Tuesday, December 15, 2015

15th December,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Drop Back below $11.000/cwt as Market Lacks Fundamental Support
Dec 15, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 7 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $10.985 per cwt (about $242 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed about 0.3% higher at $8.7600 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.6% higher at $4.9350 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% higher at $3.7900 per bushel.
U.S. stocks closed higher Monday, helped by a pause in the oil price slide amid continued concerns about the high-yield debt market. Investors also awaited the Federal Reserve's rates decision due this week. Both brent and WTI have declined more than 10% since OPEC on Dec. 4 abandoned its output ceiling. OPEC has been pumping near record levels since last year in an attempt to drive higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale firms out of the market. Markets are pricing in a roughly 80 percent chance of a hike on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch tool. On Friday, U.S. stocks closed out a volatile week with sharp losses, as oil hit near-seven-year lows and another corporate merger weighed ahead of the Fed's highly anticipated decision on rates next week. The S&P 500 had its worst week since the middle of August, while the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite had their worst week in a month. European stocks ended sharply lower as low oil prices weighed, with the German DAX off nearly 2%. In Asia, only the Shanghai composite ended higher, up about 2.5% after some encouraging reports on Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. China's yuan continued to edge lower, hitting its lowest in more than four years against the U.S. dollar in onshore trading. In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average traded flat near 17,268. The S&P 500 traded 1 point lower, or 0.06%, at 2,011, with materials leading five sectors lower and telecommunications the greatest advancer. The Nasdaq composite declined 4 points, or 0.08%, at 4,929. Gold is seen trading about 1.1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.7% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher at about  3:15pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were 2,072 contracts traded, up from 658 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 44 contracts to 15,044.
Thai Commerce Ministry Forecasts Lower Rice Exports in 2016 Due to Drought
Dec 14, 2015

The Thai Commerce Ministry is expecting the country to export around 9 million tons of rice in 2016, down from an estimated 10 million tons in 2015, according to Reuters.
The Ministry sources told reported that the drought conditions, which impacted several rice-growing regions this year, are likely to lower the output next year.
"It is expected that output will fall due to the impact of drought," a Ministry statement was quoted.
The Ministry is reportedly estimating export earnings to decline to around $4.79 billion, down from an estimated $4.86 billion this year.
Thailand exported around 7.814 million tons of rice in the first ten months of 2015, down about 11% from around 8.77 million tons exported during the same period last year, according to data from Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA).

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Cash Prices Slip Slightly; Neither Buyers nor Sellers Impressed by Prices
Dec 15, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker today although there was little trading to report as most buyers and sellers remain at odds on prices
Analysts note that sellers with crop left to market continue to wait for higher prices while buyers insist that greater export demand will be needed to justify the prices sellers are hoping to receive.
A firm dollar and softer crude oil prices will likely keep a lid on prices as Iraq and Venezuela, both key export markets, depend on oil revenue to support their purchases.
Philippines May Finalize Additional Rice Imports Before Year End, Says NFA Official
Dec 14, 2015

The Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) is planning to finalize the volume and timing of the additional rice imports, Reuters quoted the NFA Administrator.
"It will be finalised within the year and contracted in January,” the official was quoted.
Last week, Presidential Communications Secretary noted that the National Food Authority (NFA) Council and the Cabinet Task Force on El Nino have agreed for importing an additional 300,000 - 400,000 tons of rice in the second quarter of 2016. The additional imports are to ensure adequate stocks amid concerns of extending dry conditions, he said.
The new imports are above the already imported 500,000 tons from Vietnam and Thailand, which are expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2016.
The Philippines imported around 1.8 million tons of rice in 2015.
Global Rice Quotes
December 14th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 350-360
Vietnam 5% broken 370-380
India 5% broken 355-365
Pakistan 5% broken 330-340
Myanmar 5% broken 410-420
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435
U.S. 4% broken 480-490
Uruguay 5% broken 520-530
Argentina 5% broken 515-525
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 335-345
Vietnam 25% broken 355-365
Pakistan 25% broken 300-310
Cambodia 25% broken 400-410
India 25% broken 325-335
U.S. 15% broken 500-510
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 345-355
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 350-360
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 500-510
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 690-700
Vietnam Jasmine 450-460
India basmati 2% broken NQ
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 320-330
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295
Cambodia A1 Super 355-365
India 100% broken stxd 280-290
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
U.S. pet food 280-290
Brazil half grain NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com


USDA Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade to Decline 2% y/y to 42.4 Million Tons
Dec 14, 2015

In its December Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 42.4 million tons, down about 900,000 tons from an estimated 43.3 million tons in 2014, and down about 100,000 tons from last month's forecast of around 42.5 million tons.
On the exports side, the USDA forecasts declines in exports of Uruguay, Australia and Peru. The USDA raised its forecasts of Vietnam. On the imports side, the USDA lowered prospects for Nigeria, Brazil and Madagascar based on the trade data.

The USDA estimates global rice trade in 2016 at around 41.3 million tons, down about 600,000 tons from last month's forecast of 41.9 million tons and about 1.1 million tons from around 42.4 million tons in 2015. It lowered 2016 export prospects for Australia, Myanmar, Cambodia the U.S., but increased forecasts for Thailand, Pakistan, South America and Egypt. But the USDA says the declines are not fully offset by increased exports from Egypt, Pakistan, South America, Thailand and Vietnam. It lowered 2016 import forecasts for Nigeria, Bangladesh and the U.S., but the decline is expected to be partially offset by increased forecasts for Madagascar and Laos.
USDA Forecasts 2015-16 Global Rice Production to Decline on Lower Acreage and Yields
Dec 14, 2015

In its December 2015 Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice production (milled basis) at around 469.3 million tons, down about 2% from last year due to an expected decline in acreage as well as decline in average yields, which are likely to be affected by adverse weather conditions. The USDA's projection is down from last month's projection of around 473.5 million tons. South and Southeast Asia and North America account for most of the expected global rice production decline in 2015-16, according to USDA.
The USDA lowered 2015-16 production prospects for India, Australia, Madagascar and the Philippines. However, the USDA says the production declines in these countries will be partially offset by increases in Argentina and South Korea.
The USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage at 158.8  million hectares, down from an estimated 159.95 million hectares in 2014-15, and down from its previous month's estimate of about 159.2 million tons. Thailand is accounting for more than half of the decline, says USDA. While acreage in Australia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Nigeria, Tanzania, the Philippines and the U.S. is expected to decline, that in Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia and Sri Lanka is expected to increase. The USDA forecasts the average global yield at 4.41 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), slightly down from 4.46 tons per hectare in 2014-15.
The USDA estimates 2015-16 global rice consumption and residual use at around 484.6 million tons, up about 2.6 million tons from last year, and down about 1.6 million tons from last month's forecast of around 486.2 million tons. China is accounting for bulk of the projected increase in global rice consumption in 2015-16, according to the USDA. It forecasts consumption to increase in Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines. On the other hand, it forecasts consumption to decline in South Korea and the U.S.
Consumption is projected to exceed production for the third consecutive year, says the USDA. Accordingly, the U.S. agency estimates 2015-16 global rice ending stocks to decline by about 15% y/y to around 88.4 million tons, and down about 2.6 million tons from last month's forecast of around 91 million tons. India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the U.S. account for the bulk of the projected decline in global ending stocks.  The USDA lowered its forecasts for India, Nigeria, Thailand, and the U.S. These are the lowest global ending stocks since 2007-08, says the USDA.
The USDA forecasts the stock-to-use ratio at 18.2%, down about 21.5% from last year.


Asian Rice Quotes Mixed Today
Dec 14, 2015

Thailand rice sellers have lowered their quotes for 100% B, 5% broken rice and A1 Super rice varieties by about $5 per ton each to around $350 - $360 per ton, $340 - $350 per ton and $320 - $330 per ton respectively today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for jasmine rice variety by about $10 per ton to around $450 - $460 per ton. India rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% rice and parboiled rice varieties by about $5 per ton to around $355 - $365 per ton, $325 - $335 per ton and $350 - $360 per ton respectively. Cambodia rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% rice variety by $10 per ton to around $425 - $435 per ton. Other Asian rice sellers have kept their quotes unchanged today from Friday.

                                 
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton about $30 per ton discount on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $20 per ton discount on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.
Parboiled Rice            
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $55 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.                        
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about $5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
EU Rice Imports Increase Sharply in September 1 - December 8, 2015
Dec 14, 2015

According to the latest data issued by the European Union (EU), rice imports, basis milled, by the EU increased sharply since the beginning of the crop year 2015-16 (September 1, 2015 - August 31, 2016).
The EU imported about 302,125 tons, basis milled, of rice during the period September 1 - December 8, 2015, up about 21% from around 248,995 tons imported during the same period last year.
Japonica rice imports increased about 14.5% to around 22,113 tons in September 1 - December 8, 2015 period from around 19,312 tons during the same period last year. Indica rice imports increased about 22% to around 280,012 tons during the said period from around 228,683 tons last year.
The UK remained the largest importer during the three-month period with around 80,545 tons followed by France (55,718 tons), Netherlands (33,172 tons), Germany (21,888 tons), Poland (20,405 tons), Italy (16,645 tons) and Portugal (14,362 tons). Other EU countries imported 59,390 tons.
During the week ended December 8, 2015, the EU imported around 21,275 tons of rice, up about 29% from around 16,443 tons imported during the week ended December 1, 2015.
The EU imported around 1.143 million tons of rice in the crop year 2014-15, up about 12.7% from around 1.013 million tons imported in the crop year 2013-14.
News have been shared with permission of ORYZA.com

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