Oil and rice
prices to remain steady this year–WB report
January 26, 2016
By Cai U. Ordinario
The World Bank (WB) expects oil prices to remain below $60 per
barrel until 2020.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook released by the WB, oil
prices will average $37 per barrel (bbl) in 2016, lower than its $52-per-bbl
forecast in October 2015.
Beyond 2016, the WB expects oil prices to average $48/bbl in
2017; $51.4/bbl in 2018; $54.9/bbl in 2019; and $58.8/bbl in 2020.“Low prices
for oil and commodities are likely to be with us for some time,” said John
Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the Commodities Markets Outlook.
“While we see some prospect for commodity prices to rise slightly over the next
two years, significant downside risks remain.”
Oil prices fell by 47 percent in 2015 and are expected to
decline, on an annual average, by another 27 percent in 2016.However, the WB
said there is a gradual recovery in oil prices this year. This expected uptick
in prices will be smaller than the rebounds that followed sharp drops in 2008,
1998 and 1986.The Washington-based lender’s data showed that average oil prices
has been low throughout 2015 at an average of $50.8/bbl. Oil prices dropped
below $100/bbl in 2014 when oil prices averaged $96.2/bbl.Dubai Crude, which is
the country’s main oil import, averaged $51.2/bbl on 2015 and $96.7/bbl in
2014.
“First, the sharp oil price drop in early 2016 does not appear
fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely
to partly reverse,” WB said.“Second, high-cost oil producers are expected to
sustain persistent losses and increasingly make production cuts that are likely
to outweigh any additional capacity coming to the market. Third, demand is expected
to strengthen somewhat with a modest pickup in global growth,” it added.Apart
from oil, the WB said rice prices are also expected to remain below $400 per
metric ton (MT) in 2016 and beyond.
For 2016, rice prices are expected to average $370/MT, and in
2017 it will average $374/MT. Rice prices are expected to average $379/MT,
$383/MT and $387/MT in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Rice prices reached $506/MT in 2013 and $423/MT in 2014. In 2015
global rice prices averaged $386/MT.However, the El Niño phenomenon is expected
to cut rice production globally. In the Philippines, rice production is
forecasted to slow to 11.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2016.
“Global rice production is also expected to decline marginally
(from 478 to 470 million tons) on weakening output prospects in Asia,
particularly in India, the Philippines and Thailand, the world’s top rice
exporter,” the report stated.“The stocks-to-use ratio for rice is expected to
drop to 18.6 percent, down from last season’s 21.7 percent. The ongoing
tightness in the rice market has been linked to El Niño,” it added.
Overall, the WB said that prices for 37 of the 46 commodities
were revised downward for 2016.
The global lender said emerging market economies have been the
main source of commodity demand growth since 2000 but weakening growth
prospects in these economies are weighing on commodity prices.
The bank estimates that a further slowdown in major emerging
markets would reduce trading partner growth and global commodity demand.“Low
commodity prices are a double-edged sword, where consumers in importing
countries stand to benefit while producers in net exporting countries suffer,”
said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group. “It
takes time for the benefits of lower commodity prices to be transformed into
stronger economic growth among importers, but commodity exporters are feeling
the pain right away.”
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/oil-and-rice-prices-to-remain-steady-this-year-wb-report/
Phoney rice data threaten Indonesia supply
January
26, 2016 1:00 am
JAKARTA -
Indonesian agriculture officials routinely inflate rice harvest data to present
a rosy picture to the government and keep farm subsidies flowing, but their
latest phoney numbers could lead to a severe shortage of the staple in coming
months, officials say.
If the
data had been correct, Indonesia would be awash in rice supplies and President
Joko Widodo would have less to worry about. The number rigging, critics say,
flies in the face of food self-sufficiency targets that he has been
aggressively pursuing since taking office in 2014.
"These numbers are so exaggerated," said a senior government official who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. "We're scrambling right now to build stocks in case there's a failed harvest in February and March."
Only last month, supply shortages forced the government to import rice hurriedly from Thailand and Vietnam to avoid a surge in prices, which in the past has sparked civil unrest and contributed to the downfall of autocratic leader Suharto.
"These numbers are so exaggerated," said a senior government official who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. "We're scrambling right now to build stocks in case there's a failed harvest in February and March."
Only last month, supply shortages forced the government to import rice hurriedly from Thailand and Vietnam to avoid a surge in prices, which in the past has sparked civil unrest and contributed to the downfall of autocratic leader Suharto.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/MEGA-PROJECTS-TO-BE-UNDER-WAY-BY-MIDYEAR-30277712.html
Vietnam rice exports increase due to unexpected
year-end demand
1/25/2016 - by World Grain Staff
Share This:
WASHINGTON,
D.C., U.S. —Vietnam’s rice exports for market year 2014-15 are revised up from
6.3 million tonnes to 6.5 million tonnes, due to unexpected demand from
Vietnam’s traditional markets at the end of calendar year 2015. For the 2015-16
market year, rice exports are revised down from 7.1 million tonnes to 6 million
tonnes, due to expected low carry-over stocks from the market year 2014-15, the
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
reported on Jan. 8.Total rice production for the market year 2014-15 is expected to reach 45.18 million tonnes of paddy rice, or approximately 28.24 million tonnes of milled rice, according to the report. This is a slight increase compared to market year 2013-14 production (about 100,000 tonnes of paddy). The increase in production is mainly due to the larger planted and harvested area of winter crop, due to low level flooding in the Mekong River Delta (MRD).
The autumn crop is mainly located in the southern provinces. The MRD typically accounts for more than 80% of the total autumn crop planting area. As of Dec. 15, 2015, the harvest of the market year 2014-15 autumn crop is nearly completed, due to decreased water supply caused by lower flooding water level. For crops in some planted areas, yield is expected down (from 5.58 tonnes per hectare to 5.5 tonnes per hectare) resulting in lower production (from an expected 16.06 million tonnes to 15.84 million tonnes).
Also due to the lower flooding water level, farmers were able to expand their areas for winter crop, the latest crop of the year. The harvested area for winter crop was revised from 1.7 million hectares to 1.8 million hectares, the report said. The market year 2014-15 winter crop production was revised up from 8.16 million tonnes to 8.64 million tonnes.
In the recent year, Vietnam has exported rice to neighbor countries, mainly China, via border trade. However, the trade volumes have not been recorded in the official numbers of both selling and buying countries. The report therefore cannot include the number of such trade volumes into the export numbers and has to consider these volumes as a part of local consumption.
Rice stock in market year 2014-15 is estimated to be very low due to unexpected increases in demand from Indonesia and the Philippines. Rice stock in market year 2015-16, however, is expected to be at an identical low level compared to market year 2014-15, which will prevent Vietnam from exporting large amounts in market year 2015-16.
http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2016/01/Vietnam_rice_exports_increase.aspx?ID={AF56332C-6074-4B54-A97C-7C1414DB34F3}
01/26/2016 Farm
Bureau Market Report
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Rice Comment
Rice prices
close slightly higher today. The market remains near the bottom of the recent
trading range as prices continue to be pressured by January's bearish USDA
report. The market will be closely watching tomorrow's export sales report to see if lower prices
are stirring additional demand.
4-crop yielding pattern stressed in Barind
RAJSHAHI: Agricultural scientists and researchers have
unequivocally called for promotion of four crop-based yielding pattern through
the best uses of modern technologies in the vast Barind tract for sustaining
soil fertility and crop productivity specially BARI Sharisha15. They viewed there has been an
enormous prospects of bringing harvesting intensity coupled with increasing
food production through successful promotion of the Aush-Aman-Mustard-Mungbean
cropping pattern. Farmers have vital role to play in this regard. To maintain
sound soil health, it could be advisable to grow mustard, particularly BARI
Sharisha15 using a different system in order to improve compatibility between
monsoon rice and upland winter crops.
This would also suit the shift in economic importance towards the
winter crops over monsoon rice. They were addressing a farmers training and
field day programme titled "Four Crop-based Cropping Pattern Development
Programme towards intensifying cropping intensity and Yield" held at Belpukur
under Godagari upazila of the district on Sunday. Barind Centre of On-Farm
Research Division (OFRD) under Bangladesh Agriculture Research Institute (BARI)
organised the training in a bid to sensitize the farmers towards adopting the
cropping pattern. The initiative has been taken to increase agricultural
production and income of marginalised farming families of the Barind tract by
adapting climate adaptive sustainable agricultural technologies, diversifying
income generating activities and skill development. Additional Deputy Director
of Department of Agriculture Extension Shamsul Haque addressed the training as
chief guest with Dr Alim Uddin, Principal Scientific Officer of BARI, in the
chair.
Principal Scientific
Officer of Regional Wheat Research Station Dr Ilias Hossain, Scientific Officer
and Officer-in-Charge of Barind Center Dr Shakhawat Hossain and its Scientific
Officer Enayet Ali Pramanik also spoke. They also visited some projection plots
of BARI Sharisha15, a high yielding mustard variety innovated by Bangladesh
Rice Research Institute (BRRI), that has gained popularity among farmers in the
region including its vast barind tract for the last couple of years. The newly
innovated variety has opened up a door of boosting oil seed production along
with mitigating the adverse impact of climate change.
Speaking on the occasion,
the visiting scientists and researchers have urged upon the farmers to promote
the new mustard variety for better yield to meet up the country's gradually
increasing edible oil demand. Dr Shakhawat Hossain said the short duration
mustard variety should be incorporated in the cropping diversity in the region
for welfare of the farmers in general as well as the nation. The cash crop is
now being cultivated everywhere in the region as it had immense prospects to
achieve self-reliance in oil seed productions.-Asfar
http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/2016/01/25/12388
USDA: China
rice-export pact near
This article was published January 26, 2016 at 2:43 a.m.
The U.S. and China are in the
"last phase" of completing an agreement that would allow exports of
U.S. rice to China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday.The deal, 15
years in the making, would give U.S. rice producers access to the world's
largest rice market. It would not guarantee sales.The chairman of USA Rice, a
trade group, said he expected the first shipments of U.S. rice could be on
their way to China by late spring or early summer."We've been told by our
government that it's a done deal," said Dow Brantley, a Lonoke County
farmer who is chairman of the trade group representing producers, millers and
exporters.
U.S. Department of Agriculture
officials laid out the details of the agreement to USA Rice officials Thursday,
Brantley said, and USA Rice announced the deal late Friday.Brantley said Monday
that he could not confirm that the so-called phytosanitary protocol for rice
had yet been signed by representatives of the U.S. and Chinese governments.A
USDA spokesman said Monday there was still work to be done."USDA's Animal
and Plant Health Inspection Service can confirm that we and China's
Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine are in the
last phase of finalizing this regulatory process," the spokesman said in
an emailed statement. "However, an agreement has not yet been signed.
"Greg Yielding, executive
director of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association, said U.S. rice cannot be
shipped to China until officials sign the protocol.The agreement covers rice
packaged for sale in grocery stores, not bulk shipments, Yielding said. He and
other industry representatives in Arkansas said affluent Chinese consumers want
to be able to buy high-quality U.S. rice in their stores.None of the industry
officials was prepared Monday to estimate how much U.S. rice the Chinese might
purchase.
"China is the largest rice
producer and consumer," said Bill Reed, vice president of corporate
communications and public affairs for Riceland Foods, Inc. in Stuttgart.
"Just a small percentage of the Chinese market would be big."Keith
Glover, president and chief executive officer of Producers Rice Mill, Inc. in
Stuttgart, agreed, noting China has a population of 1.3 billion people."We
wouldn't have to have much of that market to make a material difference for our
industry here," Glover said.Even though the protocol hasn't been signed,
Arkansas rice mills are preparing to meet its standards, Yielding said.Trade
groups have already forwarded lists of Arkansas mills that wish to participate
to USDA, Yielding said, so that they can be scheduled for inspection under the
terms of the phytosanitary protocol.
Two Chinese demands extended the
negotiations, Yielding said.The first was that U.S. mills agree to lay out
traps for the Khapra beetle and fumigate their rice packages when the insect is
found, Yielding said. Mills also will have to keep records of what is found in
the traps and make that information available to the Chinese, he said.Producers
said the beetle is rare in the U.S. and initially argued that putting out traps
for it was unnecessary.The second Chinese demand was for U.S. mills to use
labels that list all of the varieties of rice contained in each of their
packages, Yielding said. Some mills objected, noting that mixing of rice
varieties is common in the United States.Brantley said 30 varieties of
long-grain rice are grown in Arkansas, further complicating the task for the
state's mills. Under the final agreement, Brantley said, the labels will state
that the packages "may contain" any of a list of varieties.
Business on 01/26/2016
Print Headline: USDA: China
rice-export pact near
http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2016/jan/26/usda-china-rice-export-pact-near-201601/
Rice Leadership Grad Named Rice Farmer of the Year
MEMPHIS, TN -- Mark Isbell of North
Little Rock, Arkansas, was named 2016 Rice Farmer of the Year at the Cotton
& Rice Conference here. Isbell is part of a multi-generation rice
farm in central Arkansas focused on zero-grade farming and rice behind rice
rotation. He earned both a BA and an MA from the University of Arkansas
at Little Rock, where he teaches part time.
Isbell also is a graduate of the Rice Leadership Development program and gave the class commencement address at their graduation ceremony during the 2015 USA Rice Government Affairs Conference. Isbell's speech focused on his main take-away from the two-year program: "We have learned leadership is not about position; it is about affecting change and carrying your load wherever you are."
"I'm not surprised to see Mark acknowledged as Farmer of the Year at this major ag conference," said Chuck Wilson, executive director of The Rice Foundation and manager of the Rice Leadership Development program. "He is an exceptional individual, recognized for his commitment and leadership by both his peers and the industry. Program participants are chosen for their leadership potential and it's obvious Mark has already begun making the most of his."
The Rice Leadership Program is generously sponsored by John Deere Company, RiceTec, Inc. and American Commodity Company through The Rice Foundation and managed by USA Rice.
Isbell also is a graduate of the Rice Leadership Development program and gave the class commencement address at their graduation ceremony during the 2015 USA Rice Government Affairs Conference. Isbell's speech focused on his main take-away from the two-year program: "We have learned leadership is not about position; it is about affecting change and carrying your load wherever you are."
"I'm not surprised to see Mark acknowledged as Farmer of the Year at this major ag conference," said Chuck Wilson, executive director of The Rice Foundation and manager of the Rice Leadership Development program. "He is an exceptional individual, recognized for his commitment and leadership by both his peers and the industry. Program participants are chosen for their leadership potential and it's obvious Mark has already begun making the most of his."
The Rice Leadership Program is generously sponsored by John Deere Company, RiceTec, Inc. and American Commodity Company through The Rice Foundation and managed by USA Rice.
USDA: China rice-export pact near
Posted: January 26, 2016 at 2:43 a.m.
·
The U.S. and China are in the
"last phase" of completing an agreement that would allow exports of
U.S. rice to China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday.The deal, 15
years in the making, would give U.S. rice producers access to the world's largest
rice market. It would not guarantee sales.The chairman of USA Rice, a trade
group, said he expected the first shipments of U.S. rice could be on their way
to China by late spring or early summer.
"We've been told by our
government that it's a done deal," said Dow Brantley, a Lonoke County
farmer who is chairman of the trade group representing producers, millers and
exporters.U.S. Department of Agriculture officials laid out the details of the
agreement to USA Rice officials Thursday, Brantley said, and USA Rice announced
the deal late Friday.Brantley said Monday that he could not confirm that the
so-called phytosanitary protocol for rice had yet been signed by
representatives of the U.S. and Chinese governments.A USDA spokesman said
Monday there was still work to be done.
"USDA's Animal and Plant
Health Inspection Service can confirm that we and China's Administration of
Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine are in the last phase of
finalizing this regulatory process," the spokesman said in an emailed
statement. "However, an agreement has not yet been signed."Greg
Yielding, executive director of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association, said
U.S. rice cannot be shipped to China until officials sign the protocol.
The agreement covers rice packaged
for sale in grocery stores, not bulk shipments, Yielding said. He and other
industry representatives in Arkansas said affluent Chinese consumers want to be
able to buy high-quality U.S. rice in their stores.None of the industry
officials was prepared Monday to estimate how much U.S. rice the Chinese might
purchase.
"China is the largest rice
producer and consumer," said Bill Reed, vice president of corporate
communications and public affairs for Riceland Foods, Inc. in Stuttgart.
"Just a small percentage of the Chinese market would be big."Keith
Glover, president and chief executive officer of Producers Rice Mill, Inc. in
Stuttgart, agreed, noting China has a population of 1.3 billion people."We
wouldn't have to have much of that market to make a material difference for our
industry here," Glover said.Even though the protocol hasn't been signed,
Arkansas rice mills are preparing to meet its standards, Yielding said.Trade
groups have already forwarded lists of Arkansas mills that wish to participate
to USDA, Yielding said, so that they can be scheduled for inspection under the
terms of the phytosanitary protocol.
Two Chinese demands extended the
negotiations, Yielding said.The first was that U.S. mills agree to lay out
traps for the Khapra beetle and fumigate their rice packages when the insect is
found, Yielding said. Mills also will have to keep records of what is found in
the traps and make that information available to the Chinese, he said.Producers
said the beetle is rare in the U.S. and initially argued that putting out traps
for it was unnecessary.The second Chinese demand was for U.S. mills to use
labels that list all of the varieties of rice contained in each of their
packages, Yielding said. Some mills objected, noting that mixing of rice varieties
is common in the United States.Brantley said 30 varieties of long-grain rice
are grown in Arkansas, further complicating the task for the state's mills.
Under the final agreement, Brantley said, the labels will state that the
packages "may contain" any of a list of varieties.
Business on 01/26/2016
http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2016/jan/26/usda-china-rice-export-pact-near-201601/
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Traffic, agriculture, economy dominate
Aquino, Japanese Emperor meeting
Published January 27, 2016
4:52pm
Updated January 27, 2016 4:52pm
Updated January 27, 2016 4:52pm
Manila’s severe traffic problem, the economy and agriculture
dominated the talks between President Aquino and Japan Emperor Akihito on
Wednesday.The two leaders made no mention of World War II, during which the
Philippines suffered tremendous loss of life during the Japanese occupation, a
senior Japanese official said.Hatsuhisa Takashima, press secretary to the
Emperor, described the meeting between Aquino and the Emperor and his wife,
Empress Michiko, who arrived in the country on Tuesday for a historic five-day
visit, as “very cordial, friendly, and a family-type gathering.” The meeting
took place at Malacañang Palace
At one point, Takashima said Aquino admitted to the Emperor that traffic congestion remains a biggest challenge to Philippine authorities.“The President mentioned the biggest issue of the Philippines is traffic infrastructure, how to modernize and how to make it better for the sake of the Philippine economy,” Takashima said.Aquino took the opportunity to express his gratitude to the Emperor for Japan’s development assistance to improve the country’s transportation infrastructure.In return, Akihito acknowledged the “enormous effort” being done by the Philippine government “to tackle with all those issues.”
At one point, Takashima said Aquino admitted to the Emperor that traffic congestion remains a biggest challenge to Philippine authorities.“The President mentioned the biggest issue of the Philippines is traffic infrastructure, how to modernize and how to make it better for the sake of the Philippine economy,” Takashima said.Aquino took the opportunity to express his gratitude to the Emperor for Japan’s development assistance to improve the country’s transportation infrastructure.In return, Akihito acknowledged the “enormous effort” being done by the Philippine government “to tackle with all those issues.”
Japanese cars
On the economy, Takashima said President Aquino mentioned the
booming Japanese retail and automotive industry in the country, noting the
popularity for Japan-made cars in the Philippines.On agriculture, Aquino
lamented the country’s fall from being a major agricultural country to merely
being a net importer of rice.The Emperor, Takashima said, asked what happened
and Aquino cited the lack of irrigation system maintenance, an aging workforce,
the failure to enforce a rice price system. The President also said the price
of rice in the country has “gone to an uncontrollable situation.”
In contrast to the Philippines, the Emperor, who is scheduled to visit the International Rice Research Institute in Los Baños, Laguna on Friday, mentioned that in Japan, many young people are getting interested, and described such development as “a good sign for the future for Japanese agriculture.”Aquino conveyed to Akihito his plan to offer incentives to young people who will take the initiative to revitalize the country’s agriculture sector.
“There was no mention of war, but as you know the Emperor has expressed his great profound remorse for the loss of lives of many Filipinos when the fighting was done between the Japanese army and the US army and he also mentioned that the Japanese people must remember the agony suffered and experienced by the Filipinos,” Takashima told journalists at a briefing.
Relations between two countries have seen dramatic improvements after the war, with Japan becoming one of the Philippines’ major trading partner and top aid donor.
In contrast to the Philippines, the Emperor, who is scheduled to visit the International Rice Research Institute in Los Baños, Laguna on Friday, mentioned that in Japan, many young people are getting interested, and described such development as “a good sign for the future for Japanese agriculture.”Aquino conveyed to Akihito his plan to offer incentives to young people who will take the initiative to revitalize the country’s agriculture sector.
“There was no mention of war, but as you know the Emperor has expressed his great profound remorse for the loss of lives of many Filipinos when the fighting was done between the Japanese army and the US army and he also mentioned that the Japanese people must remember the agony suffered and experienced by the Filipinos,” Takashima told journalists at a briefing.
Relations between two countries have seen dramatic improvements after the war, with Japan becoming one of the Philippines’ major trading partner and top aid donor.
Robust ties
Akihito’s visit is seen as a strong indication of robust ties between the countries – both close allies of the United States – embroiled in separate long-standing maritime rifts with China.
Tens of thousands of Filipinos died during the war and devastated the capital Manila.
Former Filipinas who worked in war brothels, called as "comfort women," were hoping that their decades-old demand for an apology and announcement of adequate compensation will finally happen during the Emperor's visit.The Emperor, a revered figure in Japan, is merely a figurehead and does not have a say in political matters. Policy issues like the maritime disputes with China and the Filipino comfort women are not likely part of his agenda in Manila, Takashima said, although Akihito is scheduled to visit a Japanese war memorial garden in Caliraya, Laguna this Thursday.
“To each individual subject related to war, I don’t think it is the Emperor’s role to express the detailed things to each individual items,” Takashima said. “But he has always mentioned the necessity of peace and stability of the international relations and never forget the war and the victims of the war, especially in the World War II.”According to the Japanese official, the two leaders spoke extensively on the close ties between their countries.Their Majesties, who first visited the Philippines in 1962 when they were Crown Prince and Princess on behalf of the then Emperor Showa, recalled with fondness their previous visits to Tagaytay and Baguio 54 years ago, Takashima said. – VS, GMA News
Akihito’s visit is seen as a strong indication of robust ties between the countries – both close allies of the United States – embroiled in separate long-standing maritime rifts with China.
Tens of thousands of Filipinos died during the war and devastated the capital Manila.
Former Filipinas who worked in war brothels, called as "comfort women," were hoping that their decades-old demand for an apology and announcement of adequate compensation will finally happen during the Emperor's visit.The Emperor, a revered figure in Japan, is merely a figurehead and does not have a say in political matters. Policy issues like the maritime disputes with China and the Filipino comfort women are not likely part of his agenda in Manila, Takashima said, although Akihito is scheduled to visit a Japanese war memorial garden in Caliraya, Laguna this Thursday.
“To each individual subject related to war, I don’t think it is the Emperor’s role to express the detailed things to each individual items,” Takashima said. “But he has always mentioned the necessity of peace and stability of the international relations and never forget the war and the victims of the war, especially in the World War II.”According to the Japanese official, the two leaders spoke extensively on the close ties between their countries.Their Majesties, who first visited the Philippines in 1962 when they were Crown Prince and Princess on behalf of the then Emperor Showa, recalled with fondness their previous visits to Tagaytay and Baguio 54 years ago, Takashima said. – VS, GMA News
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/552887/money/economy/traffic-agriculture-economy-dominate-aquino-japanese-emperor-meeting#sthash.eXsmduG6.dpuf
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