Oryza Weekly: Global Rice Market Mixed Amid
Large Currency Moves
Apr 02, 2016
The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a
weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about
$387 per ton, down $1 per ton from a week ago, up $2 per ton from a month ago
and down $25 per ton from a year ago. Gloabl rice quotes ended the weekly
mostly weeker to unchanged with the exception of South Asia.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today
quoted at about $370 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $5 per ton
from a month ago and down about $20 per ton from a year ago.
The Thai Commerce Minister has
assured that the rice and rubber deals with China won’t be affected by a change
in the investment of the proposed Thai-Sino high-speed rail project.
The government plans to sell more
than 100,000 tons of food-grade rice in the second half of April, with about 12
million tons currently held in government stockpiles.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today
quoted at about $380 per ton, down about $10 per ton from a week ago, up about
$20 per ton from a month ago and up about $15 per ton from a year ago.
During the period January 1 – March
15, Vietnam exported 1.11 million tons of rice. The average rice export
price so far this year is $397.33 per ton (FOB).
Vietnam rice exports are becoming
less competitive due to higher prices compared to exports from Thailand and
India, with export prices of Vietnam 5% rice increasing about $20 per ton since
the beginning of March 2016. Current prices are quoted around $380-$390
per ton, which is $5-$55 higher per ton than India’s, Pakistan’s, and
Thailand’s 5% rice.
Vietnam rice exporters plan to sell
to France’s second largest retail chain.
Experts are noting that the
Vietnamese government should focus on long-term water reserve policies in order
to address the increasing salt water intrusion into coastal provinces.
Ongoing drought and increasing salinity has affected about 180,000 hectares of
farm land, destroying major crops, including rice.
Cambodia & Myanmar
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $455 per ton, up about
$30 per ton from a week ago, up about $40 per ton from a month ago and up about
$15 per ton from a year ago. Cambodia’s Foreign Minister has urged Malaysian
businessmen to invest in the country’s rice milling sector as part of
discussions with the Malaysian Ambassador to Cambodia this week. Separately,
following an emergency meeting of the members of the Cambodia Rice Federation
and the involved stakeholders with the Deputy Prime Minister, the government
announced that it would remove the current value added tax on milling machines
and take action on companies importing rice from neighboring countries and
rebranding it as Cambodian rice.
Myanmar 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $420 per ton, down about
$5 per ton from a week and a month ago, and up about $5 per ton from a year
ago. Meanwhile, the Myanmar Rice Federation, the Myanmar Rice and Paddy Traders
Association, and the University of Agriculture plan to jointly conduct a survey
on local rice consumption next year.
India
India 5% broken rice is today
quoted at about $375 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week a month ago, and
down about $5 per ton from a year ago.
India average wholesale rice prices
have increased for the fifth consecutive month on concerns of low production
following below average rains during the 2015-16 kharif (July-December)
season. Average monthly wholesale rice prices were around Rs.2,833.93 per
quintal in March, up about 1.6% from in February, but down slightly from the
same time last year. In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India
stand at around $426 per ton (using current exchange rates) in March 2016, up
about 5% from around $406 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in February
2016, and down about 7% from around $460 per ton (using historical exchange
rates) in March 2015.
Wholesale basmati rice prices in
the national capital increased this week due to increased buying for
stockpiling against restricted supplies from producing regions.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today
quoted at about $345 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week and a month ago
and down about $10 per ton from a year ago.
The Commerce Minister has decided
to replace the commercial attaché in Saudi Arabia following complaints from
rice exporters.
Central & South America
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today quoted at about $430 per
ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago
and down about $145 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA Post forecasts Colombia’s MY 2016-17 (April-March) rice
imports at around 320,000 tons, up slightly from an estimated 300,000 tons last
year due to an expected increase in production.
The Guyana Rice Development Board has signed
agreements with two Jamaican companies recently to export about 80,000 tons of
rice to the Caribbean nation in 2016, about double what was exported in 2015.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today quoted
at about $445 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from
a month ago and down about $40 per ton from a year ago.
Chicago rough rice futures for May
delivery dropped this week, reaching a new low of $9.425 per cwt (about $208
per ton) on Thursday before regaining some to close at $9.780 per cwt (about
$216 per ton) Friday.
The U.S. cash market dropped later
in the week after the USDA estimated a 31% increase in long-grain acreage,
which was quite higher than the 10-20% that had been anticipated by analysts.
Other Markets
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased 7,700 tons of Thai rice as part of the tender to
purchase 22,000 tons of rice. Reuters reports that South Korea also
bought 44,000 tons of U.S. and Chinese rice under a separate tender.
The USDA Post forecasts Tanzania’s MY 2015-16 (May-April) rice
imports to increase about 60% y/y to around 160,000 tons.
Egypt’s state grain buyer General Authority for Supply Commodities has
canceled a tender to purchase an unspecified amount of rice for delivery from
April 20 to May 10. Effective April 4, Egypt will ban rice exports (which
have been allowed since October 2015); locals claim the tight supplies on the
government’s failure to stockpile enough rice soon enough resulted in private
traders hoarding rice in anticipation of higher prices.
The Italian Minister of Agriculture has
submitted a document to the European Commission Rice Committee urging it to
apply duties to zero-duty EU rice imports from the Asian Least Developed
Countries through a safeguard clause to protect the local rice sector, calling
the EU rice “import situation totally out of control.”
The European Union has increased its rice imports
sharply since the beginning of the crop year 2015-16 (September-August), with
679,233 tons imported during that time, about 17% more than the same period
last year. Meanwhile, the European Union exported about 123,197 tons of rice
during the period September 1 – March 15, a decrease of about 17% from the same
period last year.
The UN’s FAO forecasts China’s MY 2015-16 (June-May) rice
imports to decline about 6% y/y to around 5.8 million tons due to the
government’s efforts to limit informal imports. The FAO forecasts China’s
2015 paddy rice output at around 208.25 million tons, up from 206.507 million
tons in 2014 due to favorable weather conditions.
The USDA Post forecasts South Africa’s MY 2016-17 (May-April) rice
consumption to increase about 10% y/y to around 970,000 tons due to
drought-reflected record corn prices. Consequently, the Post forecasts
South Africa’s MY 2016-17 rice imports to increase about 10% y/y to about 1.1
million tons.
In calendar year 2015, Algeria imported about 113,859 tons of
rice, about 3% less than in CY 2014.
The government of the Philippines may not import rice for the lean
season (July-September) this year due to adequate stocks. Since Wednesday,
farmers in the Philippines are protesting to demand the governor release 15,000
bags of rice. Six thousand farmers blocked a main highway in the North
Cotabato province and attacked police with sticks and stones, protesting the
loss of their crops. Philippine police responded by opening fire on the
protest, killing one person and wounding over 10.
South Korea Buys 7,700 Tons of Thai Rice
Apr 01, 2016
South Korea's Agro-Fisheries &
Food Trade Corp, the state's grain buying agency purchased 7,700 tons of Thai
rice, according to Reuters. This was part of the tender to purchase 22,000 tons of rice.
Reuters reports South Korea also
bought 44,000 tons of U.S. and Chinese rice under a separate tender.
Philippine Police Open Fire on Rice Farmers'
Protest, Killing One
Apr 01, 2016
Six thousand Philippine rice
farmers blocked a main highway in the North Cotabato province and attacked
police with sticks and stones, protesting the loss of their crops.
Reuters reports that Philippine police opened fire on the protest, killing one
person, and wounding over 10 people.
Protesting since Wednesday, farmers
are demanding to speak with the governor and for the release of 15,000 bags of
rice.
The police department said it was
investigating the incedent.
Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago
Rough Rice Futures Recover Slightly as does Corn; Beans and Wheat Add to Gains
Following Yesterday's USDA Report
Apr 01, 2016
Chicago rough rice futures for May
delivery settled 9 cents were cwt (about $2 per ton) higher at $9.780 per cwt
(about $215 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed
about 0.8% higher at $9.1825 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% higher at
$4.7575 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.7% higher at $3.5400 per
bushel.
U.S. stocks traded higher Friday,
amid pressure from low oil prices, after encouraging reports on domestic
employment and manufacturing. The major averages turned higher after ISM
manufacturing for March came in at 51.8, topping expectations and up from
February's 49.5 print. In afternoon trading, the major indexes held near
session highs. U.S. crude oil futures held about 3% lower below $37.09 a
barrel, hitting their lowest since March 16. The weekly oil rig count showed a
decline of 10, according to Baker Hughes. Oil fell sharply on renewed
oversupply concerns, after reports that Saudi Arabia would not agree to a
production freeze unless Iran and other major producers also did so. The
decline in oil and overnight sell-off in some major overseas stock indexes on
disappointing Japanese data initially weighed heavily on U.S. equities, which
opened lower despite an encouraging March jobs report. Traders also attributed
part of the morning decline in stocks to beginning-of-quarter flows. In other
economic news, February construction spending declined 0.5 percent. The final
University of Michigan consumer sentiment read for March was 91.0. Earlier, the
March U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5. The March employment
report showed creation of 215,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate edging up to
5.0% and average hourly earnings rising seven cents, according to Reuters. The
labor force participation rate rose to 63%, its highest level since March 2014.
In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 64 points, or
0.37%, to 17,748. The S&P 500 rose 6 points, or 0.3%, to 2,065, with health
care leading five sectors higher and energy the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq
composite rose 60 points, or 0.57%, to 4,897. Gold is seen trading about 1%
lower, crude oil is seen trading about 3.5% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen
trading about 0.1% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Thursday, there were 2,902
contracts traded, up from 1,285 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest –
the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 23 contracts to
13,149.
Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Apr 01, 2016
Asia rice sellers kept their quotes
unchanged Today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at
around $365 - $375 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Vietnam 5% rice shown
at around $375 - $385 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380
per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $340 -
$350 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at
around $355 - $365 per ton, about $5 per ton discount to Vietnam 25% rice shown
at around $360- $370 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $335- $345
per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 -
$320 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is
indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $355 - $365 per ton, about $50 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled
rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is
indicated at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India's 100% broken rice
is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to Pakistan
broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
Global Rice Quotes
April 4th, 2016
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 375-385 ↔
Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↓
India 5% broken 370-380 ↔
Pakistan 5% broken 340-350 ↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔
Cambodia 5% broken 450-460 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 440-450
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 435-445 ↔
Argentina 5% broken 425-435 ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 355-365 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 355-365 ↓
Pakistan 25% broken 310-320 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 430-440 ↔
India 25% broken 335-345 ↔
U.S. 15% broken (sacked) 470-480 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd NQ ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 480-490 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 490-510 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 665-675 ↔
Vietnam Jasmine 465-475 ↓
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 760-770 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 330-340 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 345-355 ↓
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 270-280 ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 315-325
↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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