13th april,2016 daily exclusive oryza rice e-newsletter by riceplus magazine

Brazil Paddy Rice Index Unchanged From Last Week

Apr 12, 2016

The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) reached around 39.6 real per 50 kilograms as of April 8, 2016, unchanged from last week.

In terms of USD, the index reached around $225.6 per ton on April 8, 2016, up around 3% from around $219.2 per ton recorded a week ago.

Month-over-month, the index has increased around 2.7% from around 40.71 real per 50 kilograms recorded month ago. In terms of USD, the index increased around 1% during the month.

India Rice Stocks in Central Pool Stand at 26.811 Million Tons as of April 1, 2016; Down 13% from Last Year

Apr 12, 2016

India’s rice stocks in the central pool as of April 1, 2016 stood at around 26.811 million tons (including a milled equivalent of about 9.925 million tons of paddy), down about 13.5% from around 23.61 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI).

Month-over-month, India's rice stocks in the central pool are down about 8% from around 29.234 million tons recorded on March 1, 2016. The current rice stocks are about double the required strategic reserve norms of around 13.58 million tons for this time of the year, according to the FCI.

Total food grain stocks (including rice and wheat) in the central pool stand at around 41.6 million tons as of April 1, 2016, up about 1% from last year's stock of around 41.143 million tons and down about 10% from last month's stock of around 46.233 million tons. Wheat stocks stand at around 14.538 million tons, down about 16% from last year's stock of around 17.221 million tons and down about 14% from last month's stock of around 16.865 million tons.

Oryza CBOT Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Close Lower as USDA WASDE Fails to Provide Price Support

Apr 13, 2016

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 6 cents were cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $9.785 per cwt (about $216 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed about 0.9% higher at $9.3625 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.2% higher at $4.5250 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.6% higher at $3.6550 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded higher Tuesday, with energy stocks leading as crude topped $41 a barrel, as investors awaited the bulk of earnings due over the next few weeks. U.S. crude oil futures topped their 200-day moving average in intraday trade for the first time since July 2014. WTI continued to trade higher near $41.80 a barrel after earlier rising more than 3.5% to hit a fresh high for 2016. In economic news, March import prices showed a 0.2% rise from the prior month for the first time in nine months, although the gain was well below the expected 1% rise. Export prices were unchanged. U.S. small business confidence fell to a fresh two-year low in March at 92.6, amid persistent worries about sales and profits, Reuters said, citing the National Federation of Independent Business. The major economic data due in the next few days include retail sales and inflation reports. European stocks were slightly higher in late-morning trade ET with banks underperforming. Overnight, the Shanghai composite closed 0.3% lower, while the Nikkei 225 gained 1.1%.In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average added 156 points, or 0.89%, to 17,712. The S&P 500 rose 16 points, or 0.8%, to 2,058, with energy leading all 10 sectors higher. The Nasdaq composite gained 25 points, or 0.5%, to 4,856. Gold is seen trading unchanged, crude oil is seen trading about 4.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading slightly higher at about  2:15pm Chicago time.

Monday, there were 993 contracts traded, down from 1,605 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday decreased by 125 contracts to 13,190.

China to Release More Water from Mekong River Dam to Reduce Drought Conditions Down River

Apr 12, 2016

China plans to release more water from a damn in the southwestern province of Yunnan, The Bangkok Post quotes China's Foreign Ministry as saying on Tuesday.

It's hoped that this additional water will help alleviate drought conditions in areas downriver, inlcluding Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. 

Millions of citizens in these Southeast Asian countries have been affected and rice acreage and yield have been under threat. 

Global Rice Quotes

April 13th, 2016

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade          380-390           ↔

Vietnam 5% broken    365-375           ↔

India 5% broken         370-380           ↔

Pakistan 5% broken    345-355           ↔

Myanmar 5% broken   415-425           ↔

Cambodia 5% broken             445-455           ↔

U.S. 4% broken           430-440           ↔

Uruguay 5% broken    435-445           ↔

Argentina 5% broken 425-435           ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 360-370           ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 350-360           ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 310-320           ↔

Cambodia 25% broken           425-435           ↔

India 25% broken       330-340           ↔

U.S. 15% broken (sacked)      470-480           ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd            370-380           ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd    NQ      ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd         345-355           ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken       480-490           ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken    490-510           ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken            NQ      ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%          670-680           ↔

Vietnam Jasmine         440-450           ↔

India basmati 2% broken        NQ      ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken   NQ      ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails             760-770           ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super      330-340           ↔

Vietnam 100% broken            340-350           ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd    285-295           ↔

Cambodia A1 Super   345-355           ↔

India 100% broken stxd         275-285           ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ      ↔

U.S. pet food 315-325           ↔

Brazil half grain          NQ      ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Turkey Rice Acreage, Production to Decline as Farmers Bemoan Prices, Says USDA Post Report

Apr 12, 2016

USDA Post estimates Turkey’s rice planting will decrease to 96,000 hectares in the 2016/17 marketing year, resulting in an estimated production of 731,000 in the same marketing year.  Turkey’s what, corn, and barley production estimates also show expectations for a year-over-year decline from the 2015/16 marketing year. 

Turkey’s rice planting will start this month and finish by the end of May. The USDA Post says weather conditions and dam water levels are favorable but the agency expects farmers to plant about 2% less acreage in rice due to “decreased profitability and marketing issues.” The report goes on to say that this is the second year farmers are dissatisfied with prices.  Rice yields will be determined by rainfall in late August through early September with harvest in September and October.

The Government of Turkey supports rice farmers with a production premium; in 2015 that was 100 Turkish Lira (about $35 USD) per ton.   The government also collects fees of 25 Turkish Lira (about $8.75 USD) per hectare for permission to grow rice; these funds are for malaria control and to distribute water fairly. 

Vietnam, India Rice Sellers lower Some Their Quotes Today; Other Asian Rice Quotes Unchanged

Apr 12, 2016

Vietnam rice sellers  lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice and Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton and $20 per ton to about $350-$360 per ton and $440-$450 per ton, respectively, today. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to about $330-$340 per ton. Thailand and Pakistan rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $376 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350- $360 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $330- $340 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.

Parboiled Rice           

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $60 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

Wholesale Basmati Rice Prices in India Continue to Rise on High Demand, Tight Supply

Apr 12, 2016

Wholesale basmati rice prices in India's national capital increased today, due to high demand against restricted supplies from producing regions, according to the Times of India.

On April 12, 2016, prices of Pusa 1121 increased to around Rs.4,500 - 5,500 per quintal (around $678 - $828 per ton) from previous levels of around Rs.4,300 - 5,300 per quintal (around $651 - $802 per ton).

Prices of common basmati increased to around Rs.5,800 - 5,900 per quintal (around $873 - $889 per ton) from previous levels of around Rs.5,600 - 5,700 per quintal (around $848 - $863 per ton).

West Africa Rice Production Projected to Increase, Reducing Imports, Says USDA Post Report

Apr 12, 2016

West African countries saw their combined rice production increase 17% y/y in the 2015/16 (October 2015 -September 2016) marketing year to about 5.978 million tons and will see a 7% y/y increase in the 2016/17 marketing year to 6.425 million tons, according to a USDA Post Report. 

The region's rice imports are expected to decline 1% y/y to 3.75 million tons in the 2016/17 marketing year from about 3.79 million tons in the 2015/16 marketing year.

Jordan Rice Imports to Increase Slightly, Says USDA Post Report

Apr 12, 2016

Jordan’s rice imports for the 2016/17 marketing year are projected at 210,000 tons, according to a recent USDA Post Report.  That is up from 209,000 tons in 2015/16 according to the USDA Post and 200,000 tons in 2015/16 according to the USDA. 

Jordan imports and distributes rice through private channels and all rice imports are duty free.  Jordan does not produce rice domestically and consumers prefer medium grain rice for dishes like the popular “mansef;” the USDA Post reports that average annual consumption is about 24 kg per person and is likely to increase along with population growth. About 90% of imported rice is the medium grain (camolino) variety.  The U.S. market share is estimated to remain at about 50%; historically the 50% U.S. market share is followed by about 25% from India, and the remaining tonnage from Australia, Thailand, and Italy. 

This Year’s India Monsoon Rains Expected to Exceed 50-Year Average

Apr 13, 2016

India should see above normal rainfall in the upcoming monsoon, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).  The monsoon accounts for 80% of the nation’s annual rainfall, starts in June, and takes place over the growing season of the main season rice crop.  

The IMD projects precipitation in this year’s monsoon rains will be 106% of the 50-year average of 89 centimeters (about 35 inches). The healthy monsoon would be the first time since 2013 that precipitation is above the 50-year average and follows an El Nino weather phenomenon that has cause drought across rice producing regions of Asia. 

In 2015 monsoon rains were 14% below the 50-year average and in 2014 they were 12% below the 50-year average. 

With El Nino waning, there is now a 50% chance of a La Nina weather phenomenon developing, which could mean additional rains for Asia. 

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Hold Steady Even as Ending Stocks Decline

Apr 13, 2016

The U.S. cash market was mostly unchanged today after the USDA WASDE report estimated that U.S. long grain ending stocks decreased by 0.5 million cwt (about 22,689 tons) from last month to 22.5 million cwt (about 1.02 million tons) on account of decreased imports.

Besides that, the USDA left the U.S. balance sheet completely unchanged from last month however they did decrease the average farm price for all grain types.
Long grain was reduced from $11.00-$11.60 per cwt to $10.80-$11.20 per cwt while California medium grain and Southern medium grain were reduced from $18.50-$19.50 per cwt to $18.20-$18.80 per cwt and $11.40-$12.00 per cwt to $11.20-$11.80 per cwt, respectively.

The USDA cut global production by 0.5 million tons, primarily due to reduced production in Brazil and Pakistan, however this was partially offset by reduced domestic use projections, which ultimately lowered ending stocks by 0.3 million ton to 90.2 million tons.