Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Dec 18, 2014
In India, scattered rains are expected in southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala
through Friday . Weather is expected to remain dry across the rest of India.
Weather is likely to remain dry in Bangladesh,
Pakistan, China and Thailand during the next three days.
Scattered rain showers are expected across
the majority of Indonesia on Thursday and
Friday. Last week rain showers in Java continued to boost moisture supplies for
main-season rice there.
Light rain is expected across Vietnam on Thursday and Friday.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Steady
Market as Holiday Mode Sets In
Dec 18, 2014
U.S. cash prices held steady today as
holiday mode begins to set in and market participants get ready for some much
needed time off. Analysts contend that farmers who needed to sell before the
end of the year have already done so and those that still have rice left to
sell are going to continue to hold out until prices improve or until they
absolutely need to sell.
In the meantime, the USDA reported that
cumulative net export sales for the week ending on December 11th,
totaled 78,000 tons, which was 10% lower than last week and 7% lower than the
prior 4-week average. Increases reported for the following destinations
including: 24,000 tons to Japan, 13,300 tons to Mexico, 9,500 tons to Haiti,
9,500 tons to Panama, and 4,500 tons to Canada.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 39,500 tons,
which was 64% lower than last week and 50% lower than the prior 4-week average.
The primary destinations included: 16,700 tons to Mexico, 12,000 tons to
Japan, 3,100 tons to Canada, 2,100 tons to Honduras, and 1,700 tons to Saudi
Arabia.
Relaxed Financing Norms May Boost U.S.
Rice Exports to Cuba
Dec 18, 2014
The U.S' latest stance to relax
restrictions on food items from the 50-year embargo with Cuba is likely to
increase U.S. exports of agricultural products, including rice, with the
Caribbean nation, according to local sources.
Cuba imported about 30% of its annual rice
import needs from the U.S. between 2001, when USA Rice showcased the U.S. rice
at the Cuba International Trade Fair, and 2004. However, U.S. rice exports to
Cuba started declining till 2008 and have stopped since then due to certain
financing and banking restrictions imposed by the U.S. government with Cuba.The
U.S. has eased the existing financing and banking restrictions allowing for the
revival of rice trade with the Caribbean nation.The U.S. government earlier
required Cuban importers to pay "cash in advance" through a third
party before the product was shipped. Also the U.S. and Cuban banks were not
authorized to have direct relationships and the U.S. exporters were not allowed
to open bank accounts in Cuba. Due to these restrictions, export deals were
time taking, difficult as well as costly.The revised policy is expected to ease
these hurdles and allow for smoother transactions between the two countries. As
per the revised norms, Cuban importers can make payment while goods are in
transit and the U.S. firms will be allowed to open corresponding accounts at
Cuban financial institutions and banks to facilitate processing of authorized
transactions, sources at the White House were quoted as saying.
It seems to be a good news to rice
exporters as Cuba is one of the U.S' closest export destinations with less than
a day's travel from the Port of New Orleans in Louisiana state. Local sources
say rice farmers in the U.S. rice producing states of Arkansas and Louisiana
would benefit from the revised policy.
Cuba imports about 50% of its annual rice
consumption needs. USDA estimates Cuba to produce around 440,000 tons of milled
rice and import around 450,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (July - June) to meet
a consumption demand of around 890,000 tons. Cuba currently imports rice from
Brazil, India and Thailand.
Thailand, Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower
Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Dec 18, 2014
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes
for Hommali rice by about $10 per ton to around $890 - $900
per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by
about $15 per ton to around $395 - $405 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept
their quotes mostly unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 -
$415 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $385
- $395 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton, about
$15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around
$350 - $360 per ton, on par with Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360
per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $350 - $360, about $20 per ton
premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around
$405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $375 - $385 per
ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around
$395 - $405 per ton, down about $15 per ton from yesterday.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted
at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at
around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 -
$310 per ton, on par with Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $300 -
$310 per ton.
Pakistan FY 2014-15 Paddy Rice
Production Estimated at 8.437 Million Tons; Down 19% from Last Year
Dec 18, 2014
In the November Crop Monitoring System
Bulletin, the National Space Agency of Pakistan (SUPARCO) and UN’s Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO have estimated Pakistan FY 2014-15 (July - June)
paddy rice production to decline about 19% to around 8.437 million tons (around
5.65 million tons, basis milled) from around 10.04 million tons (around 6.72
million tons, basis milled) produced last year.The decline is attributed to
floods that hit the Punjab state in the month of August having damaged around
116,700 hectares of paddy fields. Over 217,000 tons of paddy is said to be lost
in the Punjab state. The government of Punjab has announced a compensation of
Rs.16 billion (around $159 million) to the flood-affected communities.
According to the report, harvesting of the
FY 2014-15 kharif rice crop (May - December) started at the end of October
across the country and coarse rice harvesting has been completed in all
provinces. Harvesting in basmati growing areas of North Eastern Punjab was at
its peak at the end of November. SUPARCO is estimating FY 2014-15 paddy rice
acreage at around 3.29 million hectares and yield at around 2.568 tons per
hectare.
According to SUPARCO, November remained the
most driest month of the year due to transition time from summer to winter
season. The amount of cumulative rainfall was much below normal in most parts
of the country.
Paddy prices of both non-basmati and
basmati dropped in November due to the ongoing harvests. Prices of basmati
dropped from Rs.4,500 - 4,800 per 40 kilograms (around $1,121 - $1,196 per ton)
in the beginning of November to around Rs.3,000 - Rs.3,200 per 40 kilograms
(around $747 - $797 per ton) by the end of the month. Prices of non-basmati
prices declined from Rs.900 - Rs.1,000 per 40 kilograms (around $224 - $249 per
ton) to around during the month Rs.200 - Rs.250 per 40 kilograms (around $48 -
$62 per ton)
USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15
(November - October) milled rice production to decline about 3% to around 6.5
million tons (around 9.75 million tons, basis paddy) from around 6.7 million
tons (around 10.05 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14.
China Imports 2 Million Tons of Rice in
First Ten Months of 2014, Up 7% from Last Year
Dec 18, 2014
China has imported around 2.014 million
tons of rice in the first ten months of 2014 (January - October), up about 7%
from around 1.874 million tons imported during the same period last year,
according to data from China Customs General Administration.In October 2014,
China imported around 180,000 tons of rice, unchanged from around 180,000 tons
imported in September 2014, and up about 26% from around 143,120 tons imported
in October 2013.China has exported around 345,369 tons of rice in January -
November 2014, down about 24% from around 455,970 tons exported during the same
period last year, according to data from the China Customs General
Administration.
In November 2014, China exported around
108,815 tons of rice, up about 89% from around 57,472 tons exported in October
2014 and over twice from around 50,700 tons exported in November 2013.
China imported about 2.267 million tons of
rice and exported about 478,400 tons of rice and in 2013.
USDA estimates China to produce around
144.5 million tons of rice, import around 4 million tons and export around
400,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (July - June).
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Lifeless as Market Drifts Sideways
Dec 18, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 0.5 cents per cwt
(about $0.11 per ton) lower at $12.110 per cwt (about $267 per ton). Rough rice
futures settled little changed today. The market found little in the way of
price direction despite a decent export sales report and support from the other
grains. Prices appear to be settling into a sideways trading range and will
likely continue to drift along through the remainder of the holiday season. The
other grains continued higher today; Soybeans closed about 0.8% higher at
$10.3500 per bushel; wheat finished about 1% higher at $6.5525 per bushel, and
corn finished the day about 0.7% higher at $4.1100 per bushel.
U.S. stocks surged on Thursday, extending Wall Street's best day of the
year, after the Federal Reserve said it would be patient in increasing interest
rates. Thursday data had jobless claims falling by 6,000 to 289,000 last week,
the lowest since early November. And, the Conference Board's index of leading
indicators advanced in November for a third consecutive month, signaling the
U.S. economy is picking up steam heading into the New Year. At or near session
highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 303.64 points, or 1.8%,
at 17,657.51. The S&P 500 advanced 35.57 points, or 1.8%, to 2,048.46, with
technology leading gains and all 10 of its major sectors rising. The Nasdaq
added 87.21 points, or 1.9%, to 4,730.52. Gold is trading about 0.1% higher,
crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading
about 0.2% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 2,442 contracts
traded, down from 2,514 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number
of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 310 contracts to 10,040.
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Trade Lower as Market Appears Unimpressed by Latest Export Sales
Report
Dec 18, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery
were trading 7 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $12.045 per cwt (about
$266 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen
trading higher: soybeans are currently seen 0.5% higher, wheat is listed about
1.8% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.4% higher.
U.S. stocks surged on Thursday, extending
Wall Street's best day of the year, after the Federal Reserve said it would be
patient in increasing interest rates and as crude furthered its rise. Thursday
data had jobless claims falling by 6,000 to 289,000 last week, the lowest since
early November. After a 267-point jump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
lately up 253.60 points, or 1.5%, at 17,610.47. The S&P 500 advanced 30.26
points, or 1.5%, to 2,043.15, with energy leading gains that included all 10 of
its major sectors. The Nasdaq added 69.45 points, or 1.5%, to 4,713.87. U.S.
stocks surged on Wednesday, with the Dow marking its best session of the year,
as investors celebrated a rally in the energy sector and the Federal Reserve's
pledge to be patient in raising interest rates. Gold is currently trading about
0.9% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 0.5% higher, and the U.S.
dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:40am Chicago time.
Thailand to Reclaim World's Top Rice
Exporter Position in 2014
Dec 18, 2014
In its latest Quarterly Rice Market Monitor
report, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has forecasted
Thailand to reclaim the world's top rice exporter status in 2014. Thailand,
which once enjoyed the top rice exporter status lost its position to India and
Vietnam due to the rice paddy pledging scheme, which was introduced by the
previous government.
Policy changes regarding the suspension of
rice paddy pledging scheme, inspection of rice stocks and sales of about 17
million tons of rice stocks have helped the South East Asian nation to regain
its lost competitiveness in the global market.
According to the FAO, Thai rice exports to
West and Southern African countries and Far Eastern nations have increased
significantly. The FAO is estimating Thailand's rice exports to increase about
53% y/y to around 10.2 million tons in 2014. The UN agency noted that Thai
exports will further increase to 11 million tons in 2015 despite a likely dent
in local production due to water shortages.
The FAO is forecasting India's rice exports
to decline about 5% y/y to around 10 million tons in 2014 and further decline
about 18% y/y to around 8.2 million tons in 2015. It is estimating rice exports
of Pakistan, Brazil, Guyana, Paraguay and Uruguay to increase substantially in
2014. But, it is forecasting exports of Vietnam, Cambodia and the U.S. to
decline during the year.
The UN agency estimates 2014 global rice trade
at around 40.5 million tons, up about 0.6% from around 40.2 million tons in
2013.
Witnesses in Thailand Rice Pledging
Case Need Protection from Parallel Lawsuits
Dec 18, 2014
Thailand's National Anti-Corruption
Commission (NACC) has urged the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) to protect
witnesses, including NACC officials involved in dealing with the rice pledging
case, from facing counterclaims or parallel law suits as that would deter them
from testifying accurately, according to local sources.
Speaking at joint meeting between the NACC
and OAG on Tuesday, the NACC Secretary General sought OAG help in speeding up
probes related to the rice pledging scheme rather than wait for complete
reports from the NACC. He added that it would reduce time lags in prosecution
procedures.The NACC Secretary General made these comments in the light of the
OAG seeking more evidence from the NACC to conclude the prosecution of the
former Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra in the controversial rice
pledging scheme. The Attorney General sought more evidences relating to
government-to-government (G2G) transactions with China.
In September this year, the OAG refused the NACC recommendation to indict
the former Prime Minister in the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders
of Political Positions seeking more evidences substantiating charges against
her. It also proposed that a panel comprising members from the OAG and the NACC
would work jointly to gather more evidences before deciding on the indictment
of the ex-PM. The former Prime Minister is facing charges of ignoring
warnings against misdealing in the controversial rice pledging scheme, which
brought losses of about 500 billion baht (around $15.6 billion) to the
exchequer.The NACC Secretary General said the Commission was ready to address
the opening of the ex-PM's case before the National Legislative Assembly on
January 9, 2015.
Global Rice Quotes
December
19th, 2014
Long
grain white rice - high quality
Thailand
100% B grade 415-425 ↓
Vietnam
5% broken 385-395 ↔
India
5% broken 385-395 ↔
Pakistan
5% broken 370-380 ↔
Cambodia
5% broken 460-470 ↔
U.S.
4% broken 510-520 ↔
Uruguay
5% broken 595-605 ↔
Argentina
5% broken 595-605 ↔
Long
grain white rice - low quality
Thailand
25% broken NQ ↔
Vietnam
25% broken 350-360 ↔
Pakistan
25% broken 330-340 ↔
Cambodia
25% broken 435-445 ↔
India
25% broken 350-360 ↔
U.S.
15% broken 495-505 ↔
Long
grain parboiled rice
Thailand
parboiled 100% stxd 400-410 ↓
Pakistan
parboiled 5% broken stxd 395-405 ↔
India
parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385 ↔
U.S.
parboiled 4% broken 580-590 ↔
Brazil
parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay
parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long
grain fragrant rice
Thailand
Hommali 92% 890-900 ↔
Vietnam
Jasmine 515-525 ↔
India
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan
basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia
Phka Mails 820-830 ↔
Brokens
Thailand
A1 Super 330-340 ↔
Vietnam
100% broken 330-340 ↔
Pakistan
100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔
Cambodia
A1 Super 385-395 ↔
India
100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔
Egypt
medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S.
pet food 390-400 ↔
Brazil
half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Indian Basmati Rice Farmers Hit Hard by
Volatile Global Politics
Dec 18, 2014
An unexpected and unprecedented decision by Iran to ban
rice imports temporarily has hurt Indian exporters very badly. Iran's basmati
rice exports from India have been increasing significantly for the last few
years. In 2013-14, Iran's basmati rice imports from India accounted for about
1.45 million tons or about 85% of its total rice imports of around 1.7 million
tons.In a way, it could be conceded that Iran's ban pertains majorly to India.
Iran seemed to reduce rice imports from India in a phased manner since February
this year.
In February, the Middle East nation revised the
acceptable level of arsenic in Indian basmati rice from around 150 parts per
billion (ppb) to around 120 ppb. Later in September, Iran increased import duty
on basmati rice from 22% to 45%. It imposed ban in November citing excess
stocks as reason.However, analysts say some politically motivated decisions are
playing a major role in Iran's stance. It is understood that Iran's officials
have been trying to arrange a meeting between the Iranian President and the
Indian Prime Minister for the last few months, but Indian authorities failed to
arrange for meeting twice saying schedule of Indian Prime Minister was not
permitting to do so. However, India's External Affairs Minister had reportedly
met the Iranian Prime Minister last month in Tajikistan.
Iran is an important market for India and constitutes
about 35% of India's basmati rice exports. Efforts by Indian exporters to
resume basmati rice imports by are reportedly unheard by the Iranian
authorities.Indian basmati rice farmers who are totally unaware of such
diplomatic reasons are worst sufferers. They increased total basmati rice
acreage in the 2014 kharif rice season (June - December) about 40% to around
3.5 million hectares from around 2.5 million hectares last year. According to
data from the Indian Agriculture Ministry, basmati rice output this year is
expected to reach around 8.5 million tons, up about 40% from around 6.25
million tons produced last year.
Farmers are getting very low prices due to declining
export demand. According to local sources, Pusa 1509 is fetching around
Rs.2,300-2,700 per quintal (around $376 - $441 per ton) and Pusa 1121 is
fetching around Rs.3,000 per quintal (around $490 per ton). Farmers are getting
prices as low as Rs.1,500 - 2,000 per quintal (around $245 - $327 per ton) for
other varieties of basmati.
Basmati rice exporters are also urging the Indian
government to help them absorb the losses occurring due to fall in basmati rice
prices as well as exports by way of restoration of the Rupee Export Credit
Interest Subvention Scheme that was discontinued after March 31 2014. Under an
interest subvention scheme, the government offers loans to exporters at 7% per annum and offers an interest subsidy
of about 2% to exporters who make prompt repayment. They are also demanding the
government to enhance the interest subsidy under the scheme from the existing
2% to around 5%.
