Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tumble as
Traders Make Last Minute Changes to Holdings ahead of Tomorrow's USDA S&D
Update
Feb 09, 2016
Chicago rough rice
futures for Mar delivery settled 20 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) lower at
$10.920 per cwt (about $241 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower;
Soybeans closed about 0.6% lower at $8.6250 per bushel; wheat finished about
1.8% lower at $4.5850 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% lower at
$3.6225 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded
sharply lower on Monday as global growth concerns weighed on investors. Crude
prices resumed their downward trajectory, with WTI falling 3%, or 95 cents, to
$29.94 a barrel. Last week, U.S. oil fell about 6%.Chinese markets are closed
this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday. With no major economic data due
Monday, investors were looking ahead to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony in
Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Concerns of a Fed rate hike took center
stage Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added
151,000 jobs in January — below expectations — but wages rose 0.5%.Overseas,
European equities closed lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index dropping
3.5%.
The German DAX also
dipped below the 9,000 mark for the first time since October 2014. In afternoon
trading, the Dow Jones industrial average traded 341 points lower, or 2.1%, at
15,859. The S&P 500 fell 40 points, or 2.15%, to 1,839, as materials and
financials led all 10 sectors lower. The Nasdaq dropped 122 points, or 2.8%, to
trade at 4,240. Gold is seen trading about 3.6% higher, crude oil is seen
trading about 2.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% lower
at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Friday, there were 765
contracts traded, up from 552 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the
number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 337 contracts to 13,196.
Bangladesh Considers Importing Hybrid Rice Seeds from India
Feb 08, 2016
Bangladesh's
Agriculture Ministry may import seeds of hybrid rice varieties from India, the
Daily Star quoted the Director General of the Ministry’s Seed Wing. The
Ministry is reportedly considering some popular rice varieties grown in India,
and imported by Bangladeshi farmers through border trade.
Speaking at the
discussion “Promoting climate adaptive technology through advocacy and
communication” in BRAC Center Inn, he noted that the Ministry's seed wing would
formally import Indian hybrid rice seeds if it finds producing those at home
was not profitable. The discussion was organised by Brac's “Advocacy for Social
Change” programme and Brac University's “Center for Climate Change and
Environment Research.”
The discussion also
focused on the lags in the government’s research on climate-resilient rice
varieties and the need for improving the same.
Some speakers noted
that local varieties aimed at tackling climate change were not meeting ground
realties and reaching farmers on time. They have expressed concern that the
current salinity tolerant rice variety is capable of tolerating 8 ppt (parts
per thousand) of salinity while the salinity in coastal areas had reached 10
ppt and higher. They, therefore, highlighted the need for the non-government
sector and the government to work together to take new technologies to the
field level. They also urged the government to ensure just prices for farmers.
BRAC is a development
organization based in Bangladesh. It aims to alleviate poverty by empowering
the local people.
Iran to Support Large-Scale Rice Production in East African Region
Feb 08, 2016
Iran is planning to
support large-scale rice, corn and wheat production in Kenya, Uganda and
Tanzania, according to Iran's television network Press TV.
More than 10 Iranian
companies have expressed interest in growing and processing rice, corn and
wheat in East Africa, the Iranian Ambassador to Kenya was quoted. He noted that
the companies have expressed interest in establishing manufacturing plants in
the region to help boost its rice production and exports.
However, in return,
Iran is expected to seek more processed goods imports from the East African
Community (EAC).
The EAC mainly exports
unprocessed agricultural products like tea, coffee and meat to Iran, and
imports oil products, machinery and telecommunication equipment from Iran.
Analysts say, the
proposal by Iran is useful to the EAC countries in two ways. One, in terms of
increased food security, jobs, and higher farmers' incomes. Two, the trade
deficit with the Middle East nation can be lowered significantly.
“The lifting of
sanctions on Iran will pave the way for EAC member states to forge closer ties
with Iran, but we need to export value-added products if we are to tilt the
balance of trade in our favour,” the Director-General of Customs and Trade at
the EAC was quoted.
President of India Calls for More Research in Climate-Resilient Rice
Varieties
Feb 08, 2016
The President of India
has highlighted the need for more research in developing climate-resilient rice
varieties, which can withstand extreme weather conditions such as droughts,
floods and cyclones, according to local sources.
Speaking at the 54th
convocation of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), he noted that
nearly 80% of India's cultivable land is still exposed to severe climatic
conditions despite the advancements made so far. He noted that the total food
grain production declined about 5% to around 253 million tons in the crop year
2014-15 from a record 265 million tons in crop year 2013-14 due to a 12%
deficit in rainfall.
“Nature has not been
kind to us this year as well. A deficient monsoon followed by a further dry
spell is likely to affect agricultural production for the second year in a row.
This is an area of grave concern,” he was quoted. “Institutes like IARI must
leverage opportunities from frontier sciences such as bio-technology, synthetic
biology, nano-technology, computational biology, sensor technology and
geo-spatial technology to develop climate-resilient technology solutions,” he
added.
Talking about the
degrading soil health and dwindling fresh water sources, he said: “It is
heartening to note that several water-wise technologies like precision
irrigation, Pusa Hydrogel, zero tillage wheat system, direct seeded rice
system, and short duration crop varieties have been developed by IARI.
Scientists here must continue with their efforts to develop water-efficient and
drought-tolerant varieties.”
He also highlighted
the need for developing bio-fortified rice varieties, which can help address
the problem of under-nourishment in most of the children in the country.
The President also
noted that the government should support these institutes with sufficient funds
and technical assistance.He complimented the IARI specifically for developing
early maturing and high yielding Pusa basmati varieties, which have increased
the country’s basmati export potential as well as helped in raising the incomes
of farmers.
Vietnam Rice
Exports Increase Sharply in January 2016
Feb 08, 2016
Vietnam exported about
416,770 million tons of rice in January, 2016, up about 89% from about 220,388
tons rice exported in January 2015, and down about 45% from about 760,993 tons
rice exported in December 2015, according to data from the Vietnam Food
Association (VFA). The . The average export price so far in January stands at
about $407.5 per ton, down about 9% per ton from a year ago.
In 2015, Vietnam
exported about up about 6.568 million tons, up about 4% from about 6.33 million
tons of rice exported in 2014.
Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Most of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice
Quotes Unchanged
Feb 08, 2016
Pakistan rice sellers
lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice
by about $15 per ton, $5 per ton and $10 per ton to around $330-$340 per ton,
$305-$315 per ton and $280-$290 per ton, respectively, today. Thailand and
Vietnam rice sellers are out today on account of a holiday. India rice sellers
kept their quotes unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is
indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at
around $360 - $370 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown
at around $330 - $340 per ton.
25% Broken
Rice
Thailand 25% rice is
indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at
around $325 - $335 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
shown at around $305 - $315 per ton.
Parboiled
Rice
Thailand parboiled
rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $55 per ton discount to Pakistan
parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken
Rice
Thailand broken rice,
A1 Super is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per ton premium
on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $320 - $330 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $260 - $270 per ton, about $20 per ton discount
to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Oryza January 2016 Rice Market Review
Feb 09, 2016
The Oryza White Rice
Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the
month at about $386 per ton, down about $2 per ton from a month ago and down
about $36 per ton from a year ago.
The World Bank
forecasts the global rice production in 2015-16 to decline marginally to 470
million tons from 478 million tons last year due to weakening output prospects
in Asia, particularly in India, the Philippines, and Thailand, the world’s top
rice exporter. It forecasts average rice prices to remain below $400 per ton in
2016 and up to 2020. The bank forecasts rice prices to average $370 per
ton in 2016 and $374 per ton in 2017. It also forecasts rice prices to average
$379 per ton, $383 per ton and $387 per ton in 2018, 2019 and 2020,
respectively.
Meanwhile, the FAO
forecasts 2015-16 global rice production at around 491.8 million tons, slightly
down from an estimated 494.3 million tons in 2014-15, and slightly up from its
last month's forecast of around 491.4 million tons. The FAO forecasts improved
production outlook in China, Vietnam and the U.S., with lower production
prospects in Japan and Nepal. The agency estimates 2016 global rice trade at
around 45.4 million tons, up about 1.4% from an estimated 44.8 million tons
last year, and slightly up from its last month's forecast of around 45 million
tons. The FAO expects greater purchases by China and Indonesia in 2016.
Despite a soft demand,
rice export quotes in Thailand tended to firm, reflecting mainly the thinning
of supplies in private hands and expectations of much smaller than usual crop
arrivals in the coming months. Prices in Pakistan were also up in January, on
improved expectations for sales to China, the Near East and Africa. By contrast
export prices lowered in India, influenced by a weaker Rupee. Rice prices were
also down in Viet Nam, ahead of the imminent harvest of the winter/spring crop.
In the Americas, prices moved down in the U.S. on limited buying interest, the
rice prices also down in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, due to a depreciation
of local currencies.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken
rice ended the month of January quoted at about $370 per ton, up about $20 per
ton from a month ago and down about $35 per ton from a year ago.
The President of the
Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has projected the country's total rice
exports at about 9 million tons in 2016, down about 8% from about 9.79 million
tons in 2015. The Honorary President of the TREA is estimating the 2016 white
rice exports to decline about 7% to about 4.9 million tons from about 5.26
million tons in 2015. He noted that exports of Thai Hom Mali fragrant rice are
expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons this in 2016 from about 1.99 million
tons in 2015 because demand for premium rice in the world market is expected to
fall given the global economic slowdown. He has estimated Thai parboiled rice
exports will fall to 2.2 million tons this year from 2.32 million last year
because the economies of African countries remained in poor condition and are
buying cheaper parboiled rice from India. Thai 2015 rice exports declined about
10.7% to about 9.8 million tons from about 10.97 million tons in 2014. The TREA
reported that Thailand lost its top rice exporter status to India, which
exported about 10.23 million tons in 2015.
Separately, Thailand
has signed four agreements to sell about 300,000 tons of rice worth 4.3 million
baht (about $121 million) to Iran, Reuters quoted the Commerce Minister.
The government of
Thailand is planning to reduce the rice production to match the local
consumption and exports, with the goal of reducing carryover. The official
noted that the annual local and export demand is currently at about 25 million
tons (basis paddy), while the average annual production stands at about 31-32
million tons. Meanwhile, Thai rice farmers, millers, exporters, and traders
have reportedly supported the government's decision to slash 2016 paddy rice
production. Separately, the government of Thailand has ruled out any kind of
compensation or state assistance to farmers defying its order on banning the
second/off-season rice crop planting this year. In November 2015, the
government announced a ban on second crop planting due to extending drought
conditions and critical water levels in reservoirs.
TREA forecasts that
rice prices may increase by about 10% in the first quarter of 2016 as drought
cuts output significantly. Thai 2016 milled rice output from the main crop
(harvested between April and September) is estimated to decline by about 4-5
million tons. The government of Thailand has hiked the paddy rice output goal
for the 2016-17 crop year to about 27.17 million tons from the earlier target
of 25 million tons based on higher demand estimates.
Separately, Thailand
will sell 570,000 tons of stockpiled rice on February 16 and 17 for human
consumption and industrial use, the Commerce Permanent Secretary said. She
noted that: "the size of the first auction of ‘good rice’ will be about
204,000 tons while the second lot will be about 360,000 tons." Warehouses
storing the rice will be open for inspection from February 2 to 10, 2016, said
the official.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice
ended the month of January shown at about $355 per ton, down about $10 per ton
from a month ago and down about $5 per ton from a year ago.
Vietnam exported about
314,706 million tons of rice in January 1-28, 2016, up about 43% from about
220,388 tons rice exported in January 2015, and about half of about 760,993
tons of rice exported in December 2015, according to data from the Vietnam Food
Association (VFA). In 2015, Vietnam exported about 6.568 million tons, up about
4% from about 6.33 million tons of rice exported in 2014. The VFA also is expecting
better prospects for Vietnam's rice exports in 2016 compared to the same period
last year with contracts of about 1.3 million tons carried forward from last
year as well as renewed demand from large and regular markets. Meanwhile, The
Chairman of the VFA expressed concern that the recent decision by the
government of Thailand to auction 570,000 tons of stockpiled rice would lead to
a decline in world rice prices and may negatively impact Vietnam rice exports.
USDA Post forecasts Vietnam's 2016 rice exports at about 6 million tons, down
about 8% from an estimated 6.5 million tons last year and down from USDA's
official estimate of about 7.1 million tons due to an expected low carry-over
stocks from MY 2014-15 (January-December 2015).
The government of Vietnam
has decided to cut tariffs on a number of goods, including rice, cooked poultry
& birds, eggs and, sugarcane/refined sucrose, imported from Laos as per the
Circular 216/2015/TT-BTC by the Ministry of Finance, according to local
sources. The tariffs will be reduced by 50% under the ASEAN Trade in Goods
Agreement (ATIGA). Laos does not officially export rice to Vietnam. However,
several tons of paddy and rice are exported unofficially to Vietnam through
borders.
The USDA estimates
Vietnam's 2015-16 (January-December 2016) paddy rice production to reach about
45.056 million tons (about 28.38 million tons, basis milled), down from an
estimated 45.175 million tons (about 28.46 million tons) last year and down
from the USDA's official estimate of about 45.12 million tons (about 28.43
million tons, basis milled) due to the larger planted and harvested area of
winter crop from low level flooding in the Mekong River Delta (MRD).
Separately, the government of Vietnam is planning to cut the paddy rice acreage
by about 100,000 hectares in 2016 to grow other grains used as animal feed,
local sources quoted the Agriculture Minister.
Cambodia,
Myanmar & Laos
Cambodia 5% broken rice ended the month of January shown at about
$430 per ton, unchanged from a month ago, and down about $15 per ton from a
year ago. Cambodia has exported about 538,396 tons of milled rice in 2015
(January - December), up about 39% from about 387,061 tons exported during the
same period last year, according to the data from the Agriculture Ministry.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of Cambodia has expressed optimism that the
country will succeed in supplying rice to the Philippines this year by
competing with Thailand and Vietnam, according to Khmer Times. Three Chinese
firms have reportedly proposed to invest about $400 million in a project to
develop rice warehousing facilities in Cambodia. The project is reportedly part
of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) drafted by the Cambodian government
seeking a loan of about $300 million to build about 10 warehouses, capable of
storing about 1.2 million tons of paddy/rice, in the country, according to the
Project Leader and Senior Advisor to the Supreme National Economic Council.
Separately, an official from the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) said that the
government of Cambodia should invest about $550 million the rice production and
supply chain to achieve the one million ton export target. The official noted
that the CRF requires at least 2.5 million tons of paddy, including both
fragrant and white types, to process one million tons of milled rice for
exports. He also noted that advanced storage facilities are also required to
achieve the goal.
Myanmar 5% broken rice ended the month of January indicated at
about $420 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a month and a year ago.
Myanmar exported about 830,000 tons of rice in the first ten months of FY
2015-16 (April 2015 - January 2016), down about 15% from about 980,000 exported
during the same period last year. In terms of earnings, Myanmar's rice exports
declined about 17% to about $308 million during the ten-month period from about
$370 million last year. Myanmar exported about 1.8 million tons of rice in FY
2014-15 and aimed to export over 2 million tons this fiscal year. Separately,
Myanmar rice sector is not in a position to take advantage of increasing
overseas demand due to certain production barriers such as inadequate capital,
a failure to apply technology, weaknesses in transportation capacity and the
limited availability of crop strains, the Secretary-General of the Myanmar Rice
Federation (MRF) said.
The government of Laos
is aiming to produce 4.2 million tons of paddy rice in 2016 to ensure adequate
supply for domestic consumption and exports, according to the Ministry of
Agriculture and Forestry. The Ministry noted that it plans to allocate 2.1
million tons for domestic consumption, one million tons for exports, and
640,000 tons for processing, 400,000 tons for reserves, and 60,000 tons for
seeding purposes. Separately, Laos rice farmers are seeking to explore new
export markets after the country officially received order to export about
8,000 tons of rice to China.
Philippines
The USDA Post
forecasts the Philippines MY 2015-16 (May 2015 - April 2016) rice imports at
about 2.1 million tons, up about 17% from about 1.8 million tons in MY 2014-15
and USDA's official estimates of about 1.8 million tons. The increase in
imports forecast is based on the government's earlier estimations that 1.3
million tons of milled rice needs to be imported in 2016 to cover losses from
Typhoon Koppu and to strengthen stocks as the El Nino dry spell is expected to
intensify through mid-2016. Meanwhile, the government of the Philippines has
decided to defer the plan to import 400,000 tons of rice for delivery in the
second quarter of 2016 as there is enough supply of the grain. The official
earlier noted that the committee may approve imports of another 400,000 tons
apart from the already approved 500,000 tons for the first quarter of 2016.
Separately, the Philippines Agriculture Minister noted that quantitative
restrictions (QRs) on rice imports are currently needed to protect local
farmers from cheap imports, but a further extension of QRs is likely to prove
costly for the government.
The USDA forecasts the
Philippines MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at about 18.298 million tons, down
from about 18.913 million tons last year and up from USDA's official estimates
of about 17.857 million tons. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
estimates the Philippines 2015 paddy rice production at about 18.15 million
tons, down about 4.31% from about 18.97 million tons in 2014. Based on the
standing crop situation, the PSA estimates the Philippines 2016 first half
paddy rice production at about 8.2 million tons from about 2.02 million
hectares. The agency estimates the January - March 2016 paddy production at
about 4.15 million tons, down about 4.98% from about 4.37 million tons in
2015. Meanwhile, the Philippines Agriculture Secretary is estimating the
2016 paddy rice production to fall below the 2015 level of about 18.15 million
tons due to the prevailing drought conditions.
Separately, the
Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) has set the 2016 paddy rice
production target at about 19 million tons, but may not be adequate to fulfil
the country’s rice self-sufficiency goal. The DA has also introduced a new
drought resistant and high yielding rice variety to cope with the effects of El
Nino induced dry conditions, according to a press release on its website.
Meanwhile, the Economic Planning Secretary of the Philippines said that the
government must focus on achieving rice self-sufficiency as the El Nino impact
on rice production has been lesser than expected.
China
The government of
China has announced 2016 minimum purchase prices for rice, Reuters quoted the
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
The Chinese government
has reportedly lowered the price for early season indica rice to about 2,660
yuan (about $404) per ton from about 2,700 yuan (about $410) per ton in 2015.
It retained the purchase prices of mid to late season rice and japonica rice at
2015 levels of about 2,760 yuan (about $420) per ton and 3,100 yuan (about
$471) per ton respectively.
China has started
importing from Laos and the first shipment of rice imports from the south-east
Asian nation have passed through inspection and quarantine procedures at South
China's Shenzhen port, according to Xinhua Net.
Separately, China's
National Rice Research Institute (NRRI) is planning to promote exports of
hybrid rice seeds in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America over the next
five years as part of the 13th five year plan (2016-2020).
South Korea is planning to begin rice exports to China in February
2016 after both the governments agreed on a set of quarantine requirements
after the South Korea-China summit talks in October last year.
India
India 5% broken rice
ended the month of January quoted at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a month
ago, and down about $40 per ton from a year ago. Separately, India
average wholesale rice prices which declined in October 2015 with the beginning
of the kharif (June - December) rice harvest, have been increasing since
November 2015 on concerns of lower output due to El Nino-induced below-average
monsoon rains in many rice growing areas. Average monthly wholesale rice prices
in India increased to about Rs.2,866.27 per quintal (about $427 per ton ) in
January 2016, up about 8% from about Rs.2,645,06 per quintal (about $399 per
ton) in December 2015, and up about 1% from their year-ago levels of about
Rs.2,836 per quintal (about $448 per ton).
Experts are expecting
India's rice exports in FY 2015-16 (April - March) to decline significantly due
to reduced demand from major importers such as Iran and Nigeria. Separately, the
government of India is likely to strike a one million ton rice export deal
worth Rs.3, 000 crore (about $443 million) with Indonesia shortly, according to
local sources.
Based on the current
pace of rice procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the
government agencies, analysts are forecasting that India’s government rice
procurement in KMS 2015-16 (October 2015 - September 2016) may exceed last
year's level of 32 million tons, according to the Press Trust of India. The
government targets to procure 30 million tons of rice this year. Meanwhile, the
Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement
and distribution has procured about 24.47 million tons of rice so far in KMS
2015-16 (October 2015 - September 2016), up about 24% from about 19.66 million
tons last year.
India 2015-16
winter/rabi rice (November - May) planting area has reached about 2.241 million
hectares as of January 28, 2016, down about 7% from about 2.408 million
hectares planted during the same period in 2014-15, according to a press
release by the Ministry of Agriculture. Separately, Water scarcity in
India's largest rice growing state Punjab is threatening the continuation of
rice production. According latest data, Punjab has contributed a record 9.35
million tons of rice to the Central Pool in KMS 2015-16 (October - September)
breaking the 9.275 million tons in KMS 2009-10.
India-based
Intellectual Property Appellate Board (IPAB) has passed the order allowing the
Geographical Indications (GI) tag to Indian basmati rice. The move is said to
provide a legal protection to India's basmati rice.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken
rice ended the month of January shown at about $345 per ton, up about $10 per
ton from a month ago and down about $15 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA Post
forecasts Pakistan's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at about 6.9 million
tons, unchanged from USDA's official estimates. The Post reports that Pakistan
exported about 4.1 million tons in MY 2014-15 (November 2014-October 2015), up
from USDA's official estimates of about 4 million tons. Meanwhile, Pakistan and
Indonesia have finalized a one-million ton rice agreement under which Pakistan
will export one million tons of rice worth $400 million over the next four
years.
The Chairman of the
Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) said that Pakistan basmati rice
exports are severely impacted by cheaper rival supplies from India. “India’s
competitive rice prices have helped the country in grabbing a bigger share of
the global market and increasing exports,” he said. Pakistan's basmati rice
varieties are currently quoted at $950 per ton to $1,100 per ton, while Indian
basmati rice varieties are quoted at about $720 per ton to $850 per ton.
Meanwhile he has called for appropriate currency transfer arrangements between
the two countries to facilitate exports to Iran.
Pakistan exported
about 2.05 million tons of rice (including 189,084 tons of basmati and 1.87
tons of non-basmati) in the first six months of FY 2015-16 (July - December),
up about 15% from about 1.53 million tons (251,496 tons of basmati and 1.1
million tons of non-basmati) exported during the same period in FY 2014-15,
according to provisional data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
Sri Lanka has granted
duty free access to 102 products from Pakistan, including basmati rice, oranges
and engineering goods, as part of a free trade agreement (FTA).
Bangladesh
The USDA Post
forecasts Bangladesh's MY 2015-16 (May - April) milled rice production at about
34.6 million tons, slightly up from last year's 34.5 million tons, and
unchanged from USDA's official estimates. It is forecasting this year's imports
at about 600,000 tons, unchanged from USDA's official estimates but nearly half
of last year's imports of about 1.22 million tons. The USDA Post reports that
the Food Ministry recently revised procurement specifications for paddy rice,
milled rice, and wheat. Under the new specifications, the only registered
farmers can sell grain to the government on a first-come first-serve basis;
moreover, by 2016 all rice millers must use rubber rollers and polishers.
Separately, the
government of Bangladesh is planning to build five steel silos with total
capacity to store about 345,000 tons of rice. The government of Bangladesh is
also planning to sell about 1.5 million tons of rice and wheat at reduced
prices through open market sales program as the harvest time for 2015-16 Boro
rice crop (January - May) nears.
Indonesia
The USDA Post
forecasts Indonesia to import about 1.15 million tons in MY 2015-16 (January -
December 2016), down 15% from about 1.35 million tons in MY 2014-15 and down
from USDA's official estimates of about 1.6 million tons. Bulog needs to
maintain year-end stocks of about 2.5 million tons in 2015, but the stocks stood
at about 1.7 million tons at the end of September. The Post estimates
Indonesia's rice production at about 36.35 million tons (basis, milled) in MY
2015-16, down from about 35.56 million tons last year and up from USDA's
official estimates of 36.3 million tons.
The government of
Indonesia needs about 1.2 million tons of rice to maintain adequate stocks by
the end of March 2016, according to the National Development Planning Minister.
Meanwhile, the government of Indonesia is planning to lower 2016 paddy rice
output target to 75.13 million tons from last year's 76.23 million tons,
according to the Director General of Food Crops at Agriculture Ministry.
Separately, the
Indonesian Agriculture Minister has ruled out rice imports in 2016 citing the
Agriculture Ministry's reports that the current national stock of about 1.2
million tons was sufficient. He noted that another 3.5 million tons of rice
would be added to stocks following the February 2016 harvest.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's
state logistics agency Bulog has urged the government to fix its rice purchase
price (Harga pokok penjualan, HPP) in accordance with the prevailing market
prices.
Some senior government
officials and academic experts have expressed concern that data on Indonesia's
rice production and harvests is being inflated to prove that food-sufficiency
targets are being met, according to Reuters. They say most of the time,
agriculture officials manipulate data and show surplus production to present a
rosy picture to the government and attract farm subsidies. They noted that if
the numbers were correct, there would be no need for the government to import
urgently 1.5 million tons of rice from Vietnam and Thailand. However, the Agriculture
Ministry denied any manipulation saying it compiles rice data from several
regional and central government agencies.
Central &
South America
Brazil 5% broken rice ended the month of January at about $460 per
ton, up about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $80 per ton
from a year ago. The FAO forecasts Brazil's 2015 paddy rice production at about
12.44 million tons, up about 3% from about 12.122 million tons in 2014 due to
an increase in acreage as well as yields. FAO's projections are in contrast to
the country's National Grains Supply Company (Conab) projections. In its
January 2016 forecasts for rice production, Conab forecasts the country's
2015-16 paddy rice production at about 11.921 million tons (about 8 million
tons, basis milled), down about 6% from an estimated 12.436 million tons (about
8.6 million tons, basis milled) in 2014-15 due to a likely reduction in
acreage. Conab's production forecast is lower than its December 2015 forecast
of about 11.921 million tons (about 8.2 million tons). Meanwhile, the USDA Post
forecasts Brazil MY 2014-15 (April 2015 - March 2016) milled rice production to
decline to 8.4 million tons, down from USDA's official estimates of about 8.465
million tons due to heavy rains and flooding in the main rice growing region of
Rio Grande do Sul. However, the production is estimated to be above 8.3 million
tons in MY 2013-14. Brazil exported about 1.32 tons of rice in 2015 (January –
December), up about 6% from about 1.24 million tons exported in 2014, according
to data released by the Rice Institute of Rio Grande do Sul (IRGA). Brazil rice
stocks stood at about 115,126 tons in December 2015, down about 3% from about
118,250 tons in November 2015 and down about 67% from about 351,860 tons in
December 2014, according to the Conab.
Guyana exported about 537,334 tons of rice in 2015, up about
7.21% from about 501,208 tons in 2014; local sources quoted the Head of the
Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB). The official noted that Guyana's 2015
paddy rice production increased about 8% to about 1.06 million tons (about
687,784 tons, basis milled) from about 977,289 tons (about 635,238 tons, basis
milled) in 2014. The agency is striving to help farmers boost production
through developing stronger and resilient varieties of rice, according to the
official. Separately, the government of Guyana has advised farmers to delay
rice planting activities for the 2016 crop due to the beginning of the El
Niño-induced dry season. The government of Guyana is also planning to
collaborate with a European rice company as part of its efforts to boost rice
exports to the European countries.
The FAO forecasts Dominican
Republic's 2015 paddy rice production at about 900,000 tons, almost
unchanged at last year's level of about 899,000 tons mainly due to the good
harvest from the 2014-15 main season crop (November 2014 - August 2015).
The Cuban
government is likely to impose price controls on rice to address the concerns
of low production and supplies. Cuban rice production is said to be impacted by
the on-going drought conditions induced by the El Niño. Cuba imports about 50%
of its annual rice consumption needs.
The USDA Post
forecasts Mexico's MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at about
195,000 tons, down from about 261,000 tons in MY 2014-15 and down from USDA's
official estimates of about 197,000 tons due to an expected decline in paddy
rice area.
Five percent broken
rice from Uruguay and Argentina ended the
month of January at about $470 per ton, down about $40 per ton from a
month ago and down about $130 per ton from a year ago.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice
ended the month of January at about $470 per ton, down about $10 per ton from
a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA raised
estimates for U.S. all rice production to about 8.72 million tons from its last
month’s forecast of 8.65 million tons due to an expected increase in acreage
and yields. The USDA raised estimates for the U.S. all rice supplies to about
12.02 million tons, up from its last month's forecast of 11.97 million tons due
to an expected increase in all rice production. Meanwhile the agency lowered
estimates for U.S. all rice imports to about 1.09 million tons, down from its
last month’s forecast of 1.11 million tons based on slower pace to date. The
USDA increased its estimates for 2015-16 U.S. all rice ending stocks to 1.9
million tons, up from last month's forecast of 1.76 million tons due to an
expected increase in the estimates of both long -grain and short- and medium-
ending stocks.
Separately, a University
of Arkansas (UA) economist noted that rice acreage in the U.S. state Arkansas
is likely to increase about 20% in 2016 over last year. Arkansas is the largest
rice producing state in the U.S. and accounts for about 50% of the total U.S.
rice production. It mostly produces long-grain rice.
The U.S. and China
have agreed on a protocol, which reportedly establishes the phytosanitary or
pest control rules necessary to allow U.S. rice into China; the Wall Street
Journal quoted the USA Rice Federation. Meanwhile, the President of the U.S.
Rice Producers Association (RPA) has expressed concern over the future of U.S.
rough rice exports to Mexico if the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement
is successfully completed. The USA Rice Federation President noted that the
U.S. rice industry currently has many opportunities to expand it exports,
Africa
The UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Ghana's 2015 paddy
rice production to decline about 9% to about 551,000 tons from about 604,000
tons in 2014. Ghana imports over a half of its annual rice consumption demand
and the government is planning to increase rice production by about 20% per
annum over the next four years to make Ghana self-sufficient in rice. Ghana
produced about 235,000 tons, basis milled, and imported about 417,000 tons of
rice in 2014 to meet a consumption demand of about 750,000 tons, according to
sources for the Crop Services Directorate.
Liberian rice importers are collaborating with USAID’s Food and
Enterprise Development (FED) project to integrate locally-grown rice into their
supply chains, according to local sources.
The government of Cameroon
has reinstated the 5% customs duty on rice imports under the 2016 Finance Act, according
to local sources. Amid concerns of increasing rice prices following the
reinstating of the customs tax, the Trade Minister reportedly urged traders and
distributors of production chains to maintain prices.
The USDA Post
estimates South Africa's MY 2015-16 rice consumption to
increase about 10% to about 970,000 tons from about 880,000 tons in MY 2014-15
due to drought reflected record corn and wheat prices. Consequently, the Post
estimates South Africa's rice imports to increase about 10% to about 1.1
million tons from about 981,594 tons in MY 2014-15. India and Thailand, supply
more than 92% of South Africa's rice demand.
Europe
The EU
imported about 477,018 tons of rice during the period September 1, 2015 -
January 26, 2016, up about 30% from about 366,417 tons imported during the same
period last year.
The USDA forecasts Italy's
MY 2015-16 rice production at about 1.5 million tons, up about 7.5% from about
1.4 million tons in MY 2014-15 based on the latest figures from the Italian
Rice Association (Enterisi).
Separately, the
Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MIPAAF) has reportedly announced
that paddy acquired from non-seed breeding companies will not be allowed in
Italy. However, the MIPAAF has clarified that the paddy grown in one's own farm
can be used for re-seeding purposes.
Russia's rice exports declined by about 67% to about 35,400 tons
in the first five months of 2015-16 (July - November) from about 102,700 tons
despite the country recording a 5.8% y/y increase in production in 2015.
Russia's major importer Turkey reduced its purchases by about 89% y/y to about
7,400 tons during the five-month period from about 66,000 tons last year. The
USDA Post forecasts Russia's MY 2015-16 (January - December 2016) rice exports
at about 190,000 tons, up about 12% from about 170,000 tons in MY 2014-15, and
unchanged from USDA's official forecasts. The Post forecasts Russia's MY
2015-16 rice imports at about 230,000 tons, up about 35% from about 170,000
tons last year, and unchanged from USDA's official forecasts. The agency
forecasts Russia's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at about 720,000 tons, up
about 5.5% from about 682,000 tons last year.
Other Markets
The FAO forecasts Malaysia's
2015-16 (July - June) rice imports to increase despite an increase in the 2015
rice production due to an expected increase in domestic demand. The agency
forecasts Malaysia's 2015 paddy rice production to increase to about 2.694
million tons, up about 2% from about 2.645 million tons in 2014 due to
increased yields, favorable weather and continued government support to the
rice sector, including subsidies for agricultural inputs.
The FAO forecasts Maldives
2015-16 (January-December) rice imports at about 26,000 tons, up about 3% from
about 25,243 tons in 2014-15. Maldives does not produce rice and is entirely
dependent on imports to meet the domestic demand.
The government of Iraq
procured 54,000 tons of rice from farmers during on on-going 2015-16 harvest
season, which ended on January 07, 2016. Separately, the government of Iraq set
purchase prices for rice at 900,000 dinars (about $821) per ton for
"anber" quality and at 700,000 dinars (about $638) per ton for
2016-17 harvest season. The FAO estimates Iraq's 2015 paddy rice production to
decline about 26% to about 300,000 tons from about 403,000 tons in 2014 due to
heavy rains in major rice growing areas. The FAO estimates Iraq's 2015-16
(July-June) rice imports to be relatively lower than the average 1.3 million
tons imported by the Iraqi Grain Board (IGB) due to the ongoing conflicts in
the country.
The USDA forecasts
2015-16 Egyptian paddy rice production at about 5.8 million
tons, down from about 6.57 million tons, and down from the five-year average of
about 6.2 million tons due to poor yields.
The government of Sri
Lanka is expecting paddy rice output from the 2015-16 Maha crop
(September - March) at about 2.93 million tons, up about 7% from about 2.74
million tons last year. Maha rice crop accounts for about 65% of annual
production in Sri Lanka. Separately, the government of Sri Lanka has hiked the
import duty on rice to about 50 rupees per kilogram (about $348 per ton) from
about 35 rupees per kilogram (about $244 per ton) with effect from January 31,
2016.
Research and
Scientific Development:
Scientists from the
Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) have found that extracts from
seaweeds can boost rice production as well protect rice plants from major pests
when they are treated with slight gamma radiation.
Brunei's Department of
Agriculture and Agrifood has developed a new inbred rice variety called
"Brunei Darussalam Rice 5 (BDR5)" that is drought-tolerant and
high-yielding.
The Philippines
Department of Agriculture (DA) has introduced a new drought resistant and high
yielding rice variety to cope with the effects of El Nino induced dry
conditions.
A new $10 million
state-of-the art facility for studying climate change effects on rice plant
growth has been opened on January 21, 2016, on the campus of the International
Rice Research Institute (IRRI) as part of the IRRI's efforts to achieve food
and nutrition across the globe.
The National Rice
Research Institute (NRRI) in India has developed a new rice variety that is
enriched with higher level of protein compared to the traditional rice
varieties.
Researchers from China
and the U.S. have found that transgenic rice plants can provide survival
strategies under drought conditions.
A team of researchers
from the Cambodia-based French Research Institute for Development have found
that eating fortified rice can increase the risk of hookworm infections.
Environmentalists are
using rice straw to help in the regeneration of natural vegetation in
Australia's mountainous region, which was lost during the construction of a
hydro project in the 1950s.
January
Tenders:
Colombia Rice Export
Quota, Inc (COL-RICE) has announced a tender schedule for the shipping of
94,209 tons of U.S. rice (milled equivalent) to Colombia under the
U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) as per the 2016 tariff rate quota
(TRQ) for U.S.
Syria's General
Foreign Trade Organization (GFTO) has issued a tender to purchase 8,113 tons of
white long-grain rice of third class.
Taiwan's Council of
Agriculture, Agriculture and Forest Agency (AFA) has announced the country
specific quotas (CSQ) for the 2016 Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) rice tender.
http://oryza.com/24828/taiwan-announces-country-specific-quotas-2016-rice-sbs-tenders-says-usda-post
Egypt's state grain
buyer General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) cancelled a tender to
purchase an unspecified amount of rice.
Global
Rice Quotes
February 9th, 2016
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 380-390
↔
Vietnam 5% broken 350-360
↔
India 5% broken 360-370
↔
Pakistan 5% broken 330-340
↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 425-435
↔
U.S. 4% broken 460-470
↔
Uruguay 5% broken 440-450
↔
Argentina 5% broken 430-440
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 355-365
↑
Vietnam 25% broken 340-350
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 310-320
↑
Cambodia 25% broken 405-415
↔
India 25% broken 325-335
↔
U.S. 15% broken 440-450
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd NQ ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 350-360 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 480-490
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 520-530
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 690-700
↔
Vietnam Jasmine 425-435
↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 750-760
↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 325-335
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 320-330 ↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290
↔
Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 260-270
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
↔
U.S. pet food 280-290 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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