Oryza Weekly: Fresh Demand from Philippines, Persisting El Nino Concerns
Support Global Rice Prices
Dec 12, 2015
The Oryza White Rice
Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the
week at about $391 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $3 per ton
from a month ago and down about $45 per ton from a year ago.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, down about $5 per ton each from a
week and a month ago, and down about $55 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA Post
forecasts sluggish Thai rice exports until the first quarter of 2016, despite
an improvement in exports in October 2015, when Thailand exported about 1.2
million tons.
The governments of
Thailand and China may soon sign a new deal for Thailand to
export another one million tons of rice to China in 2016. This deal is
part of a 2 million ton rice MoU signed by the two governments in December
2014.
Thai rice exporters
are planning to purchase an additional 100,000 tons of Hom Mali rice as part of
joint efforts by the government and the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA)
to stabilize prices
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week and month ago, and
down about $20 per ton from a year ago.
Vietnam exported about
5.807 million tons of rice in the first eleven months of 2015, down about 1%
from the first eleven months of 2014. The average rice export price so
far this year is about $408.30 per ton (FOB), down about 6.8% from the same
time last year.
Cambodia
Cambodia 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $420 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month
ago, and down about $45 per ton from a year ago.
Cambodia has failed to
reach its self-imposed target of exporting one million tons of rice by 2015 due
to inadequate milling and storage facilities and poor access to finance.
Rice exporters in
Cambodia are seeking government support to face increasing competition from
neighboring countries such as Myanmar, Thailand, and India.
Myanmar 5% broken rice is today shown at about $415 per ton, up
about $5 per ton from a week and a month ago.
India
India 5% broken rice
is today shown at about $350 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago,
and down about $50 per ton from a year
ago.
Wholesale Indian
basmati rice prices have declined this month, partially reversing the advance
seen in late November, due to high supplies and sluggish demand.
The USDA Post
estimates India’s 2015 rice exports at a record 11.5 million tons, up from
10.91 million tons in 2014, based on the exports pace until September
2015. It estimates MY 2014-15 (October-September) exports at 11.87
million tons.
India’s rice stocks in
the central pool as of December 1 stood at around 11.315 million tons, down
about 48% from the same period last year.
The Chennai-based
Intellectual Property Appellate Board, which is dealing with India’s basmati
Geographical Indications tag application, will likely issue a final
notification in a week or so. Pakistan has been opposing India’s
application for GI tag as a part of Indo-Gangetic plan (Punjab province) falls
within its territory.
India 2015-16 winter
rice (November - May) planting area has reached around 0.1094 million tons,
down about 15% from around 0.1285 million tons planted during the same period
in 2014-15.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken
rice is today shown at about $335 per ton, up about $10 per ton each from a
week and a month ago, and down about $40 per ton from a year ago.
The governments of Indonesia
and Pakistan have signed a MoU to import around one million tons of white rice
from Pakistan to Indonesia between 2016-19.
Central &
South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged
from a week and a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.
Rice stocks in Brazil
stood at around 118,250 tons in November, down about 3% from October and down
about 71% from November 2014, according to Conab.
Conab estimates
Brazil’s 2015-16 paddy rice production will decline about 6% y/y, to around
11.733 million tons. The decline is largely attributed to a reduction in
acreage and yields.
Five per cent broken
rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $520
per ton, down about $15 from a week ago, unchanged from a month ago and down
about $80 per ton from a year ago.
The government of Guyana
hopes to finalize a rice export deal with Mexico within the next five weeks.
In the recent
elections, Venezuelans have given a historic victory to the
opposition coalition, the Democratic Unity alliance (MUD), ending the
seventeen-year rule by the United Socialist Party, founded by late Hugo Chavez
in 1999. Venezuela is currently facing severe economic problems, including very
high inflation and unemployment rates, low growth rate and weakening currency.
Spiraling commodity prices and shortages of basic products are understood to
have acted negatively on the ruling party.
U.S.
The U.S. 4% broken
rice is today shown at about $485 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week
ago, down about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $60 per ton from a
year ago.
Chicago rough rice
futures for January delivery dropped early in the week, reaching a low of $10.760
per cwt (about $237 per ton) on Tuesday, but regained some ground to reach a
high of $11.225 per cwt (about $247 per ton) on Friday before closing at
$11.015 per cwt (about $243 per ton).
The USDA, in its
December World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates report, estimates the
U.S. all rice imports at around 1.11 million tons, down from its last month’s
forecast, based on slower-than-expected import pace for long-grain rice.
Despite this decrease, 2015-16 all rice imports are slightly above the imports
from 2014-15 due to expected lower production.
Other Markets
Current rice stocks in
Indonesia stand at around 1.5 million tons, including supplies
from imports.
Paddy rice output in China
for 2015 increased slightly y/y to around 208.3 million tons.
The government of Bangladesh
has doubled the duty on rice imports to 20% from the current 10% as part of its
efforts to curb increasing rice imports from India as well as to protect the
interests of local farmers.
The Department of
Agriculture and Agrifood in Brunei is promoting the use of
Integrated Pest Management techniques to avoid pest-related yield losses
throughout the country.
South Korea’s state-run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation
has purchased 55,555 tons of non-glutinous brown rice of China and U.S. origins
for delivery between March 31 and April 30, in tenders that closed on December
9.
The government of the Philippines
will import an additional 300,000-400,000 tons of rice in the second quarter of
2016 to ensure adequate stocks amid concerns of extending dry conditions
because of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
According to the
latest data issued by the European Union (EU), rice imports,
milled equivalent by the EU increased sharply since the beginning of the crop
year 2015-16 (September 1, 2015 - August 31, 2016). The EU imported about
278,474 tons of rice during the period September 1 - December 1, 2015, up about
20% from around 231,429 tons imported during the same period last year.
The EU’s
rice imports from the Least Developed Countries of Asia such as Cambodia and
Myanmar under the Everything But Arms Agreement have reached around 80,794 tons
in the first two months of the crop year 2015-16, up about 23% from the same
period last year.
Ente Nazionale Risi
estimates Italy’s total rice imports in CY 2015-16
(September-August) at around 152,000 tons, up about 17% from in CY 2014-15,
despite higher domestic production.
The UN’s FAO forecasts
Mali’s 2015 paddy rice production at around 2.451 million
tons, up about 13% from in 2014. The increase is attributed to good
rainfall, increased planting area, and the use of selected seeds.
The Crop Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG) has developed a new high yielding and
drought resistant rice variety, called AGRA, as part of its efforts to increase
crop yields and boost production.
Wholesale Basmati Rice Prices in India Increase Slightly on Restricted
Supplies
Dec 11, 2015
Wholesale basmati rice
prices in India's capital, have increased today due to restricted supplies from
rice producers and higher demand from traders, according to the Press Trust of
India (PTI).Prices of Pusa 1121 declined to around Rs.4,600 - 5,400 per quintal
(around $690 - $810 per ton) from previous quotes of around Rs.4,500 - 5,300
per quintal (around $675 - $795 per ton).
However, prices of
common basmati rice today remained unchanged from previous level of around
Rs.6,100 - Rs.6,200 per quintal (around $915 - $930 per ton)."Besides
demand from retailers, restricted supplies from producing regions mainly
attributed rise in rice basmati prices," traders were quoted as saying.
Global
Rice Quotes
December 11th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 355-365
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↔
India 5% broken 345-355
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 330-340 ↔
Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 415-425
↔
U.S. 4% broken 480-490
↓
Uruguay 5% broken 520-530 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 515-525 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 335-345 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 355-365 ↔
Pakistan 25% broken 300-310 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 400-410
↔
India 25% broken 320-330
↔
U.S. 15% broken 500-510
↓
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 345-355
↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350
↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 500-510
↓
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 690-700
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 440-450
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 325-335
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 280-290
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 280-290 ↓
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel,
oryza.com
India Winter Rice Crop Acreage Lags Behind Last Year, Says Agriculture
Ministry
Dec 11, 2015
India 2015-16 winter
rice (November - May) planting area has reached around 0.1094 million tons,
down about 15% from around 0.1285 million tons planted during the same period
in 2014-15,according to a press release by the Ministry of Agriculture.The
decline is due to untimely rains in some of the rice growing regions.In
2014-15, the rabi rice acreage reached around 4 million tons, down about 9%
from around 4.488 million tons in 2013-14.
Asian Rice Quotes Remain Unchanged
Today
Dec 11, 2015
Asian
rice sellers have kept their quotes unchanged today from yesterday.
5%
Broken Rice
Thailand
5% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton about $25 per ton discount
on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is
indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan
5% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
25%
Broken Rice
Thailand
25% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $20 per ton discount
on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is
indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan
25% rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand
parboiled rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton. India parboiled rice
is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to
Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per
ton.
100%
Broken Rice
Thailand
broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per
ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about $5 per
ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per
ton.
Ghana Develops New High Yielding and Drought Resistant Rice Variety
Dec 11, 2015
The
Crop Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG) has developed a new high yielding and
drought resistant rice variety, called AGRA, as part of its efforts to increase
crop yields and boost production, according to local sources."This new
variety will help the farmers to increase their production because of its high
yield," said a Municipal Development Officer at the Department of
Agriculture. He added that this variety is particularly resistant to the
"rice black" disease.
He
also noted that the new variety tastes better than the regular varieties and
will help raise the farmers' standard of living.Ghana imports over a half of
its annual rice consumption demand and the government is planning to increase
rice production by about 20% per annum over the next four years to make Ghana
self-sufficient in rice.Ghana produced around 235,000 tons and imported around
417,000 tons of rice in 2014 to meet a consumption demand of around 750,000
tons, according to sources for the Crop Services Directorate.According to the
USDA, Ghana’s rice production is estimated at about 300,000 tons (milled basis)
in MY 2015-16 (October - September). The U.S. agency expects Ghana to import
550,000 tons of rice in 2015 to meet consumption needs of around 930,000 tons.
Thai Rice Exporters Plan to Buy Additional 100,000 Tons of Hom Mali Rice to
Stabilize Prices
Dec 11, 2015
Thai rice exporters
are planning to purchase an additional 100,000 tons of Hom Mali rice as part of
joint efforts by the government and the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA)
to stabilize prices, according to local sources.Last month, the exporters
agreed to purchase the Hom Mali paddy at a target price of 13,500 baht (around
$375) per ton and Hom Mali milled rice at about 26,000 baht (around $723) per
ton from December 2015 to February 2016. However, since prices have fallen
sharply to around 24,000 baht (around $667) per ton, they have agreed to buy
the additional rice.
The fall in prices is
mainly due to increased supplies from the on-going harvests and relatively high
moisture, according to the exporters.The TREA President noted that the
exporters have decided to spend about 2.4 billion baht (around $67 million) for
the purpose. "The move is aimed to take supply out of the market and raise
Hom Mali rice to the target price of 26,000 baht (around $723) per ton, he
said.Export prices of Thai Hom Mali rice also fell to around $720 per ton
compared to around $800 per ton last year. Depreciation of the baht also
contributed to a fall in export prices, said the TREA President.Thailand is
expected to produce 6.5-7 million tons of Hom Mali paddy or 3 million ton of
milled rice in the 2015-16 season.
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