Rising hope for economy
Higher farm, oil prices spur upbeat forecast
- 22 Jun 2016 at 04:00 1,270 viewed1 comments
- NEWSPAPER SECTION: BUSINESS | WRITER: PHUSADEE ARUNMAS & PIYACHART MAIKAEW
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The business sector is feeling upbeat about economic
prospects and predicts the economy is likely to gain recovery pace in the
second half of the year, based on improving automotive and motorcycle sales as
well as higher farm prices.
Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
(TCC), said farmers' purchasing power had improved following a rise in key farm
prices and oil prices in recent months.The price of paddy with 15% moisture, for instance, rose 3.87% in May to 8,074 baht a tonne from 7,773 baht in March, with third-grade rubber sheet up 36% in May to 54.12 baht per kilogramme from 39.78 baht, and fresh palm nuts up 16.4% to 5.24 baht per kg from 4.50 baht.
The price of raw sugar increased 15.9% to 17.79 US cents per pound from 15.35 cents.
However, the price of tapioca remained low largely due to a flood of output from neighbouring countries.
Mr Isara said a recent online survey of the chamber's members in the provinces found farmers' income had improved, reflected by higher motorcycle and car sales in May, while global crude oil prices were unlikely to see any further drop and stay stable at US$50-60 per barrel.
"We strongly believe that the economy will recover in the second half," he said.
"Every increase of 1,000 baht per tonne in the rice price is estimated to help generate about 30 billion baht, while every 10-baht increase in the rubber price will raise about 40 billion baht more for the country's economic system.
"We estimate about 100 billion baht will be generated once higher prices of other farm products are included. This will be another key factor to boost the economic recovery in the second half."
The government's investment in infrastructure products and accelerated budget disbursement were other key drivers, Mr Isara said.
The TCC forecasts the economy will grow by 3.3% in the second half from about 3.2% in the first half, boosting economic growth to 3.2-3.5% for the whole year.
Nonetheless, Mr Isara said the business sector remained concerned about delayed credit line extensions by financial institutions, China's fragile economy and the impact of drought and late rainfall that might affect productivity in the farm sector.
The sector is also worried about the impact of the termination of the Generalised System of Preferences in European countries, plus the issue of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.
Mr Isara believes exports will also improve in the second half in line with higher oil and farm prices.
Exports are predicted to increase 2.6% in the second half, leading shipments for the whole year to bounce back to growth of 0.8% after falling continuously over the last three years.
Wallop Vitanakorn, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said exports were projected to contract by 2% in the first half after shrinking 1.24% in the first four months of the year to $69.4 billion.
"I think the situation remains very cloudy, as all major importers such as the United States, European Union, Japan and China remain in economic trouble," he said.
Monsoon advances to Kashmir, likely to cover entire country much before July 15 schedule
By
Jayashree
Bhosale, ET Bureau | Jun 22, 2016, 04.37 AM IST
READ
MORE ON » Monsoon
| Kharif
| kashmir
| India Meteorological Department
| El
Nino
Monsoon advances to Kashmir, likely to cover
entire country much before July 15 schedule
PUNE:
Monsoon has
galloped to Kashmir,
covering a vast stretch of the country in just three days, and is poised to
extend to the rest of India well before the normal mid-July date.
However, rainfall so far has been relatively weak. Weather scientists said the effect of El Nino, which disrupted last year's monsoon, has lingered for a few weeks even though the adverse phenomenon is now reversing, setting the stage for much heavier rainfall in the weeks ahead.
"Monsoon is likely to cover the entire country much before its normal date of July 15. Currently, it is lacking in rainfall in parts like interior Maharashtra, Telangana, etc.," said Sunitha Devi, director (weather forecast) at the India Meteorological Department in Pune. Rainfall is deficient in the Gangetic West Bengal as well.
On Tuesday, monsoon covered all of Maharashtra, most parts of west and east Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and the entire Jammu and Kashmir. While Uttarakhand and Himachal were getting widespread to fairly widespread rainfall, there was not much rain in Jammu and Kashmir. Delhi has been getting good pre-monsoon showers, which are likely to decrease.
"It is a 'weak advance' of the monsoon. Rainfall is sporadic," said an IMD scientist, who did not want to be named.
Though sowing operations have started with one or two rains, including the nursery sowing of paddy, the key kharif foodgrain crop, July rains will play the crucial role in the prospect of the crops. Paddy transplanting, which will happen in July, needs standing water in the fields.
El Nino, which had adversely impacted previous two consecutive monsoon seasons of India, has become neutral. However, meteorologists said it has become neutral only in terms of the sea surface temperatures. The atmospheric features will still take some time to fall back to their normal flows.
"Currently, there is no organised flow pattern as the lower and upper level flow features are not coupled," said Sunitha Devi. As the IMD had forecast, June rainfall is expected to be below normal. In a normal monsoon year, at least one low pressure system or a depression is formed, which gives good rainfall. However, this year, not a single low pressure or depression has formed and the next circulation in the making is also a feeble one.
"As the effects of the strong El Nino reduce, we expect the normal pattern of monsoon, in which rains happen every seven to 10 days, to establish," said B Mukhopadhyay, head of the weather office in Pune.
However, rainfall so far has been relatively weak. Weather scientists said the effect of El Nino, which disrupted last year's monsoon, has lingered for a few weeks even though the adverse phenomenon is now reversing, setting the stage for much heavier rainfall in the weeks ahead.
"Monsoon is likely to cover the entire country much before its normal date of July 15. Currently, it is lacking in rainfall in parts like interior Maharashtra, Telangana, etc.," said Sunitha Devi, director (weather forecast) at the India Meteorological Department in Pune. Rainfall is deficient in the Gangetic West Bengal as well.
On Tuesday, monsoon covered all of Maharashtra, most parts of west and east Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and the entire Jammu and Kashmir. While Uttarakhand and Himachal were getting widespread to fairly widespread rainfall, there was not much rain in Jammu and Kashmir. Delhi has been getting good pre-monsoon showers, which are likely to decrease.
"It is a 'weak advance' of the monsoon. Rainfall is sporadic," said an IMD scientist, who did not want to be named.
Though sowing operations have started with one or two rains, including the nursery sowing of paddy, the key kharif foodgrain crop, July rains will play the crucial role in the prospect of the crops. Paddy transplanting, which will happen in July, needs standing water in the fields.
El Nino, which had adversely impacted previous two consecutive monsoon seasons of India, has become neutral. However, meteorologists said it has become neutral only in terms of the sea surface temperatures. The atmospheric features will still take some time to fall back to their normal flows.
"Currently, there is no organised flow pattern as the lower and upper level flow features are not coupled," said Sunitha Devi. As the IMD had forecast, June rainfall is expected to be below normal. In a normal monsoon year, at least one low pressure system or a depression is formed, which gives good rainfall. However, this year, not a single low pressure or depression has formed and the next circulation in the making is also a feeble one.
"As the effects of the strong El Nino reduce, we expect the normal pattern of monsoon, in which rains happen every seven to 10 days, to establish," said B Mukhopadhyay, head of the weather office in Pune.
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