18th December 2015 Daily Exclusvie ORYZA Rice e-Newsletter

Asian Rice Quotes Mixed Today

Dec 17, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers have increased their quotes for glutinous rice variety by about $10 per ton to around $710 - $720 per ton today. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice varieties by about $5 per ton each to around $325 - $330 per ton and $280 - $290 per ton respectively. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice variety by about $5 per ton to around $285 - $295 per ton . Other Asian rice sellers have kept their quotes unchanged today from yesterday.                                 

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton about $30 per ton discount on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $20 per ton discount on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton.

Parboiled Rice            

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $55 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.             

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about $5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton

Government of Turkey Announces 2015-16 Paddy Purchase Price

Dec 17, 2015

The government of Turkey has announced the paddy purchasing price for 2015-16 at around TL 1,580 (around $534) per ton, according to local sources.

The Food, Agriculture and Livestock Minister told reporters that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will begin purchases of paddy from farmers from December 17, 2015. The Minister noted that a premium of TL 100 (around $34) per ton over the determined price would be paid to farmers who are registered with the farmer registration system.

Harvesting of rice began in September and prices have been falling since then according to industry sources. Paddy prices dropped from around TL 1,800 in (around $608) per ton in September to around TL 1,300 (around $439) per ton in December, according to some industry sources. They noted that milled rice prices dropped from TL 2,900 (around $980) per ton to around TL 2,500 (around $845) per ton during the period.

Some industry experts hailed the government intervention and noted that it will help farmers to sell their stocks at a decent price. Following intervention, experts are expecting the paddy prices to settle at levels TL 1,700 ($574)- TL 1,800 ($608) per ton within the next few months.

“We hope the prices neither go up nor down a lot. There has to be a balance in order to maintain growers continue production. This would avoid imports. Growers would give up production if they do not make money," an industry expert was quoted.

Harvesting ended on November 7, 2015. Turkey reportedly produced record 920,000 tons of paddy this year, up about 11% from around 830,000 tons in 2014.

Mali 2015-16 Paddy Rice Output Reaches 2.45 Million Tons, Up 13% from Previous Year

Dec 17, 2015

Mali's 2015-16 paddy rice production reached around 2.45 million tons (about 1.59 million tons, basis milled), up about 13% from last year's 2.17 million tons (about 1.41 million tons, basis milled) but short of an initial forecast, Reuters quoted government statistics.

Harvesting of the 2015-16 rice will almost finish this month, according to government sources. However, the remaining harvesting is reportedly unlikely to add significantly to the total paddy output.

"The increase this year is generally explained by good rain, an increase in planted land, new strains like 'Nerica', the use of more fertiliser especially with the help of subsidies," the Head of the Rural Development Ministry's Statistics Division.

Mali is the second largest rice producing nation in Africa after Nigeria, and produces over 85% of the country’s domestic rice demand of about 1.65 million tons.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasted Mali's 2015 2015 paddy rice production at around 2.451 million tons, up about 13% from around 2.167 million tons in 2014.

USDA estimates Mali to produce 2.231 million tons or paddy (about 1.45 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2015-16 (October - September), down from last year's 2.3 million tons (around 1.495 million tons, basis milled). It estimates Mali to import 180,000 tons in 2015 and 200,000 tons of rice in 2016, up from 150,000 tons imported in 2014.

Global Rice Quotes

December 17th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade          350-360           ↔

Vietnam 5% broken    370-380           ↔

India 5% broken         355-365           ↔

Pakistan 5% broken    330-340           ↔

Myanmar 5% broken   410-420           ↔

Cambodia 5% broken             425-435           ↔

U.S. 4% broken           480-490           ↔

Uruguay 5% broken    520-530           ↔

Argentina 5% broken 515-525           ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 335-345           ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 355-365           ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 300-310           ↔

Cambodia 25% broken           400-410           ↔

India 25% broken       325-335           ↓

U.S. 15% broken         500-510           ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd            345-355           ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd    405-415           ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd         350-360           ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken       500-510           ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken    545-555           ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken            NQ      ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%          690-700           ↔

Vietnam Jasmine         450-460           ↔

India basmati 2% broken        NQ      ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken   NQ      ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails             830-840           ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super      320-330           ↔

Vietnam 100% broken            335-345           ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd    285-295           ↓

Cambodia A1 Super   355-365           ↔

India 100% broken stxd         280-290           ↓

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ      ↔

U.S. pet food 280-290           ↔

Brazil half grain          NQ      ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Make Last Minute Surge to Close Back above $11.000/cwt; Grains Trade Higher as Markets Weigh FOMC Rate Height

Dec 18, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 15.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at $11.110 per cwt (about $245 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed about 1.7% higher at $8.7775 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1% higher at $4.8400 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.2% higher at $3.7425 per bushel.

U.S. stocks held lower in choppy trade Thursday as investors eyed oil prices and economic data, after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday made the widely expected move of raising rates. Analysts also noted markets could see some volatility ahead of options expiration Friday. In economic news, the Philly Fed index for December was minus 5.9, the lowest of the year after a positive 1.9 print in November. Leading indicators for November showed a 0.4% rise, with October unrevised, up 0.6%, according to StreetAccount.

 Initial claims came in at 271,000. The U.S. current account deficit in the third quarter increased 11.7% to $124.1 billion, its highest level in nearly seven years, as a strong dollar weighed on exports and the profits of multinational corporations, the Commerce Department said. European stocks ended higher, off session highs, while Asian equities closed higher with the Nikkei up more than 1.5%.In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average traded down 135 points, or 0.77%, at 17,614. The S&P 500 traded down 18 points, or 0.9%, at 2,054, with energy leading nine sectors lower and utilities trying for gains.

The Nasdaq composite traded down 37 points, or 0.74%, at 5,033. Gold is seen trading about 2.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 1.4% higher at about  1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 2,088 contracts traded, up from 1,232 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 338 contracts to 15,635.

European Commission Begins Consultation on CAP Greening Measures

Dec 17, 2015

The European Commission (EC) has launched a consultation on greening measures under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on December 16, 2015 and will be open till March 8, 2016.

The aim of the consultation is to consider the views of professionals and other stakeholders with in-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of greening and to help the EC to review the greening measures. At the time of Reform, the EC agreed to review the rules relating to the Ecological Focus Area after the first year of application. The review will be focused on administrative burden, simplification potential, level playing field and aspects of production potential.

Farmers, Member States' administrations, representative organisations and non-governmental organisations at EU and national level, academics/researchers and interested public are requested to fill an on line questionnaire to send the EC their opinions on this matter.

The greening measures pertain to the environmental sustainability and represent 30% of CAP direct funding. In order to access this payment, farmers must comply with three agricultural practices - crops diversification, permanent pasture, the presence of ecological focus areas - in accordance with the size of their land.

In the case of rice, farms below 30 hectares are considered greening complying the crop is submerged for a part significant of the year or of the cycle crop for more than 75% of total surface; and farms above 30 hectares are considered greening complying only if there are three different crops, and the first two must not exceed 95% of the surface.

Conab Estimates Brazil 2015-16 Paddy Rice Production to Decline About 4% y/y on Low Acreage

Dec 17, 2015

In its December forecasts for rice production, Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has estimates the country's 2015-16 paddy rice production at around 11.921 million tons (around 8.2 million tons, basis milled), down about 4% from an estimated 12.436 million tons (around 8.6 million tons, basis milled) in 2014-15 due to a likely reduction in acreage. However, Conab's production forecast was above its November forecast of around 11.733 million tons (around 8.1 million tons) due to an expected improvement in yields.

Conab estimates Brazil's 2015-16 paddy rice acreage at around 2.207 million hectares, slightly down from around 2.295 million hectares in 2014-15, and down from its November forecast of around 2.289 million hectares.Most of the decline in 2015-16 acreage is expected in the key rice growing Centro-Sul region. Rice acreage in the Centro-Sul region is estimated at around 1.488 million hectares, down from around 1.557 million hectares in 2014-15, and down from around 1.55 million hectares in November 2015. On the other hand, paddy rice acreage in the North/North east regions is projected at around 718,600 hectares, down from around 738,200 hectares in 2014-15, and down from last month's forecast of around 738,700 hectares.

Conab estimates the average rice yield in Brazil in 2015-16 at around 5.402 tons per hectare, down from around 5.42 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year, and up from last month's forecast of 5.35 tons per hectare.USDA estimates Brazil MY 2015-16 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 11.765 million tons (around 8 million tons, basis milled), down about 6% from an estimated 12.5 million tons (around 8.5 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15. It estimates Brazil’s 2015-16 paddy rice acreage to increase slightly to around 2.3 million hectares from last year's 2.295 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export around one million tons of rice and import around 450,000 tons of rice in 2015.

Typhoon 'Melor' Damages 29,481 Tons of Paddy Rice Worth $5.42 Million in Philippines, Says DA

Dec 17, 2015

The typhoon 'Melor' (Nona) has damaged about 29,481 tons of Paddy worth P255.87 million (around $5.42 million) in around 15,758 hectares, according to local sources.According to the initial estimates by the Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA), around 11,416 hectares of rice farms have a chance of recovery, while 4,342 hectares of land is beyond recovery. Rice farms in Region 5 (Bicol Region), Camarines Sur and Albay have been particularly affected significantly.

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The DA estimates that the typhoon has caused damage to crops worth P732.59 million (around $15.5 million). The DA estimates that around 20,309 hectares of agricultural land comprising rice, corn, cassava, livestock and fisheries have been damaged.The damage by Typhoon Melor may prompt the Philippines government to import more rice to ensure adequate stocks and prevent price hikes. The government has already approved imports of around 500,000 tons in the first quarter of 2016 and is planning to import another 300,000 - 400,000 before the second quarter.