India Rice Export Earnings Decline Sharply in First Six Months of FY
2015-16 Despite Increase in Tonnage
Nov 16, 2015
India's rice export
earnings have declined to around $3.17 billion in the first six months of FY
2015-16 (April - September), down about 17% from around $3.8 billion during the
same period in FY 2014-15, according to data from the Agricultural and
Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).
The earnings have
declined despite an increase in export tonnage by about 5% to around 5.53
million tons in the six-month period from around 5.27 million tons last year
due to a sharp decline in average export prices, according to the APEDA.
Average basmati rice export prices declined by about 35% to around $920 per ton
during the six-month period from around $1,406 per ton last year. On the other
hand, average non-basmati rice prices declined to around $364 per ton in
April-September 2015 period from around $415 per ton last year.
India exported around
2.08 million tons of basmati rice in April-September 2015 period, up about 27%
from around 1.64 million tons exported during the same period last year. The
sub-continent exported around 3.44 million tons of non-basmati rice in the
six-month period, down about 5% from around 3.64 million tons last year. The
decline in non-basmati rice exports can be attributed to a stiff competition
with Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.
Earnings from basmati
rice exports have declined to around $1.9 billion in April-September 2015
period from around $2.3 billion during the same period last year. Earnings from
non-basmati rice exports have declined to around $1.25 billion in
April-September 2015 period from around $1.51 billion during the same period
last year.
Asia Rice Quotes Mixed Today
Nov 16, 2015
Thailand rice sellers have lowered their quotes for 100% B, 5%
broken rice, fragrant A1 Super rice, parboiled rice and glutinous rice
varieties by $5 per ton to around $360 - $370 per ton, $350 - $360 per ton,
$335 - $345 per ton, $350 - $360 per ton and $705 - $715 per ton today. Vietnam
rice sellers increased their quotes for 15% broken rice variety and
jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $365 - $375 per ton and $465 - $475
per ton today. They lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per
ton to around $330 - $340 per ton. India rice sellers lowered
their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $335 - $345 per
ton. Other rice quotes remain unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton about $20 per ton discount on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at
around $345 - $355 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown
at around $315 - $325 per ton.
25% Broken
Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at
around $325 - $335 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $70 per ton discount to Pakistan
parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice,
A1 Super is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per ton discount
to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $285 - $295 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on
Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue
to Tumble as Market Faces Slack Demand
Nov 17, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures
for Jan delivery settled 30.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) lower at $11.840
per cwt (about $261 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed
results; Soybeans closed about 0.5% higher at $8.5950 per bushel; wheat
finished about 0.5% lower at $4.9550 per bushel, and corn finished the day
about 0.3% higher at $3.6675 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded
higher Monday, helped by some gains in defensive sectors, following terror
attacks in Paris over the weekend. European stocks held mostly higher after a
series of coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris late Friday left more than a
100 dead and hundreds injured. The Islamist militant group that calls itself
"Islamic State" (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the attacks. France
responded over the weekend by launching air strikes against IS targets in
Syria. On Friday, U.S. stocks closed more than 1% lower to post their worst
week since August, pressured by a continued decline in oil prices and soft
reports on the health of the consumer. No other major economic data is due
Monday. The key report for the week is the Federal Reserve meeting minutes due
out Wednesday. Overnight, Asian stocks closed mostly lower, with
tourism-related names among the worst performers as the Paris attacks weighed
on sentiment. The Hang Seng and Nikkei both closed down more than 1%, while the
Shanghai composite ended about 0.7% higher. Japanese government data released
overnight showed the world's third-largest economy shrank for a second
consecutive quarter, a technical recession. In early afternoon trade, the Dow
Jones industrial average gained 147 points, or 0.86%, to 17,391. The S&P
500 gained 16 points, or 0.83%, to 2,039, with energy leading all sectors
higher. The Nasdaq traded up 20 points, or 0.41%, to 4,947. Gold is seen
trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3% higher, and the
U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% higher about 1:15pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were 985
contracts traded, up from 656 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the
number of contracts outstanding – on Friday decreased by 30 contracts to
12,413.
Thailand to Begin Sale of Rotten Rice Stocks from End of November 2015
Nov 16, 2015
The government of Thailand
is to begin sale of about 2 million tons of rotten rice from stockpiles from
the end of November 2015, according to Reuters.
"Within this week
the foreign trade department at the ministry will announce the terms for
selling the ruined rice," the Commerce Ministry's Permanent Secretary was
quoted.
The Ministry is
planning to begin the auctions in lots of between 1,000 and 6,000 tons,
according to the official. Interested buyers can reportedly inspect the stocks
and submit their bids by the end of this month.
Thailand holds about
13 million tons of rice stocks, of which about 6 million tons are
"below-standard or rotten" and are judged unfit for human
consumption, according to a Commerce Ministry statement. These stocks would be
sold for industrial uses as ethanol production.
Analysts are expecting
that the rotten stocks would fetch lesser price than the edible stocks.
The government of
Thailand sold around 4.6 million tons of stockpiled rice raising around 49
billion baht (around $1.4 billion) in the ten auctions conducted since it took
over in May 2014.
The official also noted that the
2015 rice exports would reach 9 million tons, down from the targeted 10 million
tons. She told reporters that it will sign import contract with Indonesia to
sell 500,000 tons, with delivery beginning by the end of this year. She also
noted that the government will sign a contract to sell one million tons of rice
to China next year.
Indian Industry Group Warns of Higher Domestic Rice Prices Ahead on Low
Output, Falling Stocks
Nov 16, 2015
The Associated
Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) has warned that domestic
prices of rice may increase sharply in the coming months due to a likely lower
output from the 2015 kharif rice crop as well as declining stocks in the
Central pool, according to a news release on the ASSOCHAM website.
In the paper,
"Impact of weak/deficient monsoon agricultural production and
prices," the ASSOCHAM states that India's rice production from the current
kharif crop is likely to be as low as 89 million tons (basis, milled) though
the government expects the production to reach about 90.61 million tons due to
severe deficit rains in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
Maharashtra and Karnataka.
It also states that rice
stocks with the government have been steadily declining for the past three
years. Stocks have declined from around 24.59 million tons in 2012 to the
current 17.5 million tons (including unmilled paddy of 3.61 million
tons).
Releasing the paper,
the Secretary General of ASSOCHAM warned that the annual demand of rice for
both exports, public distribution system (PDS), other welfare schemes locally
is increasing and the situation may lead to less availability in the open
market thereby pushing up the prices. He therefore warned the government to
closely to monitor both stocks and prices.
The paper also
suggests that the government should encourage the direct seeded rice (DSR)
method of paddy cultivation to conserve water. Currently, only 10% of the
country's paddy cultivation is under DSR due to limitations in the availability
of suitable equipment for DSR in clay soils, says the study.
According to
government data, India's average domestic rice prices have increased in
November 2015 despite increasing supplies from the on-going kharif rice crop.
They stood at around Rs.2,779 per quintal, up about 7% from around Rs.2,589 per
quintal in October 2015, and up about 6% from their year-ago levels of around
Rs.2,611 per quintal.
Philippines 2015 Paddy Rice Output to Decline 3.54% to 18.3 Million Tons,
Says PSA
Nov 16, 2015
The Philippines 2015
paddy rice output is likely to reach around 18.3 million tons, down about 3.54%
from around 18.97 million tons in 2014, due to extending dry weather conditions
brought about by the El Nino phenomenon and a series of typhoons, Reuters
quoted a report by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
The agency estimates
the country's 2015 fourth quarter paddy output to decline about 1.84% y/y to
around 7.42 million tons. Paddy production in the first nine months of 2015 has
reached around 10.875 million tons, down about 4.7% from around 11.407 million
tons produced during the same period last year, according to the PSA.
The expected paddy
output at around 18.3 million tons is about 9% below the targeted 20.08 million
tons for the year.
However, the PSA is
forecasting paddy output in the first quarter of 2016 to improve and reach
about 4.38 million tons, up about 0.31% from around 4.36 million tons in
2014.
The government, which
has already approved imports of around 500,000 tons for the first quarter of
2016, is planning to import another 1.3 million tons before the end of the
second quarter.
Indonesia Domestic Rice Prices Reach Record High in October 2015 on
Concerns of Low Output, Stocks, Says FAO
Nov 16, 2015
Average prices of medium
quality rice in Indonesia have reached to record Rp 10.414 million (around
$750) per ton on concerns of lower paddy output this year and consequent lower
stocks, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Increase in prices can
also attributed to the slow planting progress of the 2015-16 main season crop
(September – April), which started in October and continues till December 2015.
Planting has been reportedly delayed due to below-average rains in early
October. The final outcome of the 2016 rice harvest will largely depend on the
availability of water supplies for irrigation for the current main and
forthcoming off-season, as approximately 85% of total rice area is irrigated,
says the FAO.
Meanwhile, harvesting
of the 2015 off-season crop (mid-March – mid-October) will continue till
December. Prolonged dry weather between May and September in many rice-growing
areas have reportedly delayed planting operations and caused yield reductions.
The FAO forecasts 2015 aggregate paddy production at around 73 million tons,
down about 2.6 million tons from its previous forecast. But the estimated
production is about 3% higher than the 70.846 million tons produced in 2014.
The increase is attributed to the record 2015 main harvest, gathered earlier in
the year.
The FAO forecasts
2015-16 (April - March) rice imports at around 1.3 million tons due to
uncertainty over the output of the 2016 main season crop.
Global Rice Quotes
November 17th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 360-370
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 370-380
↔
India 5% broken 345-355
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 315-325
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 405-415
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 415-425
↔
U.S. 4% broken 490-510
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 535-545
↔
Argentina 5% broken 530-540
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 345-355
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 355-365
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 290-300
↔
Cambodia 25% broken 400-410
↔
India 25% broken 325-335
↔
U.S. 15% broken 500-510
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 350-360 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 335-345 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 590-610
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 725-735
↓
Vietnam Jasmine 450-460
↓
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 325-335
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 355-365
↔
India 100% broken stxd 285-295
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 330-340 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
News ares shared with written permission of ORYZA.com with Thanks
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