Exclusive Special Article!

New Paddy Season in Pakistan

 

14 September,2020

Contributor :Dr. Hamid Malik

 

New Paddy arrival has started, in fact Coarse varieties like Super fine is already in the market for the last couple of weeks. New Super fine is healthy , hope, milling recovery, a key economic factor, will be better. Same is for hybrid Paddy , reaching to peak arrival gradually. Some farmers have 90/100 maunds Paddy output which means a healthy return for farmers. I was a bit worried on Super fine Paddy rates(started 1600/1700/40 kg & Hybrid 1350/40 kg, very high for hybrid Paddy keeping in view Indian competition. Exporters have bought Rs57/kg ex Karachi last week.

Better sense prevailed & Hybrid Paddy price on 27 August came down to 1225/1250 per 40 kg & Miller's sold to Karachi based Exporters at 58.5 ex Karachi means FOB 274$/ton ,a competitive price to compete lowest offers from India. But much lower than Vietnam & Thailand. I guess Pakistan Rice Exporters will be able to sell like 250,000/300,000 or even more tons in next 3 weeks or by end of September. The prevailing price of Non Basmati in Pakistan is a win situation for Exporters & Miller's also & is a workable level for Pak Non Basmati Exporters. Miller's should try to keep Hybrid Paddy buying at 1200/40 kg level & should not start a price war due to lucrative international prices. I believe global Export market will remain bullish till end of September as from October onward new arrival in Thailand & Vietnam will start, Myanmar &  Cambodia , so far, has good standing  crops & prices may come down heavily in November onward. One plus point is that global production of milled rice will remain less than 500 million Tons(495 tons precisely ,mainly due to lower area of Paddy in Thailand & damage caused by floods in Bangladesh.

 India is going to have a big crop back to back & is also sitting on huge rice stocks. Pakistan is expected to make new record of 7.6 million tons this year. Movement of Pak RS is very critical for export earnings. I Will be able to comment next week. Very important is Paddy crop in Sind. Recent heavy rain in Mirpurkhas, Sangarh, Lower Sind might have get damaged in some area. Production figure will be reviewed in next 10 days. Non Basmati crop in Punjab is so far healthy but rain will continue in Sept also which is bad for Non Basmati & good for BASMATI. In my opinion this is best time to cover your position in Non Basmati NOW.

 

 

Thanks Allah, this year Owing to above average rains,  favorable weather, Technical/financial & logistics support of global institutions like Mars Foods/Sustainable Rice Platform & untiring /sustainable efforts of Hybrid Seed Research/Marketing Companies lead by Guard Agriculture Research , Hybrid production of Paddy is 4 tons to 4.4 tons /Acer(9.9/10.9 tons/hectare) in Allahabad District Kasur Punjab. Hybrid Paddy is arriving since last 10 days nearing peak arrivals. This is phenomenal & prodigious performance by Hybrid Rice sector which will give 15/20% increase to Farmers income this year. This is a promising start of new Rice season(Sept to August) in Pakistan.

 

 

By accepting one fact that from last year ,Hybrid Seed has started encroaching our Basmati area. Farmers income & Financial empowerment is prime factor  to opt for Hybrid or Basmati/Basmati like varieties. Basmati(Super & 515) & Basmati like varieties(C1121, 1509, Kissan) has failed to increase Farmers income even by 10%. Super & 515 Basmati varities are max giving 43 mounds/Acer in best managed & most fertile Kalar area) & but Ave in Gujranwala Division, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad is 36/37 maunds ,which means  a Punjab Provincial average of these elite areas is 37/38 maunds average. Farmers sell their Paddy from last week of October to end of December. After that stockists hold it  & sell at higher rates.  Avearage realization of Basmati Paddy at Farm gate has been Rs2385/40 kg which means per Acer earning Rs2385 x 38maunds=Rs90,600. This is 145/150 days crop from sowing of Nursery. More costly input & water guzzling crop. Hybrid Paddy which is 70/80 days crop, its production this year (last 20 days) from Allahabad Chunian, Kangan pur, Mundi Ahmed Abad in District Kasur & Basirpur in Deepalpur) is 100/110 maunds per Acer. Crops started at 1300 came down 1150 & mostly at Rs1200/ 40 kg which means Rs114,000/Acer income, an increase of 20 % income of Farmers. So it's natural, logical & inevitable that Hybrid sowing will increase in Dist Kasure, Deepalpur, Okara, Arifwala, Pakpattan, Vehari, Nankana sahib, Sheikhupura gradually. One more reason for increased area of Hybrid Rice is Heat & drought resistant varieties , Farmers friendly after sales efforts/care by Hybrid Seed Cos. In case of Basmati Seed & crop management , because it's Govt sector seed, least post sowing care & follow up. Another factor is authenticity of Hybrid Seed. Below standard Hybrid Seed import can't be ruled out but it's negligible & importers & Brand sellers are accountable.

 

Another point raised above is Paddy crop devastation this year in Sind. Germination was excellent & weather remained favourable. But early down crop in Sangarh, Random Muhammad Khan ,Matli, Talhar belt which was ready for harvest got hit & heavy rains damaged by 15% standing crop, where expected production was 100 maunds/Acer in that belt. We r expecting 10/15 Crop damage overall in Sind but this has nothing to do with Seed quality. Due to Hybrid Paddy Sind Farmers income has doubled(traditional Irri 6 on right bank of Indus river a is 55 maund. Rate is same. Inspite of crop loss in Lower Sind, I m expecting a record production of milled Rice at 7.6 million tons to 8 million tons. Please look at post rain effected Paddy in Golarchi last week with milled Rice which had got damaged/amber color.                                         

I fear if we don't increase potential of our traditional Basmati, Super & 515 & Basmati like varieties C1121, 1509 etc, Farmers will shift to Hybrid Paddy even in Kalar & Basmati traditional areas.

                                                                                          

# # #