6th November,2014 Daily Exclusive ORYZ Rice -Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

India Average Wholesale Rice Prices Decline in October 2015 as Kharif Harvest Begins

Nov 05, 2015

India average wholesale rice prices declined in October 2015 after increasing for two consecutive months. The decline can be attributed to increasing supplies from the on-going kharif (June - December) rice crop harvest.

Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India declined to around Rs.2,588.89 per quintal in October 2015, down about 4% from around Rs.2, 696 per quintal in September 2015, and down about 7.5% from their year-ago levels of around Rs.2,801 per quintal.

In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $399 per ton (using current exchange rates) in October 2015, down about 2% from around $408 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in September 2015, and down about 13% from around $458 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in October 2014.     

Analysts are expecting India’s average prices to increase if India’s production is dampened by intensifying El Nino weather pattern, which is likely to cause drought conditions in Asia. India received about 16% below normal rains during the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season (June-September), according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

The government of India has forecasted the 2015-16 kharif (June - December) rice production at around 90.6 million tons, slightly down from around 90.86 million tons in 2014-15.

Global Rice Quotes

November 6th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade          360-370           ↔

Vietnam 5% broken    370-380           ↔

India 5% broken         345-355           ↔

Pakistan 5% broken    315-325           ↔

Myanmar 5% broken   415-425           ↔

Cambodia 5% broken             415-425           ↔

U.S. 4% broken           490-510           ↔

Uruguay 5% broken    535-545           ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540           ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 345-355           ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 355-365           ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 285-295           ↔

Cambodia 25% broken           400-410           ↔

India 25% broken       325-335           ↔

U.S. 15% broken         500-510           ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd            350-360           ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd    405-415           ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd         340-350           ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken       590-610           ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken    545-555           ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken            NQ      ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%          785-795           ↔

Vietnam Jasmine         465-475           ↓

India basmati 2% broken        NQ      ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken   NQ      ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails             830-840           ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super      320-330           ↔

Vietnam 100% broken            330-340           ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd    275-285           ↔

Cambodia A1 Super   355-365           ↔

India 100% broken stxd         285-295           ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ      ↔

U.S. pet food 330-340           ↔

Brazil half grain          NQ      ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza CBOT Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Finish the Day a Touch Higher as Rally Cools Following Yesterday’s Surge Higher

Nov 06, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22 per ton) higher at $12.455 per cwt (about $275 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly lower; Soybeans closed about 2.3% lower at $8.6400 per bushel; wheat finished unchanged at $5.2625 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.6% lower at $3.7450 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded in a range Thursday, trying to hold the upward trend for the month so far, ahead of Friday's key jobs report. Ahead of Friday's report on October nonfarm payrolls, weekly jobless claims came in at 276,000, above expectations. Third-quarter productivity increased at a 1.6% annual rate, while labor costs rose 1.4%. U.S. layoffs fell 14% in October from the prior month, a 1.3% decrease year-over-year, according to Challenger.

China's Shanghai composite closed nearly 2% higher Thursday, bringing the index more than 20% above its recent low touched on Aug. 26. The composite remains more than 30% below its 52-week high hit in June. The Nikkei closed 1% higher. European stocks pared gains to close mixed, after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged. The German DAX outperformed. Investors will also eye more comments from Fed policymakers. Gold is trading about 0.1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher about  1:00pm Chicago time.

Wednesday, there were 1,001 contracts traded, up from 812 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 54 contracts to 12,174.

Indonesia to Import 1.5 Million Tons of Rice by March 2016, Says Bulog Official

Nov 05, 2015

Indonesia has decided to import 1.5 million tons of rice from Vietnam and Thailand before March 2016 to replenish the stocks amid , Bloomberg quoted the Director of the state logistics agency Bulog.

The government reached an agreement with Vietnam to import one million tons of rice, including 750,000 tons of 15% broken rice and 250,000 tons of 5% broken rice, according to the official.

He also noted that the government would import another 500,000 tons of rice from Thailand. However, price and other technical issues need to be sorted out with the Thai government, he said.

The official also noted that the government is in talks with other countries such as Cambodia and Myanmar for government-to-government (G2G) import deals.

The Indonesian statistics agency has lowered its estimates for the country's 2015 paddy rice production to around 74.99 million tons, slightly below the estimated 75.55 million tons. It is understood that the current estimates do not account for the El Nino impact on the rice production. If the impact of El Nino is considered, it is likely that the production may be much below the estimates.

The Bulog needs to maintain about 2 million tons of rice at the end of the year. Currently the stocks stand at around 1.5 million tons.

The President has been keen on achieving self-sufficiency in rice production and avoid imports this year. However, the extending dry conditions and falling stocks are reportedly prompting the government to import rice. Analysts have been predicting Indonesia to import around 1.6 million tons of rice this year.

European Parliament to Reject EC's Trade Proposal on GMOs; EU Food and Feed Partners Hail the Decision

Nov 05, 2015

The European Parliament has decided to reject the European Commission's trade proposal to allow EU Member States to opt-out from authorised Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) for food and feed uses.

The EU Food and Feed Chain partners, who are opposing the EC stance, have welcomed the decision. They have been calling on the EU Commission to withdraw its proposal since allowing Member States to impose national bans on EU-approved GMOs would contradict the core principles of the EU’s internal market.

They noted that the EC would be setting a dangerous precedent by allowing scientific findings on the safety of products be overruled by non-science-based restrictions to the free movement of goods. The dismantlement of the single market will destabilise the balance of the EU commodities market and would negatively impact the EU budget, they said.

They also noted that the EC's trade proposal would result in substantial commercial and legal risks for operators, condemning them to overly high costs and undue trade disruptions.   

The EU Food and Feed partners are urging the EC to provide a platform for encouraging the development of innovative products for the benefit of the consumers. They have called for a dedicated debate to address the relevant issues involving biotechnology and GMOs.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Hold Steady As Trade Remains Muted

Nov 06, 2015

The U.S. cash market was quiet and unchanged today as everyone in the industry seems to be prepared to wait until next year to begin trading again.

Analyst contend that the dynamics of the market remain the same; farmers need higher prices to break even while buyers insist that there will need to be great demand there to justify higher prices, however, if Iraq, Iran, or Venezuela come in and buy then farmers may get the price they are looking for.

In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week that ended on October 29^th, totaled 81,400 tons, a decrease of 28% from the previous week but 27% higher than the prior 4-week average.

Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 20,500 ton to Mexico, 18,600 tons to Haiti, and 16,900 tons to Colombia, 10,100 tons to unknown destinations, and 6,100 tons to Taiwan.

U.S. rice exporters shipped 45,500 tons, a decrease of 42% from the previous week and 39% lower than the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 26,500 tons to Mexico, 12,100 tons to Japan, 2,500 tons to Canada, 1,400 tons to South Korea, and 1,100 tons to Jordan.

FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines for Fourteenth Consecutive Month

Nov 05, 2015

The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 199 points in October 2015, down about 3% from around 206 points in September 2015 as most of the sub-indices declined during the month. The FAO index has been declining continuously since September 2014. It declined about 15.4% during the one-year period. The FAO index value in October 2015 is the lowest since June 2010.

According to the FAO, the Lower Quality Indica sub-index declined by about one point to around 175 points. The Aromatic sub-index declined about 8% to around 154 points and the Japonica sub-index declined by about 5% to around 252 points. However, the Higher Quality sub-index increased by about 2 points to around 179 points.

In January - October 2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 213 points, down about 9.8% from around 236 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher quality Indica rice prices declined about 11.5% y/y and sub-index for lower quality Indica rice prices declined about 8.8% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub-index declined about 32% y/y. However, sub-index for Japonica rice prices increased about 2.2% y/y.

According to the FAO, rice quotations in Thailand as well as in Vietnam increased during the month due to increased demand from Indonesia and the Philippines. However, quotations in India and Pakistan declined due to the arrival of the newly harvested crops.  Prices in the Americas were stable to lower, especially in Argentina and Uruguay, according to the FAO.

During September 2015, average rice export quotations of Thai 100% broken rice, Thai parboiled rice, Thai 5% rice, Thai 25% rice, Thai Fragrant rice and Thai A1 Super rice increased to around $376 per ton, $373 per ton, $368 per ton, $358 per ton, $984 per ton and $323 per ton respectively. Export prices of  Vietnam 25% broken rice increased to around $332 per ton.

Quotations of India 25% broken rice and Pakistan 25% broken rice declined to around $312 per ton and $286 per ton respectively. While U.S. 4% broken rice variety increased to around $497 per ton, U.S. California 4% rice declined to around $837 per ton. Uruguay 5% rice remained unchanged at around $510 per ton.