar under the Everything But Arms (EBA) Agreement have reached around 42,916 tons in the first two months of the crop year 2015-16(September 2015 - August 2016), down about 7% from around 45,975 tons imported during the same period last year, according to data from the European Commission (EC).
The EC data shows that imports from Cambodia (which account for about 81% of total imports from Asian LDCs in September – October 2015) declined about 4% to around 34,880 tons from around 36,297 tons during the same period last year. On the other hand, rice imports from Myanmar (which account for about 17% of total imports from Asian LDCs in the first two months of 2015) have declined about 15% to around 7,387 tons from around 8,677 tons during the same period last year.
Decline of EU rice imports from Myanmar is more pronounced due to the temporary ban imposed by the Myanmar government on rice exports following the occurrence of floods in the northern part of the country. The government lifted the ban in mid-September 2015. 

Vietnam, Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Quotes Remain Unchanged

Nov 09, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers have increased their quotes for jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $470 - $480 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers have increased their quotes for 5% broken, 25% broken and 100% broken rice varieties by about $5 per ton each to around $320 - $330 per ton, $290 - $300 per ton and $280 - $295 per ton respectively.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton about $20 per ton discount on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $320 - $330 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.
Parboiled Rice            
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.      
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $285 - $295 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.

Argentina Rice Sector Faces Challenges Amid Low Global Prices and High Domestic Costs, Says USDA Post

Nov 09, 2015
The USDA Post reports that Argentina's local rice sector is facing problems due to slow export sales as well as high domestic costs. They are not able to compete internationally due to these reasons, it says.
Meanwhile, beginning stocks from MY 2014-15 (April 2015 - March 2016) are high at around 2.49 million tons but the pace of exports is very less due to lower shipments to Iraq, according to the Post. Exporters are reportedly waiting for Iraq to open bids in November.
Amid these concerns, the Post expects Argentina's MY 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 1.491 million tons, down from around 1.58 million tons in the previous year and down from USDA's official estimates of around 1.56 million tons. The Post is expecting Argentina to export 450,000 tons of rice in 2015, down from 465,000 tons in 2014.
Despite expected lower returns, most of the rice producers have reportedly completed planting for the 2015-16 crop with an expectation that the government would introduce some policy changes that would bring profitability to the sector.

Government of Nigeria Seeks to Attain Rice Self-Sufficiency in Two Years

Nov 09, 2015

The government of Nigeria is aiming to attain self-sufficiency in rice production in the next two years and stop imports, Reuters quoted a policy document by the President's Office.
The agriculture section of the document, which was reportedly circulated among the Minsters on the last weekend, stated that the government aims to achieve 'self-sufficiency in rice production in 24 months' and 'self-sufficiency in wheat production in 26 months'. It also calls for 'market guarantee for farm produce'.
Recently, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also restricted foreign exchange to importers of 41 categories of items, including rice, to stop the depreciation of naira against the U.S. dollar. The CBN Governor emphasized that the Central Bank would not support the importation of items such as rice, which have a huge potential to be grown locally.
Earlier, the Nigerian government had targeted to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production and end imports by 2015. In that direction, the government launched the Agriculture Transformation Agenda (ATA) in 2012 and raised import duties on polished and milled rice to 40% and 110% respectively. But high rice import tariffs have led to informal cross-border imports from neighboring coastal countries. In order to reduce rice smuggling, the government has lowered import duties on polished and milled rice to 30% and 70% respectively in July 2014.
Nigeria is the world's second largest importer of rice and imports over half of its annual rice consumption demand. Nigeria produced around 2.9 million tons in 2014, about 52% higher than around 1.9 million tons produced in 2013.
USDA estimates Nigeria to produce around 2.709 million tons of rice and import around 3 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (October – September) to meet a consumption demand of around 6 million tons.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Sink as Futures Crash; Still No Farmers Selling

Nov 10, 2015

The U.S. cash market was materially weaker today despite limited sell interest from farmers as both bids and offers from resellers dropped with the futures market.
Analysts insist that export demand will need to pick up if we are to see higher prices this marketing year and this break in prices might just be what the market needs to get more rice moved.

Vietnam Rice Exports Increase Sharply in October 2015 on Increased Demand from Philippines, Indonesia

Nov 09, 2015
Vietnam rice exports, which have been sluggish for the last three months, have increased sharply in October 2015 following increased demand from the Philippines and Indonesia. However, the total rice exports are still lagging behind last year, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA)
According to the data from the VFA, Vietnam exported about 687,663 tons of rice in October 2015, up about 29% from about 532,267 tons rice exported in September 2015, and up about 20% from about 570,769 tons rice exported in October 2014. The average export price so far in October stands at about $391.9 per ton, down about 3.5% per ton from a month ago and down about 16% from a year ago.
Vietnam exported about 5.036 million tons of rice in January 1 - October 31, 2015, down about 6% from about 5.374 million tons of rice exported in first ten months of 2014, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). The average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $417.89 per ton (FOB), down about 4% per ton from about $435.6 per ton recorded during same last year.

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tumble as Dollar Strength Leads to Weaker U.S. Grain Prices; Traders Turn their Eyes to Tomorrow's USDA S&D Update

Nov 10, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 38.5 cent per cwt (about $9 per ton) lower at $12.055 per cwt (about $266 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed about 0.1% lower at $8.6625 per bushel; wheat finished about 4.1% lower at $5.0175 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.7% lower at $3.6675 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded sharply lower Monday as investors weighed a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The odds of the Fed raising rates for the first time in about a decade rose dramatically after the October nonfarm payrolls report — released Friday — showed the U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs. U.S. stocks opened lower and soon proceeded to extend losses, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling over 200 points at its lows.
The S&P 500 held over 1% lower as consumer discretionary fell about 1.5%.Overnight, China said October exports fell 6.9 percent from a year ago, while imports dropped 18.8%, both missing expectations. The major indexes posted a six-week winning streak on Friday, gaining at least 1%.There are no major economic data points due Monday, but Friday will feature October retail sales. Investors also kept an eye in oil, after OPEC said it expected global demand to remain strong next year. European equities closed lower on weak Chinese export data. In Asia, equities in China and Japan rose their highest levels in over two months. The Dow Jones industrial average traded down 198 points, or 1.11%, at 17,711. The S&P 500 traded 22 points lower, or 1.07%, at 2,076, with consumer discretionary leading nine sectors lower and utilities the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded down 61 points, or 1.2%, at 5,086. Gold is trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 0.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.2% lower about  1:45pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were 357 contracts traded, down from 463 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday decreased by 50 contracts to 11,891.
Global Rice Quotes
November 10th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade          360-370           ↔
Vietnam 5% broken    370-380           ↔
India 5% broken         345-355           ↔
Pakistan 5% broken    320-330           ↔
Myanmar 5% broken   405-415           ↔
Cambodia 5% broken             415-425           ↔
U.S. 4% broken           490-510           ↔
Uruguay 5% broken    535-545           ↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540           ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 345-355           ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 355-365           ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 290-300           ↔
Cambodia 25% broken           400-410           ↔
India 25% broken       325-335           ↔
U.S. 15% broken         500-510           ↔

Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd            350-360           ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd    405-415           ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd         340-350           ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken       590-610           ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken    545-555           ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken            NQ      ↔

Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92%          785-795           ↔
Vietnam Jasmine         470-480           ↔
India basmati 2% broken        NQ      ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken   NQ      ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails             830-840           ↔

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super      320-330           ↔
Vietnam 100% broken            330-340           ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd    280-290           ↔
Cambodia A1 Super   355-365           ↔
India 100% broken stxd         285-295           ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ      ↔
U.S. pet food 330-340           ↔
Brazil half grain          NQ      ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com       

USDA Post Forecasts Brazil MY 2015-16 Rice Production to Decline on Lower Yields

Nov 09, 2015
The USDA Post forecasts MY 2015-16 (April 2016 - March 2017) rice production to decline about 10% to around 8 million tons (basia, milled) from an estimated 8.5 million tons in MY 2014-15.The decline can be attributed to incessant rains in the country's main rice producing state of Rio Grande do Sul. Rains have reportedly delayed planting operations, and may lead to lower yields.
The Post reports that the Brazilian rice producers are more cautious about investing in inputs and
technology due to the weakening local currency against the U.S. dollar. These actions could also have an impact on yields, says the Post.
The Post estimates Brazil to export about one million tons of rice in 2015, up 18% from last year. The strong dollar is facilitating exports, says the Post. It estimates Brazil to import about 500,000 tons of rice in 2015. Mercosul partners Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina are the main suppliers of rice imports to Brazil.

South Korea Rice Stocks Increasing on Higher Production, Lower Consumption, Says Ministry

Nov 09, 2015

South Korea's government rice stocks at the end of October 2015 have reached around 1.36 million tons, up about 58% 500,000 tons from around 860,000 tons during the same time last year, and about 70% or about 560,000 tons higher than the requisite level of around 800,000 tons, local sources quoted the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs.
The sharp increase in the country's rice stocks is attributed to the increase in production and a decline in consumption. The Ministry and the National Statistics Office noted on November 8, 2015 that the country's rice production is expected to increase about 0.4% y/y to around 4.258 million tons despite a decline in paddy rice acreage by about 2% y/y. The increase is due to an expected increase in yield per hectare to around 5.33 tons from last year's 5.2 tons per hectare.

Meanwhile, the country's per capital rice consumption has declined about 19% to around 65.1 kilograms in 2014 from around 80.7 kilograms in 2005, according to the Ministry.The government is concerned that rising rice inventory levels may lead to higher maintenance costs. According to the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI), it costs 31.6 billion won (around $27.36 million) annually to store and maintain 100,000 tons of rice stocks. "Although we are doing everything we can including nurturing of rice processing industries, development of export destinations, and looking for foreign assistance programs including that to North Korea, these measures are simply not enough to exhaust the huge stock of rice," a government official was quoted.The government is planning to come up with a long-term plan, by this year-end, to cut down rice output and thereby stocks from next year onwards.

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