Saturday, February 06, 2016

5th February 2016 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine



Eating Fortified Rice May Increase Risk of Hookworm Infections, Finds Study

Feb 04, 2016

A team of researchers from the Cambodia-based French Research Institute for Development have found that eating fortified rice can increase the risk of hookworm infections, according to a study published in PLOS One in January 2016.
A study in Cambodian school children showed that rice's added micro-nutrients inadvertently help parasites grow. The researchers analyzed faecal samples of about 2,000 children at 16 primary schools. The schools were randomly split into four groups: children in one group received plain rice while the other groups received fortified with micro-nutrients such as iron, zinc, folate and different vitamins.
They measured levels of intestinal infections in the four groups after three and seven months and found that groups that consumed micro-nutrient fortified rice contracted with hookworm infections. They view that "the merits of micro-nutrient repletion should be weighed carefully against its possible risks.”
One of the authors of the paper/study says: “There is absolutely an important role to play for fortified rice, but it should be tailor-made to the local situation.” But, he noted that deworming every six months would help reduce hookworm infections likely to surface with fortified rice.
However, the study received mixed reactions. A nutrition researcher at Mahidol University in Thailand says the study's findings needed to be verifies because parasite infections are more or less common in some seasons. So, conducting the study in a season, when gut infections are common, may provide misleading results

FAO Forecasts 2015-16 Global Rice Production at 491.8 Million Tons; Slightly Down from Previous Year

Feb 04, 2016
In its January 2016 Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization forecasts 2015-16 global rice production at around 491.8 million tons, slightly down from an estimated 494.3 million tons in 2014-15, and slightly up from its last month's forecast of around 491.4 million tons. The FAO forecasts improved production outlook in China, Vietnam and the U.S., while lower production prospects in Japan and Nepal.
In general, the FAO expects rice production along and south of the Equator to be dim, with insufficient water insufficient water lowering plantings in Australia and delaying them in Indonesia, while excessive rains and low returns are negatively affecting sowings in South America.
The FAO estimates 2015-16 global rice utilization at around 498.4 million tons, up about 1.1% from an estimated 492.8 million tons in 2014-15. The FAO anticipates the average per capita rice consumption in 2015-16 at around 54.7 kilograms.
The FAO estimates 2016 global rice stocks at around 166.6 million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 172.1 million tons in 2015, and up from its last month's forecast of around 165.6 million tons. The FAO expects the world stocks-to-use ratio down to a four-year low of 32.8%.
The FAO estimates 2016 global rice trade at around 45.4 million tons, up about 1.4% from an estimated 44.8 million tons last year, and slightly up from its last month's forecast of around 45 million tons. The FAO expects greater purchases by China and Indonesia in 2016.

FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines Slightly in January 2016 After Increasing in Previous Month

Feb 04, 2016
The FAO All Rice Price Index declined by two points or 0.5% to around 195 points in January 2016 after increasing slightly in December 2016. Before that, the index declined continuously for fifteen months since September 2014.
According to the FAO, prices of the Lower quality sub-index India remained stable at 181 points, while those of the Higher Quality Indica sub-index declined by about 1 point to 179 points. Japonica and Aromatic sub-indices declined by 1% and 2% respectively to 240 points and 149 points.
In January 2015 - January 2016, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 195 points, down about 12% from around 222 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher quality Indica rice prices declined about 7.5% y/y and sub-index for lower quality Indica rice prices declined about 4.4% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub-index declined about 21.4% y/y, and the sub-index for Japonica rice prices declined by about 14% y/y.
According to the FAO, Thai rice prices firmed due to lower supplies and a likely lower output this year. Pakistan rice prices increased on improved expectations for sales to China, the Near East and Africa. India rice prices declined due to a weaker rupee. Prices in Vietnam also declined ahead of the imminent harvest of the winter/spring crop. Prices in the U.S. declined on limited buying, and declined in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil by a depreciation of local currencies.
During January 2015, average rice export quotations (on fob basis) of Thai 100% broken rice, Thai 5% rice, Thai 25% rice, Thai parboiled rice and Thai Fragrant rice increased to around $375 per ton, $369 per ton, $361 per ton, $377 per ton and $783 per ton respectively. Average export prices of Thai A1 Super rice declined to around $331 per ton.
Export prices of Vietnam 25% broken rice declined to around $340 per ton. Quotations of India 25% broken rice declined to around $321 per ton and those of and Pakistan 25% broken rice increased to around $303 per ton. While U.S. 4% broken rice variety declined to around $474 per ton, U.S. California 4% rice declined to around $775 per ton. Uruguay 5% rice remained declined to around $479 per ton.

EU Rice Imports Increase Sharply in September 1, 2015 - January 26, 2016

Feb 04, 2016
According to the latest data issued by the European Union (EU), rice imports by the EU increased sharply since the beginning of the crop year 2015-16 (September 1, 2015 - August 31, 2016).
The EU imported about 477,018 tons of rice during the period September 1, 2015 - January 26, 2016, up about 30% from around 366,417 tons imported during the same period last year.
Japonica rice imports increased about 10% to around 34,444 tons in September 1, 2015 - January 26, 2015 period from around 31,336 tons during the same period last year. Indica rice imports increased about 32% to around 442,575 tons during the said period from around 335,081 tons last year.
The UK remained the largest importer in September 1, 2015 - January 26, 2016 period with around 115,066 tons followed by France (83,779 tons), The Netherlands (52,544 tons), Germany (36,013 tons), Poland (34,932 tons) and Italy (32,782 tons). Other EU countries imported 121,902 tons.
During the week ended January 26, 2016, the EU imported around 26,035 tons of rice, up about 19% from around 21,941 tons imported during the week ended January 19, 2015.
The EU imported around 1.143 million tons of rice in the crop year 2014-15, up about 12.7% from around 1.013 million tons imported in the crop year 2013-14


Indonesian Agriculture Minister Rules Out Rice Imports in 2016 Due to Adequate Stocks

Feb 04, 2016

The Indonesian Agriculture Minister has ruled out rice imports in 2016 citing the Agriculture Ministry's reports that the current national stock of around 1.2 million tons was sufficient, according to Antara News Agency.
He noted that another 3.5 million tons of rice would be added to stocks following the February 2016 harvest.
Speaking during a grand rice harvest in East Java, he highlighted the need for increasing production as Indonesia will not import rice. "We hope our rice production would increase this year and will be higher than that of last year," he said.
"We will also do our best to keep the price of rice stable at the farmers' level during the harvest seasons. To this end, the government is cooperating with the State Logistics Board (Bulog) to purchase the farmers' rice," the minister was quoted.
He also noted that the current government purchase price of paddy at Rp 3,700 per kilogram (around $273 per ton) and rice at Rp 7,300 per kilogram (around $538 per ton) were lower than the market prices. Therefore, farmers are not selling their output to Bulog, he said.
Meanwhile, the current news may not be a good one for traders (in exporting nations) who were hopeful that a new demand from Indonesia would increase rice prices.

Global Rice Quotes
February 5th, 2016
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade   380-390                ↔
Vietnam 5% broken        350-360                ↔
India 5% broken               360-370                ↔
Pakistan 5% broken        345-355                ↔
Myanmar 5% broken      415-425                ↔
Cambodia 5% broken     425-435                ↔
U.S. 4% broken                 460-470                ↔
Uruguay 5% broken        440-450                ↔
Argentina 5% broken     430-440                ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken      350-360                ↔
Vietnam 25% broken      340-350                ↔
Pakistan 25% broken      310-320                ↔
Cambodia 25% broken   405-415                ↔
India 25% broken             325-335                ↔
U.S. 15% broken               440-450                ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd     370-380                ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd          NQ         ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd                 350-360                ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken             480-490                ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken          520-530                ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken    NQ         ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92%   690-700                ↔
Vietnam Jasmine             425-435                ↔
India basmati 2% broken              NQ         ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken       NQ         ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails     750-760                ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super            325-335                ↑
Vietnam 100% broken   320-330                ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd          285-295                ↔
Cambodia A1 Super        345-355                ↔
India 100% broken stxd                 260-270                ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens      NQ         ↔
U.S. pet food     280-290                ↔
Brazil half grain NQ         ↔


All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com


India Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged

Feb 04, 2016

India rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and parboiled rice by about $5 per ton each to around $360-$370 per ton and $350-$360 per ton respectively. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.                                
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.
Parboiled Rice           
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $55 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $320 - $330 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $260 - $270 per ton, about $25 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton



USDA Post Estimates South Africa MY 2015-16 Rice Consumption and Imports to Increase on Higher Corn, Wheat Prices

Feb 04, 2016
The USDA Post estimates South Africa's MY 2015-16 rice consumption to increase about 10% to around 970,000 tons from around 880,000 tons in MY 2014-15 due to drought reflected record corn and wheat prices. Consequently, the Post estimates South Africa's rice imports to increase about 10% to around 1.1 million tons from around 981,594 tons in MY 2014-15. India and Thailand, supply more than 92% of South Africa's rice demand.
South Africa imported 622,893 tons of rice in May 1, 2015 to November, 2015.
The country exports a small amount of rice to neighboring countries. The Post estimates South Africa to export around 120,000 tons of rice in MY 2015-16, almost same as last year's level of around 122,262 tons.
South Africa produces no rice due to water scarcity, and is totally dependent on imports to meet local demand. Rice imports in the country are duty-free.
South Africa is majorly produces wheat and corn. However, since the country is undergoing worst drought conditions, the Post is expecting production of wheat and corn to decline about 14% and 25% respectively in MY 2015-16.
The Post reports that yellow and white corn prices have increased about 96% y/y and 163% y/y respectively reflecting the impact of the drought on local corn supplies and the sharp depreciation in rand, which depreciated by about 25% in 2015 and by another 6% in January 2016. In the last three months, white corn and yellow corn prices increased, respectively, by 69% and 38%, according to the Post. Similarly, the Post reports that local wheat prices increased by 26% y/y and by 16% in the last three months.

Oryza CBOT Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Trade Lower as Export Sales Report Fails to Spark Buying Interest

Feb 05, 2016

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 8.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $11.150 per cwt (about $244 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed about 0.3% lower at $8.7450 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.5% lower at $4.7275 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.7% lower at $3.6850 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded in a moderate range Thursday, as investors digested weaker-than-expected economic data while keeping an eye on oil prices. Oil prices whipsawed Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate falling 1.5% in afternoon trading after rising more than 3% at session highs. The U.S. dollar fell sharply Wednesday, with the dollar index falling more than 1%. The greenback resumed its downward trajectory Thursday, falling about 0.8%.Productivity declined 3% in the fourth quarter, its biggest drop since the first quarter of 2014, the Labor Department said Thursday. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims rose 8,000 to 285,000 last week, while economists were expecting a total of 280,000. Despite the increase last week, claims remained below 300,000, a level associated with strong labor market conditions, for the 48th straight week. That is the longest run since the early 1970s. Investors will dissect the January jobs report on Friday. In Europe, stocks traded mildly lower with the pan-European STOXX 600 index holding near the flatline. Asian equities were mixed overnight, with the Shanghai composite gaining 1.5% and the Nikkei 225 dropping 0.85%.The Dow Jones industrial average traded 20 points higher, or 0.1%, at 16,357. The S&P 500 fell 2 points to 1,909, with materials leading five sectors higher and consumer discretionary the biggest laggard. The Nasdaq gained 16 points to 4,489. Gold is seen trading about 1.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.8% lower at about  1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 291 contracts traded, down from 831 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 181 contracts to 12,859.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Soften As Export Sales Continue Disappoint

Feb 05, 2016

The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker again today as export sales continue to disappoint traders.
The USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week that ended on January 28th, totaled 39,000 tons, an increase of 72% from the previous week but 1% lower than the prior 4-week average.
Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 26,500 tons to Japan, 6,500 tons to El Salvador, 1,900 tons to Canada, 1,300 tons to Jordan, and 800 tons to Yemen while reductions of 500 tons were reported for Israel.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 39,700 tons, a decrease of 7% from than last week and 17% lower than the prior 4-week average.
Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 12,100 tons to Japan, 6,800 tons to Haiti, 4,900 tons to South Korea, 4,800 tons to Canada, and 4,000 tons to Mexico.

TPP Poses Threat to U.S. Rough Rice Exports to Mexico, Says RPA President

Feb 04, 2016

The President of the U.S. Rice Producers Association (RPA) has expressed concern over the future of U.S. rough rice exports to Mexico if the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is successfully completed, according to Delta Farm Press.
He noted that the U.S. had been exporting rough rice to Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and to Colombia under the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) without hassles for a number of years. However, recently, the U.S. is facing the threat of increasing Asian milled rice imports by both the countries.
He notes that the recently negotiated TPP is a "disaster for U.S. rough rice exports." He has expressed concern that if Vietnam obtains duty free status as part of the TPP, the U.S. would lose its lucrative market in Mexico.
Similarly, in Colombia, the official says, the U.S. rough rice was the most preferred one by the local mills some years ago, but the rules on rice diseases in the new FTA has led to a halt in U.S. rough rice exports to the South American nation. Recently, Colombia has been depending on imports from Thailand, he says.
The official noted that the US RPA has many times in the past highlighted these issues to the government. He added that they are planning to again address their concerns with the USDA, USTR, APHIS and members of Congress next week.  


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